ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 27th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, October 27. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Fitzroy River flags more payouts after offloading Silver Mines stake

[9:48 am] Royalty company Fitzroy River plans to return more cash to shareholders after selling the Silver Mines shares it received for its Bowdens royalty, just a week after paying a special dividend.

• Fitzroy sold the Silver Mines shares at an average 11 cents

• Total realised consideration from the Bowdens sale is $15.7m before costs, below the $17.5m headline value, comprising $10m cash and about $5.7m from the shares

• A fully franked special dividend of 5.2 cents per share was paid on 21 October, a yield of about 15.2% on the pre-ex-dividend price of 34 cents

• Fitzroy has a market cap of $31.8m and held $13.1m of cash at 30 June, or about $7.5m after the roughly $5.6m special dividend

• Weeks royalty receipts fell 13% to $551,260 in FY26, with Woodside taking over as operator of the Gippsland Basin project from Esso on 1 July

• $12.3m received from Endura over the Snowy River gold royalty is held in escrow, while Fitzroy seeks NZ High Court declarations on whether the buyout option was validly exercised

• Fitzroy’s other interests include a 3% NSR over Regis Resources’ Molong project and a royalty over Buru Energy’s Rafael gas project, where Buru is targeting a final investment decision by June 2027

Company page: Fitzroy River Corporation (FZR)

Janus Electric wins $3.1m repeat US order, North American book hits 124 trucks

[9:39 am] Janus Electric, which converts heavy diesel trucks to electric using swappable battery packs, has landed a repeat order from an existing US customer.

• King Fio Trucking has ordered six more Class 8 truck onversions and six battery sets worth about $3.1m (US$2.18m), doubling its commitment to 12 trucks

  • King Fio runs container transport out of the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach

• The order is conditional on approval of California incentives, which could provide King Fio with up to US$1.6m for the six trucks

• The extra trucks will use King Fio’s existing charging and battery-swap station, avoiding the need for a second one, and are expected to generate recurring subscription revenue

• The North American order book rises to 124 trucks with a combined gross contract value of about $64.6m

• Janus expects 18 trucks to be operational in Los Angeles by 31 December, taking its total fleet to 46 across the US and Australia

Company page: Janus Electric (JNS)

Stanmore says Russian and Chinese supply shocks drove coking coal to US$285/t

[9:37 am] Stanmore says simultaneous supply shortages out of Russia and China drove a sharp rally in seaborne coking coal prices in the September quarter.

• Chinese supply was curtailed by safety inspections, caps on above-permit output and slower Mongolian border clearances, lifting seaborne imports and premiums for prompt cargoes

• Russian Black Sea exports were disrupted by vessel strikes and not fully replaced from Baltic or Far East ports, while North American terminals also faced delays

• FOB Australia premium coking coal peaked at US$285/t in the quarter

• Australian production was strong on favourable weather and idled mines restarting, but inventories are expected to be very limited after producers sold into Chinese demand

• High energy costs are squeezing steel margins, with China’s post-holiday steel output and US-China tariff talks key factors for the December quarter

• India is expected to support seaborne demand as it emerges from the monsoon and commissions new large-scale coke ovens

Company page: Stanmore Resources (SMR)

Stanmore declares deferred interim dividend as coal prices lift

[9:36 am] Stanmore has declared the interim dividend it held back at the half, after a strong September quarter brought its balance sheet close to net cash.

• ROM coal mined of 5.3Mt in the September quarter, with record quarterly output at South Walker Creek

• Saleable production of 3.4Mt, also a quarterly record at South Walker Creek

• Average sales price up 6% to US$163/t on the June quarter, as supply disruptions in Russia and China tightened the seaborne market

• Net debt improved by US$53m to US$19m, helped by a US$26m Eagle Downs stamp duty refund, with total liquidity of US$501m

• Fully franked interim dividend of 2.2 US cents per share (about US$20m), after the board deferred it at the half to preserve balance sheet flexibility

• The US$105m Moranbah South acquisition is expected to complete in the December quarter, adding 724Mt of resources next to Eagle Downs

• 2026 guidance reaffirmed, with saleable production tracking toward the top end of the range

Company page: Stanmore Resources (SMR)

Omni Bridgeway tracks at or above FY27 targets, management fees up 24%

[9:35 am] Omni Bridgeway says it is tracking at or above all of its FY27 operational targets after a strong first quarter of case completions.

