Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, June 24. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 rallies, erasing five sessions of losses

[4:40 pm] The market's recent weakness always carried an eerily bullish undertone — several consecutive sessions of modest declines that barely registered as losses. Today, that underlying strength emerged as the S&P/ASX 200 surged 0.95%, closing near session highs. Materials (+1.98%), Financials (+1.89%) and Technology (+1.09%) led the rally, while defensives and energy stocks lagged.

Market breadth told the story of broad-based strength, with 144 S&P/ASX 200 constituents (72%) finishing flat or higher despite some pockets of weakness.

Here are some of the highlights from today's session:

• Commonwealth Bank rallied 2.0% to close at a record $188.13. The stock now trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.1.

• Pilbara Minerals finished 6.6% higher after Chinese lithium carbonate futures rallied as much as 4.5% in the afternoon, to 61,651 yuan a tonne

• Fund managers including GQG Partners, HMC Capital and Pinnacle Investment Management all finished 5-6% higher on easing geopolitical tensions

• Energy stocks and refiner names gave back recent gains, led by Woodside (-6.5%), Viva Energy (-3.2%) and Beach Energy (-2.9%)

• Virgin closed at $3.23 or 11.3% above its IPO offer price of $2.90. Not a bad debut

• Greatland Gold also made its ASX debut, closing at $7.30 or 10.6% above its offer price of $6.60

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Treasury Wine fades 6% gain

[3:40 pm] Treasury Wine Estates briefly rallied 6.2% in early trade after an investor update that highlighted:

• Reiterated FY25 EBITs guidance of $770m

• Intention to announce on-market share buyback of up to 5% of issued capital at its upcoming FY25 result

• Business to transition to luxury-led divisional operating model from FY26

• Guided to low-to-mid double digit EBITs growth for Penfolds in FY26

The stock struggled to hold onto early gains as the FY25 guidance was only reiterated, buyback remains subject to Board approval and the FY26 Penfolds guidance was weaker than previous expectations.

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Greatland Gold rallies 11% on debut

[3:12 pm] Virgin might be capturing all the headlines, but Greatland Gold quietly made its ASX debut at 1:00 pm AEST.

Price action has been relatively quiet after an initial spike. The stock is currently trading at $7.35 or 11.3% above its IPO offer price of $6.60.

Greatland Gold is dual-listed on the London Stock Exchange (AIM: GGP), with a market cap of approximately $3.2 billion. Here are some insights about the company:

• Havieron Acquisition and Ownership: Greatland acquired full ownership of the Havieron gold-copper project and the Telfer gold-copper mine from Newmont in 2024, consolidating a major asset base in WA's Paterson Province.

• Telfer Operations: Telfer, an operational mine since 1977 with over 15Moz gold produced, delivered 90,172oz gold and 3,511t copper in Q1 2025 at an AISC of A$2,126/oz, generating A$253M in cash flow, boosting GGP’s cash balance to A$398M by March 31, 2025.

• Telfer Production Outlook: FY25 guidance projects 196,000–210,000oz gold at A$2,100–A$2,250/oz AISC, with a two-year outlook (FY26–FY27) targeting 280–320koz gold annually, extending the mine plan by 18 months to FY27.

• Havieron Development: Havieron, a world-class gold-copper project with 7.0Moz gold and 275kt copper in Mineral Resources, is 80% advanced in underground access development, with ore processing planned for FY28 using Telfer’s infrastructure, pending the Havieron Feasibility Study completion in Q4 2025.

• Major shareholders: Newmont is the company's second largest shareholder (9.95%)

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Robotaxi mania sends Tesla stock 8.2% higher

[2:23 pm] Shares in retail investor favourite Tesla jumped 8.2% to $US348.68 on Monday, after the electric vehicle pioneer launched its robotaxi service in a ring-fenced area of Austin, Texas, USA.

The robotaxis did include a Tesla employee or safety passenger in the front seat, so perhaps don't qualify as real robotaxis, but the company argues this is the first step to dominating the space. It faces competition from Waymo that's already doing around 250,000 actual driverless taxi rides per week in the US.

The next big updates from Tesla will be delivery numbers and earnings for the June quarter.

