ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 16th June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, June 16. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Karoon Energy cuts CY26 production guidance as Who Dat E manifold restart pushed to 2H27

[10:48 am] Karoon flagged that reinstatement of production through the Who Dat E manifold will no longer occur in 2026, prompting a downgrade to group production guidance. The stock is down 8% in early trade.

• Operator LLOG advised E manifold production now expected to be restored in 2H27, with removal of the failed riser planned for Q3

• Who Dat currently producing at approximately 3,000 (NRI) boepd

• CY26 total production guidance cut 11% to 7.2-8.2 MMboe from prior 8.1-9.2 MMboe (midpoint down to 7.7 from 8.65)

• Who Dat CY26 production guidance cut 41% to 1.2-1.5 (NRI) MMboe from prior 2.1-2.5 (NRI) MMboe (midpoint down to 1.35 from 2.3)

• Brazil production guidance unchanged

• Remediation plan being developed to restore the deferred production

Company page: Karoon Energy (KAR)

Cuba sanctions force voluntary suspension for Melbana Energy

[10:47 am] Melbana Energy has halted trading while it assesses the fallout from US sanctions on its sole PSC counterparty, CUPET, which underpins its principal asset.

• US State Department designated Cuba's state-owned CUPET as a Specially Designated National on 11 June 2026 under Executive Order 14404

• CUPET is the company's contractual counterparty under the Block 9 onshore Cuba PSC, where the company holds a 30% interest and is designated operator

• Block 9 is described as the company's principal asset and primary value driver, with the PSC still in exploration stage and no revenue generated

• Company itself has not been designated, but is assessing secondary sanctions risk for non-US persons engaging with an SDN entity

• Uncertainty flagged over whether the PSC can be maintained, restructured or exited without further sanctions exposure

Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:18 am] Building materials, tech and uranium stocks top the leaderboards, while aluminium names dip, Eagers struggles on a broker downgrade and PLS pulls back after a massive two-day bounce.

Southern Cross opens 11% higher

[10:12 am] A massive open for Southern Cross Electrical Engineering, opening 11.4% higher to a record $4.48. The company successfully completed a $150 million institutional placement at $4.00 per share this morning to fund new works awards and potential M&A moving forward.

As we noted earlier:

• Approximately 37.5m new shares issued at $4.00, the top of the variable price bookbuild range

• Price represents a 0.5% discount to the last close of $4.02

• Proceeds to fund working capital for new works awards and provide flexibility for future acquisitions targeting geographic diversification and new capabilities

As part of the capital raising and work awards update, SCEE upgraded its FY26 EBITDA guidance to at least $75 million (vs. prior $73 million) and a maiden FY27 guidance of at least $100 million EBITDA. The FY27 guidance represents year-on-year growth of at least 30%, which sits well-above Bell Potter's estimates (Feb-26) of ~9%. It'll be interesting to see how the stock performs (dilution vs. small discount/implied strong demand and earnings upgrade).

Westfield Marion stake trades at 4% premium to book

[9:53 am] UBS flags JY Group's $670 million purchase of a 50% stake in Westfield Marion as a strong read-through for mall REITs, with large mall transactions now clearing at premiums to book after trading at discounts in 2024.

• JY Group acquires 50% of Westfield Marion for $670m, a 4% premium to SCG's December 2025 book value

• Marks a clear shift from 2024, when 50% stakes in Westfield Tea Tree Plaza and West Lakes cleared at 8-12% discounts to book, then 20-25% stakes in Chermside and Sydney sold in line with book in 2025

• 11th major retail asset acquired by JY Group since 2020, taking total transaction volumes to $2.8bn

• UBS sees scope for low double-digit total returns from the large mall REITs, supported by a ~5.5% three-year EPS CAGR for VCX and SCG, DPS yields above 5%, robust nominal sales growth, and sub-0.5% vacancy at top-tier centres

Infratil and Newmont reshuffle senior ranks

[9:43 am] Two ASX-listed names have announced executive changes, with Infratil promoting internally to fill a new COO role and Newmont overhauling its C-suite from 1 July.

• Infratil CFO Andrew Carroll moves into the newly created COO role, with Deputy CFO Matt Ross (16+ years at Infratil, Deputy CFO since November 2023) stepping up as CFO

• Newmont appoints Brian Tabolt as CFO, previously Chief Accounting Officer and Group Head, Finance

• Mark Rodgers named COO of Newmont, moving across from his role as Managing Director, Africa and Asia Pacific

Southern Cross Electrical raises $150m, at top of bookbuild range

[9:42 am] Southern Cross Electrical Engineering has successfully completed a $150 million institutional placement at $4.00 per share, with a non-underwritten $15 million share purchase plan to follow.

