ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 4th November

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, November 4. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:30 pm AEDT, after the RBA decision. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Dateline and US Government take Colosseum stay bid to Ninth Circuit

[9:34 am] Dateline Resources and the US Government have each asked a US appeals court to let work resume at the Colosseum gold and rare earths project while they appeal the injunction that halted it.

• The stay motions were lodged with the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit after Friday’s District Court decision left the injunction in place, and will be decided afresh by a three-judge panel

• The injunction was granted on 10-Aug in proceedings brought by the National Parks Conservation Association, requiring Dateline to halt operations at Colosseum until the injunction is lifted or a final judgment is delivered

• The US Government argues it is likely to succeed on appeal and that the injunction irreparably harms national security and the public interest

• Dateline maintains its 1985 Plan of Operations is a valid existing right that survived the creation of the Mojave National Preserve, as recognised by the National Park Service in 1995, 2024 and April 2025

Company page: Dateline Resources (DTR)

Goodman targets 9% EPS growth as data centres make up 79% of WIP

[9:20 am] Goodman says demand for data centre capacity continues to outrun supply, with constraints on power, land and planning expected to drive rental growth across its portfolio.

• Like-for-like NPI growth of 4%, or 6.2% excluding Greater China, where rent reversion remained negative

• Occupancy of 95.5% (96.7% excluding Greater China), with the total portfolio at $90bn and valuations positive in the quarter

• Work in progress of $19.7bn across 51 projects, with data centres 79% of the book and a yield on cost of 8.3%

• WIP is 31% pre-committed, as data centres are commenced before customer contracts are signed, with advanced talks on full-building hyperscale deals at several sites

• Power bank increased to 6.6GW, with 3.6GW secured

• FY27 operating EPS growth target of 9%, with a distribution target of 30c per security

Company page: Goodman Group (GMG)

City Chic flags positive 1H EBIT as discount pullback lifts margins

[9:16 am] Plus-size fashion retailer City Chic expects to deliver positive first-half EBIT, provided sales momentum holds through Black Friday and Christmas.

• Group sales fell 1.7% excluding wholesale for the 18 weeks to 1-Nov, while gross margin dollars rose 2.2%

• Gross margin up 240bps at group level, with comparable gross margin dollars up 5.1% on comparable sales growth of 1.2%

• ANZ stores delivered comparable sales growth of 15.4%, with full-price stores up 19.6% and growth in each of the first 18 weeks of FY27

• ANZ online comparable sales fell 7.4% as promotions were scaled back, though trading gross margin rose 200bps

• USA comparable sales fell 12%, while comparable gross margin dollars rose 7.1% and online trading gross margin jumped 1,060bps

• No drawn debt expected at the end of 1H FY27, with a positive cash balance and its $10m facility in place until March 2028

Company page: City Chic Collective (CCX)

Junior wrap: Altoro hits 25.7% zinc in Spain, Titanium Sands lands Chinese backer

[9:15 am] Altoro Metals led the explorers after its first modern drilling at a historical Spanish zinc mine returned high grades well outside its existing resource.

• Altoro Metals hit 5m at 13.66% zinc at the historical Emilia Mine in northern Spain, including 1m at 25.7%, with the nine-hole program sitting entirely outside its resource

• Titanium Sands raised $500,000 from the Australian arm of Beijing-based Gage Capital at 0.8c a share, a 33% premium, with Gage also taking a first right on capex funding and offtake for its Sri Lankan mineral sands project

• Riversgold will acquire Black Cat Syndicate’s E25/594 licence, lifting its Northern Zone gold project area about 15-fold to 12.82 sq km, with Black Cat becoming a shareholder on completion

• Gold Mountain returned four rock chips above 10,000ppm tungsten (about 1.26% WO₃) at the historical Malhada do Angico mine in Brazil, with over-limit assays pending

• Koonenberry Gold rock chips returned up to 19.05% copper at Breakfast Creek in NSW, where three skarn drill targets have been defined, while maiden drilling at Dunedoo returned only low-grade results

• Olympio Metals grab samples returned up to 1,509g/t silver and 16.41% antimony from historical mine dumps at its Raven project in Montana

Company pages: Altoro Metals (ARO), Titanium Sands (TSL), Riversgold (RGL), Gold Mountain (GMN), Koonenberry Gold (KNB), Olympio Metals (OLY)

Block lifts FY26 guidance as Cash App profit beats

[9:02 am] Block raised its full-year profit guidance, though Cash App inflows of $86 billion came in about 4% short of forecasts. NYSE-listed Block shares are currently up 5.8% after hours.

