ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 13th January

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, January 13. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 eyes two-month high

[2:10 pm] Another solid session, with the ASX 200 up 0.97%, trading near intraday highs and on track to close at the highest level since 4 November 2025.

• Solid breadth with 148 constituents (74%) higher

• S&P/ASX 200 Materials (+2.31%) set to close at fresh all-time highs, with broad gains across the board, notably BHP (+2.5%), Rio Tinto (+2.5%), South32 (+2.4%) and Northern Star (+3.0%)

• S&P/ASX 200 Financials up 0.95%, still down around 7% from its 29-Oct-25 high but starting to look bottom-ish as it trades just above the key 200-day

• Defensives like Utilities (-0.51%), Staples (-0.45%) trading lower

Overall, markets are in a good place and continuing to trend higher following a period of relatively constructive price action (the whole daily spiel about 'trading above key moving averages, breadth, broadening rally and higher highs').

The Materials sector has been the key driver of recent strength, and as far as commodity prices go, most are fairly extended/overbought but showing no signs of slowing. Copper, silver and gold all or at all-time highs, while nickel, aluminium, palladium and more have all returned to 1-3 year highs.

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AMP's take on household sentiment

[1:05 pm] AMP economist My Bui says today's consumer sentiment data fell "another large" 1.6 points to 92.9 in January, a level that is the same as a year ago, right before the RBA started delivering rate cuts.

"Aussie consumers are very sensitive to interest rate expectations, so recent headlines about the possibility of rate hikes have contributed to the recent slump in confidence," notes Bui.

"With inflation still too high for the RBA liking, we think that the RBA will retain a hiking bias but remain on hold in the February meeting, as a rate hike will risk hurting the private household and business sectors which have just started the recovery in 2025."

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Lithium stocks extend gains

[12:28 pm] Lithium stocks are trading broadly higher, with a bellwether name like PLS Group up 1.9% and within 10% of all-time highs.

Chinese lithium carbonate futures currently up 7.2% to 166,680 yuan a tonne, up around 34% year-to-date and up 185% from June lows.

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Consumer sentiment slips as rate worries mount

[12:27 pm] Australian consumer confidence fell further in January, driven by rising mortgage rate expectations and caution over the year ahead.

• Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index dropped 1.7% to 92.9, with all sub-indexes below 100, signalling widespread pessimism.

• Near-term expectations for family finances and the economy fell 4.5% and 6.5% respectively, while longer-term outlooks and past-year assessments showed modest gains.

• Mortgage rate expectations remain high, with 64% of consumers anticipating rises over the next 12 months.

• Job outlook sentiment weakened slightly, with unemployment expectations edging above the long-run average, consistent with a flat labour market.

• Housing sentiment was mixed, with homebuyer optimism improved among younger buyers and in NSW/Victoria, but remained low in Queensland, WA and SA.

• House price expectations cooled slightly but remain bullish, up 25% year-on-year.

Source: Westpac

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Trump targets Iran allies with 25% tariffs

[11:52 am] US President Donald Trump has announced immediate 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran amid escalating unrest in the country.

• Tariffs could affect major economies including China, India and Turkey

• The move follows unrest in Iran, where protests over economic conditions have killed over 500 people and led to over 10,000 arrests.

• Trump is coordinating with allies and weighing strong responses, including potential military options.

• US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of global tariffs may affect the administration’s ability to implement duties.

By Warren Masilamony

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Endeavour dips on 1H26 miss

[11:44 am] Endeavour is currently trading 3.9% lower ($3.66), bouncing off an intraday dip of 6.6% ($3.56). The company reported preliminary first-half FY26 earnings this morning, with numbers tracking below market expectations.

• Sales for the first 27 weeks (30-Jun-25 to 4-Jan-26) up 1% year-on-year to $6.68 billion vs. $6.63bn ests (0.8% beat)

• EBIT (ex-items) forecast to come in at $555-566m vs. $595m a year ago (5.8% decline at the midpoint) and $586m ests (4% miss)

• Profit before tax between $400-411m vs. $437m a year ago (7.2% decline)

Management commentary:

• "Highlights for the period included a record sales month in December, driven by Dan Murphyʼs biggest ever trading weeks leading into both Christmas and New Yearʼs Eve, with Christmas Eve setting a new daily sales record."

• "In a competitive market landscape, we have focused on reinforcing customer confidence in the value we offer across all channels, particularly in Dan Murphyʼs unbeatable price and customer experience."

• "... we made a number of decisions to improve customer engagement and generate higher sales velocity, including investment in lower shelf prices."

Prior to today's announcement, EDV was on a four-day win streak, up 4.6% to the highest since August 2025.

Overall, another below consensus update, hotels division continues to perform but retail/drinks segment continues to rely on elevated promotional spend to boost sales.