• Approximately 37.5m new shares issued at $4.00, the top of the variable price bookbuild range

• Price represents a 0.5% discount to the last close of $4.02

• Proceeds to fund working capital for new works awards and provide flexibility for future acquisitions targeting geographic diversification and new capabilities

• Strong support from both existing shareholders and new investors, with settlement scheduled for 19 June 2026

• $15m non-underwritten SPP to be offered to eligible shareholders

As part of the capital raising and work awards update, SCEE upgraded its FY26 EBITDA guidance to at least $75 million (vs. prior $73 million) and a maiden FY27 guidance of at least $100 million EBITDA.

The FY27 guidance represents year-on-year growth of at least 30%, which sits well-above Bell Potter's estimates (Feb-26) of ~9%. It'll be interesting to see how the stock performs (dilution vs. small discount/implied strong demand and earnings upgrade).

Company page: Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE)

HomeCo Daily Needs books $92m valuation uplift, reaffirms FY26 guidance

[9:25 am] HDN has delivered a fifth consecutive positive revaluation, with the portfolio gaining $92m (1.8%) since December, while reaffirming FY26 FFO and distribution guidance.

• Preliminary unaudited 30 June 2026 valuation gain of $92m, up 1.8% on the December 2025 portfolio value, driven by net operating income growth and tenant-led developments

• FY26 guidance reaffirmed at 9.0c FFO per unit and 8.6c DPU

• Q4 distribution declared at 2.15c per unit

• Gearing sits at the midpoint of the 30-40% target range, with hedge coverage extended to 60% through to June 2027

• Occupancy and rent collection above 99%, with management flagging continued investor demand for daily needs retail property

• 46 properties revalued, comprising 19 independent valuations (35% of portfolio by value) and 27 internal valuations

Company page: HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN)

UBS trims Cochlear target on Middle East drag and sluggish US referrals

[9:23 am] UBS has cut Cochlear earnings forecasts 2-3% and lowered its price target to $106 from $109, citing Middle East exposure and softer US channel checks, while retaining a Neutral rating.

• Middle East is the key FY26 swing factor, with the Iran conflict pointing to outcomes at the higher end of Cochlear's risk range and a weaker NPAT result, driving the 2% FY26 cut

• Sales impact viewed as delayed rather than lost, which may support FY27 revenues

• FY27 guidance likely to be cautious with a wide profit range, and UBS expects the midpoint to sit below current VA consensus estimates

• US channel checks show no sharp drop in patient volumes but persistent payer pressure (Medicare Advantage denials) and softer referral flow

• Western European weakness tied to concurrent operational issues across multiple large markets rather than slowing demand, with share losses expected to be cycled

Cochlear shares are down 60% year-to-date and down 63% in the last twelve months, trading at the lowest since March 2016.

Company page: Cochlear (COH)

US-Iran peace deal reached, Hormuz to reopen

[9:20 am] The US and Iran have agreed to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal signing set for Friday in Switzerland, sending oil sharply lower and global risk assets higher.

• 14-point MOU includes immediate cessation of hostilities, lifting of the US naval blockade, and reopening of the strait within 30 days, per Iranian state media

• Around $24bn in frozen Iranian funds to be released, half before final negotiations begin, alongside suspension of oil sanctions

• Final 60-day negotiation window will cover Iran's enrichment activities, remaining sanctions and war reconstruction, with the missile program and proxy support excluded

• Iran to reaffirm its Non-Proliferation Treaty commitment to abstain from nuclear weapons, addressing Trump's central red line

• Risk remains around Israel, which says forces will stay in seized Lebanese, Gazan and Syrian territory indefinitely despite Trump's call for all sides to stand down

SpaceX surges 20% on day two, nears $2.5tn market cap

[9:18 am] SpaceX extended its blockbuster debut with a 19.6% rally on overnight, lifting market value above $2.5tn and putting it within $135bn of Amazon, while Musk flagged a $1tn revenue target by 2030.

