ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 20th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, August 20. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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Choppy day for markets

[2:03 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 is slightly higher, up 17 pts (+0.20%), trading around the midpoint of today's range (+0.61%/-0.43%).

Much like the overnight session, defensive sectors like Real Estate, Utilities, Financials and Staples are leading the charge. Though Discretionary is also finding strength from Wesfarmers (+1.5%) and The Lottery Corp (+7.8%).

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)

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RBNZ cuts 25 bps

[1:49 pm] The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 25 bps to 3.0%, in-line with market expectations.

Interestingly, two members voted for an even larger 50 bp cut amidst concerns about “the negative consequences of global policy uncertainty”.

"While the more cautious cutters prevailed, this is a big shift in tone around the balance of risks since the July meeting where the RBNZ held rates steady. The RBNZ’s projected OCR track has dropped ~25-30bp to a new lower “terminal” of 2.55% with the track also suggesting 2 more cuts this year as the central case," noted RBC Capital Markets’ chief economist Su-Lin Ong.

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Chart of the day with Chris Conway

[1:46 pm] In a previous role, I ran the technical trading beat for a popular newsletter and I was taught technical analysis by none other than Market Index’s Carl Capolingua, and my good friend Stuart McPhee (author of Trading in a Nutshell). Over coming weeks, I’ll teach you the criteria that I look for but, like Carl, I’m a momentum trader.

Today’s Chart of the Day is AMP. The bane of many long-term investors, the chart is showing some signs of life. First and foremost, the EMAs that I use are in the right configuration – showing trend alignment across multiple timeframes.

From there, I note a big resistance level just below $1.80, and a pennant pattern which has formed following the attempted break higher earlier this month. Such pennant patterns often precede a big move – either higher or lower – but typically in the direction from which the price action came. In other words, the share price was rallying prior to the formation of the pennant, so theory tells us that the price should break higher on the way out.

We’ve also seen increased average volume over the past few months, showing more people interested in the stock, whilst the RSI is not in overbought territory. From here, I would like to see a sharp move higher, with the price action punching through $1.80 and extending away. If such a move were to occur, it could suggest further upside as momentum picks up.

Please note that Chart of the Day is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation. Always do your own research | Source: Commsec

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Breville FY25 earnings call summary

[1:25 pm] While Breville's results were in line with expectations and EBIT growth came in around the top end of guidance, the FY26 picture isn't as clear.

• Planned channel weighting changes in 2026 to mitigate tariff impacts.

• Focus on long-term market strategy, not participating in Chinese subsidies program.

• Short-term P&L fluctuation from manufacturing diversification, with aim for cost-effective localisation.

• Tariff-related cost increases will persist into FY2027 without further escalation.

Higher costs and earnings uncertainty meant BRG shares have fallen 2.3% today so far.

As has been the case throughout reporting season, we'll be bringing you fund manager insights on all the day's biggest results, including Breville, over at Livewire Markets.

By Tom Stelzer

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Lottery Corp FY25 earnings call summary

[12:55 pm] Here's the big takeaways from The Lottery Corp's results:

• Revenue of $3.75bn (1.3% beat)

• Underlying EBITDA at $749.3m (in-line)

• Final dividend of $0.085 per share, fully franked

• FY total dividends of $0.165 per share

And here are some of the insights from the TLC earnings call:

• Expects 50-75% retention following Powerball price increases and positions Powerball as "premium" game.

• Growth CapEx is focused on enhancing customer experience and engagement.

• No new guidance on OpEx, but updates expected at mid-year financials.

• Focus is on keeping costs below revenue growth.

TLC was one of the best performing ASX 200 stocks this morning, up over 8%.

By Tom Stelzer

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: The Lottery Corp (LTC)

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Big tech leads US stock market down

[12:27 pm] Taking a break from the local market for a second.

Over in the US, the S&P 500 lost 0.59% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.46% after weakness from big tech names. Nvidia fell 3.5%, with fellow chipmaker AMD down 5.4%.