• Completions of 20 generated $135.8m in proceeds at a 3.9x multiple on invested capital, or 1.9x including a 2011 legacy investment that closed in the quarter

• Management fees up 24% to $10.7m on 1Q26, with growth expected to accelerate following the Series II final close

• Cash carried interest of $9.4m, with a further $8.6m accrued on Series II funds yet to be distributed

• New commitments up 23% to $87.1m across nine investments, with a pipeline of 46 exclusive term sheets worth an estimated $416.6m

• Funds 4/5 Series II reached final close at its full US$1bn target

• Cash opex of $15.7m is tracking below the FY27 budget of $72.5–75m, though it is expected to rise in later quarters

• OBL-only cash and receivables stood at $122.5m

Company page: Omni Bridgeway (OBL)

Credit Corp reaffirms upgraded FY27 guidance, US collections up 23%

[9:34 am] Credit Corp has reconfirmed the FY27 guidance it upgraded in August after buying HSBC Australia’s credit card run-off book, a deal that reversed the soft debt purchasing outlook that sent shares down ~7% at its full-year result on 4 August.

• US collections up 23% to $75m in 1Q27, with productivity up 16% to $516

• AU/NZ collections up 6% to $68m, while productivity fell 7% to $311

• Ledger investment guidance of $300–380m vs $302m in FY26, lifted from $200–280m on the HSBC deal

• Gross lending guidance of $445–495m vs $424m in FY26

• NPAT guidance of $112–120m vs $106m in FY26, a record result and 10% growth at the midpoint, with 1H NPAT of $45–55m

• EPS guidance of 164–176 cents vs 155 cents in FY26

Company page: Credit Corp (CCP)

Alcidion launches buyback of up to 10% of shares

[9:20 am] Hospital software provider Alcidion has launched an on-market buyback, saying its stronger financial profile now gives it room to return capital alongside growth investment.

• Alcidion will buy back up to 10% of its issued capital, or about 135m shares, from around 10 November for up to 12 months

• The 10% limit is a cap rather than a target, with purchases to be made selectively depending on the share price, available cash and other investment opportunities

• Cash reserves were $20.6m at 30 June 2026

• The buyback sits alongside investment in its Miya platform, expansion into new markets and potential acquisitions under a broader capital allocation framework

• Chair Rebecca Wilson said the decision “reflects confidence in Alcidion’s outlook and the value of the business”

Alcidion shares are down 4.7% year-to-date and up just 2% over the past 12 months, despite a solid growth track record. Its FY26 result showed revenue up 27% to $51.6m and operating cash flow up 19% to $6.8m, while contracted revenue for FY27 had already risen 32% to $44.9m by 30 June. With management also expecting FY27 growth to outperform FY26, it’s easy to see why the board thinks buying back its own shares is a good use of capital.

Company page: Alcidion (ALC)

Cedar Woods reaffirms FY27 profit guidance as sales slump 57%

[9:15 am] Cedar Woods says it remains on track for record FY27 earnings despite a sharp drop in sales, with most of this year’s revenue already locked in.

• Gross sales down 57% to 167 on 1Q26 and down 24% on the June quarter, as buyers pulled back on successive RBA rate rises, cost-of-living pressures and tax reforms

• Sales have shown signs of improvement in Q2 to date, with more stage releases and increased marketing planned

• Presales of more than $763m, in line with pcp, with $380m expected to settle in FY27, $316m in FY28 and $67m in FY29

• Settlements of 311 were ahead of budget, tracking toward the FY27 target of 1,100–1,200

• Several acquisition sites are under negotiation or in due diligence as softer conditions create opportunities, backed by $330m of corporate finance facilities

• FY27 NPAT guidance of about $75m reaffirmed, implying 15% growth, with more than 90% of forecast revenue already settled or presold

Company page: Cedar Woods Properties (CWP)

Perseus misses on production and costs, reaffirms FY27 guidance

[9:12 am] Perseus Mining’s September quarter fell short of UBS estimates on both production and costs, though the gold miner says it remains on track for full-year guidance.

• Gold production of 92,551oz vs 101koz ests (8% miss), though ahead of the company’s internal plan

• AISC up 5% to US$2,035/oz from Q4FY26 vs US$1,867/oz ests (9% miss), on higher processing costs from major planned maintenance across all sites

• Gold sales of 99,661oz at an average realised price of US$3,881/oz

• Notional operating cash flow of US$171m on an average cash margin of US$1,846/oz

• Cash and bullion of US$900m, plus listed securities worth US$338m

• FY27 guidance reaffirmed at 420–480koz at AISC of US$1,835–2,070/oz, with production rates expected to lift through the year

• Nyanzaga is 88.4% complete and on track for first production by January 2027, while Yaouré’s CMA Underground reached commercial production

Company page: Perseus Mining (PRU)

Elevra Lithium cuts unit costs 14% as NAL mines record ore

[9:10 am] Elevra Lithium cut unit costs sharply in the September quarter as record ore volumes at North American Lithium kept production near all-time highs.

