ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 30th June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, June 30. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Collins Foods posts record FY26 profit as Australian KFC drives growth

[9:33 am] The fast-food operator delivered record revenue and underlying earnings, though European sales softened into early FY27.

• Revenue up 8.6% to $1.59bn vs $1.60bn ests (in line)

• Underlying EBITDA up 6.3% to $244.5m vs $242.4m ests (1% beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 13.0% to $61.4m vs $60.2m ests (2% beat)

• Statutory NPAT up 280.5% to $47.1m, lifted off a year-ago $12.4m that carried impairments and class action costs

• Final dividend of 15 cps fully franked, flat year-on-year

• Full-year dividend of 28 cps (in-line with UBS ests)

• Net debt cut to $119.6m from $137.9m, with the net leverage ratio down to 0.77 from 0.93

On the FY27 trading update (first 8 weeks): Australia total sales rose 6.7% with SSS up 4.0%, while Europe disappointed, with Germany total sales up 26.4% (including four weeks of the Munich acquisition) but SSS down 7.2%, and the Netherlands total sales down 5.2% with SSS down 7.8%, hit by Middle East conflict, high fuel prices, a heatwave and weak limited time offers lapping last year's Squid Game collaboration. FY27 capex is guided to $80-100m vs $86.2m ests, with European avian influenza impacts expected to dissipate and no cases currently detected in Australian poultry.

Company page: Collins Foods (CKF)

Deep Yellow expands Alligator Rivers footprint with Cooper Creek JV stake

[9:26 am] The uranium developer is buying ERA's half-share in a Northern Territory joint venture adjoining its existing ground in the province.

• Acquiring ERA's 50% interest in the Cooper Creek JV for $648,000 cash, with completion expected within 10 business days of satisfying conditions including government approvals

• The JV holds two exploration licence applications covering 810km2 in the northern Alligator Rivers Uranium Province, with Cameco Australia (40%, manager) and Sutton Motors (10%) the other partners

• The licences adjoin Deep Yellow's existing tenure, lifting its total ARUP holding to 4,820km2 on completion

• The deal aligns with the strategy to build out a uranium portfolio in Namibia and Australia, headlined by the shovel-ready Tumas project in Namibia

Company page: Deep Yellow (DYL)

Euroz Hartleys to sell capital markets arm to BMO for $145m

[9:24 am] The diversified financial group will become a standalone listed wealth manager after offloading its broking and capital markets business to the Canadian bank.

• Selling its Capital Markets business to BMO Financial Group for $145m cash, subject to completion adjustments

• Intends to return all post-tax proceeds to shareholders, mostly via a fully franked dividend with the balance as a capital return

• Expects FY26 group revenue of $140-142m and NPAT of $15-16m, including $4-5m of one-off transaction-related costs

• Will continue as a pure-play Private Wealth business under the Euroz Hartleys and Entrust brands, with about $5bn in funds under management and around 60 advisers

• BMO and Euroz Hartleys will enter a four-year strategic alliance to preserve research access, distribution and deal flow between the two businesses

Company page: Euroz Hartleys (EZL)

Autosports FY26 profit guidance lands well below consensus

[8:58 am] The luxury car dealer flagged a deliveries timing hit from surging electric vehicle demand outrunning supply, dragging full-year profit guidance sharply below estimates.

• Guides FY26 normalised NPBT of $51-54m vs. $71.1m ests (26% miss at the midpoint)

• BEVs jumped to more than 40% of customer orders in April, up from about 15% before March

• Orders have outpaced BEV inventory, pushing a large portion of H2 FY26 deliveries into FY27, with the imbalance expected to start unwinding late in Q1 FY27

• Operating expense ratios are temporarily elevated as costs are incurred ahead of delivery, with both expected to normalise as the order bank converts through FY27

• Gross margins remain resilient and are expected to be ahead of FY25

• FY27 growth seen supported by improved BEV supply, full-year contribution from FY26 acquisitions in Canberra, Melbourne and Adelaide, and new BEV-focused greenfield brands

A relatively negative update, given the material miss vs. market expectations. Interestingly, the downgraded guidance still represents year-on-year PBT growth of 11.4% (at the midpoint). On the plus side, the deliveries are pushed back into FY27 amid a supply/demand imbalance for EVs. Though the impacted inventory holding and higher interest costs are a clear negative.