Palantir also slumped 9% in Tuesday's trading, having reached an eye-watering forward PE ratio of 245.

Attention now turns to Fed chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Wyoming on Friday, which could tell investors which way the wind is blowing on US interest rates.

Markets are expecting a Fed rate cut next month, amidst Powell's ongoing tussle with President Trump over the Fed's stance on rates.

By Tom Stelzer

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CSL mounts small comeback

[12:15 pm] CSL has managed to bounce off intraday lows (-7.6% to $208.35), currently down just 1.8% ($221.44). There's clearly some buying appetite around the low $200 level. The biotech giant logged its largest one-day fall on record (since listing in the 90s) on Tuesday, down 16.9% after its FY26 guidance missed market expectations.

CSL intraday chart | Source: TradingView

But is this a dead cat bounce? Are the healthcare giant's best days behind it, as Livewire's Chris Conway asked in yesterday's CSL results coverage?

By Tom Stelzer

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Iluka earnings call highlights

[12:02 pm] Here are some of the key takeaways from Iluka Resources' results:

• Eneabba refinery remains within A$1.7–1.8bn capex guidance, with A$270m contingency.

• Heavy rare earth demand is strong, but zircon market remains soft amid global demand weakness and Indonesian supply disruptions.

• Prioritising mineral sands inventory drawdown over SR1 restart.

Iluka is now down 8.2% on the day after revenue and EBITDA came in lower on weaker-than-anticipated rare earth prices.

By Tom Stelzer

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Transurban rallies on in-line result

[11:07 am] Transurban shares are up 2.8% ($14.39) on a broadly in-line set of numbers for FY25, including:

• Total revenue up 5% to $3.79bn vs. $3.82bn ests (1% miss)

• Operating EBITDA up 7% to $2.84bn vs. $2.84bn ests (in-line)

• Free cash flow (ex-CR) down 7% to $2.00bn

• FY26 distribution guidance of 69 cps (in-line)

It's worth noting that defensive stocks rallied overnight, with S&P 500 sectors like Real Estate (+1.8%), Staples (+1.00%) and Utilities (+0.99%) outperforming the broader market. This may be driving positive flows into names like Transurban.

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Things we missed this morning

[10:40 am] Too many announcements, so little time. Here are a few higher-profile things that I missed this morning.

• Magellan (+6.8%) rallied on a strong FY25 beat, with operating NPAT of $159.7m vs. $155.3m ests, alongside a final dividend of 25.9 cps plus special dividend of 21 cps.

• Service Stream (+2.7%) after reporting some solid numbers for FY25, with NPATA up 36.7% to $65.8m vs. $66.5m ests. FY26 guidance noted expectations of further growth, supported by a strong order book, improved utility margin performance and growing infrastructure investment,

• Bendigo Bank (-1.4%) flagged a $539.5m goodwill impairment charge, will be flagged in upcoming FY25 result. The company says this will not affect its CET1 ratio nor its ability to pay a dividend.

• Superloop (-8.4%) reported FY25 underlying EBITDA of $92.2m vs. prior guidance of $91m. Selloff catalyst unclear, though the stock was trading near record levels heading into the result. Other numbers of interest include net profit of $1.2m (vs. $14.7m loss a year ago), FY26 commnetary noted 17,000 net new consumer customer added to 18 Aug-25.

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade

[10:24 am] The Lottery Corp is surging on strong FY25 earnings. Magellan, Transurban and APA Group also moving higher from results. Meanwhile James Hardie smashed on poor Q1 results and full-year guidance, Yancoal also sold off on weaker-than-expected interim dividend.

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James Hardie 1Q26 earnings call highlights

[9:50 am] James Hardie just wrapped up its first quarter earnings call. Here are the key takeaways:

• Q1 aligned with FY26 guidance as single-family new construction weak, while multifamily/R&R held steady.

