ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 30th June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, June 30. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

ASX 200 flat as miners offset energy and bank gains

[2:10 pm] That's all for today. The ASX 200 is trading bang on breakeven, in an extremely narrow session (session high of 0.15%, low of -0.10%). Energy is on a small three-day win streak after falling ~20% from early April highs, Industrials have crept up to a three-month high and Financials have also pushed to a fresh six-week high.

Meanwhile, a bit of an opposite day, where recent 'hot' sectors like Healthcare, Staple and Discretionary take a breather. Materials sold off after a two-day bounce as commodities like gold, aluminium and nickel struggled overnight.

ASX 200 sectors today (Source: Market Index)

In the last twelve months, miners outperformed everything else by a wide margin.

ASX 200 sectors last twelve months (Source: Market Index)

. The high-flying resource sector is now struggling against a rising US dollar and potential downward pressure from the supply and chemical-input relief flowing out of the Hormuz reopening. Encouragingly, the Aussie 2-year yield has slipped to 4.43% today, its lowest since 11 March 2026.

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Best and worst performing All Ords stocks

[1:58 pm] And here are the best and worst performing S&P/All Ords constituents for FY26.

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Best and worst performing ASX 200 stocks of FY26

[1:55 pm] We'll be wrapping up the blog shortly, so here are the best and worst performing ASX 200 stocks of FY26 (with two hours till market close).

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Life360 crosses the 200-day

[1:49 pm] While the broader S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index has traded nowhere since mid-April, Life360 is now trading above the key 200-day moving average for the first time since December 2025.

The stock is now up 53% from its 12 May low but still down around 15% year-to-date.

Life360 daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Chinese lithium futures bounce

[1:22 pm] Chinese lithium futures are up 4.6% to 158,100 yuan a tonne, now flat for the past week but still down ~25% from May highs of 209,800 yuan.

Local lithium stocks are struggling to bounce, with the bellwether PLS Group down 2.4%, despite being up 1.3% earlier this morning.

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Collins Foods earnings call highlights

[1:18 pm] Management fielded questions on Australian margins, the FY31 labour cost step-up and a soft European start to FY27 on the FY26 results call.

• On the $20m annual Fair Work labour cost hit by FY31 (fully hedged), management said the FY27 impact is modest at around $1m, growing as junior rate discounts unwind, with revenue management and back-of-house automation the key offsets

• Australian second-half margins fell over 100 basis points mainly on the delivery fee structure change (from $8.95 to $3.95 across aggregators), which lifted volumes and absolute profit but diluted percentage margins, plus Q3 value investment and public holiday seasonality

• Management declined to give FY27 margin guidance but pointed to revenue leverage, productivity gains and AI-driven labour and food optimisation work with Yum! as the levers to offset 4.75% wage inflation

• On Germany's FY27 same-store weakness, management blamed longer marketing windows (7-9 weeks versus Australia's roughly 13 four-week points), pushing to adopt shorter, higher-intensity UK and Australian best practice with Yum!

• Further German bolt-on acquisitions remain possible if quality and strategically aligned, with the focus on integrating Munich and building density in three key states

Company page: Collins Foods (CKF)

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Morgan Stanley cuts oil forecast again as Hormuz reopens faster than expected

[12:11 pm] The investment bank now sees global crude swinging back to surplus, with US supply strong and Chinese demand soft.

• Dated Brent forecast cut to US$75 a barrel for Q3 and Q4, down US$15 and US$5 respectively, with all four 2027 quarters also lowered and Dated seen at US$70 by end-2027

• Analysts said high US exports and low Chinese imports remain the "twin solvers" pushing the market back to surplus, the second cut in around two weeks

• Brent futures have collapsed about 30% this quarter, heading for the biggest quarterly drop since 2020, after peaking above US$126 in April

• Morgan Stanley counted 35 oil and gas tankers exiting the Persian Gulf through Hormuz on Thursday, back in the typical 30-to-40 pre-conflict range

• Hormuz flows need only recover to about 65% of pre-conflict levels, or 11-12 million barrels a day, to balance the 2027 market

Source: Bloomberg

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Collins Foods trading lower after 7% rally

[12:07 pm] Shares in the KFC operator rallied as much as 7.7% this rally, now down around 2% after reporting a relatively mixed FY26 result.

