ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 3rd November

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, November 3. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Sigma Lithium refinances with $100m convertible as cash dips to $10m

[9:42 am] Brazilian lithium producer Sigma Lithium has replaced its expensive secured debt with a US$100 million convertible bond, as operations restart following a shutdown during the September quarter.

TSX-listed Sigma Lithium shares tumbled 24.2% to C$7.21, now down 67% YTD.

• The five-year convertible bond carries a 7.0% fixed coupon, replacing an 11.45% floating rate, with a 25% conversion premium into its ASX-listed CDIs and no conversion in the first 12 months

• Proceeds will repay senior secured debt with Synergy Capital, cutting short-term debt by 78% to US$28m from US$125m and pushing maturities out to 2031

• Cash of US$10m at 30 September, with a further US$62m in potential short-term liquidity from inventory sales and offtake instalments

• 3Q26 production of 7,293t of high-grade lithium concentrate, with 21,000t of lower-grade material left unprocessed due to the shutdown

• CIF China cash costs down 5% to US$518/t from US$543/t in 3Q25, with gross margin of 32%

• FY26 AISC guidance cut 6% to US$668/t from US$710/t, while FY27 guidance of US$620/t was maintained

• Production guidance of 240kt over the next 12 months was reiterated, rising to an annualised 330kt in FY27

Company page: Sigma Lithium (SGML)

Coast Entertainment flags 20%-plus returns on Dreamworld hotel precinct

[9:38 am] Dreamworld owner Coast Entertainment has told its AGM it intends to lead development of a hotel and entertainment precinct on its Coomera land, as it looks to close a steep discount to the value of its assets.

• The market implies a value of about $165m for Dreamworld and SkyPoint after adjusting for $35m in cash, a 55% discount to their independent fair value of about $348m

• A Barrenjoey review found developing the hotel and entertainment, dining and retail precinct itself is the most attractive option, though Coast remains open to capital partners

• The analysis points to levered IRRs above 20% across the hotel and precinct, with an estimated value on completion of about $330m

• Coast is not yet committing to build, with the project subject to technical studies, cost validation and a final investment decision, and the parks funded ahead of any development spend

• The core business has delivered four consecutive years of positive Theme Parks and Attractions EBITDA, with attendance still below historical levels

• “Doing nothing is not risk-free either. It means choosing to leave that value on the table. Waiting has a cost of its own. It will almost certainly never be cheaper to build than it is today”

Company page: Coast Entertainment (CEH)

Tivan upgrades Speewah fluorite resource to Indicated ahead of DFS

[9:37 am] Critical minerals developer Tivan has upgraded the majority of its Speewah fluorite resource in WA’s Kimberley to the Indicated category, a key step towards declaring Ore Reserves for its Detailed Feasibility Study.

• Total resource up 4% to 45.0Mt at 7.8% CaF2 (fluorite) for 3.5Mt of contained CaF2, with grade and contained metal broadly in line with the February 2026 estimate

• The majority of the resource is now classified as Indicated, which is required before it can be converted into Ore Reserves

• The high-grade component stands at 8.6Mt at 22.3% CaF2 for 1.9Mt of contained CaF2

• The update follows about 14km of infill, extension and metallurgical drilling in 2026, with a best hit of 76m at 21.6% CaF2 from surface, including 22m at 39.0%

• The upgraded resource will feed mine planning and production scheduling for the DFS, which is focused on producing acid-grade fluorspar (>97% CaF2) for export

Company page: Tivan (TVN)

Arena REIT firms up FY27 distribution guidance at 20cps

[9:37 am] Childcare and healthcare landlord Arena REIT has firmed up its FY27 distribution guidance after making substantial progress on resolving its exposure to tenant Edge Early Learning.

• FY27 distribution guidance of 20.0cps implies 3.9% growth on FY26, towards the top of the range provided on 19 October

• The guidance assumes all announced transactions on Edge centres receive service approvals and lease assignment consents, with no new acquisitions

• Two more early learning centres were contracted for sale in October, taking FY27 divestment proceeds to $23.1m at a 7.9% premium to book value

• Operating early learning centres sold so far have transacted at a weighted average passing yield of 5.35%

• Arena is still weighing how to use the proceeds from its capital recycling program, having regard to its balance sheet, cost of capital and capital management program

Company page: Arena REIT (ARF)

Airlines and homebuilders lead US sector gains as energy stocks slump

[9:30 am] Falling oil prices sparked a rotation across US sectors, with fuel-sensitive airlines rallying while energy producers sold off.