Company page: Autosports Group (ASG)

Central banks overnight: hawkish Fed signals, PBOC easing tilt, ECB in no rush

[8:55 am] A mixed overnight run from major central banks, with US officials leaning hawkish on sticky inflation while China and the ECB signal patience.

• Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin warned inflation is too high after PCE rose 4.1% in the year to May, the most since April 2023, though he sees tentative signs price pressures may moderate and favours staying modestly restrictive

• An increasing number of Fed policymakers have warned rates may need to rise this year, having left the benchmark unchanged earlier this month

• The PBOC set its new overnight reverse repo tool at 1.25%, below the 1.35% forecast, in what some economists see as a de facto easing signal that opens the door to a loan prime rate cut as soon as next month

• ECB's Martins Kazaks said there is no rush for multiple rapid hikes, with the calming of the Iran conflict reducing the risk of second-round effects and allowing a measured, step-by-step response

China widens export curbs on Japan, targeting defence and drone makers

[8:50 am] Beijing escalated a months-long pressure campaign over Taiwan, blacklisting Japanese defence institutes and tightening dual-use restrictions on dozens of firms.

• China added 20 entities, including the National Institute for Defense Studies and units of Mitsubishi Electric and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, to its export control list

• A further 20, including Mitsui E&S, Terra Drone and units of OKI Electric, were placed on a watch list requiring tighter licensing scrutiny

• Exports involving Japanese military users or anything strengthening Japan's defence capabilities will not be approved

• The campaign began in January with a ban on dual-use exports including rare earths and permanent magnets, escalating after PM Takaichi's November comments on Taiwan

• Market reaction was mixed, with Mitsubishi Electric and Howa Machinery down 1.4% and 4.6%, while Mitsubishi Heavy and Terra Drone rose 4.9% and 1.7%

Source: CNBC

Supreme court expands Trump's firing power but keeps Cook at the Fed

[8:49 am] The court overturned a near-century-old precedent to broaden presidential control over independent agencies, while protecting the Fed's independence.

• The court rejected Trump's bid to immediately fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, reinforcing the central bank's independence

• It expanded presidential power to fire independent agency officials, overturning the 1935 Humphrey's Executor precedent in a 6-3 ruling

• Justice Sotomayor dissented, warning the decision "promises only chaos", amid unease over destabilising the economy

• The justices upheld state laws counting mail ballots arriving after Election Day, an unexpected rebuff of Trump's mail-in voting attacks

• The court denied Trump's appeal of the E. Jean Carroll verdict, leaving a US$5m payment in place

Oil tankers keep sailing through Hormuz despite weekend attacks

[8:47 am] Shipowners are still braving the world's key oil chokepoint even after two vessels were hit, a crucial sign for restoring normal crude flows.

• A trio of tankers headed inbound late Monday while two sailed out, with two more supertankers moving to depart the Persian Gulf

• Two attacks in recent days, on an oil tanker Saturday and a container ship two days earlier, made some owners more cautious though others saw no material change to risk

• Two transit routes have emerged, one in Iranian waters and one near Oman recommended by western navies, with about 80 mines in the main corridor

• The Joint Maritime Information Center lifted its regional threat level to "substantial" from "moderate", noting traffic dipped slightly but was not interrupted

• A Saudi supertanker became the first to load at Ras Tanura since the ceasefire, with three more vessels moored or recently departed from Gulf installations

Source: Bloomberg

Oil flat as Iran pushes Hormuz control before Doha talks

[8:45 am] Crude steadied near pre-war levels as conflicting US-Iran signals and Tehran's bid to police Hormuz traffic clouded the path to ending the four-month war.

• Brent settled flat overnight at US$73.58 a barrel

• Iran says it will oversee Hormuz traffic itself if Oman declines to do so jointly, and will designate any temporary transit routes

• The interim deal bars tolls for 60 days but leaves open later fees, a move opposed by the US, Europe and Gulf Arab nations

• US says talks begin Wednesday in Doha with Witkoff and Kushner attending, while Iran ruled out direct negotiations and sent only an expert delegation

• Iran's leverage may be limited while the southern Omani route stays open, with Oman and France reaffirming freedom of navigation

Maersk lifts 2026 earnings guidance on strong container demand

[8:44 am] The shipping group raised its full-year profit outlook, citing robust container demand led by Asia.

