ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 9th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, July 9. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Australia-India uranium supply deal set for Modi visit

[9:38 am] The AFR reports Australian uranium miners are poised to benefit from a landmark supply deal with India expected during Narendra Modi's visit this week.

• The AFR reports a uranium supply deal is expected to be announced during Modi's Thursday-Friday visit, delivering on a 2014 nuclear co-operation pact long stalled by non-proliferation concerns

• India aims to lift nuclear generation to 100GW by 2047 from 8GW now, driven by AI and data centre power demand

• Australia holds nearly a third of the world's known uranium reserves but produces well below its weight due to state mining bans outside SA and the NT

• BHP is the largest domestic producer via Olympic Dam, with Boss Energy operating the Honeymoon mine, while Paladin, Deep Yellow and Peninsula have significant offshore operations

• Modi is also expected to target a critical minerals deal focused on rare earths, with Arafura Rare Earths having signed a deal last month to supply 500 tonnes a year to an Indian magnet maker

Source: AFR

EQ Resources posts record sales as tungsten prices surge

[9:24 am] EQ Resources delivered record quarterly sales and a production rebound at Mt Carbine, capitalising on strong tungsten prices.

• Record quarterly sales of $79m, up 140% quarter-on-quarter, driven by higher volumes and prices

• Mt Carbine produced 13,050 mtu, up 175% quarter-on-quarter and its highest since Q1 FY2024, with record ore mined as Iolanthe Vein access increased

• Barruecopardo production fell 19% quarter-on-quarter to 15,265 mtu, with southern pit access regained on 4 July after dewatering from a 1-in-50-year rain event

• Cash on hand of $28m at 30 June, up 82% quarter-on-quarter and up 1,384% year-on-year

• Full-year sales totaled $160m, up 142%, though annual production fell 29% to 118,946 mtu

EQR shares are up 597% in the last twelve months but down around 27% from mid-March record highs.

Company page: EQ Resources (EQR)

Steadfast extends takeover exclusivity as $6.00 consortium bid progresses

[9:21 am] Steadfast Group's exclusivity with the Amwins-Dragoneer consortium has been automatically extended by a further four-week soft exclusivity period.

• Exclusivity under the Process Deed extended by a further four-week soft exclusivity period after the Consortium re-confirmed its intention to proceed

• The Consortium's proposal is to acquire Steadfast at $6.00 cash per share, first confirmed on 10 June

• Amwins and Dragoneer intend to act jointly, with Dragoneer taking the retail brokerage business and Amwins the underwriting agency business

• The $6.00 offer follows earlier non-binding indicative proposals at $5.50 and $5.83 per share

• The board intends to unanimously recommend the deal subject to a binding scheme implementation deed, absent a superior proposal and subject to an independent expert concluding it is in shareholders' best interests

Company page: Steadfast Group (SDF)

Jumbo Interactive guides FY26 underlying NPAT below consensus

[9:11 am] Jumbo Interactive flagged full-year underlying NPAT short of market expectations, with mixed segment guidance across its offshore operations.

• Adjusted EBITDA guided to $82-85m vs $83.7m ests (in line)

• Underlying NPAT guided to $39-41m vs $45.6m ests (12% miss)

• Underlying NPATA guided to $48-50m

• Australia EBITDA margin maintained at 46-50%

• Dream US EBITDA upgraded to US$5.2-5.5m from US$2.7-3.0m

• Dream UK was cut to £7.0-7.3m from £8.0-8.3m

• Managed Service Canada EBITDA growth lifted to 35-45% from 20-25%

• UK trimmed to around 10% from 10-15%

Jumbo shares are down 42% year-to-date and experienced a sharp 17% selloff on 25 June, when Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equal-weight (from Overweight) and cut its target price by 42% to $8.40.

"Weaker jackpot activity drives earnings downgrades, while UK regulatory uncertainty and TLC contract risk widen the range of potential outcomes. Despite trading at a trough multiple, we see limited scope for a re-rating until organic growth improves and key overhangs are resolved," noted the analysts.

