ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 14th May

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, May 14. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 logs sixth straight gain

[4:15 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.13%, closing at its session high. Trading was subdued with a tight range. The index extended its winning streak to six days, gaining 1.57% to reach its highest level since February 25.

Breadth continues to be relatively mixed, with exactly 100 S&P/ASX 200 constituents closing in positive territory. The market continues to rotate into growth-oriented pockets of the market as well as beaten up energy stocks.

Signing off – Have a good night everyone! Looking forward to seeing some consensus downgrades for Aristocrat Leisure tomorrow (but they'll remain buy-rated probably) plus Xero and Graincorp earnings.

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Core Lithium's best day since 2020

[3:35 pm] Core Lithium is on track to record its best one-day session since December 2020 following the release of its Finniss restart study this morning. The stock is currently up 37%, on 118.5 million volume or approximately 1,180% its 20-day average volume.

Here are some of the key takeaways from the study:

• Processing costs reduced to A$40–46/t, down 33–42% from A$69/t

• Unit operating costs lowered to A$690–785/t (FOB, SC6 equivalent, excluding royalties)

• Concentrate production increased to ~205 ktpa (SC6 equivalent), up 7% from prior estimates

• Confirms potential for an attractive 20-year mine life

• High-confidence production plan, with 94% of the first 10 years supported by ore reserves

• Pre-production capital expenditure decreased to A$175–200m, down 29–38% from A$282m

• Projected free cash flow of A$1.15bn

• Final investment decision (FID) remains subject to board approval

The only thing I'd add here is that the study is based on long-term spodumene price assumptions of US$1,330 a tonne (SC6 equivalent). To add some perspective, Pilbara Minerals sold a SC5.3 grade product for US$747 a tonne in the March quarter 2025. So spot prices need to get a move on in order to reach projected returns. Nevertheless, the study highlighted a sizeable reduction in operating and capex costs.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Core Lithium

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Stocks moving on unusual volume

[2:55 pm] These are the S&P/ASX 200 stocks experiencing unusual volume, as a % of their 20-day average volumes.

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Citi cuts 3 month Gold target on US-China tariff negotiations

[2:30 pm • By Carl Capolingua] Citi has cut its 0-3 month price target for gold to US$3,150/oz from US$3,300/oz in the wake of thawing US-China trade tensions. "As tariff concerns drove a significant part of the last leg higher, gold prices are likely to continue consolidating amid progresses on tariff negotiations," the broker noted in a research report released earlier today.

Citi points to other potentially bearish factors for the gold price in the near term, in an environment where investors are potentially already heavily weighted to the precious metal. Citing "record global wealth allocation", the broker also warned that falling jewelry demand and potentially rising scrap supply may also act as "physical pushbacks against much higher gold prices".

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Top gainers and losers around noon

[11:30 am] Here are the S&P/ASX 200 stocks making the biggest gains and declines as at 11:30 am.

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Aristocrat Leisure dives on earnings miss

[10:55 am] Aristocrat Leisure shares are trading sharply lower after reporting weaker-than-expected first-half FY25 results.

The stock opened 5.8% lower ($64.13) and currently down 13% ($59.22).

Here are the key numbers we noted earlier this morning:

• Revenue up 8.7% to $3.03bn vs. $3.19bn ests (5.0% miss)

• Normalised EBITDA up 12.8% to $1.24bn vs. $1.37bn ests (9.4% miss)

• Normalised NPATA up 5.6% to $732.6m vs. $804.3m ests (8.9% miss)

• Interim dividend up 22.2% to 44 cents per share vs. 42 cents ests (4.7% beat)

It appears the slight dividend beat was unable to offset the weaker top-and-bottom line result, driving a substantial de-rating for the gaming company.

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Life360 at all-time highs

[10:35 am] Life360 has added another ~9% this morning and briefly traded above the key $30 level for the first time on record. This follows a 13.9% rally on Monday, after reporting some bumper first-quarter EBITDA figures. As we noted on the Live Blog yesterday:

• Revenue up 32% to $103.6m vs. $101.4m consensus (2.1% beat)

• Underlying EBITDA up 270% to $15.9m vs. $8.7m consensus (82% beat)

Goldman Sachs raised their target price overnight, up from $27 to $31, reflecting "momentum in the core subscription business across US and International, and Life360’s new hardware and subscription revenue guidance."

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Small caps making moves

[10:25 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers as at 10:25 am.

