ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 16th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, July 16. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's blog will conclude at 3:00 pm. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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Japan's bond yields are surging

[2:00 pm] Japan's long-term government debt yield is trading at record levels, including:

• 40-year yield rose overnight to near the highest since 2007 debut

• 30-year yield at highest since the 1999 debut

• 20-year yield at highest since 1999

• 10-year yield at highest since 2008

Rising JGB yields could pressure equity markets by unwinding yen carry trades and pulling Japanese capital away from equities.

Japan 10-year (yellow), 20-year (red), 30-year (green) and 40-year (blue) bond yields (Source: TradingView)

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ASX 200 slumps amid broad-based weakness

[1:40 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 is trading 70 points lower (-0.81%), marking a sharp retreat from Tuesday's record close.

Mirroring the overnight session where the Nasdaq (+4.0%) and semiconductor stocks propped up the entire market while the Equal-weight S&P 500 tumbled 1.39%, every local sector is in the red except technology.

Key heavyweight sectors are driving the decline, with Materials (-1.21%) and Financials (-1.02%) leading the downside. Notable individual declines include CSL (-1.7%), NAB (-1.7%), BHP (-1.3%), and CBA (-1.1%).

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Infratil briefly spikes on ASX 200 inclusion

[1:07 pm] Infratil shares rallied 9.8% in early trade following the announcement that it will replace Spartan Resources in the S&P/ASX 200, effective prior to Wednesday's open on July 23.

The reshuffle comes as Spartan prepares to delist as part of its merger with Ramelius Resources, subject to final court approval. The spike likely reflects buying pressure from index-tracking ETFs, funds, and institutional investors repositioning their portfolios ahead of the change.

Infratil intraday price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Rio Tinto slips on soft iron ore shipments

[12:59 pm] Rio Tinto shares slipped 0.5% following its second quarter update, which delivered mixed results including slightly better-than-expected iron ore production and strong copper volumes, offset by soft iron ore shipments.

The update contained no major surprises beyond robust copper and bauxite performance, with the Simandou timeline pulled slightly forward and FY25 guidance reaffirmed. The stock's modest decline aligns with broader sector weakness, as peers BHP fell 1.2% and Fortescue dropped 0.4%.

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Droneshield crushes bearish bets

[12:52 pm] Droneshield has surged an extraordinary 132% in the past month and 416% year-to-date, with Tuesday's 14.8% rally to $3.72 pushing the stock into extreme overbought territory and likely attracting short sellers.

The volatility continued today as the stock opened 4.5% higher before plunging as much as 4.5% in early trade, only to V-shape recover back to approximately 5% gains. This extreme price action reflects the market's struggle between overbought concerns and bubble-like narratives versus the company's recent contract momentum and strength in the broader defence sector.

Droneshield intraday price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Small caps making moves

[11:45 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers in early trade.

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Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:36 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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Hub24 slips after Tuesday's record run

[10:15 am] Hub24 (-1.4%) has slipped back below the $100 level after surging 6.4% on Tuesday.

The move was in response to a strong June quarter and full-year trading update, which noted:

• Q4 FY25 platform net inflows of $5.3bn, up 7% vs. the prior period

• Record annual platform net inflows of $19.8bn, up 25% vs. the prior period

• Total funds under administration up 30% to $136.4bn as at 30 June 2025

• Citi analysts (as at 2 Jul) forecast 4Q25 net flows of $4.9bn and annual platform net inflows of $19.3bn. This implies quarterly and annual flows were a respective 8.1% and 2.5% ahead of their estimates.

Several brokers have run the ruler on the trading update, with key takeaways including:

• Bell Potter maintained Buy, raised target from $110 to $115. Highlights strong net flows, firm retention, and ongoing demand despite market volatility.

• RBC Capital Markets maintained Sector Perform, raised target from $75 to $85. Notes better-than-expected transitions and sees upside from advice reform tailwinds.

• Jefferies downgraded to Underperform from Hold, raised target from $80 to $84. Acknowledges record flows and market share gains but sees valuation as stretched.

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Analysts take on Tyro Payments

[10:07 am] Shares in Tyro Payments suffered a brief 14% selloff on Tuesday after the RBA proposed a sweeping ban on card surcharges, covering all debit and credit transactions on the eftpos, Mastercard, and Visa networks.