• Revenue up 10% to $6.72bn vs $6.59bn ests (2% beat)

• Gross profit up 22% to $3.24bn

• Cash App gross profit up 27% to $2.07bn vs $1.97bn ests (5% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 109% to $1.13 vs $1.03 ests (10% beat)

• FY26 adjusted operating income guidance raised to $3.5bn vs $3.22bn ests (9% beat)

• FY27 adjusted operating income outlook of $4.6bn vs $4.25bn ests (8% beat), with gross profit growth of at least 15%

Company page: Block (XYZ)

Super Micro jumps 8% after hours on guidance upgrade

[9:01 am] Super Micro shares rose 8% after hours after the AI server maker lifted its full-year outlook, offering some relief after a 27% slide over the past month on Gartner’s warning that most neocloud companies would fold by 2030.

• Revenue up 298% to a record $19.9bn

• Adjusted EPS up 417% to $1.81 vs $1.62 ests (12% beat)

• Operating cash outflow of $434m for the quarter, with cash and equivalents of $6.9bn

• Q2 revenue guidance of $19.5–21.5bn, with the $20.5bn midpoint 17% above ests of $17.5bn

• FY27 revenue guidance raised to $72–82bn, with the $77bn midpoint 11% above ests of $69.2bn

Goldman says 60% of the S&P 500 is in a bear market

[8:56 am] The S&P 500 is within about 3% of its record high, yet Goldman Sachs trader Bobby Molavi says 60% of its members are in bear market territory as investors turn on AI spending.

• The Magnificent Seven have shed $4tn in market value since 15-Oct, with Molavi saying it’s the first time he can remember earnings not being good enough

• Cloud demand remains strong, with Google Cloud revenue doubling, Azure up 48% and AWS up 39%, its fastest growth in five years

• The four biggest hyperscalers generated $26bn of combined free cash flow, a fraction of past levels, and are leaning more on debt and equity to fund AI

• Amazon’s long-term debt has climbed to $173bn from $66bn in nine months

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7% on Friday, with forward multiples back at AI-cycle lows of around 16 times

• The spread between B and CCC-rated bonds hit 8%, a level reached fewer than five times since 1996, each time with the S&P 500 at least 11.5% below its 52-week high

Source: Bloomberg

AllianceBernstein urges investors to diversify beyond AI

[8:56 am] AllianceBernstein head of equities Nelson Yu is telling clients to build portfolios less reliant on tech megacaps as doubts grow over returns on AI spending.

• Yu favours defence, healthcare and international equities, along with small caps and value stocks

• The S&P 500 Health Care Index has gained almost 10% since the Nasdaq 100 peaked on 6-Oct, while the Nasdaq 100 has fallen 9.5%

• Yu says healthcare offers exposure to AI through pharma and biotech names, while traditionally holding up when growth stocks sell off

• Japan, Europe and Latin America stand out internationally, on governance reforms, quality industrials and consumer growth respectively

• The Russell 2000 is flat since 6-Oct while the S&P 500 is down almost 3%, with small caps showing signs of stabilising

Source: Bloomberg

UBS eyes year-end squeeze once midterms are cleared

[8:55 am] UBS says the midterm elections could be the last hurdle before a year-end rally, with history suggesting the result shapes stocks for a few months at most.

• The S&P 500 has returned an average 1.9% in November since 1950, its strongest month, and UBS says low hedge fund net exposure could amplify a rally

• A decisive Democratic sweep could weigh on financials and data centre names, with UBS recommending November puts on the XLF financials ETF after the sector rallied about 6% in October

• UBS sees opportunity in renewables, where positioning is near a one-year low and a Democratic win could act as a catalyst

• Prediction market Polymarket gave Democrats a 76% chance of winning both chambers on Tuesday morning, with a Democratic House and Republican Senate at 19%

• After the seven midterms that handed Democrats Congress under a Republican president, the S&P 500 rose an average 11% over three months and was higher every time

• The S&P 500 was higher a year after all 20 midterms since 1946, averaging about 14%, though it sank nearly 15% by Christmas Eve after the 2018 vote

Source: Bloomberg

CrowdStrike rises on AI kill switch and $495m startup deals

[8:54 am] CrowdStrike shares rose 1.2% after the cybersecurity company launched a kill switch for rogue AI agents and agreed to buy two AI security startups for a combined $495 million.