• Shares closed at $192.50, up 42% from the $135 IPO price, adding $412bn in market value over two sessions

• Retail traders bought as much SpaceX stock over the first two days as the entire US market saw in the prior week, per Vanda Research

• Musk targeting roughly $1tn in annual revenue by 2030, with the IPO making him the world's first trillionaire

• Morningstar values SpaceX at $780bn ($63/share), well below the IPO price, flagging Q2 results (late July/early August) as the first key test, with focus on Starlink subscriber growth and Starship R&D

Source: Bloomberg

JPMorgan trading desk flips back to tactically bullish on US-Iran deal

[9:16 am] JPMorgan's Andrew Tyler has upgraded the bank's near-term equity view to tactically bullish, a week after turning cautious, citing scope for a risk-on impulse if Washington and Tehran formalise their Hormuz agreement.

• Reverses last week's "tactically cautious" call that flagged the AI-trade unwind in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500

• A US-Iran deal could catalyse a broad risk-on move in equities, supported by strong fundamentals

• Officials set to meet in Switzerland on 19 June to formally sign the MOU, with details still undisclosed

• Tyler still favours technology names and maintains a tactical long in financials, but warns an "everything rally" can narrow to concentrated leadership

• Key risk is bond volatility driven by hawkish growth/inflation data and central bank messaging, with leveraged ETF flows adding pullback risk in semis

Source: Bloomberg

Citadel Securities warns of 1970s-meets-dot-com setup for risk assets

[9:15 am] Citadel Securities' Nohshad Shah says the combination of sticky inflation, elevated oil and stretched AI valuations leaves equities exposed if the Fed resumes hiking as soon as September.

• Backdrop echoes both the dot-com bust and 1970s oil-driven inflation shock, when Fed tightening punctured equity bull markets built on a dominant secular story

• Stubborn inflation, a stronger labour market and elevated oil prices could see the Fed hike as soon as September

• Oil unlikely to retreat quickly even after the US-Iran Hormuz deal, with inventories, strategic reserves, shipping, insurance and supply chains all needing time to normalise

• Reports OpenAI is weighing price cuts point to greater customer cost sensitivity, raising doubts over whether AI adoption stays as broad and profitable as priced in

• AI-linked valuations vulnerable if revenue growth disappoints just as higher oil and rates tighten financial conditions

Source: Bloomberg

US Industrials hit record as Hormuz deal sinks oil

[9:14 am] US industrials jumped to a fresh high after Washington and Tehran agreed an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent sharply lower and lifting airlines and manufacturers.

• S&P 500 Industrials Index rose as much as 2.1% to 1,519.18, topping the previous intraday high of 1,514.96 set on 2 March

• United Airlines and Delta Air Lines were among the top percentage gainers, with Caterpillar also rallying

• Industrials are now up around 14% from the late-March low but lagged the broader S&P 500, which erased its war-related decline back on 13 April

Source: Bloomberg

US stocks higher on US-Iran deal, Dow and Russell hit record closes

[8:35 am] US equities climbed for a third straight session as a weekend US-Iran agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz drove a risk-on move, though a number of details remain unresolved.

• Dow +0.92%, S&P 500 +1.65%, Nasdaq +3.07%, Russell 2000 +0.72%, with the Dow and Russell 2000 at fresh record closes and S&P 500 and Nasdaq 1-2% off record highs

• US-Iran MoU to be signed in Switzerland Friday, reopening Strait of Hormuz, though US won't end blockade until signed and nuclear talks pushed to next round

• Iran to allow free passage through Hormuz during 60-day negotiation but charge thereafter, while Trump wants passage permanently toll-free

• Memory, semis rallied with five of the Mag 7 up 2%+, other outperformers included software, fintech, IBs, private equity, industrials, airlines, cruise lines

• Market pricing roughly 17 bp of Fed hikes through year-end, with record global M&A announcements, positive seasonality and CTA buying supporting the bullish narrative

• Bearish drivers include AI capex/ROI concerns as token costs keep falling, fresh US export controls limiting foreign access to Anthropic Mythos models, equity/debt supply and lingering private credit fears

Good morning!

[8:31 am] ASX 200 futures are down 98 pts (-1.10%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq sharply higher but still 1-2% off record highs after Trump declared the US-Iran war over and authorised the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

• Oil sank to its lowest since March, Brent and WTI both near the low US$80s, as the prospect of restored Gulf flows unwound the war risk premium

• Fox slumped ~15% after agreeing to buy Roku for about $22bn, while SpaceX extended its blockbuster IPO rally ahead of Nasdaq-100 fast-entry inclusion