This is my overnight ETF watchlist, which helps me gauge how specific sectors performed in response to overnight conditions.

Oil and gas slump on Iran peace hopes, gold and silver rally

[9:27 am] Energy prices tumbled overnight as the US and Iran signalled openness to talks, while precious metals pushed higher.

• Brent crude fell 8.1% to US$104.19 a barrel and WTI dropped 6.5% to US$96.25

• European TTF gas futures fell 8.7% to €94.86 per megawatt hour

• Gold rose 1.8% to US$3,946.50/oz, while silver jumped 3.1% to US$50.64/oz

• Copper rose 0.8% to US$6.61/lb and nickel gained 1.5% to US$15,428/t

• Iron ore futures were flat at US$91.25/t

Macquarie’s quants back Point of Law to win the Melbourne Cup

[9:13 am] Macquarie’s quant desk has named Point of Law as its 2026 Melbourne Cup pick, with both its traditional and enhanced models landing on the same horse.

• Point of Law scored 81.3 points on Macquarie’s traditional quant model, ahead of So You Are on 80 and Juja Kibo on 78.8

• The enhanced model, which adds a market narrative overlay, also picks Point of Law, with Shockletz and Hopewell Rock placing second and third

• The pick is hardly contrarian, with Point of Law, a three-year-old sold by King Charles to an Australian syndicate including John Wylie, already the top pick of several bookmakers

• The quants are on a decent streak, having correctly picked Half Yours in 2025 and Without A Fight in 2023, with the note now in its 19th year

• “This year, concentrated equity markets reminded investors that dismissing market leadership can be costly, so we give greater recognition to the Cup favourites,” the analysts wrote

Source: AFR

Prediction markets back Democratic sweep as US midterms get underway

[9:10 am] Americans head to the polls with prediction markets pricing a strong chance Democrats win both chambers of Congress, though full results could take days to land.

• Kalshi, the largest prediction market by volume, gave Democrats a 94% chance of winning the House and 75% for the Senate as of Monday afternoon US time

• Democrats need a net gain of three seats to win the House and four for the Senate, where Republicans need only 50 seats given Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote

• The first polls close in Kentucky and Indiana at 6pm New York time, or 10am AEDT Wednesday, with Alaska’s final polling place closing at 5pm AEDT

• Control of the House took eight days to call in 2022, and a close result could again hinge on California, which counts mail ballots arriving up to seven days after election day

• Senate control could take longer, with Alaska’s ranked-choice count unable to begin until 18 November once all mail ballots arrive

Source: Bloomberg

Apple tops estimates on record iPhone sales, but China misses

[9:01 am] Apple posted a record September quarter revenue of US$114.5 billion, though tariff refunds flattered its earnings beat and Greater China fell well short.

The result was released after the bell, with Apple shares up 0.8% after hours.

• Revenue up 12% to US$114.50bn vs US$113.39bn ests (1% beat)

• iPhone revenue up 17% to US$57.58bn vs US$56.48bn ests (2% beat)

• Services revenue up 10% to a record US$31.57bn vs US$31.58bn ests (in line)

• Greater China revenue up 21% to US$17.54bn vs US$18.55bn ests (5% miss)

• EPS of US$2.10 vs US$1.99 ests (6% beat), including a US$0.05 boost from tariff refunds that also added 1 percentage point to gross margin

Palantir beats and raises as US commercial revenue jumps 148%

[8:58 am] Palantir CEO Alex Karp says the company has essentially doubled its business in a year, with US commercial revenue now overtaking government sales for the first time.

The result was released after the bell, with Palantir shares up 1.0% after hours.

• Revenue up 96% to US$2.31bn vs US$2.18bn ests (6% beat)

• US commercial revenue up 148% to US$984m vs US$943m ests (4% beat)

• Adjusted operating income of US$1.43bn vs US$1.26bn ests (13% beat)

• 4Q26 revenue guidance of US$2.649–2.653bn, with the midpoint 8% above ests

• FY26 revenue guidance raised to US$8.530–8.534bn, with the midpoint 4% above ests

US voters head to midterms in sour mood despite solid growth

[8:57 am] Americans go to the polls frustrated by the cost of living, even as economic growth and the jobs market hold up.

