ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 1st October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, October 1. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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Today's biggest losers

[1:44 pm] Non-gold miners make up many of the ASX's biggest mid and large-cap fallers today.

As mentioned below, lithium miners like Liontown and Pilbara were some of the heaviest hit, with battery materials miner Sunrise Energy retracing 10.65% after surging 186% over the last month.

The ASX 200 is now down 0.40% for the day to 8,813.4 points, which is where we'll leave you.

We'll see you all tomorrow.

By Tom Stelzer

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Lithium stocks dump on China mine update

[1:32 pm] Local lithium miners have been hit hard on news out of China that regulators have approved a report for CATL’s Jianxiawo site, opening the dorr for operations to restart at the major lithium mine.

Liontown Resources is now down 10.41% for the day, with Pilbara Minerals down 7.74% and Mineral Resources down 4.64%.

By Tom Stelzer

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More on VEEM

[1:18 pm] Despite its contract with Northop Grumman, Ord Minnett says Veem's recent H1 FY26 EBITDA downgrade is the reason for its downgrade.

"While the company continues to anticipate a strong 2HFY26 it will be difficult for VEE to recover sufficiently to meet our previous FY26 forecasts... We continue to anticipate double-digit earnings growth from FY26 onwards but with share price now exceeding the target price we are turning defensive and reduce our rating to a HOLD."

By Tom Stelzer

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VEEM downgraded after recent surge

[12:59 pm] Ord Minnett has downgraded marine and defence manufacturer Veem Ltd from a Buy to a Hold after it hit its target price of $1.90 yesterday.

Veem had been up as much as 23% this week after announcing a $14 million placement and $50 million deal with Northrop Grumman to provide components for the US Navy's Virginia Class submarine.

It's now down 6.15% on the day and trading at $1.75.

By Tom Stelzer

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NZ Energy stocks up following govt announcement

[12:39 pm] New Zealand's largest power company, Meridian Energy, is leading a charge amongst NZ energy stocks after the NZ government announced it was open to raising capital to fund new power plants.

The ASX-listed, majority state-owned Meridian is up 3.47% today, with Genesis Energy up 1.7% and Mercury NZ up 0.60%.

By Tom Stelzer

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Gold stocks mostly higher

[11:08 am] Gold miners are trading mostly higher after a relatively volatile overnight session for prices.

Gold finished the session up 0.63% to US$3,858, despite falling as much as 1.0% to US$3,793 intraday.

Westgold is soaring off the back of three year outlook plan which seeks to lower Group AISC and boost gold production from 326koz in FY25 to 470koz from FY28.

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ASX 200 flat

[11:03 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is trading around breakeven, with defensives (Utilities, Healthcare, Telcos and Industrials) offsetting weakness from the resource and discretionary sector.

Interesting to see BHP slip 1.5% on the China news, while Fortescue is trading 2.0% higher.

ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Dyno Noble nears 29-month high

[10:54 am] Dyno Nobel opened relatively flat, on little volume, but now up 3.5% ($3.21) to levels not seen since May 2023. Its trading update from this morning reiterated prior divestment and strategic review plans, as well as an above consensus FY25 EBIT guidance of $695-715m vs. consensus of $596.2m (18% beat at the midpoint).

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Bravura surges on guidance upgrade

[10:52 am] Bravura shares rallied as much as 24.9% in early trade, currently up 19.5% ($3.03) after upgrading its FY26 cash EBITDA this morning.

As noted earlier: Bravura has bumped its FY26 cash EBITDA guidance to $55-65 million vs. prior guidance of at least $50 million, representing an upgrade of ~20% at the midpoint. Macquarie's cash EBITDA forecasts currently sit at $50.4 million, so a sizeable upgrade vs. their forecasts.

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Eagers Automotive to raise $502 million for CanadaOne Auto acquisition

[10:04 am] Shares in Eagers Automotive entered a trading halt this morning, with the company announcing a major $1.0 billion investment in one of Canada's largest dealership groups. Here are the key takeaways:

• The strategic investment (65% stake) values CanadaOne at an EV/adjusted EBITDA multiple of 6.7x

• Acquisition is mid-teens EPS accretive, without any assumed synergies

• Completion is expected to occur in the first quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals

• Eagers is seeking to raise $502 million, which includes:

  • $50 million strategic placement to Mitsubishi at $18.00 per new share (vs. $29.32 last close or a 38% discount)

  • $452 million entitlement offer at $21.00 per new share or 28.4% discount to the last trade price

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Dyno Nobel issues FY25 guidance

[9:55 am] A fairly packed business update from Dyno Nobel, covering recent divestments, strategic reviews and FY25 guidance update (the company reports off-cycle, with FY results in November). The key takeaways include:

• Fertiliser sale transactions: Fertilisers distributions business sold to Ridley Corp on 30 September 2025, received upfront proceeds of $381m. Sale of Gibson Island land to be completed in coming weeks. All proceeds going towards paying working capital and debt facilities.

