ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 24th September

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, September 24. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 at session lows

[2:30 pm] That's all for Wednesday. A pretty heavy session, with the CPI print dragging stocks to fresh intraday lows.

ASX 200 currently hovering session lows, down 1.05%. It seems like every time the market musters some strength to try and cross the 20-day moving average, something whips it right back below.

Banks are trading sharply lower, notably Westpac (-2.8%), NAB (-2.3%), Macquarie (-2.2%), ANZ (-1.9%) and CBA (-1.4%).

Overall, the inflation data doesn't seem to detract from current market drivers. The trimmed mean CPI, which strips out volatile items, actually declined to 2.6 per cent in August from 2.7 per cent in July. Consensus did not expect a September cut anyway, and most economists continue to see three rate cuts by mid-2026.

It'll be interesting to see if we see more weakness as we close out the seasonally weak month of September, alongside some other headwinds such as quarter-end rebalancing dynamics and corporate buyback blackouts in the US.

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The ASX has some work cut out for it

[1:01 pm] The RBA rates ASX clearing and settlement facilities as failing to meet expectations for critical market infrastructure, with "not observed" ratings continuing for ASX Clear and ASX Settlement on Operational Risk Standards following the December 2024 CHESS batch settlement incident.

Here are the key takeaways from the RBA assessment:

• Multiple facilities received "partly observed" ratings across key areas including Risk Management Framework, Governance, Credit Risk, Settlement Finality, and Operational Risk, indicating systemic deficiencies rather than isolated issues

• The RBA has issued specific remediation requirements including fixing risk appetite gaps, ensuring adequate resourcing for risk transformation plans, reviewing business continuity arrangements, and improving data controls for financial risk models

• RBA Assistant Governor Brad Jones warned that "further regulatory responses" will be considered if ASX doesn't demonstrate "meaningful progress over the coming year" in strengthening governance and risk culture

ASX shares are down 1.1% to the lowest level since July 2024.

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Trump administration seeking stake of up to 10% in Lithium Americas

[12:58 pm] A Reuters article notes that the Trump administration is seeking an equity stake along with assurances that GM will commit to buying all of the project’s first-phase lithium output and part of the second. At present, GM only holds the right, not the obligation, to make such purchases.

A White House official said, “President Trump supports this project. He wants it to succeed and also be fair to taxpayers. But there’s no such thing as free money.”

Source: Reuters

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Thinking out loud about CPI

[12:56 pm] Some interesting points from a weekend note by AMP's Shane Oliver. In summary:

• The RBA won't automatically follow Fed rate cuts, but Fed easing could create pressure for more aggressive RBA cuts than currently expected if it leads to significant Australian dollar strength

• Money markets now price the Fed cutting more aggressively than the RBA, which would push US short-term rates below Australia's cash rate, historically this interest rate differential has driven AUD appreciation

• A materially stronger Australian dollar would dampen both growth and inflation, potentially forcing the RBA to cut rates more than the market anticipates to offset the tightening financial conditions

• Base case forecast remains for 25 bp RBA cuts in November, February and May, but the Fed's easing cycle introduces upside risk to the magnitude of cuts if currency or growth impacts materialise

In other words, as long as our inflation data doesn't go berserk, the rate outlook largely depends on what the Fed is going to do.

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First take on CPI print

[12:51 pm] So headline inflation was a little hot last month, at 3.0% vs. 2.8% in July and above market expectations of 2.9%.

Here are some of the key takeaways from analysts:

• IG's Tony Sycamore: "The key takeaway from today’s inflation numbers is that while the headline number has risen further away from the 1.9% low it hit in June, the underlying measure of inflation the trimmed mean has eased lower towards the middle of the RBA’s 2-3% target range ... Today’s inflation updates which follow’s last week’s soft jobs report, argues for the RBA to continue its cautious rate cutting cycle. We expect the RBA to keep rates on hold in September, before cutting the cash rate by 25bp in November 2025, bringing it to 3.35%."

• AMP's Shane Oliver: "We expected the RBA to hold in Sept and that remains the case but the slowing trend in trimmed mean infl (+2.6%yoy) is consistent with a Nov cut."

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ASX 200 coming off lows

[12:49 pm] Alright I'm back from lunch. Will punch out a few more tidbits before we call it a day. A relatively quiet session aside from the slightly hot CPI print.

ASX 200 was already down around 0.70% heading into the CPI print, dipped as much as 1.15% by 12:02 pm AEST and now down 0.95%.

ASX 200 intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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ASX now down 1% for day

[12:02 pm] After opening lower this morning, the ASX 200 has continued its slide after the release of August inflation data.

Energy remains the only sector still in the green today, with Financials leading the selloff, down 1.58%.

By Tom Stelzer

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$AUD, bond yields rise on inflation data

[11:57 am] The Aussie dollar has jumped to US66.07c after the annual CPI indicator rose to 3% for August. 10-year government bond yields were also up 3 basis points to 4.29%.

