Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, September 23. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

---

ASX 200 eyes three day win streak

[2:00 pm] That's all for Tuesday. A solid session with the ASX 200 trading at session highs, up 0.70%. The intraday rally was driven mostly by Financials, with all Big Four banks gaining around 1.5% and helping lift the benchmark above its 20-day moving average, a level that we typically reject over the past couple of weeks.

The ASX Small Ordinaries maintained its momentum, up 0.53% to fresh 17-year highs. Overall, it was a quietly constructive session as markets continue following the path of least resistance higher, supported by the Fed's recent rate cut, encouraging economic data including Australia's accelerating PMI readings, and ongoing positive earnings revisions.

---

Myer FY25 earnings call highlights

[1:55 pm] Myer shares absolutely obliterated today, down 26% ($0.47) on weaker-than-expected earnings and cost headwinds in 1H26. The company just wrapped up its earnings call, here's what I found interesting:

• FY26 guidance focuses on cost discipline (CODB at 29–30% of sales, lower than 2H FY25) with most NDC spend front-loaded, synergies (~A$30m) to be phased in over three years, one-third captured in FY26.

• Five Exclusive Brands relaunching in Feb 2026 and 50+ new beauty/apparel brands by Christmas highlight Myer’s push to lift margins and diversify offering, though brand uplift excluded from synergy targets.

• CapEx prioritised for NDC build and Apparel Brands integration, with no major refurbishments planned, with NZ store footprint under review for further rationalisation.

• Home and Beauty categories continue to drive growth into early FY26, while womens wear shows signs of improvement, reinforcing omni-channel and marketplace expansion as strategic priorities.

• Shrinkage cut to 1.4% (from 1.7%) remains a focus amid industry-wide theft, alongside store safety initiatives and broader value-creation programs to streamline sourcing, distribution, and operations.

---

Analysts take on Regis Healthcare

[1:50 pm] Regis Healthcare issued its FY26 guidance on Monday, with earnings below market expectations due to an insufficient increase in government funding. The stock finished the session down 26% ($6.80). Here's what analysts had to say:

• RBC Capital Markets lowered target from $8.50 to $7.50, maintained Sector Perform. Guidance came in light, cost pressures offset funding gains, and greenfield projects face delays amid funding constraints.

• Macquarie lowered target from $8.90 to $7.90, maintained Outperform. Earnings base remains supported by strong occupancy, but resident mix diluted funding uplift and new projects are delayed despite a favourable long-term outlook.

• Jarden lowered target from $8.95 to $8.20, maintained Overweight. Sees market overreaction to guidance miss, with government funding reviews and RAD pricing flexibility offering potential upside.

---

Cettire rallies on founder transaction

[12:55 pm] Cettire shares surged 12.3% following founder and CEO Dean Mintz's substantial on-market purchase of 10.7 million shares worth $5.44 million. This follows some relatively small parcels in recent months and massive selldowns between 2022-24.

Here's Mr Mintz's transaction history over the past couple of years:

---

Defence stocks back in the spotlight

[12:53 pm] Aerospace and defence stocks are mostly higher today, not sure what's driving the broad move. Notable movers include Veem (+14.0%), Electro Optic Systems (+5.4%) and Droneshield (+9.5%).

---

Lynas rallies 6% while other rare earth stocks lag

[12:50 pm] Just when you thought Lynas was taking a breather (or couldn't get any more vertical), the stock is up 6.7% today to levels not seen since October 2011.

Interestingly, other rare earth names like Iluka (+1.7%), Arafura (-4.3%) and Australian Strategic Metals (-3.5%) are all struggling for upside.

Lynas daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

---

Australian manufacturing and services PMI jump

[12:48 pm] Australia's S&P Global Flash PMI highlighted accelerating business activity in August, with broad-based improvement for both manufacturing and services. Here are the key takeaways from the S&P report:

• Composite PMI rose to 54.9 in August (from 53.8), the strongest reading since April 2022, signalling solid expansion across both manufacturing and services.

• Growth was underpinned by the fastest increase in new manufacturing orders in nearly three years and renewed export demand, with inflows from the US, Europe and Asia-Pacific.