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Top gainers and losers at open

[10:20 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers as at 10:20 am.

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Alliance Aviation cuts FY25 guidance

[10:00 am] Alliance Aviation Services provided a mixed FY25 update, leading to a lower profit before tax guidance.

• EBITDA guidance up to $205-210m vs. prior guidance of $202.1m (up 1.4-3.9%)

• Profit before tax guidance cut to $80-85m vs. prior guidance of $92.9m (down 8.5% to 13.9%)

The company says results have been impacted by aircraft damage, protected industrial action, North Queensland Floods and Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Alliance Aviation

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ASIC sues Macquarie for misleading conduct

[9:40 am] ASIC has filed proceedings in the NSW Supreme Court, alleging that between December 11, 2009, and February 14, 2024, Macquarie inaccurately reported at least 73 million short sales, with estimates suggesting the figure could range from 298 million to 1.5 billion. In its first case targeting short sale reporting, ASIC claims Macquarie's misleading conduct stemmed from multiple systems-related issues, many undetected for over a decade.

Additionally, ASIC alleges Macquarie failed to accurately report regulatory data for 633,680 orders submitted to the Market Operator between November 16, 2022, and March 21, 2023. Beyond penalties, ASIC is seeking an independent review and assurance of Macquarie's regulatory reporting systems, controls, and supervisory procedures, including those for short sale reporting, to ensure compliance with legal requirements.

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Aristocrat 1H25 NPAT miss, dividend beat

[9:35 am] Aristocrat Leisure reported a relatively mixed first-half result, including:

• Revenue up 8.7% to $3.03bn vs. $3.19bn ests (5.0% miss)

• Normalised EBITDA up 12.8% to $1.24bn vs. $1.37bn ests (9.4% miss)

• Normalised NPATA up 5.6% to $732.6m vs. $804.3m ests (8.9% miss)

• Interim dividend up 22.2% to 44 cents per share vs. 42 cents ests (4.7% beat)

“Looking ahead, we continue to see strong momentum in our business as we align our portfolio to capture the significant strategic opportunities in front of us. We expect an acceleration in operating momentum in the second half of the year as we capitalise on product rollout and technology initiatives across our portfolio," said CEO Trevor Croker.

The dividend exceeded consensus expectations, signaling robust cash flow generation and balance sheet flexibility. However, softer-than-anticipated top-and bottom-line results may exert downward pressure on the stock.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Aristocrat Leisure

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Bain unable to proceed with binding offer for Insignia

[9:25 am] Bain Capital has withdrawn from submitting a binding offer for Insignia, citing macroeconomic uncertainty and volatility in global capital markets. Meanwhile, CC Capital remains engaged in discussions and is actively working toward presenting a binding bid in the coming weeks.

Insignia’s shares closed at $4.00 on Tuesday, compared to the $5.00 per share non-binding proposals from both Bain and CC Capital.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Insignia Financial

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CBA reports largely in-line Q3 result

[9:15 am] Commonwealth Bank's March quarter numbers were largely in-line with market expectations, contrary to some of the sizeable beats/misses from the other major banks. Here are the key numbers:

• Unaudited cash NPAT of $2.6bn, flat vs. 1H25 quarter average but up 6% year-on-year vs. $2.59 billion consensus (in-line)

• Net interest margin stable vs. 1H25 quarter average (NIM was 2.08% at the 1H25 result, market was expecting 2.09% for the quarterly)

• CET1 ratio of 11.9% vs. 11.8% consensus (10 bp beat)

• Loan impairment expense of $223m vs. $187.5m (18.9% miss)

• "Portfolio credit quality has remained sound, with increases in consumer arrears and corporate troublesome and non-performing exposures."

Overall, most line items came in around market expectations.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Commonwealth Bank

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Block shares bounce on Cash App trends

[9:10 am] NYSE-listed Block shares bounced 5.8% overnight after management's presentation at the JPMorgan Conference. The stock recently experienced a one-day selloff of 26% after missing quarterly earnings expectations and downgrading its full-year guidance.

Comments from Block management suggest some potential upside to the downgraded guidance.

• "Gross profit for Cash App in April on a normalised basis, so excluding some one-time benefits ... was 13% year-over-year that compares to 7% year-over-year growth in the month of March. So meaningful improvement on year-over-year growth from March into April."