• Inventory destocking expected to weigh into Q2–Q3 as customers stay cautious.

• Cost discipline in place: headcount freeze, yield focus, manufacturing optimisation.

• Long-term growth tied to AZEK integration (cost synergies, outdoor living expansion) and material conversion opportunities.

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Breville Group FY25 earnings: Strong, but FY26 uncertainty

[9:45 am] A mixed result from Breville, with FY25 numbers slightly ahead but concerning FY26 commentary.

• Revenue up 10.9% to $1.69bn vs. $1.68bn ests (0.4% beat)

• Gross profit up 11.4% to $620.5m vs. $616.3m ests (0.7% beat)

• Gross profit margin up 17 bps to 36.6% vs. 36.5% ests (10 bp beat)

• Underlying EBIT up 10.2% to $204.6m vs. $202m ests (1.3% beat)

• NPAT up 14.7% to $135.9m vs. $133.4m ests (1.9% beat)

• Full-year dividend up 12.1% to 37 cps vs. 36.7 cps ests (0.8% beat)

"A solid FY25 with EBIT growth of 10% above the top end of guidance. Tariff impacts in FY25 were largely mitigated by BRG's well executed inventory pull-forward strategy but heading into FY26 the company is guiding to a material step up in costs based on the current US tariff regime," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Wei-Weng Chen.

Breville's outlook commentary noted: "Based on the current fact set, the Group will face a significant input cost increase in FY26 and FY27 for US-based sales. In the face of this challenge, we are actively pursuing cost mitigants including FOB reductions, diversified sourcing locations, distribution channel adjustments and taking price where appropriate."

Though consensus does assume minimal EBIT growth in FY26, currently sitting at $207 million vs. FY25 EBIT of $205 million.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Breville Group (BRG)

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Southern Cross Electrical Engineering FY25 results

[9:37 am] Some large year-on-year numbers coming out of SXE, a stock that recently broke out to record highs after trading sideways for a little over 12 months.

• Revenue up 45.2% to $801.5m vs. $793.0m ests (1.1% beat)

• EBITDA up 36.6% to $54.8m vs. $54.2m ests (1.1% beat)

• NPAT up 44.5% to $31.7m vs. $33.5m ests (5.4% miss)

• Year-end cash up 5.3% to $86.8m

• Order book interestingly slipped to $685m vs. last year's record $720m

• Final dividend 5.0 cps, total 7.5 cps, up 25.0% year-on-year

• FY26 EBITDA guidance $65m-$68m (midpoint $66.5m) vs. $70.2m ests (5.3% miss)

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE)

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Cleanaway Waste FY25 results: Somewhat in-line

[9:32 am] A few soft spots from Cleanaway. The stock has been trading pretty much sideways since May 2021 but still fetches a PE of 40x.

• Gross revenue up 2.5% to $3,850.7m vs. $3,960.0m ests (2.8% miss)

• Underlying EBIT up 14.6% to $411.8m vs. $411.0m ests (0.2% beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 16.1% to $198.0m vs. $203.2m ests (2.6% miss)

• Free cash flow down to $270.2m

• Final dividend 3.2 cps, total 6.0 cps, up 20.0% (in-line with UBS ests)

• FY26 underlying EBIT guidance $470m-$500m (midpoint $485m) vs. $493.8m ests (1.8% miss)

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Cleanaway Waste (CWY)

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Emeco FY25 results: Solid growth

[9:26 am] Not the most high-profile company, but one with interesting fundamentals. As noted in a Livewire article by Ben Richards:

"NTA has been steadily rising, driven by returns on Emeco’s mining equipment fleet that exceed depreciation, alongside strong cash flow that’s being used to reduce debt and improve business quality. In 1H25, NTA increased 5% to $1.28, and we forecast it to reach $1.35 by FY26 — versus a current share price of $0.75." (share price is now 96 cents)

Here are the key numbers for FY25:

• Group revenue up 7% to $785.4m vs. $790.4m ests (0.6% miss)

• Operating EBITDA up 7% to $301.1m vs. $299.3m ests (0.6% beat)

• Operating EBIT up 16% to $145.7m

• Operating NPAT up 22% to $84.5m vs. $77.4m ests (9.2% beat)

Looking ahead, the report noted continuing levels of production activity in the mining sector and "moderate earnings growth, significant free cash flow and substantial further deleveraging."