Company page: Endeavour Group (EDV)

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Lynas CEO retires

[11:26 am] Lynas Rare Earths has just confirmed that Amanda Lacaze, its Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, will retire after more than 12 years leading the company. However, Lacaze will remain in her role till the end of the current financial year.

Lynas board has started the search for a new CEO.

The news drove some intraday volatility, with Lynas shares opening 2.5% higher ($15.15) but fading back to breakeven within the first 15 minutes of trade. The stock has recouped the initial dip, now up 3.3% to $15.28.

Lynas intraday price chart (Source: TradingView)

Lacaze beneficially owns 3.99 million (~A$61m) worth of shares in the company. In early December, she sold approximately $4.9 million worth of shares via three separate transactions.

By Warren Masilamony

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ASX 200 hits two-month high

[10:27 am] ASX 200 currently up 0.47%, pushing intraday highs. If we close at these levels, it'll mark a fresh two-month high.

The Materials sector continues to do most of the heavy lifting at the index level, up 1.30% and trading within 0.2% of last Wednesday's record high.

ASX 200 daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: TradingView)

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:05 am] L1 Group is rallying off the back of a solid FUM update, while the rest of the top gainers list is overrun by rare earths, base metals and copper names. Meanwhile, GQG opened sharply lower after reporting further FUM outflows, while a handful of tech/growth names (360, HUB, XYZ etc.) give back recent gains.

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Miners set to extend gains

[9:40 am] Another strong overnight session for commodity prices, with silver (+6.4%) at all-time highs of US$85/oz, gold (+1.9%) also at all-time highs of US$4,597/oz, copper (+2.0%) back above US$6/lb, aluminium (+1.4%) at the highest since Apr-22 and more.

This drove a strong response for most miners. The below table highlights some of the key US-listed miner ETFs, which typically provide a good gauge for how local peers will perform.

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4DMedical halted for potential capital raise

[9:24 am] The high-flying 4DMedical announced a trading halt this morning for "the purposes of considering, planning and executing a capital raising."

Shares in 4DMedical are up 93% in the past month and 709% in the past twelve months, with its market cap now sitting at $2.29 billion.

The company reported $33.5 million cash at 30 September 2025, noting the opportunity for $30.2 million of additional capital inflows on the exercise of outstanding ASX-listed options (expiry date of 31-Dec-25).

The last capital raise was conducted on 21-Feb-25 for $5.5 million at 42.5 cents per share (vs. last close of $4.29).

Company page: 4DMedical (4DX)

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Fletcher Building flags delayed recovery and margin pressure

[9:16 am] Trading conditions remain highly competitive, with margin compression persisting and any meaningful volume recovery now expected to be delayed until 2027. Key highlights from today's Q2 update include:

• Management sees ongoing margin pressure across most divisions, particularly in Distribution, despite some improvement in broader economic indicators.

• Light Building Products volumes improved vs. the first quarter and were broadly in line or above prior year, Australian operations stabilising and divisional margins holding steady.

• Heavy Building Materials continued to contract, with Winstone Aggregates down 2.7% quarter-on-quarter and Humes down 7.6% quarter-on-quarter, while steel volumes were slightly higher but margins remained compressed.

• Distribution showed marginal volume improvement in PlaceMakers Frame and Truss, but intense competition continued to weigh on margins.

• Residential completions slowed, with 135 units taken to profit in Q2 versus 214 in the prior corresponding period.

NZX-listed FBU shares are currently trading 0.2% lower.

Company page: Fletcher Building (FBU)

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ResMed outlines growth, capital returns and margin upside

[9:05 am] ResMed presented at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, which runs from 13-15 January featuring several high-profile US healthcare companies.

Management reaffirmed medium-term growth, disciplined capital returns and structural margin expansion supported by product momentum and favourable policy settings.

• High single digit revenue growth and margin leverage expected through FY26, with gross margin targeted to lift by double digit basis points annually through 2030.

• Capital management remains a focus with over $600m in share buybacks planned for FY26.

• US manufacturing capacity is expanding with new Atlanta and Indianapolis facilities.

• Early uptake of fabric based AirTouch masks has been strong, while GLP 1 patients are showing higher CPAP adherence and resupply rates at one and three years.

• Pricing risk is contained with CPAP and accessories excluded from the current CMS competitive bidding round, while wearables and digital health partnerships are expected to lift patient inflows over the next 12 to 24 months.

Company page: ResMed (RMD)

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Geopolitical tensions build, markets mostly unfazed

[9:00 am] Fresh geopolitical developments surfaced over the weekend, with oil remaining the main asset class reflecting rising tension.

• Iran: Protests intensified with rising casualties, Trump weighed options including military action while signalling openness to talks, and RBC flagged strike risk among Iranian oil and gas workers as a key supply threat.