• US GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised pace in the September quarter, its strongest this year, with business investment up 12.7% on AI demand

• Unemployment was 4.2% in September and has not topped 4.5% for five straight years, the longest stretch on record

• October payrolls due Friday are forecast to more than double to 65,000, with unemployment steady at 4.2%

• Consumer prices and average hourly earnings have both risen about 5.5% since January 2025, leaving real wages flat over Trump’s second term

• The University of Michigan sentiment index sits near a record low, while the Conference Board’s confidence measure improved in October

• Construction spending fell 1.9% in September vs ests of a 0.4% rise, its steepest monthly drop since April 2020, led by a 5.5% slide in residential

• The Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% last week after hiking in September, and is expected to raise again in December, with 30-year mortgage rates above 7%

Source: Reuters

US manufacturing beats expectations but price pressures stay hot

[8:56 am] US factory activity picked up more than expected in October on strong domestic and AI-related demand, though input costs remain elevated and sentiment soured for a third straight month.

• The ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 from 54.5 in September vs ests of 54.5

• Production jumped 2.3 points to 59, its highest reading since November 2021, while new orders edged up to 55.5 from 55.3

• The prices paid index eased to 75.2 from 77.9, with aluminium, copper, diesel and memory chips still rising in price

• Employment eased to 52.4 from 52.7

• ISM’s Susan Spence said general sentiment worsened for a third month, with 66% of respondent commentary negative, led by pricing volatility, longer lead times, tariffs and the war

US automakers push Congress for permanent ban on Chinese cars

[8:55 am] A lobby group representing nearly all major automakers is urging US lawmakers to pass a permanent ban on Chinese vehicles in the short post-midterm session.

• The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents General Motors, Toyota and Volkswagen among others, wants the bill passed when Congress returns next week

• The bill passed a Senate committee in July and the House version has more than 100 co-sponsors

• Aides and lobbyists warn there may not be time to pass it before the session ends in December if Democrats win control of Congress

• The EU imported more than 1.1 million Chinese vehicles in the first eight months of 2026, more than in all of 2025

• Trump said in September he would accept Chinese carmakers building cars in the US, though a Biden-era rule effectively bars them and Chinese EVs face tariffs above 100%

Source: Reuters

Anthropic quarterly revenue jumps twelve-fold to $17bn ahead of IPO

[8:53 am] Claude maker Anthropic disclosed about US$17 billion in third quarter revenue in its amended IPO prospectus, though quarterly growth slowed sharply and spending commitments swelled to almost US$900 billion.

• Third quarter revenue up about 1,127% year-on-year to roughly US$17bn

• Quarter-on-quarter growth slowed to about 47%, from 144% in 2Q26 and 132% in 1Q26

• Nine-month revenue up about 1,200% to US$33.24bn

• Third quarter net loss almost doubled to US$23.29bn

• Nine-month net loss of US$104bn vs US$25.1bn in the same period of 2025, mostly due to fair value changes on convertible notes and derivative liabilities

• Purchase commitments and leases total about US$895.4bn, substantially all tied to compute and infrastructure

• Compute and infrastructure expenses up 329% over the nine months, an increase of US$14.4bn

Oracle leads Big Tech’s return to bond market with $20bn raise

[8:52 am] Big Tech is back in the US bond market after an almost three-month absence, with Oracle raising US$20 billion across debt and equity as investors demand higher premiums to fund the AI buildout.

• Oracle shares fell 8.8% to US$119.22 after it launched US$10bn of bonds alongside a US$10bn share sale

• Peak demand for the bond deal reached about US$38bn, nearly four times its size, with Oracle paying roughly 0.3 percentage points over its existing debt

• Meta is eyeing at least US$20bn from a multi-currency sale including its debut euro deal, after S&P Global revised its credit outlook to negative on AI capex

• Microsoft sold US$25bn of bonds last Thursday, its first US offering since 2017, while Alphabet paid up for a €6bn euro bond after its earnings miss

• The average spread on US investment-grade tech bonds has widened to 1.08 percentage points from 0.76 at the end of 2025

• “Oracle’s AI strategy carries material credit risks given the aggressive spending and uncertain path to positive cash flow,” said S&P Global Ratings

Source: Bloomberg

Morgan Stanley says US correction in its ‘final innings’

[8:51 am] Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson says the US market correction that began in June is close to an end, with Tuesday’s midterm elections set to clear a major overhang.