By Tom Richardson.

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Fed's Bowman open to lower US rates, Trump labels Powell "moron"

[2:08 pm] Comments from Federal Reserve vice chair for supervision Michelle Bowman helped fuel some weakness in the US dollar and strength in equities overnight as she indicated support for potential rate cuts.

“Should inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting in order to bring it closer to its neutral setting and to sustain a healthy labor market," Ms Bowman was quoted as saying.

The policymaker added she sees "only minimal impact" on inflation from trade policy and views that the balance of risks have shifted.

The call will please US President Trump who recently labelled US Fed chairman Jerome Powell a "total and complete moron" for not easing US borrowing rates.

By Tom Richardson.

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Interest rates, energy prices fall on proposed Middle East peace

[1:43 pm] A proposed Middle East peace deal has sent the yield on the benchmark risk-free rate the US 10-year government bond down 4 basis points to 4.34% since the weekend.

Australian government bond yields are also down today, with 10-years off 5 basis points to 4.16% and 1-year bonds down 2 basis points to 3.40%.

The sudden fall in energy prices as a result of the peace deal is causing traders to decrease the likelihood of higher-for-longer interest rates and inflation.

This is also generally positive for equities with the S&P/200 higher this afternoon and US equity futures also pointing to gains at the opening bell.

By Tom Richardson.

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RBC says Collins Food result tops expectations

[1:25 pm] Shares in KFC-merchant Collins Foods surged 18% this afternoon as its guidance for FY 2025 earnings beat the market's expectations.

"Australian revenue growth appears to be supported by new store openings, with Australia tracking ahead of RBC [estimates] expectations on total revenue growth," RBC said.

The broker added that the market is most likely cheering significantly better-than-expected margins and operating profits.

By Tom Richardson.

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Virgin partner and major shareholder Qatar Airways benefits from peace deal

[1:12 pm] Virgin Australia's second-largest shareholder Qatar Airways is a key beneficiary of the proposed peace deal announced between Israel and Iran this morning.

Investors in Virgin will hope the deal holds after Qatar came under missile attack from Iran recently.

As a Qatar Airways partner, Virgin offers regular flights to Doha Airport often on transit for travellers to Europe.

Virgin stock is up 8% to $3.13 in early trade.

By Tom Richardson.

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Dexus provides portfolio valuation update

[12:59 pm] Dexus has provided an afternoon update regarding portfolio valuations, with its portfolio recording a slight increase in book values. Here are the key takeaways:

• Asset Valuation Update: All 177 assets (29 office, 148 industrial) were externally valued as of June 30, 2025, resulting in a total estimated value increase of ~$55M (+0.4%)

• Office Portfolio Performance: The office portfolio saw a modest value increase of approximately +0.3%.

• Industrial Portfolio Performance: The industrial portfolio experienced a stronger value increase of approximately +0.9%.

• Capitalisation Rate Movement: The weighted average capitalisation rate for the stabilised portfolio slightly expanded by ~1 basis point, from 6.02% to 6.03%, over the six-month period.

• Dexus Bloc Legal Update: The NSW Supreme Court rescheduled a hearing related to Dexus Bloc’s interest in Australia Pacific Airports Corporation to November 10–21, 2025, from the original August 11–14, 2025, due to amended pleadings and cross-claims by Dexus Bloc shareholders.

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Virgin trading sideways

[12:35 pm] Virgin has largely been trading around the $3.13-3.16 mark since listing.

Here are some of its key metrics from the prospectus:

• Indicative market cap at the offer price ($2.90): $2.3 billion

• Pro forma adjusted net debt: $1.31 billion

• Enterprise value: $3.62 billion

• EV/pro forma underlying FY25e EBITDA: 3.4x (Qantas trades at FY25e EV/EBITDA of ~4.6x)

• Offer price/pro forma underlying FY25 net profit: 7.0x (Qantas trades at ~10.1x)

The price action reminds me of the Guzman Y Gomez IPO on 20 June 2024. The stock experienced a sizeable gap up from the IPO offer price, but spent most of its debut session trading within a very narrow range.

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Virgin opens 8% above IPO price

[12:00 pm] Virgin listed on the ASX at 12:00 pm AEST, opening at $3.12 or 7.5% above its IPO offer price of $2.90.