Despite the initial selloff, the stock managed to finish the session down just 2.7%.

Here's what analysts are thinking about the proposed RBA changes:

• Canaccord Genuity maintained Buy, target unchanged at $1.65. Believes the selloff was overdone and sees regulatory change as a long-term positive for margins and merchant growth.

• UBS maintained Buy, target unchanged at $1.35. Sees limited near-term impact but notes TYR is well placed to benefit from competitor disruption and greater fee transparency.

• Jefferies maintained Buy, target unchanged at $1.40. Despite surprise reforms, TYR kept guidance and is expected to benefit from industry shakeout and clearer pricing in the medium term.

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Newmont to divest its shares in Greatland Resources and Discovery Silver

[9:51 am] Newmont has executed agreements to sell its shares in Greatland Resources and Discovery Silver Corp for approximately $470 million, net of taxes and commissions. The transaction involves 100% of its Discovery holdings and reduces its Greatland stake to 9.9%.

Following these sales, Newmont now expects to generate $3 billion in after-tax cash proceeds from its divestiture program in 2025 and reaffirmed its FY25 guidance.

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Evolution reports FY25 production, FY26 guidance

[9:47 am] Evolution Mining reported an operationally solid FY25 but a mixed FY26 outlook. Here are the key takeaways:

• FY25 gold production of 751koz vs. 710-780koz guidance (0.8% beat at the midpoint)

• FY25 copper production of 76 kt vs. 70-80kt guidance (1.3% beat)

• AISC of A$1,572/oz vs. A$1,475-1,575/oz guidance (3.1% miss)

• Higher-than-expected AISC reflects $40-45/oz of higher royalty cost linked to rising gold prices

• Cash balance of $760m, post debt repayments of $220m during the year

• Record annual operating mine cash flow of $2.28bn

• Gearing ended the year at 15% vs. 25% at the beginning of 2025

As for FY26, the company guided (vs. Citi estimates as at 6 June):

• Group gold production 710-780koz vs. 752koz ests (0.9% miss at midpoint)

• Group copper production 70-80kt

• AISC (cont ops) A$1,720-1,880/oz, unclear if comparable to A$1,604 ests

• Capex $780-980m vs. $759m ests (15.9% miss)

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Evolution Mining (EVN)

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Lendlease secures premium development site

[9:34 am] Lendlease has secured a premium development site at 175 Liverpool Street, Sydney, earmarked for a $2.5 billion luxury residential project overlooking Hyde Park with up to 300 apartments and 2,000 sqm of retail.

Key highlights:

• A 50% selldown to JV partners is expected in the coming weeks, consistent with Lendlease’s strategy of early capital partnering to deliver fee income and predictable earnings over time.

• Project is slated to commence in FY27 and complete by CY30, with returns expected comfortably above the Group’s cost of equity. Revenue streams to include development and construction fees and settlement proceeds.

• Follows successful high-end developments such as: One Sydney Harbour, which set a record for Australia's most expensive penthouse, and One Circular Quay, now over 80% sold by value, with $2 billion in sales and profits to flow in FY27.

• Strategic pivot to Australia and investment management is gaining traction amid: i) $3 billion of Australian development restocking in the past year, ii) $1.5 billion in new investment management mandates, and iii) $2.5 billion in capital recycling transactions in FY25, freeing up capital and improving returns.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Lendlease (LLC)

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Mount Gibson Iron acquires a gold project

[9:30 am] Mount Gibson Iron has announced a fascinating pivot, acquiring a 50% interest in the Central Tanami Project JV from Northern Star Resources.

Key transaction highlights include:

• Significant 1.6Moz gold Mineral Resource (CTPJV 100%) with the vast majority located on granted mining leases and having strong potential for growth

• Plans to reach a potential development decision within the next 12-18 months

• The acquisition cost of $50M (plus normal adjustments on completion) represents an attractive entry price at a time of strong gold fundamentals

• Complements Mount Gibson’s strategy to become a diversified multi-commodity producer, with this transaction being the initial step towards building a precious metals production base

In a nutshell: Mount Gibson’s flagship Koolan Island project is entering its final 12–18 months of mine life. While the company has a market cap of $330 million, it holds $460 million in cash — giving it a negative enterprise value. This highlights investor uncertainty about what comes next.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Mount Gibson Iron (MGX)

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Rio Tinto reports Q2 production