Collins Foods intraday price chart (Source: TradingView)

The result itself was relatively in-line with market expectations.

• Revenue up 8.6% to $1.59bn vs $1.60bn ests (in line)

• Underlying EBITDA up 6.3% to $244.5m vs $242.4m ests (1% beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 13.0% to $61.4m vs $60.2m ests (2% beat)

• Full-year dividend of 28 cps (in-line with UBS ests)

• Net debt cut to $119.6m from $137.9m, with the net leverage ratio down to 0.77x from 0.93x

Though the FY27 trading update (first 8 weeks) was mixed, as Australian sales outperformed while Europe disappointed (across both Germany and Netherland sales). The lack of FY27 guidance and ongoing pricing investments and input cost pressures may be the key drivers to today's intraday weakness.

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Almost half of Australian businesses report rising operating costs in June

[11:59 am] The ABS's final Business Conditions and Sentiments survey showed cost pressures broadening even as fuel price strain eased.

• 46% of businesses reported operating expenses rose over the past four weeks, with business overheads (65%), staffing costs (40%) and upcoming finance or debt commitments (19%) the main drivers

• Fuel-reliant industries were most exposed, led by agriculture, forestry and fishing (72%), manufacturing (55%), accommodation and food services (55%) and transport, postal and warehousing (49%)

• Professional, scientific and technical services saw the sharpest overhead pressure at 84%, up 29 percentage points month-on-month, while construction rose 24 points to 60%

• Almost one third of businesses reported falling revenue, most evident in information media and telecommunications, wholesale trade, and accommodation and food services

• In response to fuel costs, 44% absorbed increases (-3 points), 15% lifted prices (+3 points) and 6% added a fuel surcharge or levy

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Australian horticulture value climbs 6.6% to $19.5bn in 2024-25

[11:58 am] The ABS's latest horticulture data showed broad gains in value across fruit, vegetables and nuts, with a sharp West Australian avocado slump and a stronger wine grape crush.

• Total horticulture value rose 6.6% to $19.5bn, led by fruit at $7.3bn (+6.1%), vegetables at $6.0bn (+5.6%) and nuts at $1.7bn (+12.8%)

• Avocado production fell to 131,000 tonnes from 150,500 tonnes, as Western Australia slumped 43.9% to 36,900 tonnes on alternate bearing, leaving Queensland the largest producer at 76,600 tonnes (+19.3%)

• Macadamia production dropped to 46,900 tonnes from 57,800 tonnes, with value down 10.0% to $181.8m as New South Wales value fell $27.1m to $37.8m

• Banana production was broadly flat at 369,000 tonnes, with value up $21.6m to $719.4m and Queensland generating 94.0% of national output

• Wine grape crush rose to 1.6 million tonnes from 1.45 million tonnes, lifting value $137.5m to $1.1bn, with South Australia contributing 47.8% of the crush

• Almonds stood out among nuts, with value up 19.6% to $1.3bn

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Gold stocks tumble

[11:12 am] Gold miners are in for a double whammy, after gold prices fell 1.8% overnight and a further 1.3% in early trade on Tuesday, to US$3,963/oz, the lowest since 5 November 2025. Prices are now down 8.1% year-to-date and down 29.1% from the brief US$5,598/oz record high on 29 January.

Gold daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Analysts' take on Karoon Energy

[11:05 am] Karoon Energy confirmed the successful restart of the SPS-92 well at Baúna on Monday, following replacement of a failed electrical submersible pump, restoring field output to a level broadly in line with expectations, with the imminent reconnection of the PRA-2 well expected to add further incremental volumes. The stock rallied 9.1% on the day.

• Morgans upgraded to Buy from Hold, raised target to $1.77 from $1.67: views the share price decline as overly pessimistic given the SPS-92 restart removes a key operational risk and the implied barrel valuation appears too discounted.

• RBC maintained Sector Perform, lowered target to $2.25 from $2.30: welcomed the strong initial production rate at SPS-92 but flagged that the capex increase materially reduces near term free cash flow alongside significant unhedged oil exposure.