• Strategic review of Fertilisers Manufacturing: Closure planning for manufacturing operations at Geelong has been completed, with final production expected in October. Signed an asset sale and purchase agreement with Columbia River Nitrogen consortium for sale of St Helens, Oregon facility. The sale process for Phosphate Hill is continuing.

• FY25 update: Guides FY25 EBIT of $695-715m vs. consensus of $596.2m (18% beat at the midpoint)

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Dyno Nobel (DNL)

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Bravura lifts FY26 guidance

[9:44 am] Bravura has bumped its FY26 cash EBITDA guidance to $55-65 million vs. prior guidance of at least $50 million, representing an upgrade of ~20% at the midpoint. Macquarie's cash EBITDA forecasts currently sit at $50.4 million, so a sizeable upgrade vs. their forecasts.

Bravura says the key drivers of the upgrade are:

• Continued strength of the GBP

• A higher level of project revenues, particularly with our Wealth customers in EMEA

• A continued focus on operational efficiency

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Bravura (BVS)

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Tuas completes oversubscribed SPP

[9:31 am] Tuas announced the outcomes of its share purchase plan to support the company's proposed acquisition of M1 Limited.

"The SPP was well supported. Applications from approximately 3,000 shareholders were received for about $75 million in application funds, well in excess of the $50 million target. As foreshadowed in the SPP offer, the number of shares to be allocated to each shareholder has been scaled back," the company said in a statement.

The new shares are priced at $5.51 per share vs. the last closing price of $6.99.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Tuas (TUA)

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Westgold targets 470koz by FY28

[9:23 am] Westgold Resources has presented its three year outlook plan, which featured:

• The company calls this a "high confidence, executable three-year plan", with more than 80% of material to be mined from current ore reserves

• Sees Group AISC fall and gold production to rise from 326koz in FY25 to 470koz from FY28

• Growth underpinned by full utilisation of existing processing hubs

• Growth plan is fully funded by balance sheet and forecast cash flows

Macquarie's latest modelling goes as far as FY27, which forecasts production of 435koz.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Westgold (WGX)

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Australian home prices up again in September

[9:18 am] National average home prices continued to rise in September, with the Cotality Home Value Index up 0.8% month-on-month, marking the strongest monthly gain since October 2023. Here are some of the key highlights from the Cotality report:

• Australia’s housing market is heating up, with September delivering the strongest monthly rise in national dwelling values since October 2023. The Cotality HVI jumped 0.8%, driven by capital city momentum and record-low listings.

• Supply squeeze fuels price growth as listings hit historic lows. From Darwin to Brisbane, advertised stock levels are well below average- down 53% in Darwin alone - while buyer demand surges.

• First home buyers face fierce competition as deposit guarantee launches. With nearly half of suburbs sitting under new price caps, the expanded Home Deposit Guarantee is unlocking opportunity- but also intensifying buyer competition amid already tight supply.

Source: Cotality

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BHP bounces off session lows

[9:15 am] A few more tidbits on the BHP and China dispute:

• LSE-listed BHP shares dipped as much as 4.7% but closed the session down just 1.9%

• NYSE-listed ADRs fell just 0.80%

• BHP produced 263Mt of iron ore in FY25, assuming ~60% of this goes to China, that's approximately 160Mt

• China imported 1.24bn tonnes of iron ore in 2024, according to data published by the country's General Administration of Customs

• BHP therefore accounts for approximately 13% of Chinese iron ore imports, a gap that's impossible to fill

• None of the majors (Fortescue, Rio Tinto and Min Res) have much spare capacity

• Brazil's Vale could look to step in to some degree, though plenty of uncertainties around pricing, relatively higher haulage costs and seasonal headwinds (rainy season)

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China's reported ban on BHP iron ore

[9:02 am] LSE-listed BHP shares dipped as much as 4.7% overnight on reports China temporarily banned purchases of its Pilbara iron ore amid pricing negotiations for the next 12 months. The China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) allegedly ordered the freeze after talks with BHP stalled, though Chinese pricing firm Mysteel disputed the report, claiming steel mills received no such notice.

The dispute centers on discounts for BHP's medium-grade ore and is viewed as a negotiating tactic by CMRG to gain leverage, not a broader political trade ban. BHP sends 55-65% of its sales to China, making it heavily exposed. The reported ban prevents new dollar-denominated deals, including for cargoes already en route from Australia, potentially leaving millions in shipments unloaded and incurring significant costs.