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Emeco (EHL)

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APA Group FY25 results: Turnaround continues

[9:19 am] Some solid numbers out of APA Group, a stock that spent most of 2022 to early 2025 trending lower. Found some momentum off the back of February's half-year result, up around 30% since.

• Underlying EBITDA up 6.4% to $2,015m vs. $2,010m ests (0.25% beat)

• Statutory NPAT (ex-items) up 8.4% to $129m vs. $127.8m ests (0.94% beat)

• Capital expenditures $964m vs. $963.1m ests (0.09% beat)

• Free cash flow up marginally to $1,083m vs. $955.9m ests (13.30% beat)

• FY26 distribution guidance 58.0 cps (1.75% increase over FY25 57.0 cps)

• FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance $2,120m-$2,200m (midpoint $2,160m) vs. $2,160m ests (in line)

"The result was underpinned by a strong performance from APA’s gas transmission and storage business, a full year contribution from the Pilbara Energy System (PES) business, contributions from newly commissioned assets, inflation-linked tariff escalation and improved underlying EBITDA margins reflecting robust asset performance and targeted cost reduction initiatives," the company said in a statement.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: APA Group (APA)

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Iluka Resources 1H25 results: No surprises

[9:12 am] Iluka's half-year should contain no surprises given recent quarterly, which highlighted strong zircon/rutile production, offset by weaker-than-expected prices. The key numbers for the half include:

• Mineral sands revenue down 8% to $558m

• Mineral sands EBITDA down 13% to $218m

• Underlying Group EBITDA down 12% to $233m

• Profit for the period down 31% to $92m

• Interim dividend down 50% to 2 cps

• Net debt of $502m vs. net debt of $115m (31-Dec-24)

Main focus for Iluka will be its rare earths project, with management noting:

• "In rare earths, export controls implemented by China in April have led to a heightened emphasis on the need to diversify supply. This was followed by a historic agreement between the US Department of Defense and MP Materials ..."

• "The Eneabba refinery is scheduled for commissioning in 2027 and will produce separated light and heavy rare earth oxides, with the latter a key point of differentiation over other sources of Western world supply."

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Iluka Resources (ILU)

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James Hardie Q1 results: Ugly, very ugly

[9:07 am] James Hardie reported a broadly weaker-than-expected 1Q26 and full-year guidance, with management flagging: "conservatively expecting to benefit from recent homebuilder exclusivity wins and new product launches more so in FY27 and beyond, rather than in the back half of FY26 as previously planned."

Here are the key numbers for the first quarter (Jun-Q, all figures in US dollars):

• Net sales down 9% to $899.9m vs. $962m ests (6.4% miss)

• Adjusted EBITDA down 21% to $225.5m

• Adjusted net income down 29% to $126.9m vs. $145.5m ests (12.7% miss)

• Adjusted EPS down 28% to 29 cps vs. 35 cps ests (17.1% miss)

• Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.05-1.15bn vs. $1.33bn ests (17.2% miss at midpoint)

James Hardie is dual-listed on the NYSE, with the stock currently down 21% in after hours.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: James Hardie (JHX)

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Yancoal 1H25 results: A dividend for ants?

[8:58 am] Yancoal is (or was) one of the market's favourite dividend stocks, delivering double-digit yields back in 2022-23. Though today's result may shock its yield-hungry investor base.