• Jarden maintained Buy, lowered target to $2.25 from $2.30: attributed higher than expected intervention costs to weather delays and noted the scale of the buyback versus future growth obligations remains unclear.

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Analysts' take on Greatland Resources

[11:04 am] Greatland Resources announced a material upgrade to its group ore reserve estimate on Monday, with Telfer reserves more than doubling on a contained gold basis to 1.8Moz, driven largely by the West Dome open pit. The stock fell 0.8% on the day.

• Macquarie maintained Outperform, left target unchanged at $14.00: noted group reserves grew materially versus the prior year and anticipates further reserve growth as drilling and studies progress.

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Arafura signs binding offtake with Indian industrial group

[11:02 am] Arafura has locked in a fresh rare earths magnet feed offtake and flagged final lender credit approvals as it prepares to start construction at Nolans in September.

• Binding term sheet executed to supply up to 500tpa of rare earth magnet feed including NdPr, Dy and Tb over an initial five years, with a two-year extension option, priced off a seaborne traded index

• Offtake partner is a privately owned Indian industrial group, subject to designation under India's ~US$800m sintered rare earth magnet manufacturing scheme, with beneficiaries to be notified in Q1 FY2027

• Lenders working through final credit approvals ahead of executing project finance documentation, with EFA and KfW subscriptions to follow contractual close

• Site camp, water and power reinstatement complete following the 21 May FID, keeping construction on track to begin in September

• Arafura will no longer disclose offtake counterparty identities unless individually material, as it negotiates revised pricing, volumes and heavy rare earths inclusion with other parties

The announcement was released at 9:48 am.

Company page: Arafura Rare Earths (ARU)

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ASX 200 flat as miners offset bank and tech gains

[10:43 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is trading around breakeven as Financials and Tech gains of ~1% is offset by a broad selloff across the Materials sector. Breadth is still relatively positive, with 111 constituents (55%) trading higher.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

Miners have been in for a wild one. Since May, the sector has been experiencing these sharp 1-2 week rallies into record levels, followed by an equally sharp selloff. The latest pullback has arguably been the most bearish one, setting a lower high, undercutting the 50-day moving average (green) and now trading at a fresh two-month low.

S&P/ASX 200 Materials index daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:24 am] Neuren continues to rally after the CHMP adopted a positive opinion for its DAYBUE oral therapy for the treatment of Rett syndrome, reversing its earlier negative vote and clearing a pathway to sales in Europe. Elsewhere, defence stocks like Droneshield, Electro Optic Systems and Austal also opened broadly higher. Meanwhile, lithium, rare earth and gold stocks continue to struggle after a rough overnight session for commodities.

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OFX strategic review remains active with multiple parties engaged

[9:49 am] OFX has provided a progress update on the strategic review first announced in February, with no transaction yet secured.

• Strategic review remains active and ongoing, with continued engagement across multiple parties

• Board evaluating both organic and inorganic options to maximise shareholder value

• OFX cautioned there is no certainty the review will result in any transaction or outcome

• 1Q27 trading update scheduled for 23 July 2026, with further review updates to follow as appropriate

Company page: OFX Group (OFX)

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BMC UK sells down 10.8% stake at $2.85 per share

[9:48 am] BMC Minerals' largest shareholder has trimmed its holding via an underwritten block trade to boost liquidity and free float.

• BMC UK sold 29,534,808 CDIs, representing approximately 10.8% of issued capital, at $2.85 each

• Sale conducted as an underwritten block trade to sophisticated, professional and institutional investors

• BMC UK retains a 53.9% holding post-transaction, subject to 12, 18 and 24-month escrow periods

• CEO Michael McClelland said the sell down responds to strong investor demand and improves the likelihood of major index inclusion over time

Company page: BMC Minerals (BMC)

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Collins Foods posts record FY26 profit as Australian KFC drives growth

[9:33 am] The fast-food operator delivered record revenue and underlying earnings, though European sales softened into early FY27.