• Ore mined up 25% to a record 466,499 wmt at North American Lithium (NAL), as mining moved into thicker veins with less waste stripping

• Spodumene concentrate production up 1% to 54,907 dmt at 5.1% grade, the second-highest quarter on record

• Spodumene sales of 58,134 dmt generated revenue of US$74m

  • SC6 adjusts the price to the 6% lithium oxide benchmark grade

• Average realised price of US$1,276/dmt FOB (US$1,524/dmt SC6), provisionally priced off 30 September spot indices with final settlement in the December quarter

• Unit operating costs down 14% to US$780/dmt from US$907/dmt in the June quarter, for an operating cash margin of US$476/dmt

• Cash up US$63m to US$319m, with net cash rising to US$240m from US$200m, before about US$71m from the Ewoyaa sale completed this week

• Elevra signed a 240,000 dmt offtake with LG Energy Solution in October, after a NAL supply deal with Mangrove Lithium carrying a US$1,000/t SC6 floor price

Company page: Elevra Lithium (ELV)

Serko flags guidance upgrade as room nights accelerate

[9:07 am] Serko, which makes online booking and expense software for business travellers, will lift its FY27 income guidance at next month’s result after first-half hotel bookings ran ahead of expectations.

• 1H27 trading was stronger than anticipated, driven by an acceleration in completed room nights, with momentum expected to continue into the second half

• Serko expects a modest upgrade to FY27 total income guidance of $128–134m when it reports 1H27 results on 16 November

• Total spend is tracking toward the midpoint of its $132–140m guidance range

• Positive free cash flow is expected for both 1H27 and FY27

• Its US corporate initiative is not expected to meaningfully contribute to FY27 income, with the core business now the main driver of growth

NZX-listed Serko shares are up 5.9% to NZ$1.07, at the time of writing.

Company page: Serko (SKO)

HSBC’s Kettner ends ‘max bullish’ stocks call ahead of midterms

[8:58 am] One of Wall Street’s most bullish strategists has stepped back from equities, adding to a chorus of caution ahead of the 3 November US midterms.

• HSBC’s Max Kettner cut stocks to neutral from maximum overweight for the first time since mid-March and moved to overweight developed-market sovereign bonds

• Kettner cited AI regulation risk under a Democratic sweep and renewed Middle East tensions, saying “we just can’t have the same level of conviction any longer”

• Kettner remains bullish on 2027, saying credible progress toward ending the Iran war would be an all-clear for virtually all asset classes

• RBC’s Lori Calvasina sees a 5–10% S&P 500 pullback to 7,000–7,400 as the 10 largest stocks lag, but kept her 12-month target of 8,150

• BofA’s Michael Hartnett expects the risk-off mood to run well into November, while Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the midterms as a clearing event for further gains

• Apollo’s Torsten Slok said AI has delivered zero financial payoff outside tech, with revenue per worker and margins flat for the rest of the S&P 500

Source: Bloomberg

Oil eases as regional powers push for peace in Tehran, Trump nears ‘decision time’

[8:56 am] Oil pulled back from near six-month highs as Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials held talks in Tehran, though the threat of renewed US strikes after the midterms remains.

• Brent fell 1.2% to US$115.19 a barrel

• Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials met Iranian leaders in Tehran, the first high-level contact since the three signed the Mecca defence pact in August, and agreed to continue talks

• Pakistan’s army chief presented Iran with a solution that would offer something to both Washington and Tehran, with Trump’s go-ahead, a Pakistani official told Reuters

• Trump said it’s “getting to be decision time” on whether to make a deal or “finish it off”, naming the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site as a potential target

• Iran wants the US port blockade lifted and oil sanctions removed before discussing its nuclear program, while VP JD Vance says Iran must cut enrichment

• The Houthis said they attacked pumping stations on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and Riyadh airport, while Egypt’s parliament authorised its military to help defend the kingdom

• The US has sent a third aircraft carrier group toward the Gulf, while Iranian officials say Tehran has plans to attack Gulf undersea cables if strikes resume

• The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 282.6m barrels, the lowest since 1982, with oil up about 12% this month

Bank of Canada and BoE edge toward hikes on energy inflation fears

[8:55 am] Central banks in Canada and the UK are preparing to tighten pre-emptively to stop the oil shock spilling into broader prices.