View Virgin's company page, announcements and financials here.

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Findi reiterates India IPO

[11:30 am] Findi has appointed DAM Capital Advisors and Ambit Private as Book Running Lead Managers for the IPO of its Indian subsidiary, Transaction Solutions International (TSI).

"The IPO of TSI is currently targeted for completion by the end of calendar year 2026. This timeline aligns with Findi’s strategic roadmap to unlock shareholder value following the integration of recent acquisitions and the continued scaling of its payments and ATM businesses in India," the company said in a statement.

The current indicated IPO valuation for TSI is currently 4-5.1bn rupees (A$727-926m) pre-money. Findi trades at a market cap of approximately $250 million.

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Small caps making moves

[11:00 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers.

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Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:30 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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Collins Foods shares surge

[10:19 am] Shares in the KFC operator surged 24% in early trade after reporting a clean sweep of better-than-feared numbers for FY25. As reported earlier (FY25 results vs. Macquarie estimates):

• Revenue up 2.1% to $1.52bn, in-line with Macquarie estimates

• Underlying EBITDA flat at $228.5m vs. $219.4m ests (4.1% beat)

• Underlying NPAT down 14.8% to $51.1m vs. $44.3m ests (15.3% beat)

• Fully franked final dividend of 15 cents per share vs. 10.2 cents ests (47% beat)

• Total FY25 dividend down 7.1% to 26 cents per share, at a payout ratio of 59.9%

The stock is now trading close to breakeven for the past twelve months, after suffering a drawdown of ~15% amid challenges with cost inflation and poor sales growth in Germany.

Another driver behind today's rally is short covering. Short interest in the stock has surged from around 0.8% last December to record levels of 4.49%.

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Gold under pressure

[9:53 am] Gold prices slumped 0.60% to US$2,646 per ounce in early Tuesday trading, weighed down by easing Middle East tensions. The weakness reflects the limited impact from weekend US military strikes, Iran's restrained response, and Trump's morning announcement that Israel and Iran have agreed to a 12-hour ceasefire — with the conflict expected to end within 24 hours.

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Veris returns to profitability

[9:49 am] Veris says it expects to deliver a net profit before tax between $1.8-2.0 million, a significant turnaround from a $4.4 million statutory loss reported in FY24.

The company ($26m market cap) is provider of spatial data services to private and public sector clients across the infrastructure, resources, utilities, government and defence sectors.

The trading update also highlighted:

• The Board will consider payment of an FY25 dividend

• The Board see significant value at current share price levels and will continue the use of the market share buyback

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Veris (VRS)

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Energy stocks set to slide

[9:43 am] Energy stocks are set to give back recent gains after a sharp pullback in oil prices overnight. Since 4:00 pm AEST on Monday, Brent crude is down around 10% (from US$78.07 a barrel to US$70.33).

Energy heavyweights are currently sharply lower in pre-market, including Woodside (-3.29%), Beach Energy (-2.55%) and Karoon Energy (-4.78%).

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Collins Foods delivers better-than-feared result

[9:35 am] KFC operator Collins Foods reported an unsurprisingly soft FY25 result but pointed to an improved FY26. Here are the key highlights (vs. Macquarie forecasts):

• Revenue up 2.1% to $1.52bn, in-line with Macquarie estimates

• Underlying EBITDA flat at $228.5m vs. $219.4m ests (4.1% beat)

• Underlying NPAT down 14.8% to $51.1m vs. $44.3m ests (15.3% beat)

• Fully franked final dividend of 15 cents per share vs. 10.2 cents ests (47% beat)

• Total FY25 dividend down 7.1% to 26 cents per share, at a payout ratio of 59.9%

• "Encouragingly, tax cuts and lower interest rates are beginning to support improvements in consumer sentiment, with same store sales improving in the second half in Australia and the Netherlands. Growing sales, deflation in key input costs in Australia, and operational efficiency gains assisted in delivering a stronger H2 performance with revenues, EBITDA and EBIT all up on the prior year," said CEO Xavier Simonet

At a glance, Collins reported a fairly clean sweep of better-than-feared numbers and a higher-than-expected dividend. Its also worth noting that short interest in the stock is at record levels of 4.49%.