• Services drove job creation at the quickest pace since April 2023, while manufacturers marginally cut staff, highlighting a sectoral split in labour dynamics.

• Input cost pressures (materials, shipping, wages) persisted but eased, leading to softer output price inflation that is now close to long-run averages.

• Business sentiment improved, especially in manufacturing, reflecting optimism around demand recovery and expansion plans.

---

Telix share price rise on US news

[12:20 pm] The share price of Telix Pharmaceuticals is up by more than 7.1% at midday after the company announced that the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services has granted "transitional Pass-Through payment status" for Gozellix, Telix's imaging agent for prostate cancer.

According to Telix's CEO, Kevin Richardson, this will "reduce the out-of-pocket burden for patients, enhance patient access to advanced prostate cancer imaging and simplify payments for providers".

By Andrew Legget

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

---

"Australian economy expected to pick up" says RBA Governor

[11:45 am] Yesterday, in Canberra, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock spoke to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics.

She used this event to discuss the RBA's recent interest rate decisions. Key highlights include:

• Recent cuts were made to keep inflation close to target and the labour market at full employment.

• RBA forecasts that underlying inflation will moderate further to midpoint of 2% to 3% range.

• Recent interest rate cuts expected to support spending by households and businesses.

• Australian economy is expected to pick up "a little further over the next year".

• However, economic outlook continues to be clouded by uncertainty.

By Andrew Legget

---

Potential beginning of another lithium cycle says Macquarie

[11:23 am] Macquarie are observing signs that could indicate the beginning of another lithium cycle. Lithium prices bounced back in August after declining by 17% in the first six months of the year due to a mismatch in supply and demand. On the supply side, Macquarie notes several near-term supply challenges including mining licence suspensions and resource audits in China, local security challenges in Mali, increased regulatory scrutiny in Brazil and delays in new lithium projects.

Demand, however, continues to remain robust with growth in sales of electric vehicles and stronger-than-expected battery energy storage system installations.

By Andrew Legget

---

Rangebound Materials Index tries to move out

[10:41 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index is up 4.0% so far this week. On the weekly chart, its on track to close at the highest level since May 2024. Though its been trading pretty much sideways for the past four years.

ASX 200 Materials Index (Source: TradingView)

---

Materials lead, defensives lag

[10:31 am] A very strong session for the Materials index, up 1.5% and trading at the highest level since October 2024. The sector is seeing some broad gains from:

• Iron ore: Rio Tinto (+2.0%), BHP (+1.4%) and Fortescue (+0.6%)

• Gold: Black Cat (+5.6%), Resolute Mining (+4.4%), St Barbara (+3.0%), Ramelius (+3.0%), Perseus (+3.0%), Westgold (+2.8%), Newmont (+2.0%)

• Copper: 29Metals (+4.3%), Capstone Copper (+2.0%) and Sandfire (+0.5%)

• Coal: New Hope (+2.4%), Yancoal (+1.1%), Stanmore (+0.6%)

• Lithium: Pilbara Minerals (+1.7%), Liontown (+1.0%)

S&P/ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)

---

ASX 200 higher, miners extend gains

[10:28 am] ASX 200 up 0.30% in early trade, down from session high of 0.47%. The index has rallied 1.22% in the last three sessions, cautiously trying to push above the 20-day moving average.

ASX 200 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

---

Myer tanks on FY25 results

[10:03 am] Myer shares have dipped 12.5% (56 cents) in early trade. The company's FY25 result flagged relatively in-line sales and margins but net profit and cash missed analyst expectations. Ongoing challenges with its distribution centres will also impact financial performance in the first-half of FY26.

The key numbers noted earlier include:

• Total sales growth of 0.5% to $3.67 billion vs. $3.64 billion ests (0.8% beat)

• Operating gross profit margin up 171 bps to 38.3% vs. 38.0% ests (30 bp beat)

• EBITDA up 6.5% to $383.2 million vs. $392 million ests (2.2% miss)

• NPAT of $36.8 million vs. $39.4m ests (6.6% miss)

• Net cash of $168.1 million vs. $291m ests (42% miss)

• Total sales in the first even weeks of 1H26 up 3.1%

---

Amplitude Energy launches $150m raise

[9:58 am] Amplitude Energy has kicked off a $150 million capital raise, conducted at 24 cents per share or an 11% discount to its last closing price. The proceeds will be used to:

• Expansion of the East Coast Supply Project (ECSP+) through the Nestor prospect adds a fourth well, leveraging existing Otway Basin infrastructure and unused capacity at Athena Gas Plant to boost supply in peak demand/price periods.