• The Bank of Canada is expected to lift its overnight rate 25bp to 2.5% on Wednesday, its first hike since July 2023, with 19 of 34 economists polled by Reuters tipping a move

• Canadian inflation rose to 3.1% in September, driven almost entirely by energy, while core measures eased below 2%

• Bank of England officials are the most hawkish since early 2023 on Bloomberg’s BOESPEAK sentiment index, when UK inflation was running at 10%

• Markets price a near-100% chance of a BoE hike to 4% on 5 November and at least three more by July, after the MPC split 6–3 to hold in September

Brazilian stocks crater after Lula wins fourth term

[8:54 am] Brazilian stocks plunged after leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Sunday’s presidential runoff.

• Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8% to 48.2%, the first time since 1989 a candidate has won the runoff after trailing in the first round

• Bolsonaro refused to concede and said he would seek to annul the result, Reuters reported

• The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF plunged nearly 20% in overnight trade before paring losses to 18%

Meta seeks up to US$95bn in one of the largest equity raises in history

[8:54 am] Meta is tapping the market for as much as US$95bn to fund its AI infrastructure push, just hours before Anthropic’s IPO filing went public.

• The raise includes a US$35bn offering of common and preferred stock, plus an at-the-market program of up to US$60bn that lets Meta sell new Class C non-voting shares over time

• The upfront offering comprises US$22.5bn of Class A shares and 250m depositary shares in mandatory convertible preferred stock

• Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom have agreed to buy up to US$5bn of the common shares between them

• Meta shares slipped 1.7% in early New York trade and were down 2.7% this year to Friday’s close

• Alphabet raised up to US$85bn in equity earlier this year, and former Barclays ECM co-head David Erickson warned “at some point there’s going to be an oversupply”

Microsoft offers voluntary buyouts to 60,000 staff ahead of earnings

[8:52 am] Microsoft is offering voluntary exits to roughly 60,000 employees as it reshapes the business around AI, two days before its quarterly results.

• The offer covers employees at level 70 and below in the US, Canada, India and the UK, including some senior staff

• It follows a voluntary retirement program in May that offered eight to 39 weeks of base pay depending on role and tenure

• Microsoft plans to spend US$190bn on capex in 2026, largely tied to AI

• Shares rose 1.54% to US$532.60, with Wednesday’s result to include updates on capex and Azure growth

Source: Yahoo Finance

Tesla rallies 5% as SpaceX merger hopes push sell ratings to 11-year low

[8:50 am] Barclays became the latest broker to turn more bullish on Tesla as a tie-up with SpaceX edges closer.

• Tesla shares rose 5.2% but remain down 13% year-to-date vs a 12% gain for the S&P 500

• Barclays upgraded Tesla to overweight, calling the anticipated merger a key part of the bull case, after BNP Paribas and CLSA dropped their sell ratings last week

• BNP lifted its target to US$420 from US$266, solely reflecting a higher chance of SpaceX acquiring Tesla

• Only five of 60 analysts tracked by Bloomberg rate Tesla a sell, the lowest share since early 2015 and down from 15 of 71 on 1 January

• Tesla and SpaceX boards have formed special committees to study a deal, which some analysts say could create a US$3.6tn AI conglomerate

Source: Bloomberg

Anthropic files for Nasdaq IPO with first-half revenue up 1,304%

[8:41 am] Anthropic has made its IPO prospectus public ahead of a Nasdaq listing under the ticker ANT, showing revenue growth strong enough to deliver its first quarterly operating profit.

• 1H26 revenue up 1,304% to US$16.3bn from US$1.16bn in 1H25, already well above the US$4.6bn booked across all of 2025

• 2Q26 revenue more than doubled to US$11.6bn from US$4.7bn in 1Q26

• 2Q26 operating income of US$974m vs a US$1.7bn loss in 1Q26, as compute costs rose a slower 65% to US$5.6bn

• 1H26 net loss widened to US$80.7bn from US$13bn in 1H25, including a US$72.4bn non-cash charge as its convertible notes rose in value

• Compute and infrastructure spend up 283% to US$8.9bn in 1H26, though it fell to about 55% of revenue

• Net revenue retention is about 900%, with roughly 250 customers paying at least US$10m a year and 79% of 3Q revenue coming from outside the top five customers

• Anthropic does not expect to repeat 2025’s roughly 1,000% growth, citing a maturing AI market, more competition and safety limits on model releases

Anthropic eyes up to US$1.75tn valuation ahead of November roadshow

[8:41 am] Anthropic expects its IPO to match or beat SpaceX’s record-setting listing, with investors signalling a valuation well above its last private round.

