ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 16th September

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, September 16. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Infratil lifts FY27 guidance on CDC data centre contract wins

[9:02 am] The infrastructure investor has upgraded earnings guidance at its Sydney investor day as data centre demand drives portfolio growth.

• Proportionate FY27 EBITDAF guidance lifted to NZ$1,320-1,420m from NZ$1,300-1,400m, a 1.5% upgrade at the midpoint, with guidance for the other operating businesses unchanged

• CDC Data Centres raised its FY27 EBITDAF range to A$710-750m from A$680-720m, a 4.3% midpoint upgrade, reflecting another 70MW of signed contracts, operating cost savings and non-recurring managed services delivery

• CDC has 350MW of deployed capacity and 1.1GW of contracted capacity expected to deliver A$2.2bn of EBITDAF when fully deployed, with the new contracts landing across late FY27 and early FY28

• Data centre investments now make up just over half of Infratil's NZ$22bn total asset value, with CEO Jason Boyes flagging CDC, Kao Data in the UK and Longroad Energy all benefiting from AI demand

• Longroad Energy has acquired a 2.8GW project, lifting development cadence to about 2.5GW a year over 2027-2029 and total fleet to 14GW, and has identified a 10GW pipeline of solar sites for potential data centre co-location

• A sales process is underway for Qscan, the radiology business, with the balance sheet backed by a BBB+ credit rating and ongoing portfolio refinement

NZX-listed Ifratil shares are up 5.0% this morning to N$14.30.

Company page: Infratil (IFT)

Paragon Care launches buy-back and employee trust purchase

[9:02 am] The healthcare products distributor has flagged two separate on-market share purchase programs.

• The buy-back covers up to 82,765,269 shares, the maximum permitted under the 10/12 limit and roughly 5% of current shares on issue

• At the 15 September closing price of $0.13, the aggregate cash cost of the buy-back would be about $10.8m

• Timing is tied to the FY26 result, with the buy-back to commence on or shortly following the release, subject to market conditions, trading volumes and the right to suspend or terminate

• Separately, the ParagonCare Employee Share Trust has been instructed to acquire up to 23,900,401 shares on market to satisfy future vesting under the Employee Incentive Plan

• Trust purchases begin on or shortly after the announcement at no more than 5% above the five-day VWAP, with ASX to be notified when purchasing ceases or completes

• No shareholder approval is required as the buy-back sits within the 10/12 limit under the Corporations Act

Company page: Paragon Care (PGC)

James Hardie 2026 Investor Day highlights

[8:56 am] Management used its New York investor day to reaffirm FY27 guidance, lift the free cash flow target and lay out a growth algorithm it says works regardless of housing.

The presentation was held at 8:30 am ET, so right before the US market opened. NYSE-listed James Hardie shares finished the session 4.4% lower.

• On the growth algorithm: "what we are targeting is organic growth of 4%-7%. That is not market-dependent... one year, one may be more than the other, but in balance, we are confident that we can get to that 4%-7%"

• On cost synergies: "We were targeting $125 million of cost synergies over three years, and we are excited to update you that we plan to exit the FY27 run rate of $125 million by the end of FY27, which is one year ahead of our original schedule"

• On free cash flow: "Our FY27 guide expected roughly $500 million of free cash flow. We are raising that target to roughly $600 million now based on the cash the business is generating this year... We anticipate 40% moving forward for free cash flow conversion"

• On the Europe divestiture: "The agreed sale price is roughly $980 million on a USD basis, which represents a 12x multiple on 2026 EBITDA... We expect this divestiture to be accretive to the overall margin by roughly 150 basis points, and we plan to use the proceeds, roughly $600 million for debt paydown, and roughly $250 million share repurchase"

• On the housing backdrop: "our guidance does not assume any macro housing recovery, and we remain cautious on housing until we see key indicators meaningfully improve. In addition, we've seen no relief on fundamental costs, including freight and diesel"

• On spare capacity: "You can see 70% on the fiber cement, 65% in decking and 60%. We've already got assets on the ground ready for that growth... We're ready to enable that share growth, without the need for near-term investment"

• On Australia and New Zealand: "are you committed to Australia and New Zealand? Yes, absolutely... We like this business. It is our most profitable business. We have good market share there"

• On US index inclusion: "An average of 23% of S&P 500 shares are held via US index today, and only roughly 2% for James Hardie... We are now in the MSCI Small Cap Index, as well as the S&P Completion Index"

Company page: James Hardie (JHX)

Auric picks up Burbanks plant infrastructure for $1.2m

[8:51 am] The WA gold junior has secured second-hand processing equipment at a heavy discount to replacement cost, keeping its restart timeline intact.