Company page: Jumbo Interactive (JIN)

Viridis lifts Colossus resource with world-leading measured grade to underpin financing

[9:09 am] Viridis Mining upgraded its Colossus rare earth resource, defining a high-confidence measured resource that clears a key hurdle for project debt financing.

• Total resource lifted to 473Mt at 2,505ppm TREO and 592ppm MREO, described as the world's highest-grade measured and indicated MREO resource for an ionic adsorption clay project

• Defined a measured resource of 31Mt at 2,858ppm TREO and 758ppm MREO to underpin the highest-value early production years

• Measured and indicated resource improved to 305Mt at 2,723ppm TREO and 659ppm MREO following infill drilling

• High-value magnet rare earths (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb) make up around 24% of TREO, with 97Mt of premium feed grading above 4,000ppm TREO delineated

• The measured resource supports conversion to proven ore reserves in the DFS, a key requirement for debt financing ahead of a targeted final investment decision in 2H 2026

• MD Rafael Moreno noted the current resource covers only around 12% of the landholding, pointing to substantial expansion potential

Company page: Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM)

Alkane reports high-grade drill hits at Björkdal, extends mineralisation to record depth

[9:08 am] Alkane Resources reported further high-grade gold intercepts from extension and infill drilling at its Björkdal mine in Sweden.

• Completed 29 drill holes totalling 15,568m across the Eastern and Northern extensions since the October 2025 update

• Eastern Extension highlights included 86.1g/t gold over 1.25m and 81.3g/t over 4.40m

• Northern Extension highlights included 31.5g/t gold over 0.85m and 15.4g/t over 4.00m

• High-grade intercepts extended known mineralisation to 762m below surface, the deepest yet recorded in the field

• CEO Nic Earner said the results, alongside the new Storheden resource, support confidence in lifting production and extending mine life

Company page: Alkane Resources (ALK)

Fletcher Building lifts FY26 earnings guidance on property sales and materials strength

[9:05 am] Fletcher Building upgraded its full-year EBIT guidance, helped by property sale gains and stronger building materials demand.

• FY26 continuing operations EBIT (ex-items) guided to NZ$400-403m including property sales, up from prior guidance of NZ$378-380m (5.9% upgrade at the midpoint)

• Property sales are now expected to deliver around NZ$52m of EBIT in FY26, excluding around NZ$9m of significant items

• Excluding property sales, FY26 EBIT before significant items is guided to NZ$348-351m, an improvement of around 3.6% from the mid-June guidance midpoint

• Light Building Materials benefited from favourable raw material procurement, better manufacturing productivity and greater use of low-cost scrap, while Iplex saw demand pull-forward ahead of price rises

• Heavy Building Materials saw solid civil and infrastructure demand aided by settled weather through June

• Management flagged that macro uncertainty and cost inflation are delaying or cancelling new commercial projects, which if sustained could weigh on H1 FY27 performance

NZX-listed Fletcher Building shares are currently up 2.0% to NZ$3.49.

Company page: Fletcher Building (FBU)

Commodities overnight: Oil up, everything else off lows

[8:58 am] Key commodities like gold and copper struggled overnight, but finished the session well-off session lows. Gold down 0.65% vs. session lows of (1.93%), while copper fell 1.0% vs. lows of (1.9%).

IMF cuts 2026 global growth forecast to 3% as Middle East war weighs

[8:54 am] The IMF trimmed its growth outlook, with the drag from the Middle East conflict partly offset by an AI-driven technology upswing.

• Global growth is projected at 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, down from the 3.5% average in 2024-25

• Global headline inflation is expected to rise to 4.7% in 2026 from 4.1% in 2025 before easing to 3.9% in 2027, with the disinflation trend stalling

• US growth is forecast at 2.3% in 2026, virtually unchanged from April, supported by its net energy exporter status and technology-related investment

• China's 2026 growth is projected to slow to 4.6% on higher oil prices and structural headwinds, while India leads major economies at 6.4%

• Energy prices are seen roughly 25% above prewar levels, with the IMF assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens from mid-July

• Risks remain tilted to the downside, led by renewed Middle East conflict, trade fragmentation and a possible correction in AI-driven valuations

RBNZ hikes rate for first time in three years, signals more to come

[8:53 am] The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points and flagged further tightening as it moves to tame inflation.