• Investors have pencilled in a fair valuation of about US$1.4–1.5tn following the company’s investor day, with up to US$1.75tn seen as achievable, Bloomberg reports

• The last private round valued Anthropic at US$965bn after a US$65bn raise, up from US$380bn in February and ahead of OpenAI, which is expected to list in early 2027

• Formal marketing could begin as soon as the week of 9 November, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading a 22-bank syndicate and the offering size yet to be disclosed

• The lockup is split into more than 20 unlock windows over a year, with some employees able to sell from day one and further expiries on days 27, 48, 62 and 76

• A valuation in that range would qualify Anthropic for Nasdaq-100 fast entry after 15 trading days, forcing index funds such as QQQ to buy the stock

• SpaceX fell about 15% in its first six sessions after joining the Nasdaq-100 in July and still sits about 2% below its US$150 first-day open

Anthropic’s US$430bn compute bill a boon for Broadcom, Google and Amazon

[8:41 am] Anthropic has locked in about US$430 billion of compute deals it can’t cancel, making it one of the biggest sources of future revenue for the cloud giants.

• Broadcom leads the non-cancellable deals at about US$161bn, ahead of Google at US$115bn, Amazon at US$110bn and Microsoft at US$45bn, per Yahoo Finance calculations

• The commitments equal about 22% of both AWS’s US$496bn and Google Cloud’s US$514bn backlogs, and 6.6% of Microsoft’s US$678bn commercial backlog

• Named commitments reach about US$637bn including cancellable deals, such as up to US$120.5bn with SpaceX’s AI unit into 2029 and about US$86bn with AI cloud providers Nscale and Lambda

• Google has agreed to provide up to US$20bn in extra financing, which could be cut by up to US$10bn if it buys shares alongside the IPO

• Amazon holds US$6.2bn of convertible notes that could become about 1.84bn shares on listing, plus up to US$15bn of extra financing tied to compute milestones

• Anthropic spent just US$482m on its own property and equipment in 1H26, though its leased, dedicated data centres under Anthropic Direct will take a growing share of compute spend

Anthropic flags Taiwan, data centre backlash and ‘existential’ risks in prospectus

[8:41 am] Anthropic’s prospectus runs to nearly 100 pages of risk factors, spanning chip supply concentration, regulation and the potential for its own models to act beyond human control.

• Anthropic warned its models could act in unintended or autonomous ways and pose “catastrophic or existential risks to humanity” if misused or given high autonomy

• The insurance industry as a whole may not be large enough to cover Anthropic’s liability in a catastrophic AI incident, the filing suggests

• Any disruption to TSMC or Taiwan’s chip supply would hurt the business, and it also relies on just three memory makers in SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron

• Tighter AI regulation and political backlash over its safety stances were flagged, after clashes with the Trump administration and US export controls earlier this year

• Data centre opposition could limit its access to power, with 106 US projects worth about US$198bn blocked or delayed in 1H26, according to monitor Data Center Watch

Chipmakers lead Wall Street higher as Anthropic filing revives AI trade

[8:40 am] US stocks opened a week packed with Big Tech earnings and central bank decisions higher, as Anthropic’s IPO filing sparked a rebound in beaten-up chipmakers.

• The S&P 500 gained 0.7% to 7,676.77, the Nasdaq rose 0.82% to 26,169.38 and the Dow added 0.28% to 52,361.58, after back-to-back weekly losses for the S&P and Nasdaq

• The iShares Semiconductor ETF rose 2.85% but remains about 25% below its high and down 13% this month, with AMD up 2.8%, Nvidia 2.4% and Broadcom 2.3%

• Consumer discretionary and tech led with gains of 1.7% and 1.1%, while communication services hit its lowest since June 2025 as Verizon fell 3.2% after its results

• Neocloud stocks bounced, with CoreWeave up almost 2% and Iren up 2.1%, despite Elon Musk warning more than 200 companies in the sector face “guppy-level death”

• Fed funds futures price a 90% chance the Fed holds at 3.75–4% on Wednesday, with Alphabet and Microsoft reporting after the close that day and Amazon on Thursday

Good morning!

[8:31 am] ASX 200 futures are down 6 pts (-0.07%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Wall Street started a busy week higher as chipmakers led a revival in the AI trade ahead of Big Tech earnings and Wednesday's Fed decision

  • S&P 500 (+0.70%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.35%)

  • Nasdaq (+0.82%), Dow (+0.28%), Russell 2000 (+0.38%)

• Anthropic made its IPO filing public, revealing US$16.3bn in first-half revenue and an US$80.7bn paper loss ahead of a Nasdaq listing as soon as November

• Oil eased from near six-month highs as Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials held talks in Tehran, while Trump said he is nearing a decision on a deal or renewed strikes on Iran