• Auric Mining is a WA gold producer working to re-establish its own processing plant at the Burbanks project near Coolgardie, having previously relied on third-party toll treatment

• The package cost $1.2m against an estimated replacement cost of $15m to $20m, with the all-in cost of delivering it to site expected to be substantially below that figure

• The NSW-based plant supports the initial 600ktpa Burbanks CIL design and comprises a complete three-stage crushing circuit, fine ore bin and conveyors, material handling equipment and shedding, and milling structure

• Associated spare parts and consumables are included, along with two complete spare cone crushers and one spare jaw crusher, adding operational redundancy

• Interquip will start removal and relocation in Q4 2026, with all equipment on site at Burbanks ready for installation in Q1 2027 and plant re-establishment still targeted for Q1 2028

Auric has a market cap of approximately $43 million vs. $38m cash at 30 June 2026, no debt and no hedging. It reports off-cycle, with the latest 1H26 result (to 30-Jun) delivering operating cash flow of $33.7m on pre-tax profit of $28m.

Company page: Auric Mining (AWJ)

Tungsten Mining confirms Watershed flowsheet with high-grade concentrate

[8:50 am] The junior has produced saleable tungsten concentrate from its north Queensland project and shipped samples to potential offtake partners.

• Tungsten Mining is a WA-based developer advancing the Watershed tungsten project in far north Queensland, with tungsten used in cutting tools, alloys and defence applications

• Metallurgical testwork produced concentrate grading up to 65.9% tungsten trioxide, confirming the ability to deliver a +50% or +65% tungsten trioxide product

• The go-forward flowsheet is confirmed using conventional ore sorting, gravity and flotation beneficiation, underpinning the Definitive Feasibility Study

• The DFS remains on track for October 2026, allowing a Final Investment Decision on Watershed during the fourth quarter of 2026

• Multiple commercial-grade samples have been dispatched to potential downstream offtake partners, with commercial terms under negotiation

• Further bulk testwork is in progress on a larger 134t pilot sample, while a 16.9kg rock chip sample from the bulk sample area assayed 64.3% tungsten trioxide

Company page: Tungsten Mining (TGN)

Wiluna Mining lines up $180m IPO for ASX return

[8:44 am] The West Australian gold producer is targeting a relisting in late October, two and a half years after being kicked off the bourse.

• Argonaut Securities and Barrenjoey have asked fund managers to bid at 65c to 85c a share, implying a market capitalisation of $471.7m to $539.4m depending on the final price

• CEO Victor Rajasooriar leads a roadshow from 21 September to mid-October, with the company potentially rejoining the ASX around 26 October

• Of the $180m raised, $40m repays debt owed to mining contractor Byrnecut and $45.6m is reserved for working capital, with the rest going to exploration

• Exploration is the near-term focus after a carbon-in-leach tank ruptured at the processing plant in July and halted mining operations

• The register is far from vanilla, a legacy of the 2022 voluntary administration, with lender Deutsche Balaton entitled to shares at a 22.5% discount to the IPO price and three sets of convertible notes converting at 10% to 25% discounts

• The asset holds 7m ounces of gold, paired with a 2.1mtpa processing facility, a gold concentrator, a gas-fired power station and a 300-person camp

Source: AFR

JPMorgan maps five Fed scenarios for the S&P 500

[8:42 am] JPMorgan has set out how US equities could react to each possible outcome from the Fed's next decision.

JPMorgan runs this "how US equities could react" series ahead of CPI, Fed meetings and other major catalysts fairly regularly. The S&P 500 rarely lands where the scenarios say it will, so take it as illustrative rather than a forecast.

• No hike would likely add upward pressure to longer-dated bond yields as inflation expectations rise, with the S&P 500 falling 1.25% to 1.75%.

• A 25 basis point hike with no guidance is the consensus view on Wall Street and would contain the back end of the yield curve, lifting the S&P 500 0.25% to 0.75%.

• A 25 basis point hike that removes 2025 eases could be greeted even more positively, with Fed Chair Warsh flagging hikes in October and December rather than December and March worth 0.50% to 1% on the S&P 500.