• Revenue up 8.6% to $1.59bn vs $1.60bn ests (in line)

• Underlying EBITDA up 6.3% to $244.5m vs $242.4m ests (1% beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 13.0% to $61.4m vs $60.2m ests (2% beat)

• Statutory NPAT up 280.5% to $47.1m, lifted off a year-ago $12.4m that carried impairments and class action costs

• Final dividend of 15 cps fully franked, flat year-on-year

• Full-year dividend of 28 cps (in-line with UBS ests)

• Net debt cut to $119.6m from $137.9m, with the net leverage ratio down to 0.77 from 0.93

On the FY27 trading update (first 8 weeks): Australia total sales rose 6.7% with SSS up 4.0%, while Europe disappointed, with Germany total sales up 26.4% (including four weeks of the Munich acquisition) but SSS down 7.2%, and the Netherlands total sales down 5.2% with SSS down 7.8%, hit by Middle East conflict, high fuel prices, a heatwave and weak limited time offers lapping last year's Squid Game collaboration. FY27 capex is guided to $80-100m vs $86.2m ests, with European avian influenza impacts expected to dissipate and no cases currently detected in Australian poultry.

Company page: Collins Foods (CKF)

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Deep Yellow expands Alligator Rivers footprint with Cooper Creek JV stake

[9:26 am] The uranium developer is buying ERA's half-share in a Northern Territory joint venture adjoining its existing ground in the province.

• Acquiring ERA's 50% interest in the Cooper Creek JV for $648,000 cash, with completion expected within 10 business days of satisfying conditions including government approvals

• The JV holds two exploration licence applications covering 810km2 in the northern Alligator Rivers Uranium Province, with Cameco Australia (40%, manager) and Sutton Motors (10%) the other partners

• The licences adjoin Deep Yellow's existing tenure, lifting its total ARUP holding to 4,820km2 on completion

• The deal aligns with the strategy to build out a uranium portfolio in Namibia and Australia, headlined by the shovel-ready Tumas project in Namibia

Company page: Deep Yellow (DYL)

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Euroz Hartleys to sell capital markets arm to BMO for $145m

[9:24 am] The diversified financial group will become a standalone listed wealth manager after offloading its broking and capital markets business to the Canadian bank.

• Selling its Capital Markets business to BMO Financial Group for $145m cash, subject to completion adjustments

• Intends to return all post-tax proceeds to shareholders, mostly via a fully franked dividend with the balance as a capital return

• Expects FY26 group revenue of $140-142m and NPAT of $15-16m, including $4-5m of one-off transaction-related costs

• Will continue as a pure-play Private Wealth business under the Euroz Hartleys and Entrust brands, with about $5bn in funds under management and around 60 advisers

• BMO and Euroz Hartleys will enter a four-year strategic alliance to preserve research access, distribution and deal flow between the two businesses

Company page: Euroz Hartleys (EZL)

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Autosports FY26 profit guidance lands well below consensus

[8:58 am] The luxury car dealer flagged a deliveries timing hit from surging electric vehicle demand outrunning supply, dragging full-year profit guidance sharply below estimates.

• Guides FY26 normalised NPBT of $51-54m vs. $71.1m ests (26% miss at the midpoint)

• BEVs jumped to more than 40% of customer orders in April, up from about 15% before March

• Orders have outpaced BEV inventory, pushing a large portion of H2 FY26 deliveries into FY27, with the imbalance expected to start unwinding late in Q1 FY27

• Operating expense ratios are temporarily elevated as costs are incurred ahead of delivery, with both expected to normalise as the order bank converts through FY27

• Gross margins remain resilient and are expected to be ahead of FY25

• FY27 growth seen supported by improved BEV supply, full-year contribution from FY26 acquisitions in Canberra, Melbourne and Adelaide, and new BEV-focused greenfield brands

A relatively negative update, given the material miss vs. market expectations. Interestingly, the downgraded guidance still represents year-on-year PBT growth of 11.4% (at the midpoint). On the plus side, the deliveries are pushed back into FY27 amid a supply/demand imbalance for EVs. Though the impacted inventory holding and higher interest costs are a clear negative.

Company page: Autosports Group (ASG)

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Central banks overnight: hawkish Fed signals, PBOC easing tilt, ECB in no rush

[8:55 am] A mixed overnight run from major central banks, with US officials leaning hawkish on sticky inflation while China and the ECB signal patience.

• Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin warned inflation is too high after PCE rose 4.1% in the year to May, the most since April 2023, though he sees tentative signs price pressures may moderate and favours staying modestly restrictive

• An increasing number of Fed policymakers have warned rates may need to rise this year, having left the benchmark unchanged earlier this month

• The PBOC set its new overnight reverse repo tool at 1.25%, below the 1.35% forecast, in what some economists see as a de facto easing signal that opens the door to a loan prime rate cut as soon as next month

• ECB's Martins Kazaks said there is no rush for multiple rapid hikes, with the calming of the Iran conflict reducing the risk of second-round effects and allowing a measured, step-by-step response

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China widens export curbs on Japan, targeting defence and drone makers

[8:50 am] Beijing escalated a months-long pressure campaign over Taiwan, blacklisting Japanese defence institutes and tightening dual-use restrictions on dozens of firms.

• China added 20 entities, including the National Institute for Defense Studies and units of Mitsubishi Electric and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, to its export control list

• A further 20, including Mitsui E&S, Terra Drone and units of OKI Electric, were placed on a watch list requiring tighter licensing scrutiny

• Exports involving Japanese military users or anything strengthening Japan's defence capabilities will not be approved

• The campaign began in January with a ban on dual-use exports including rare earths and permanent magnets, escalating after PM Takaichi's November comments on Taiwan

• Market reaction was mixed, with Mitsubishi Electric and Howa Machinery down 1.4% and 4.6%, while Mitsubishi Heavy and Terra Drone rose 4.9% and 1.7%

Source: CNBC

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Supreme court expands Trump's firing power but keeps Cook at the Fed

[8:49 am] The court overturned a near-century-old precedent to broaden presidential control over independent agencies, while protecting the Fed's independence.

• The court rejected Trump's bid to immediately fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, reinforcing the central bank's independence

• It expanded presidential power to fire independent agency officials, overturning the 1935 Humphrey's Executor precedent in a 6-3 ruling

• Justice Sotomayor dissented, warning the decision "promises only chaos", amid unease over destabilising the economy

• The justices upheld state laws counting mail ballots arriving after Election Day, an unexpected rebuff of Trump's mail-in voting attacks

• The court denied Trump's appeal of the E. Jean Carroll verdict, leaving a US$5m payment in place

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Oil tankers keep sailing through Hormuz despite weekend attacks

[8:47 am] Shipowners are still braving the world's key oil chokepoint even after two vessels were hit, a crucial sign for restoring normal crude flows.

• A trio of tankers headed inbound late Monday while two sailed out, with two more supertankers moving to depart the Persian Gulf

• Two attacks in recent days, on an oil tanker Saturday and a container ship two days earlier, made some owners more cautious though others saw no material change to risk

• Two transit routes have emerged, one in Iranian waters and one near Oman recommended by western navies, with about 80 mines in the main corridor

• The Joint Maritime Information Center lifted its regional threat level to "substantial" from "moderate", noting traffic dipped slightly but was not interrupted

• A Saudi supertanker became the first to load at Ras Tanura since the ceasefire, with three more vessels moored or recently departed from Gulf installations

Source: Bloomberg

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Oil flat as Iran pushes Hormuz control before Doha talks

[8:45 am] Crude steadied near pre-war levels as conflicting US-Iran signals and Tehran's bid to police Hormuz traffic clouded the path to ending the four-month war.

• Brent settled flat overnight at US$73.58 a barrel

• Iran says it will oversee Hormuz traffic itself if Oman declines to do so jointly, and will designate any temporary transit routes

• The interim deal bars tolls for 60 days but leaves open later fees, a move opposed by the US, Europe and Gulf Arab nations

• US says talks begin Wednesday in Doha with Witkoff and Kushner attending, while Iran ruled out direct negotiations and sent only an expert delegation

• Iran's leverage may be limited while the southern Omani route stays open, with Oman and France reaffirming freedom of navigation

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Maersk lifts 2026 earnings guidance on strong container demand

[8:44 am] The shipping group raised its full-year profit outlook, citing robust container demand led by Asia.