• The RBNZ raised the Official Cash Rate to 2.5%, its first increase since 2023, with most economists expecting the move

• The bank said further hikes are "likely", with economists tipping one or two more this year to get closer to the 3% neutral rate

• Inflation is projected to peak at 3.9% in the second quarter before slowing to 3.3% in the September quarter, an improvement on May's forecast of a 4.3% third-quarter peak

• BNZ's Stephen Toplis called a further 25 bp hike in September "very close to a done deal"

Global nuclear capacity to surge 44% by 2036 as China overtakes US

[8:53 am] BloombergNEF sees the world's nuclear fleet expanding sharply over the next decade, driven by AI power demand, energy security and decarbonisation.

• Global nuclear capacity is forecast to reach 535GW by 2036, up 44% from 372GW installed at the end of 2025

• China is set to nearly double its capacity to 102GW from 59GW, overtaking the US as the largest nuclear fleet holder

• Beijing plans to bring seven new reactors online this year, building nuclear alongside solar, wind and coal

• India aims to lift capacity to 100GW by 2047 from 8.8GW now, requiring up to 19.28tn rupees (US$204bn) of cumulative capital

• AI data centre demand, electrification and low-carbon energy targets are driving the global nuclear revival

Broadcom and Nvidia buoy US market as chip stocks rebound

[8:52 am] Two chip names led a semiconductor recovery, with Broadcom lifted by an expanded Apple deal and Nvidia by signs of easing China restrictions.

• Broadcom rose 4.8% to US$388.69, its biggest single-day gain since 14 May, after Apple said its expanded chip agreement is expected to top US$30bn

• The Apple deal involves manufacturing more than 15bn chips in the US, including a US$1.5bn investment in Broadcom's Fort Collins, Colorado plant, and runs through 2031

• Nvidia climbed 3.7% to US$204.12, its biggest one-day gain in more than a month, after the Information reported China will let top AI firms buy H200 chips

• Chinese officials have told Alibaba, ByteDance and DeepSeek they can purchase some processors, though the total may end up below 200,000 units

SpaceX slips below IPO price to record low as Blue Origin raises fresh capital

[8:51 am] SpaceX shares fell under their debut price to an all-time low, just as rival Blue Origin secured its first outside funding round.

• SpaceX hit an all-time low of US$145.20 intraday before closing at US$149.29, below its US$150 market debut price

• The stock fell 7% the prior session despite its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, with analysts suggesting the addition was already priced in

• Of 17 IPO underwriters, 12 initiated coverage, all with Buy-equivalent ratings, including Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas at Overweight with a US$300 target

• Most Wall Street targets sit above US$200, a level the stock last traded at on 16 June

• Blue Origin is raising US$10bn at a US$130bn valuation, its first public fundraise, backed by US$4bn from Coatue, US$4bn from other investors and US$2bn from Jeff Bezos

Oil surges as Trump declares Iran ceasefire "over" and threatens fresh strikes

[8:42 am] Oil prices are on a five-day win streak after the US resumed strikes on Iran and revoked a waiver on the country's oil sales.

• Trump declared the ceasefire "over" at the NATO summit, threatening more strikes, a possible naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Iranian infrastructure

• US Central Command said it struck more than 80 targets after Iran attacked three ships in the strait, with Iran's IRGC claiming retaliatory strikes on 85 US sites in Bahrain and Kuwait

• The US revoked a 60-day sanctions waiver on Iranian oil sales, leaving around 63m barrels of Iranian crude stranded on tankers with no clear buyers

• Diesel jumped more than 11% to US$3.67 after Russia said it would halt exports following Ukrainian attacks on its refineries, while gasoline rose 5.3%

• Trump said US negotiators could continue talks, though he cast doubt on any deal holding

South Korea's KOSPI enters bear market as chip stocks tumble

[8:36 am] The KOSPI fell 5.3% on Wednesday, now down over 20% from its June record as AI spending fears hammered chipmakers.