• ROM coal production up 16% to 32.2m tonnes (100% basis)

• Attributable saleable coal production up 11% to 18.9m tonnes; annualising above guidance midpoint

• Revenue down 15% to $2.68bn, driven by 15% lower realised coal price ($149/t) and 2% lower attributable sales volume due to weather-related transport delays

• Operating cash cost down 8% to $93/t (ex. royalties)

• Cash balance of $1.8bn at 30 June 2025

• Interim dividend $82m or 6.2 cps

Its interesting for Yancoal to issue a mere 6.2 cps dividend (~1% yield), given its outsized $1.8 billion cash position.

"The payout ratio is consistent with the dividend policy of the Company constitution and the retained cash, along with debt market access, provides considerable capacity to consider value-accretive growth initiatives," noted management.

This time last year (21-Aug-24), Yancoal skipped its interim dividend to pursue M&A opportunities, resulting in a 14.5% one-day selloff.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Yancoal (YAL)

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Home Depot Q2 earnings miss but comp growth accelerating

[8:50 am] Home Depot, a bellwether for US consumers and the broader economy, reported slightly weaker-than-expected numbers for Q2. However, the stock rallied 3.1% on the back of better-than-feared numbers in the US and accelerating sales into the September quarter.

• US comps up 1.4% for the quarter, with big ticket accelerating to 2.6% vs. 0.3% in the prior quarter

• Comps up 0.3% in May, lifting to 0.5% in June and a further 3.3% in July

• CFO highlighted core category strength, reaffirmed full-year guidance, which excludes any Fed easing tailwinds

• Management said there was no need to pass on higher prices to consumers, company feels positioned to absorb higher costs given customer base strength

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Treasuries in waiting mode, curve steeping hits extremes

[8:46 am] Treasury markets largely in waiting mode ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech later this week, but curve action is drawing some attention.

• 2s-and-30s spread just under 120 bps, widest since Jan 2022, showing short-end rally vs. long-end resistance.

• US 2-year yield down 18 bps month-to-date on Fed cut expectations.

• US 30-year yield still above 4.90%, under pressure from structural and supply factors.

• 20-year JGB highest since 1999; UK 30-year gilts near highest since 1998.

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S&P 500 lower but breadth strong

[8:43 am] S&P 500 (-0.59%) and Nasdaq (-1.46%) posted worst sessions since 1-Aug but breadth was surprisingly positive amid a rotation from tech/growth to cyclical, value and rate-sensitive stocks.

• Real Estate (+1.80%), Staples (+1.00%), Utilities (+0.99%), Healthcare (+0.62%) and Materials (+0.53%) higher while Tech (-1.88%) sharply lower.

• Equal-weight S&P 500 outperformed the official benchmark by 106 bps.

• Megacap tech stocks like Nvidia (-3.5%), Broadcom (-3.5%), Tesla (-1.7%) and Microsoft (-1.4%).

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Good morning!

[8:31 am] ASX 200 futures are up 20pts (+0.22%) after a relatively mixed overnight session, with the S&P 500 down 0.59% but Dow closing around breakeven.

Today's a massive day for corporate earnings, including:

• Large caps: APA Group (APA), Breville Group (BRG), Clarity Pharma (CU6), Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY), Dexus (DXS), Hansen Technologies (HSN), Iluka Resources (ILU), Magellan (MFG), Stockland (SGP), Superloop (SLC), Service Stream (SSM), Santos (STO), Southern Cross Electrical (SXE), Transurban (TCL), The Lottery Corp (TLC), Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Small-to-mid: Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ), Arafura Rare Earths (ARU), Consol (COS), Emeco (EHL), EarlyPay (EPY), Experience Co (EXP), Harmoney (HMY), Humm Group (HUM), Lynch Group (LGL), Lycopodium (LYL), MLG (MLG), Retail Food Group (RFG), Shape Australia (SHA), Service Stream (SSM), Step One Clothing (STP), Southern Cross Electrical (SXE)

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.