• In the first quarter, "we saw a deceleration, so we saw something that looked different from prior Q1's usually around that tax refund season."

• "We continue to believe that our guidance, which includes a softening in the consumer spend environment, which we have not seen through April or even through the early part of May, which continues to also be strong, is a conservative guidance."

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Webjet receives unsolicited offer from BGH Capital

[9:00 am] Webjet has received an unsolicited non-binding offer from BGH Capital to acquire a controlling stake at 80 cents per share (which is strange because this represents a ~10% discount to the stock's 89 cent close on Tuesday).

BGH currently has a 10.8% interest in Webjet, including 4.87% held by an entity associated with Ariadne Australia which is subject to a co-operation agreement.

RBC Capital says the offer values Webjet's operating business at 10.8x FY25 NPAT, a multiple that is well-below peers and the broader market. "Shareholders likely to only entertain offers starting from $1.26 to $1.50," said RBC's Wei-Weng Chen.

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ASX to cut ~100 jobs

[8:55 am • AFR] The exchange operator is cutting 100 jobs or 8% of its workforce, as it accelerates efforts to lower expenses and redirect investment amid cost pressures and regulatory challenges.

Source: AFR

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Broker Ratings

[8:45 am] Will provide an update later for any other broker updates.

• CSL reiterated Buy ; target lowered to $304.6 from $307.3 (GS)

• Life360 retained Buy; target up to $31 from $27 (GS)

• Macmahon Holdings initiated Buy with $0.40 target (BP)

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BofA's May Global Fund Manager Survey

[8:50 am] BofA’s May Global Fund Manager Survey showcased downbeat but improving market sentiment (responses were ~75% complete before news of US-China trade talks). The key highlights include:

• Respondents seeing weaker global growth improved to a net 59% vs. 82% a month ago

• Soft landing replaced hard landing as the consensus outlook

• Average cash levels were 4.5%, still below long-term averages but lower than last month

• Trade war triggering global recession remains the largest tail risk (flagged by 62% of respondents vs. a 15-year high of 80% last month)

• Allocation to US equities dropped to a net 38% underweight (two-year low), exposure to the US dollar also hit a 19-year low 

• Long gold remained the most crowded trade, having replaced long Mag-7 last month

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Top stories from Livewire

US CPI is good news, but old news | The April CPI report showed a lower-than-expected annual headline inflation rate of 2.3%, the smallest year-over-year increase since February 2021, with core inflation steady at 2.8%. While early signs of tariff-related price increases were mild, the data may already be outdated due to recent trade policy shifts, including a U.S.-China temporary trade truce, suggesting a delayed inflationary impact and a likely prolonged Federal Reserve pause.

REA Group Q3 FY25 result – Yield resilience aids solid performance | REA Group's Q3 results showed resilient pricing power with a 12% year-on-year revenue increase to A$374 million and a 15% rise in residential buy yield, despite flat national listings and a projected Q4 slowdown. The company's focus on yield growth, driven by premium products like AMAX, continues to underpin robust cash flow and shareholder value, even as competitive pressures and softer listing volumes pose challenges.

Impressive March quarter results sends Life360’s share price up 18% | Life360's March 2025 quarterly update revealed a 32% revenue increase to $103.6 million and a 26% rise in global monthly active users to 83.7 million, driving an 18% share price surge. The company's evolution into a broader family safety ecosystem, with strong user growth, positive cash flow, and a projected $465 million revenue for 2025, underscores its robust network effects and global expansion potential.

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What's driving stocks?

[8:40 am] Global equity markets continued to catch a bid off the meaningful de-escalation in US-China tariffs. A cooler-than-expected US inflation print last night further bolstered risk appetite. The key numbers include:

• April headline inflation up 0.2% MoM (vs. 0.3% ests) and up 2.3% YoY (vs. 2.4% ests)

• April core inflation up 0.2% MoM (vs. 0.3% ests) and up 2.8% You (in-line with ests)

• Month-on-month gains for rent was steady (up 0.3%), new vehicle prices unchanged, used cars fell 0.5%, airfares fell 2.8% (adding to March’s 5.3% drop and February’s 4.0% decline), April fell 0.2% and food prices eased 0.1% 

Overall, the print showed limited tariff impact, despite analysts noting April as likely the first month to show tariff pressure on goods prices.

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Good morning!

[8:40 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures pointing to an 18 pt (+0.21%) gain, extending gains for a sixth straight session.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.