• The KOSPI closed 5.35% lower at 7,246.79, its lowest since 20 May and down more than 20% from its 22 June record close of 9,114.55

• Samsung Electronics fell 6.3% and SK Hynix lost 5.7% after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 4.7% overnight on AI spending sustainability worries

• Trading was choppy, swinging from up 1.8% to down 6.1% and triggering a sidecar curb that halted algorithmic trading

• Analysts flagged concerns over slowing memory price growth and a potential earnings peak despite Samsung's strong results

Source: Reuters

Dollar climbs for second session as US-Iran ceasefire teeters

[8:34 am] The greenback drew safe-haven flows as escalating conflict fears and surging oil prices lifted the currency.

• Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.2% after Trump said the US would probably launch further strikes on Iran

• The dollar is poised for its best two-day rally in more than a week, following one of its strongest months in the past year

• Higher oil prices support the greenback given the US is the world's largest oil producer and most oil trades in dollars

• Interest-rate swaps show traders pricing a 33% chance of a Fed hike at this month's meeting

• Bullish dollar positioning has climbed to nearly US$40bn as of 30 June, the most positive since 2015

• Wells Fargo's Erik Nelson holds a tactical short bias, saying the rally is getting tired though hawkish Fed strength should return later in summer

Source: Bloomberg

BofA cuts 2026 gold forecast on hawkish Fed but keeps long-term bull view

[8:33 am] Bank of America trimmed its near-term gold target as rate hike bets bite, though banks broadly stay bullish on the longer-term outlook.

• BofA cut its 2026 average gold forecast 14% to US$4,360 an ounce, citing a more hawkish Federal Reserve

• The bank still sees US$5,000 an ounce in reach once the Fed's tightening cycle ends

• JPMorgan flagged downside risks to its US$4,545 forecast given possible early Fed hikes but retains a long-term bullish view into 2027

• Longer-dated targets remain elevated, with Goldman Sachs at US$4,900 by December 2026 and ANZ deferring its US$6,000 target to mid-2027

Source: Reuters

US stocks slide as Trump declares Iran ceasefire "over", oil jumps

[8:32 am] Wall Street sold off as renewed Middle East hostilities sent crude surging, though a chip rebound kept the Nasdaq afloat.

• Dow fell 1.09% to 52,348.39, S&P 500 down 0.28% to 7,482.71, Nasdaq up 0.20% to 25,870.65

• Brent crude settled up 4.6% at US$79.49 a barrel after Trump ruled out further talks with Iran and threatened fresh strikes

• Broadcom rallied 4.8% and Nvidia rose 3.6%, lifting the PHLX chip index 2.23%, on Apple's US$30bn supply deal and reports China will allow purchases of H200 chips

• IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3%, citing risks from the Middle East conflict

• Fed June minutes revealed a divided board on rates, with traders now pricing a likely hike by December

• Energy names gained (Marathon Petroleum up 5%) while travel and consumer stocks fell on fuel cost concerns (Booking down 4%, Carnival down 3.9%)

Good morning

[8:21 am] ASX 200 futures are down 49 pts (-0.56%) as Wall Street finished mostly lower, but off worst levels as chip stocks buoyed benchmarks.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished mostly lower but off worst levels, with the S&P 500 (-0.28%) closing well above session lows of (-1.09%)

• Breadth was very weak, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (-1.18%) lower and only two sectors (Energy and Tech) trading higher

• Nvidia (+3.6%) and Broadcom (+4.8%) carried the market on company-specific news

• Oil spiked and risk sentiment soured after Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire over and American forces launched fresh strikes

• Minutes from the Fed's June meeting exposed a deep split over whether to raise or hold rates, keeping the prospect of a 2026 hike firmly alive