[9:25 am] Rio Tinto delivered a relatively mixed Q2 production report this morning, which included:

• Pilbara iron ore production (100% basis) of 83.7Mt vs. 81.6Mt ests (2.6% beat)

• Pilbara iron ore shipments of 79.9Mt vs. 81.6Mt ests (2.1% miss)

• Total copper production of 229Kt vs. 202Kt ests (13.4% beat)

The company reiterated its FY25 production and cost guidance, but flagged some slight changes to expectations:

• Pilbara iron ore shipments (100% basis) of 323-338Mt but expects to hit the lower end of guidance

• Pilbara iron ore unit cash costs on FOB basis to be US$23-24.5/wmt

• Copper production (consolidated basis) of 780-850Kt and expected to hit the higher end of guidance due to successful ramp up of Oyu Tolgoi

• Copper C1 net unit costs to be US$1.30-1.50/lb and track towards lower end of guidance due to solid cost control and production volumes

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Rio Tinto (RIO)

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Nasdaq at record highs but breadth tells a different story

[9:18 am] The Nasdaq (+0.18%) managed to log a fresh all-time high overnight but market breadth was extremely weak.

The S&P 500 heat map below highlights how a handful of megacap tech stocks manged to pull indices higher, while everything else struggled.

S&P 500 heat map as at 16 July close (Source: TradingView)

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US inflation print shifts rate cut probabilities

[9:15 am] The inflation data raised concerns that certain goods categories exposed to Trump's tariffs were beginning to drive meaningful price increases. According to Bloomberg, "Goods prices, excluding food and energy commodities, rose 0.2% after stalling in the prior month. Toy prices increased at the fastest pace since early 2021, while the costs of household furnishings and sports equipment climbed by the most since 2022. Appliances prices jumped the most in nearly five years."

These inflationary pressures have shifted market expectations for September rate cuts, with the probability of a 25 basis point reduction declining from 60.8% earlier this week to 53.5%.

Source: CME Fedwatch tool

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US inflation cooler, but tariffs bite

[9:00 am] US inflation was slightly cooler-than-expected for a fifth consecutive month but the data stoked worries that companies are starting to pass through tariff-related costs to consumers.

• June core CPI up 0.2% month-on-month vs. 0.3% ests

• Annualised core up 2.9% vs. 3.0% consensus, but up from 2.8% in May

• Headline CPI up 0.3% month-on-month, in-line with expectations

• Annualised headline at 2.7%, in-line but up from 2.4% in May

• Shelter index up 0.2% month-on-month, accounting for the bulk of the increase

• Core goods up 0.2% month-to-month, accelerating from May’s flat reading as tariff impacts take the spotlight

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News Corp authorises $1 billion buyback

[8:55 am] News Corp has authorised a $1 billion share repurchase program. The total buyback amount currently sits at $1.3 billion, as its existing $1 billion program authorised back in September 2021, has approximately $303 million remaining.

The company said it plans to begin buybacks after its FY25 earnings in early August. A few key comments from management include:

• "We believe our stock is trading at a significant discount to its intrinsic value ... We also expect to increase meaningfully and materially the pace of repurchases from the current daily rate."

• "We believe our balance sheet is immaculate, our cash flow has been fundamentally transformed over the last decade, and we are confident in the company's potential for robust growth. We sincerely believe that expanding our repurchase program will enhance value for all shareholders and the expected pacing reflects our belief in the financial health of our company."

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BofA FMS survey says markets look toppy

[8:50 am] Latest Global Fund Manager Survey highlighted some rather bearish data points for markets, but it doesn't expect an immediate pullback.

• Most bullish sentiment since Feb-25, with a surge in risk appetite over the past three months

• Cash levels declined 0.3 pp to 3.9%, triggering a sell signal (as low cash levels sometimes coincide with market peaks)

• Biggest jump in US exposure since Dec-24, largest three-month spike in tech allocations since Mar-09

• Recession expectations fell for a third-straight month

• Short US dollar was the most crowded trade (for the first time in history)

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Good morning!

[8:40 am] ASX 200 futures are down 66pts (-0.77%) after a very weak overnight session, where more than 90% S&P 500 constituents finished lower.

A very catalyst rich overnight session featuring US inflation, major bank earnings, Bank of America's monthly FMS survey and more. (Will take a closer look at these in a moment).

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.