• 2026 EBITDA guidance lifted to US$8-10bn, from US$4.5-7bn previously

• Adjusted EBIT guidance raised to between US$2-4bn

• Upgrade driven by strong demand in the container market, particularly in Asia

Source: Reuters

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Korea orchestrates $880bn chip and data centre push to lead AI race

[8:44 am] Seoul has marshalled record private investment from Samsung, SK Hynix and others, framing speed in chips and data centres as a matter of national survival.

• Korea is orchestrating at least 1,350 trillion won (US$880bn) of investment into chips and data centres, about 5% of 2024 GDP

• Samsung and SK Group will build two chipmaking plants each in the southwest for 800 trillion won, with chipmaking alone running at roughly $52bn a year

• A further 550 trillion won, including from Naver, will fund 8.4 gigawatts of AI data-centre capacity by 2029

• Korea aims to double memory production capacity within five years to extend its lead over rivals

• Samsung fell nearly 5% and SK Hynix ended down 1.7%, as the capex raises future oversupply risk despite signalling demand confidence

• The government flagged water and power infrastructure support but disclosed no specific policies or spending

Source: Bloomberg

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Citadel warns investors underestimate Warsh's hawkish resolve

[8:38 am] Citadel Securities says markets are too sanguine on a Warsh-led Fed, with elevated inflation eroding the "Fed put" and leaving risk assets exposed.

• Investors are underestimating Chair Warsh's determination to return inflation to the 2% target and the drag that implies for risk assets, says Citadel's Nohshad Shah

• Recent oil price falls do little to weaken the case for rate hikes, with underlying inflation pressures still elevated

• The "Fed put" is fading as elevated inflation becomes a constraint, making policymakers less likely to ease on every soft patch in markets

• The AI-fuelled rally is seen as more vulnerable, signalled by falling compute prices, softer AI services spending and scrutiny of returns

Source: Bloomberg

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US share sales hit record $251bn at midyear on AI-driven demand

[8:37 am] US equity issuance has smashed its 2021 peak, powered by blockbuster AI-linked listings and a pipeline that bankers expect to stay heavy into Q3.

• US IPOs and share sales reached a record $251bn through 26 June, excluding SPACs and other vehicles, topping the prior half-year high set in 2021

• SpaceX's $86.2bn listing was the largest IPO ever, while Alphabet's $85bn raise was the year's biggest non-IPO equity deal

• Weighted-average return for newly listed US companies excluding SPACs is nearing 16%, almost double the S&P 500's gain this year

• SpaceX was one of 11 US IPOs above $1bn so far this year, with JPMorgan expecting another dozen jumbo deals in the second half

• SK Hynix's planned $29bn US listing is set to kick off Q3, with a potential Anthropic mega-deal flagged for as soon as October

• Rate-cut hopes are off the table for the year and activity is likely front-loaded into Q3 ahead of November midterm volatility

Source: Bloomberg

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Dow tops 52,000 for first time as Alphabet joins index

[8:37 am] US stocks rallied to start a holiday-shortened week, with chipmakers leading gains after Alphabet's Dow debut and a US-Iran pause easing geopolitical risk.

• Dow rose 0.59% to 52,182.74, the first close above 52,000, while the S&P 500 gained 1.18% to 7,440.43 and the Nasdaq jumped 2.07% to 25,820.14

• Alphabet climbed nearly 5% on its first day as a Dow member

• Comcast rose 4.4% after announcing a spin-off of its media and tech businesses into two listed companies, expected to complete in about a year

• VanEck Semiconductor ETF gained more than 3%, with Astera Labs, KLA and Applied Materials up about 16%, 12% and 11% respectively

• US and Iran agreed to pause hostilities and allow free vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz, following weekend military exchanges

• Holiday-thinned liquidity and quarter-end window dressing may amplify moves, with the US market closed Friday for Independence Day

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Good morning!

[8:26 am] ASX 200 futures are up 3 pts (+0.03%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Dow closed at fresh all-time highs and above 52,000 for the first time, while the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+1.30%) also eked out a record close

• US and Iran agreed to halt weekend strikes near Hormuz and set Doha talks for Wednesday, though Tehran disputed the meeting, oil ticked up but held near pre-war lows

• Megacap tech stocks mostly higher, with sharp gains for Tesla (+8.4%), Alphabet (+4.9%) and Amazon (+3.2%)