• Wilson noted 60% of Russell 3000 stocks have already fallen at least 20% since June, as the S&P 500 catches down to weak breadth, typically the last stage of a slump

• Large caps have typically gained 15% in the six months after midterm results, with Morgan Stanley saying a Democratic sweep is already priced in

• Wilson sees the S&P 500 heading toward 8,000 regardless of the outcome, about 6% above Monday’s close

• Morgan Stanley flagged renewed military escalation with Iran or new tariffs as the bigger risks after the vote

• Wilson does not expect the Fed to rush to cut rates, but sees relief from the US Treasury drawing its cash pile down to about US$850bn by year-end from about US$1.05tn

• “We expect near-term clearing events to provide an attractive opportunity to add risk to quality cyclicals that have de-rated as we head into 2027,” Wilson said

Source: Reuters

Oil sinks 8% as Iran’s supreme leader backs peace talks

[8:40 am] Oil posted its biggest daily fall since July after Iran’s supreme leader gave the government the green light to negotiate, stripping out much of the risk premium built up ahead of the US midterms.

• Brent fell 8.0% to US$104.30 a barrel

• Oil had rallied more than 10% in October to a six-month high as traders priced in a post-election escalation, with Trump repeatedly threatening to resume strikes after the vote

• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has granted the government certain powers to resolve the conflict through dialogue

• Trump told reporters Iran wants to make a deal and that one could happen, and signalled no when asked whether he would resume strikes after Tuesday’s vote

• Tehran wants the US naval blockade lifted, sanctions eased and frozen assets released before reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington is demanding nuclear concessions

• Khamenei has also ordered military commanders to prepare for renewed confrontation, and the International Crisis Group’s Ali Vaez described the negotiating mandate as narrow with clear red lines

• European gas futures fell almost 11% at one point, while US heating oil posted its steepest drop in six months

Nasdaq 100 enters correction as chip rout overshadows oil slump

[8:39 am] A three-day selloff in chipmakers pushed the Nasdaq 100 into a technical correction, offsetting a rally in old economy stocks as oil tumbled on US-Iran peace hopes.

• The S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541.40 and the Nasdaq dropped 1.07% to 25,164.32, after being up as much as 1.1% and 1.4% respectively earlier in the session

• The Nasdaq 100 is now down 10% from its October peak, while a gauge of chip giants has fallen 12% over three sessions

• Apple fell almost 2% ahead of its results after the bell, which beat on revenue but missed on China sales

• The 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 bps to 4.91%

Marvell sinks 13% on US$115bn Lumentum takeover

[8:38 am] Chipmaker Marvell Technology has agreed to buy optical components maker Lumentum in a deal valued at US$115 billion, one of the largest tech deals on record, but investors sold off both stocks.

• Lumentum shareholders will receive 4.5 Marvell shares for each share held, giving them about 33% of the combined group

• Marvell shares fell 12.7% to US$171.41 and Lumentum dropped 18%

• Marvell expects the deal to expand its addressable market to US$550bn, deliver more than US$1bn in annual cost synergies and be earnings accretive in the first year after closing

• “AI infrastructure is undergoing a fundamental architectural shift toward optical connectivity,” said Marvell CEO Matt Murphy

Good morning!

[8:29 am] ASX 200 futures are up 55 pts (+0.62%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Wall Street’s rebound lost steam as tech selling resumed, while the Dow held gains and cyclicals led ahead of Tuesday’s US midterm elections

  • S&P 500 (-0.51%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.76%)

  • Nasdaq (-1.07%), Dow (+0.41%), Russell 2000 (-0.21%)

• Oil suffered its steepest drop in about three months after Iran’s supreme leader approved talks with Washington and Trump signalled diplomacy would get more time

• AI financing stayed front and centre as Oracle filed a US$20bn stock and bond raise and Anthropic disclosed US$895bn in compute commitments in its revised IPO filing