Analysts see this as China attempting to break the bargaining power of major iron ore miners, with BHP potentially singled out since it lacks a stake in West Africa's Simandou project where Chinese firms are invested. However, experts doubt a prolonged ban is sustainable given Chinese steel mills' reliance on Australian ore. Any extended disruption could squeeze steel margins and raise construction costs.

Source: AFR

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US monthly and quarterly recap

[8:58 am] Major US benchmarks capped off an uncharacteristically strong September and a bumper third quarter.

Here are some of the key highlights from September:

• S&P 500 up 3.5%, Nasdaq up 5.6%, Dow up 1.8% and Russell 2000 up 2.9%

• S&P 500 and Russell 2000 posted its fifth straight monthly gain, Nasdaq up for a sixth straight month

• Gains were concentrated in larger cap stocks, as the Equal-weight S&P 500 underperformed the official benchmark by ~300 bps

• Key drivers include solid economic data (Citi's Economic Surprise Index at the highest levels of the year), big AI headlines including Nvidia's investment in Intel, Oracle and Broadcom's bumper earnings as well as the resumption of the Fed's rate cutting cycle

In terms of the third quarter:

• S&P 500 up 7.7%, Nasdaq up 11.2%, Dow up 5.2% and Russell 2000 up 12.0%

• Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit multiple record highs during the quarter

• Still, gains were uneven as the Equal-weight S&P 500 rose just 4.4% for the quarter

• Small-cap Russell 2000 had its best quarter since the December quarter 2023

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Here comes a US government shutdown

[8:53 am] The US government is shutting down after midnight as Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked. The Congressional Budget Office estimates 750,000 federal workers will be furloughed at a daily compensation cost of $400 million, with numbers potentially rising the longer the shutdown persists.

The impasse centers on Democratic demands to include enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits in any continuing resolution. These credits lower insurance premiums for millions and expire end-2025. Republicans want a "clean" funding bill, calling the ACA issue "a made-up problem" and accusing Democrats of playing politics. Democrats refuse to pass a bill without healthcare protections, framing it as essential rather than negotiable.

Source: CNBC

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RBA's next rate cut pushed back to May 2026

[8:51 am] The RBA kept rates unchanged at 3.6% on Tuesday, but delivered a hawkish hold, citing potential inflation upside in the third quarter.

The likelihood of a November rate cut has dropped to 38% from over 50%, with the next full 25 bp cut priced for May 2026.

Monthly inflation hit the top of the RBA's 2-3% target in August, with housing and market services running hot. Combined with a tight labor market (4.2% unemployment) and signs of economic recovery, the RBA is signaling patience. Governor Bullock described policy as "probably a little bit restrictive" but stressed data-dependence, refusing to commit to November easing.

Source: Bloomberg

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OpenAI – revenue (and costs) are soaring

[8:42 am] OpenAI generated $4.3 billion revenue in the first half of 2025, up 16% vs. the entirety of 2024, but burned $2.5 billion in cash over the same period.

R&D spending hit $6.7 billion as the company invests heavily in larger models and infrastructure to run ChatGPT at scale.

Source: The Information

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Investors cashing out on small cap rally

[8:39 am] Despite the Russell 2000 hitting all-time highs, investors are fleeing, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF seeing $5.4 billion in outflows this year.

Years of underperformance since the pandemic have shattered confidence, with investors taking profits rather than riding the rally. September saw positive flows but nowhere near enough to offset 2024's exodus.

Skepticism clearly persists, with Wells Fargo calling the rate-cut trade "over" and recommending rotating back to AI stocks, while Ned Davis noted the S&P Small Cap 600 hasn't matched the Russell's breakout, suggesting weakness in lower-quality names.

Source: Bloomberg

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US dollar likely to weaken amid government shutdown

[8:25 am] The dollar faces pressure from a potential US government shutdown, adding to existing headwinds including the Fed's rate-cutting cycle and Trump administration attacks on central bank independence. Historical data shows the dollar weakens during shutdowns, with a 35-day period during the 2018-2019 closure delivering a sharp 2% decline, demonstrating that longer shutdowns inflict more damage. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is already down over 8% this year through September.

Currency strategists expect modest dollar weakness against safe-haven currencies like the yen, Swiss franc, and euro if a shutdown occurs, though a quick resolution could limit the downside. The immediate concern for investors is delayed economic data releases, including Friday's high-profile monthly employment report.

Source: Bloomberg

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Good morning!

[8:20 am] ASX 200 futures are down 11pts (-0.12%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

• Major US benchmarks finished broadly higher, near session highs

• Dow closed at record highs, powered by gains from the Healthcare sector, including Merck (+6.8%), Amgen (+3.0%) and J&J (+2.0%)

• S&P 500 closed within an arms reach of last Monday's record high

• Looming US government shutdown receiving a lot of attention, on track for shutdown as no funding deal has been reached

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.