• 2026 EBITDA guidance lifted to US$8-10bn, from US$4.5-7bn previously

• Adjusted EBIT guidance raised to between US$2-4bn

• Upgrade driven by strong demand in the container market, particularly in Asia

Source: Reuters

Korea orchestrates $880bn chip and data centre push to lead AI race

[8:44 am] Seoul has marshalled record private investment from Samsung, SK Hynix and others, framing speed in chips and data centres as a matter of national survival.

• Korea is orchestrating at least 1,350 trillion won (US$880bn) of investment into chips and data centres, about 5% of 2024 GDP

• Samsung and SK Group will build two chipmaking plants each in the southwest for 800 trillion won, with chipmaking alone running at roughly $52bn a year

• A further 550 trillion won, including from Naver, will fund 8.4 gigawatts of AI data-centre capacity by 2029

• Korea aims to double memory production capacity within five years to extend its lead over rivals

• Samsung fell nearly 5% and SK Hynix ended down 1.7%, as the capex raises future oversupply risk despite signalling demand confidence

• The government flagged water and power infrastructure support but disclosed no specific policies or spending

Source: Bloomberg

Citadel warns investors underestimate Warsh's hawkish resolve

[8:38 am] Citadel Securities says markets are too sanguine on a Warsh-led Fed, with elevated inflation eroding the "Fed put" and leaving risk assets exposed.

• Investors are underestimating Chair Warsh's determination to return inflation to the 2% target and the drag that implies for risk assets, says Citadel's Nohshad Shah

• Recent oil price falls do little to weaken the case for rate hikes, with underlying inflation pressures still elevated

• The "Fed put" is fading as elevated inflation becomes a constraint, making policymakers less likely to ease on every soft patch in markets

• The AI-fuelled rally is seen as more vulnerable, signalled by falling compute prices, softer AI services spending and scrutiny of returns

Source: Bloomberg

US share sales hit record $251bn at midyear on AI-driven demand

[8:37 am] US equity issuance has smashed its 2021 peak, powered by blockbuster AI-linked listings and a pipeline that bankers expect to stay heavy into Q3.

• US IPOs and share sales reached a record $251bn through 26 June, excluding SPACs and other vehicles, topping the prior half-year high set in 2021

• SpaceX's $86.2bn listing was the largest IPO ever, while Alphabet's $85bn raise was the year's biggest non-IPO equity deal

• Weighted-average return for newly listed US companies excluding SPACs is nearing 16%, almost double the S&P 500's gain this year

• SpaceX was one of 11 US IPOs above $1bn so far this year, with JPMorgan expecting another dozen jumbo deals in the second half

• SK Hynix's planned $29bn US listing is set to kick off Q3, with a potential Anthropic mega-deal flagged for as soon as October

• Rate-cut hopes are off the table for the year and activity is likely front-loaded into Q3 ahead of November midterm volatility

Source: Bloomberg

Dow tops 52,000 for first time as Alphabet joins index

[8:37 am] US stocks rallied to start a holiday-shortened week, with chipmakers leading gains after Alphabet's Dow debut and a US-Iran pause easing geopolitical risk.

• Dow rose 0.59% to 52,182.74, the first close above 52,000, while the S&P 500 gained 1.18% to 7,440.43 and the Nasdaq jumped 2.07% to 25,820.14

• Alphabet climbed nearly 5% on its first day as a Dow member

• Comcast rose 4.4% after announcing a spin-off of its media and tech businesses into two listed companies, expected to complete in about a year

• VanEck Semiconductor ETF gained more than 3%, with Astera Labs, KLA and Applied Materials up about 16%, 12% and 11% respectively

• US and Iran agreed to pause hostilities and allow free vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz, following weekend military exchanges

• Holiday-thinned liquidity and quarter-end window dressing may amplify moves, with the US market closed Friday for Independence Day

Good morning!

[8:26 am] ASX 200 futures are up 3 pts (+0.03%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Dow closed at fresh all-time highs and above 52,000 for the first time, while the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+1.30%) also eked out a record close

• US and Iran agreed to halt weekend strikes near Hormuz and set Doha talks for Wednesday, though Tehran disputed the meeting, oil ticked up but held near pre-war lows

• Megacap tech stocks mostly higher, with sharp gains for Tesla (+8.4%), Alphabet (+4.9%) and Amazon (+3.2%)