• The kill switch sits in Falcon Guardian, letting security teams terminate an AI agent that strays from its intended behaviour, block it from relaunching and cut its network access

• CrowdStrike will acquire Fiddler AI, which builds tools to help companies monitor their AI systems

• Dreadnode tests AI systems for security vulnerabilities, and will let Falcon continuously scan AI models, apps and agents before deployment

• Cybersecurity names have benefited from agentic AI driving demand for verification and authentication, despite early-year fears AI would disrupt their business models

Source: Yahoo Finance

Trump says US close to trade deal with Canada

[8:53 am] President Donald Trump says the US is close to striking a trade deal with Canada after months of tit-for-tat tariffs.

• Trump told Fox News a deal with Canada would come very soon

• Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Sunday they had discussed a deal, which Trump said would be great for US farmers

• Carney said both teams would work over the coming weeks to deliver the outcome

• Tariffs on Canada have become an issue in northern border states such as Michigan and Maine ahead of the midterms

Source: Reuters

Oil flat as US and Iran weigh peace proposals

[8:53 am] Oil whipsawed as Washington and Tehran reviewed fresh proposals from Qatari mediators, even as limited US strikes kept escalation risks alive.

• Brent swung in a more than $6 range during the session, pushing some oil volatility gauges to their highest since late July

• Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran and expect feedback from both sides within two days, with a diplomat describing the talks as positive

• Iran’s national security chief said the US response to its demands had so far been unsatisfactory, which helped futures pare losses

• The US struck targets on Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump calling it a minor attack and Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying Hormuz flows were unaffected

• Tehran wants the US naval blockade lifted, sanctions eased and frozen assets released, while Washington is demanding nuclear concessions

• Exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait rose 10% to more than 15m barrels a day in October, and Dubai’s nearest timespread has flipped into contango

Treasury yields climb as job openings top forecasts

[8:50 am] A volatile session for bond yields, which finished broadly higher but off session highs.

• The 10-year Treasury yield rose 5 bps to 4.96% (down from a 12 bp spike to 5.03%), while Germany’s 10-year added 4 bps to 3.33% and the UK’s climbed 7 bps to 5.26%

• US job openings rose to 7.5m in September from a revised 7.2m in August vs 7.1m ests

• Quits rose to 3.4m vs 3.09m ests, while layoffs held at 1.6m and the hiring rate edged up to 3.4% from 3.3% in August

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%, sitting near the year high it hit in October as hot inflation data fuelled bets on further Fed tightening

AMD jumps 9% after hours as Q4 guidance tops ests

[8:49 am] AMD shares rose about 9% in after-hours trade as Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Oracle began running workloads on the chipmaker’s first Helios AI racks.

• Revenue up 45% to $13.40bn vs $13.09bn ests (2% beat)

• Data centre revenue up 97% to a record $8.55bn vs $8.27bn ests (3% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 74% to $2.09 vs $1.95 ests (7% beat)

• Free cash flow down 64% to $554m vs $1.05bn ests (47% miss)

• Q4 revenue guidance of $16.5–17.5bn, with the $17bn midpoint 5% above ests of $16.23bn, as CEO Lisa Su expects growth to accelerate further as Helios and Venice production scales

• A $1.1bn non-cash charge tied to the OpenAI and Meta deals cut GAAP EPS by $0.66, with both customers holding warrants over up to 320m AMD shares at $0.01 each

Chip rebound lifts Nasdaq as Dow slips on US election day

[8:48 am] The Nasdaq rose 0.8% as chipmakers bounced back from a fresh bear market, though most S&P 500 members finished lower as Americans headed to the polls.

• The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,568, the Nasdaq gained 0.8% and the Dow fell 0.4%

• The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 2.6% after Monday’s close left it about 22% below its 6-Oct high, its second bear market since June

• Chip stocks have climbed in all eight midterm cycles since 1994, measured from the October close to the following June, though they first fell another 11% in 2002 and 2018

• Apple fell after warning memory costs will keep rising, while Palantir dropped as much as 7.3% on an outlook pointing to slower sales growth despite beating ests

• Shopify dipped 8.0% after Q3 revenue of $3.74bn missed ests for the first time since 2022, with subscription revenue of $836m vs $850m ests (2% miss)

Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 34 pts (-0.38%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Chipmakers led a tech rebound that lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as Americans voted in the midterms, even as Apple and most S&P 500 members lagged

  • S&P 500 (+0.36%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.33%)

  • Nasdaq (+0.83%), Dow (-0.38%), Russell 2000 (+0.23%)

• Oil whipsawed as the US and Iran weighed fresh mediator proposals, although Tehran said it would not accept diplomacy based on coercion. Brent settled flat at US$104.5 a barrel, but whipsawed between US$107.2 and US$100.8

• Meta drew up to US$58bn of orders for a US$15bn US dollar bond sale, a fresh test of investor appetite for Big Tech's AI debt