• Development is strategically timed to address forecast southern states gas shortfalls, with first gas targeted as early as 2028, contingent on approvals and a 2026 investment decision.

• Restart of Patricia Baleen in the Gippsland Basin could supply additional east coast gas before 2030, while also providing long-term storage capacity and extending the Orbost Gas Plant’s operating life.

• Both projects highlight Amplitude’s strategy of maximising existing infrastructure and partnerships to deliver new supply quickly and cost-effectively in a tightening domestic gas market.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Amplitude Energy (AEL)

---

Trump ties Tylenol to autism risk

[9:57 am] It's been a rough trading day for American healthcare company, Kenvue (NYSE:KVUE), after US President, Donald Trump, linked the company's Tylenol brand to autism.

At the close of trading, Kenvue's share price had fallen by almost 7.5%, however, there has since been a recovery of around 4.3% in after-hours trading.

Health professionals have come out criticising the White House announcement and reiterating that Tylenol is, in many cases, the only pain relief that is safe for women to take during pregnancies and how studies show that there is no proven link between the drug and autism.

By Andrew Legget

---

Buffett ends 17-year BYD bet

[9:56 am] Overnight, Warren Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK), released a filing showing that the company has exited its position in Chinese automaker, BYD. According to Reuters, Berkshire's investment in BYD had grown by more than 20-fold over the 17 years that it had been invested in the company.

By Andrew Legget

---

Brickworks to de-list tomorrow

[9:39 am] The last day of trading in Soul Patts and Brickworks shares was 15 September 2025, following which TopCo shares commenced trading from Tuesday, 16 September.

Brickworks intends to apply for its removal from the official ASX with effect from close of trading tomorrow, Wednesday 24 September.

---

Myer FY25 results

[9:35 am] Very mixed numbers coming out of Myer.

• Total sales growth of 0.5% to $3.67 billion vs. $3.64 billion ests (0.8% beat)

• Operating gross profit margin up 171 bps to 38.3% vs. 38.0% ests (30 bp beat)

• EBITDA up 6.5% to $383.2 million vs. $392 million ests (2.2% miss)

• NPAT of $36.8 million vs. $39.4m ests (6.6% miss)

• Statutory loss of $211.2 million due to one-off, non-cash impairment of $213.2 million for Myer Apparel Brands goodwill

• No final dividend

• Net cash of $168.1 million vs. $291m ests (42% miss)

Total sales in the first even weeks of 1H26 up 3.1%, though distribution challenges will continue to impact financial performance in 1H26 and weigh on costs.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Myer (MYR)

---

SiteMinder reiterates outlook

[9:18 am] No major new takeaways from SiteMinder's investor presentation.

In a nutshell: SiteMinder is positioned to deliver strong ARR and revenue growth in FY26, building on FY25's 27.2% growth and second-half momentum, while continuing to improve underlying EBITDA, free cash flow, and Rule of 40 performance.

The stock rallied 21.1% on the day of its FY25 result on 27 August. The result highlighted positive cash flow for the first time on record, as well as accelerating revenue in the second half. A key feature was the growing momentum in Smart Platform products, particularly Channels Plus and Dynamic Revenue Plus.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: SiteMinder (SDR)

---

RBC's take on Amcor

[9:06 am] RBC Capital initiated coverage of Amcor this morning, with a Sector perform rating and $13.60 target price (vs. $12.58 last close).

"While we believe the stock represents reasonable long-term value as the company delivers upon the targeted US$650m Berry synergies by FY28 (RBCe US$590m), we believe the share price will remain under pressure as packaging volumes continue to decline and debt concerns arise," says analyst Mark Wilson.

Some other key takeaways include:

• Balance sheet risk elevated post-Berry deal: net debt sits at US$13.3bn, leverage ~3.5x, with US$3.2bn refinancing due in 2026 at likely higher costs.