In terms of outlook, Collins reported:

• Sales growth in the first weight weeks of FY26 improved, with KFC total sales up 4.9% in Australia, 2.6% in Netherlands and 2.4% in Germany

• KFC same store sales for the same period was 1.6% for Australia, -0.2% in the Netherlands and 1.3% in Germany

• Targeting low-to-mid teens NPAT growth for FY26 vs. Macquarie ests of 25.3% year-on-year growth be tween FY25-26

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Collins Foods (CKF)

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Trump says Iran and Israel agree to ceasefire

[9:24 am] Earlier this morning, Trump posted on Truth Social:

"CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!"

Though Bloomberg reported "no immediate comment from Iran or Israel."

Regardless, the news is driving key commodities lower in early trade on Tuesday, including:

• Gold -0.43% to US$3,352/oz

• WTI crude -3.87% to US$64.64 a barrel

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Fletcher Building dives on FY25 guidance

[9:20 am] Fletcher Building CEO Andrew Reding says "we expect FY25 EBIT (before Significant Items) to be in the range of $370m to $375m inclusive of the $16.4m loss incurred as a consequence of the settlement reached with NZTA."

The midpoint ($372.5m) represents a 5% miss vs. Citi expectations (as at 18-Jun) of $392.1 million.

NZX-listed Fletcher Building shares are currently down 5.1% to NZ$2.92 or the lowest since 5-Feb.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Fletcher Building (FBU)

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Analysts bullish on Metcash

[9:15 am] Metcash reported its FY25 results on Monday, where numbers landed at the top end of its recent guidance upgrade (10-Jun).

• Revenue up 8.9% to $17.3bn

• Underlying EBIT up 2.3% to $507.8m vs. $504-508m guidance

• Underlying profit after tax down 2.4% to $275.5m vs. $273-277m guidance

• Final dividend of 9.5 cents per share vs. UBS estimates of 8.9 cents (6.7% beat)

The result highlighted a resilient performance for Food and Liquor segments, while its Hardware business showed early signs of recovery. Numbers for the first seven weeks of FY26 (May-Jun) highlighted further momentum for Food and stabilisation for Hardware.

Most analysts are Buy-rated on the stock and raised their target prices after the result, including:

• UBS retained Buy, raised target to $4.25 from $4.00

• Jarden retained Overweight, raised target to $4.10 from $4.00

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Wall Street also ignores geopolitical events

[9:00 am] Deutsche Bank says geopolitical shocks have typically dragged the S&P 500 down 6% over three weeks, but the index recoups all of its losses in another three weeks.

Likewise, Morgan Stanley says geopolitical events tend to drive substantial equity volatility in the short-term. But overall performances remain positive. Over the following one, three and twelve months, the S&P 500 has been up 2%, 3% and 9%, respectively, on average.

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ASX performance after major geopolitical events

[8:55 am] Historical data shows that the S&P/ASX 200 tends to ignore major geopolitical events. Post-conflict performance has been, on average, positive across all time frames and positive the vast majority of the time. Read my full breakdown here.

Source: Author's own research | Performance refers to S&P/ASX 200 price performance

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What's driving stocks?

[8:50 am] The S&P 500 finished 0.96%, despite opening flat and falling as much as 0.41% in early trade. Markets were broadly upbeat overnight, driven by:

• No meaningful spillover in Middle East after US military strikes over the weekend against three Iranian nuclear development sites.

• Iranian counterattack targeting US bases in the region underwhelmed expectations of greater escalation.

• Brent crude tumbled 8.8% to US$70.33 a barrel, the lowest since 12 June. The sharp selloff suggests traders had overpriced the threat of disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, with the lack of actual supply interruptions now prompting a correction in the previously inflated risk premium.

• Fed Governor Bowman said it may be appropriate to cut rates as soon as next month if inflation remains around current levels or trends lower. This follows comments from the Fed's Waller, which noted a potential July rate cut

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Good morning!

[8:40 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures are up 62pts (+0.73%) as Wall Street shrugged off early weakness to close higher and at best levels.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.