  • R-star is the neutral real interest rate that satisfies both full employment and stable inflation.

• A 25 basis point hike with no R-star guidance could have traders concluding the current rate is too accommodative and pricing a half point move at any meeting this year, sending the S&P 500 down 0.25% to 1%.

• A 25 basis point hike framed around crushing inflation, with Warsh suggesting the fed funds rate needs to be materially higher, would repeat the 2022/2023 hiking cycle and could end the bull market, with the S&P 500 down 1% to 2%.

Fed set to hike for the first time since 2023

[8:42 am] Markets have all but locked in a quarter-point increase on Wednesday, putting Chair Kevin Warsh at odds with the White House weeks out from the midterms.

• Futures traders assign better than a 92% chance to a hike at this week's FOMC meeting, which would lift the funds rate from its current 3.5% to 3.75% target range, with December odds above 75%

• August CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% and core at 2.4%, with Warsh signalling at Jackson Hole the Fed would move absent more convincing evidence inflation was heading back to 2%

• The July meeting went 9-3 in favour of a hold, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissenting for a hike, meaning at least four more members need to cross over on Wednesday

• Waller and Williams have both signalled little urgency, with Waller questioning on 3 September what a single 25bp move would actually achieve for inflation

• Goldman economist David Mericle sees no strong economic case for hiking and attributes the overshoot to one-off factors, but revised to a hike call on the weight of market pricing

• An updated dot plot lands alongside the decision, with the June projections showing nine officials favouring at least one increase before year-end and Warsh not submitting his own

Source: Quartz

Brent tops US$108 as Saudi export route seizes up

[8:40 am] Attacks on Saudi Arabia's westward crude route have pushed oil to four-month highs while the US blockade of Iran grinds on.

• Loadings suspended at Yanbu, Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export terminal, after Riyadh told European customers some late-September cargoes would be cancelled

• The 1,200km East-West pipeline that carries 7m barrels a day to the Red Sea was shut after a Houthi drone strike, though US Energy Secretary Chris Wright expects a restart within days

• Goldman Sachs strategist rigsby said the infrastructure attacks mark a meaningful escalation and raise the probability of the bank's upside scenario of Brent above $120

• The US naval blockade now involves about 22 ships at roughly $32.5m a day, with costs topping $7.1bn since January and the CBO putting the total war bill at $38bn as at 1 August

• Iran exported about 2m barrels a day pre-war, close to 2% of global supply, with satellite images showing almost no tankers at Kharg Island and domestic inflation running above 80%

BofA survey shows fund managers trimming equity bullishness

[8:36 am] Bank of America's latest global fund manager survey has investors pulling back from risk assets as bond market fears build ahead of the Fed.

• A net 49% of fund managers are overweight global equities, down from 56% last month, with a disorderly rise in bond yields now viewed as the biggest tail risk to the market

• Cash holdings rose to 3.9% of portfolios, though strategist Michael Hartnett notes they remain at levels that flash a sell signal for risk assets

• A net 48% of fund managers are underweight bonds, the most since May 2022, with nearly half expecting no impact on yields from the Treasury's buyback program

• A net 25% of participants said monetary policy is too stimulative, the highest since 2022, with swaps traders pricing about 94% odds of a Fed hike on Wednesday

• The share expecting a double-digit increase in corporate earnings over the next year was the highest since August 2021, with Hartnett saying the sole worry is companies over-investing capital

• About 44% of investors see a split Democratic House and Republican Senate as the most likely midterm outcome, while nearly half expect yields to rise and stocks to fall on a Democratic sweep

Source: Bloomberg

Good morning!

[8:26 am] ASX 200 futures are up 31 pts (+0.35%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Wall Street fell for a second session but off worst levels as small gains for chipmakers cushioned the benchmarks

  • S&P 500 (-0.45%), Nasdaq (-0.78%), Dow (-0.63%), Russell 2000 (-0.76%)

• US 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5.0%, the highest since 2007 as futures moved to price better than a 90% chance of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday, which would be the first since July 2023

• Brent rose almost 2% to US$108.49 as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline remains offline, keeping roughly 4% of global supply at risk

• Fed decision at 4:00 am AEST tomorrow morning, the US 2-year yield is currently ~100 bps above the federal funds rate of 3.50–3.75%, lots of possible scenarios here (a hike is near-certain but will Warsh opt for a dovish hike or guide to a new hiking cycle)