It's the highest annual inflation rate since July 2024, but the market may find comfort in the fact the RBA's preferred inflation measure - the trimmed mean - is well within the RBA's target band of 2 to 3%.

Markets are now suggesting there's only a 9% chance of a rate cut at the RBA's next meeting on 30 September.

By Tom Stelzer

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Annual inflation at 3% for August, up from 2.8%

[11:36 am] The ABS has released the latest CPI data for the 12 months to August. Inflation is up to 3.0%, from 2.8% in July.

Housing, food and beverages, and alcohol and tobacco were the biggest contributors to the higher read.

Annual trimmed mean inflation, which the RBA pays close attention to, was at 2.6% in August, down from 2.7% in July.

By Tom Stelzer

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ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade

[11:13 am] A pretty quiet session so far, not much newsflow. Index just pulling back after a three-day win streak. A few odd names ticking higher, notably lithium and energy stocks. Growth and gold stocks are key themes leading to the downside.

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All sectors except Energy lower

[10:20 am] Breadth is very weak this morning, with 163 S&P/ASX 200 constituents (82%) trading lower or breakeven. All sectors except Energy are red, with defensives like Utilities, Real Estate and Telcos outperforming on a relative basis.

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)

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ASX 200 gives back gains

[10:16 am] A fairly weak open, with the ASX 200 down 0.66% and snapping a three-day win streak.

The Small Ords is also down 0.74%, but remains in a healthy uptrend.

S&P/ASX Small Ords daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Gold higher, fades from best levels

[9:37 am] Gold prices hit yet another record high overnight, up 0.52% to US$3,764/oz, though faded session highs of 1.2% (US$3,791).

Despite the higher gold prices, we're starting to see fatigue in gold miners, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF down 0.1% overnight.

Gold daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Liontown appoints Greg Jason as CFO

[9:31 am] Liontown has appointed Greg Jason as CFO, effective 18 December, 2025.

Jason previously served as the interim CFO and head of joint ventures at Pilbara Minerals, before joining TLEA, the joint venture company between Tianqi Lithium and IGO, as CFO in 2024.

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Tuas FY25 results

[9:30 am] Tuas' FY25 results read well at face value and broadly ahead of Citi estimates. Note that all figures in Singapore dollars:

• Revenue up 29% to $151.3m vs. $148.6m ests (1.8% beat)

• EBITDA up 38% to $68.4m vs. $66.4m ests (3.0% beat)

• Net profit of $6.9m vs. net loss of $4.4m a year ago and $6.2m ests (11.3% beat)

Not much outlook commentary besides FY26 capex between $50-55 million and further subscriber growth.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Tuas (TUA)

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Lynas has been unstoppable

[9:15 am] Lynas completed a share purchase plan, which raised $182 million vs. its initial target of $75 million. There's clearly massive demand for both Lynas and exposure to the rare earth sector.

Last month, Lynas completed a $750 million capital raise, which "attracted significant demand and support from both existing shareholders and new investors." The raise was priced at $13.25 per new share or a 10% discount to its last traded price.

Despite the discount and dilution, Lynas rallied 8.0% on Monday to $16.52.

Lynas daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Powell reiterates last week's comments

[9:07 am] Speaking to the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce, Fed Chair Powell largely reiterated last week's statements around the state of the economic and monetary policy. The key takeaways include:

• Powell signals near-term inflation risks are tilted upside while employment risks lean downside, justifying the recent 25bp cut while acknowledging no "risk-free path" for monetary policy ahead

• Powell expects tariff increases to show up as "somewhat higher prices over coming quarters" rather than all at once, providing guidance on the gradual inflationary impact of trade policy changes

• Recent fedspeak shows divergent views on pace of easing, with Governor Bowman flagging the risks of falling behind the curve on labour market deterioration, while Chicago's Goolsbee favors gradual cuts and cautions against aggressive easing

• Atlanta Fed's Bostic anticipates "more inflation still to come" while noting employment risk sentiment has "notably deteriorated," highlighting the Fed's dual mandate tensions

Source: Federal Reserve

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ResMed BofA Global Healthcare Conference takeaways

[9:02 am] ResMed presented at the Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference. Nothing price sensitive, but a few interesting takeaways:

• ResMed expects GLP-1 users to be 11% more likely to start and remain on CPAP therapy over two years, with no significant churn observed between GLP-1 and CPAP users, creating a positive tailwind for patient acquisition

• The company is targeting 25-100 basis points of above-market growth through demand generation, primary care physician education, and omnichannel strategies, while maintaining R&D investment at 6-7% of revenue

• Gross margin guidance of 61-63% with plans for 50 basis points annual improvement through 2030 driven by supply chain optimisation, while SG&A remains at 19-20% of revenue

• Management anticipates increased patient flow from GLP-1 drug advertising and consumer tech wearables adoption over the next 1-5 quarters, supporting organic growth momentum

• Global device market expected to maintain mid-single digit growth with masks and software segments growing in the high-single digits, while competitive re-entry is not expected to materially impact the business

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US government shutdown looms

[9:00 am] Trump cancelled Thursday's planned Oval Office meeting with Democratic leaders Schumer and Jeffries, demanding they drop healthcare subsidy and Medicaid cut reversal demands before any shutdown negotiations, escalating government closure risks.