• Venezuela: The US may lift additional sanctions next week, but oil executives remain reluctant to invest due to persistent legal, political and financial risks.

• Greenland: Trump reportedly ordered contingency invasion planning, while Nordic countries rejected US claims of Russian and Chinese vessel activity near Greenland.

• Oil and OPEC: OPEC output fell in December as declines in Iran and Venezuela offset planned hikes, while Goldman Sachs expects a 2026 surplus to drive Brent and WTI toward US$50 before recovering from 2027.

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Lynas and rare earth stocks back in the spotlight

[8:58 am] Lynas is back towards a one-month high following the China-Japan escalation.

On 7 January, the stock rallied 14.5% after China hit Japan with export controls for dual-use exports, including:

• All dual-use exports to Japan for military use are banned, with items also prohibited if they could enhance Japan’s military capabilities

• The list covers over 800 items including chemicals, electronics, sensors, and aerospace/shipping equipment

• Beijing cited Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks as violating the One-China principle and of “malicious nature with profoundly detrimental consequences”

• Japan relies on China for roughly 70% of rare earth imports, including materials critical for both military and civilian technology, though current stockpiles may delay immediate impact

Lynas is still down 32% since its 14-Oct-25 record high.

Lynas daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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G-7 steps up rare earth supply chain push

[8:47 am] The US is convening G-7 ministers to accelerate efforts to reduce reliance on China for rare earths amid rising geopolitical and trade tensions.

• Talks in Washington will focus on critical minerals and supply chain security, with participation extending beyond the G-7 to Australia, South Korea, India, Mexico and the EU.

• The meeting follows reports that China has widened rare earth export curbs on Japan to include civilian use, with shipment approvals delayed or denied.

• Beijing maintains the restrictions are justified on national security grounds, rejecting claims it is weaponising rare earths in its dispute with Japan.

• Despite an October trade truce pledging to ease restrictions, the US continues to pursue policies aimed at cutting dependence on Chinese rare earth magnets.

Source: Bloomberg

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Gold surges as policy and geopolitical risks converge

[8:42 am] Gold pushed to a new record as investors sought protection from rising Fed uncertainty and escalating global flash points.

• Gold briefly rallied 2.7% to cross US$4,600/oz for the first time

• Spot gold is currently up 1.8% to US$4,591/oz

• VanEck Gold Miners ETF up 3.4% overnight to fresh all-time highs, but closed off intraday highs of 4.7%

• Policy risk intensified amid a federal investigation into Fed Powell, fuelling speculation of an earlier leadership change and a more rate cut friendly successor.

• Expectations of faster rate cuts, combined with cooling US labour data and a softer US dollar, have strengthened the case for gold by lowering real yield opportunity costs.

• Geopolitical tensions involving Iran and a US military intervention in Venezuela reinforced safe haven demand, adding to an already supportive macro backdrop.

Gold price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Former US economic leaders warn on Fed independence

[8:39 am] A bipartisan group of former Fed chairs, Treasury secretaries and senior economic officials say the reported criminal inquiry into Jay Powell risks severe damage to US monetary credibility.

• Signatories argue the pressure on the Fed mirrors emerging market failures, historically linked to higher inflation and weaker economic outcomes.

• The statement frames Fed independence as essential to achieving Congress’s mandates on inflation, employment and long-term interest rates.

• Signatories include former Fed chairs Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Janet Yellen, former Treasury secretaries Timothy Geithner, Henry Paulson, Robert Rubin and Jacob Lew, and senior economic advisers including Jason Furman, Christina Romer, Greg Mankiw, Glenn Hubbard and Jared Bernstein.

Source: Substack

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Fed independence under direct legal threat

[8:37 am] The DOJ’s unprecedented subpoenas to the Fed escalate political pressure on monetary policy and immediately rattled markets.

• Powell says the subpoenas relate to June testimony on Fed HQ renovations but frames them as retaliation for resisting White House demands for faster rate cuts.

• Markets reacted quickly with S&P 500 futures down as much as 0.7%, the US dollar weaker and gold pushing to a record high, signalling a risk premium around Fed credibility.

• The Fed has already cut rates three times to 3.50-3.75%, but futures imply almost no chance of a move at the Jan 27–28 meeting.

• Scrutiny centres on a $2.5bn renovation project, up from $1.9bn in 2023, with the Fed citing higher materials, labour and unforeseen contamination rather than extravagance.

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Good morning!

[8:28 am] ASX 200 futures are up 27 pts (+0.30%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

Morning Wrap will go live in a moment. The overnight session in a nutshell:

• S&P 500, Dow and Russell 2000 closed at fresh all-time highs

• Powell under investigation over cost overruns on renovations at the Fed's headquarters

• Fed independence fears drive gold, silver and broader commodities basket sharply higher