• Planned asset sales (~US$2.5bn revenue base) expected to take longer, raise less (US$1.0–1.4bn), and only modestly cut leverage (0.1–0.2x).

• Shares trade at a 10% premium to US packaging peers (FY26e EV/EBITDA 9.2x), limiting re-rating potential despite long-term value from synergy realisation.

---

Gold Fields could look to selldown Northern Star stake

[9:00 am] The Australian reports that Gold Fields will inherit approximately 49 million shares in Northern Star (~3% of shares outstanding), with investment banks pitching a selldown.

Source: The Australian

---

Q3 earnings expectations on the rise

[8:57 am] S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow by 7.7% year-over-year in Q3, a significant positive trend as it represents an increase of 0.7% over the quarter. Here are some of the key takeaways from FactSet's latest 'Earnings Insight' report:

• Technology is the clear leader in earnings growth, projected to increase by over 20%, with the semiconductor space a key driver expecting nearly 45% growth.

• Key thematic areas for scrutiny during earnings calls include the effectiveness and return on investment of AI-related spending (hyperscaler capex), the resilience of the consumer, and the impact of tariffs on both company operations and the broader labor market.

• For the financial sector, which kicks off the earnings season, a major focus will be on the stability of consumer spending and how banks are navigating changes in capital markets and the implications of recent Federal Reserve policy for Net Interest Income (NII).

---

Markets may have more room to run

[8:56 am] Despite the market's over 30% rally, positioning and sentiment indicators suggest there's still significant room for further upside.

• Deutsche Bank notes equity positioning at one-month highs but still only moderately overweight (69th percentile), well below reversal-risk extremes.

• While systematic positioning is clearly elevated, BofA highlights that stop-out levels remain far below current all-time high levels.

• Goldman Sachs' sentiment indicator has been negative for 29 consecutive weeks. This marks the third longest streak since 2015.

• AAII bull-bear spread saw a massive 20-point bounce last week, it still only moved back to 0.

---

Fed Miran pushes for more rate cuts

[8:47 am] The newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen Miran argues that rates are "far too high," believing it should be in the low-2% range, roughly 2 percentage points below its current level.

This places him in a position of strong dissent from the majority of his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Miran's reasoning is based on a changing economic landscape, citing new tax and immigration policies, easing rental costs, deregulation, and incoming tariff revenue as factors that are creating a different economic reality and lowering the neutral interest rate.

He warns that an overly restrictive monetary policy risks "unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment," which he believes runs counter to the Fed's employment mandate. This contrasts with his own optimistic outlook for economic growth, a position he acknowledges is at odds with conventional thinking.

---

France overtakes Italy as Europe's most troubled state

[8:45 am] France has surpassed Italy as the euro area's primary fiscal concern, marked by recent credit downgrades and persistent political instability, while Italy has seen its credit rating upgraded due to more stable governance and improved fiscal discipline.

A long-term divergence between the two countries shows that while Italy was historically burdened by high debt and low growth, France's fiscal position has weakened over the past two decades due to consistently high public spending and larger deficits, even after a period of stability under Macron.

Despite France's economic growth outpacing Italy's, France's debt burden is catching up as its government has a history of rarely meeting the EU's 3% deficit limit. Italy, conversely, is on track to fall below the limit, and is using a primary surplus to slowly reduce its own borrowings.

Source: Bloomberg

---

Catapult enters the ASX 200

[8:41 am] Gold Road is set to exit the S&P/ASX 200 Index following its acquisition by Gold Fields, pending final scheme meeting and court approval.

Catapult Sports will take its place in the benchmark index, with the change effective prior to Monday's open on September 29th. The index inclusion likely explains Catapult's outsized 5.0% rally yesterday.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Catapult Sports (CAT)

---

Good morning!

[8:34 am] ASX 200 futures are up 19 pts (+0.21%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

• S&P 500 (+0.44%), Dow (+0.14%) and Nasdaq (+0.70%) all closed at record highs

• Gold prices surged 1.6% to another record high of US$3,744

• Breadth remains poor, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.39%) underperforming the official benchmark by 83 bps

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.