Republicans need at least seven Democratic Senate votes to pass funding legislation, giving the minority party significant leverage despite Trump's attempt to set pre-conditions for negotiations.

Democrats are insisting on permanent Obamacare subsidy extensions, Medicaid cut reversals, and restrictions on unilateral White House spending cancellations as part of any shutdown deal, rejecting the House GOP's clean funding extension through 21 November.

A prolonged shutdown lasting a month could reduce quarterly GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points according to Bloomberg Economics, though short-term impacts on equity markets and major contractors would be limited.

Source: Bloomberg

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Sweden's Riksbank cut rates

[8:56 am] Sweden's Riksbank issued its third rate cut this year, down 25 bps to 1.75%. However, signaled no further cuts through 2028, marking what's likely the end of its easing cycle after delivering 225 basis points of cuts since May 2024.

The central bank revised 2025 growth forecasts lower to 0.9% from 1.2% but raised 2026 expectations to 2.7% from 2.4%, indicating confidence in economic recovery momentum despite current weakness.

Recent inflation above the 2% target is viewed as transitory by policymakers, with companies' pricing plans declining and krona strength helping to contain price pressures going forward.

Source: Bloomberg

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Lithium Americas shares surge on potential government investment

[8:52 am] The Trump administration is reviewing a record $2.3 billion Energy Department loan to Lithium Americas for Nevada's Thacker Pass mine, amid concerns about the project's ability to compete against cheap Chinese lithium.

The news drove Lithium Americas shares 6.9% lower overnight. However, the stock surged 74% after hours amid speculation that the US government is considering an equity stake in the company.

The Energy Department is still pressuring General Motors, which holds a 38% stake and invested $625 million in the project, to sign a binding offtake agreement to secure demand for the mine's output.

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ASX IPOs also picking up pace

[8:46 am] The ASX IPO calendar is also looking relatively busy, with 8 companies set to list by the end of October.

September:

• DPM Metals (18th)

• Revolution Private Credit Income Trust (22nd)

• Everlast Minerals (23rd)

• Golden Globe Resources (30th)

• Temas Resources (30th)

• Ryman Healthcare (29th)

October:

• PC Gold (7th)

• Nexsen (7th)

• Desert Minerals (13th)

• Golden Dragon Mining (21st)

• Sentinel Metals (28th)

November

• Black Pearl Group (28th)

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Best month for US IPO volume since 2021

[8:44 am] September 2025 generated $7.6 billion in US IPO volume, making it the busiest month since November 2021, with newly-public companies delivering a weighted-average return of 17%.

The year-to-date IPO total of $32 billion is approaching the pre-pandemic decade average of $35.3 billion for the same period, and has already surpassed all of 2024's IPO activity.

Market selectivity is evident as investors remain "disciplined", while successes like Klarna and Netskope drove the rally, disappointments like StubHub and Gemini Space Station show not all deals are getting "universal acceptance".

JPMorgan's ECM head notes the "bifurcated" investor appetite as healthy, with most September IPOs pricing within range and trading above their debut levels, suggesting proper market functioning rather than indiscriminate buying.

Source: Bloomberg

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S&P 500 rallies past analyst targets

[8:42 am] The S&P 500 is trading nearly 3% above Wall Street's average year-end target of 6,486. Only 2024 and 1999 have shown similar gaps between analyst forecasts and actual market performance at this point in the year.

Earnings growth expectations have been revised sharply upward since July, from 7.1% to 9.4% for 2025, driven by surprisingly resilient profit margins despite Trump's tariffs.

Strategists have been caught off-guard by the "unrelenting nature" of the 34% rally from April lows, with many firms like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank repeatedly upgrading targets throughout the year.

Historical Fed data shows stocks have been higher one year later in all 16 instances over the past 50 years when rates were cut while the S&P 500 was within 1% of record highs, supporting the current bullish setup.

Source: Bloomberg

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Good morning!

[8:32 am] ASX 200 futures are down 31pts (-0.35%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

• Major US benchmarks broadly lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.55% and Nasdaq slipping 0.95%

• Breadth was positive, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 up 0.12%

• Defensive sectors outperformed, with Real Estate (+0.81%), Utilities (+0.54%) and Staples (+0.36%) higher

• Oil prices snapped a four-day losing streak amid a potential Russian diesel export ban and Ukrainian attacks on Moscow’s oil refineries

• Gold rallied as much as 1.2% to US$3,791 but faded early gains to close slightly higher

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.