ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 25th September

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, September 25. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX back in the green

[2:45 pm] The bourse bounced back this afternoon and has managed to stay in positive territory for the day, up 0.06%.

But that's entirely down to the Energy and Materials sector, with copper stocks doing much of the heavy lifting for the index.

Aeris is up 10.53%, Capstone is up 9.24% and Sandfire is up 7.01% after copper prices surged when rival Freeport declared force majeure on its Indonesian Grasberg mine.

ASX sector performance (Source: Market Index)

By Tom Stelzer

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Job vacancies drop 2.7%

[1:40 pm] The ABS has released the latest jobs data, which shows job vacancies are down 2.7% in the 3 months to August.

Job vacancies had been on the rise for the 3 months to May, but are now back to around 327,200, a similar level to where they were 6 months ago.

Australian job vacancies (Source: ABS)

The private sector was the biggest driver of the drop, with vacancies there down 3.4%. By comparison, public sector job vacancies were up 2.2%.

By Tom Stelzer

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Optus owner Singtel trades down

[1:27 pm] After another embarrassing week for Australian telco Optus, its parent company Singtel has taken a hit.

Singapore Telecommunications (SGX: Z74), which trades on the Singapore Exchange, is now down 4% this week.

But the stock is still trading near record highs, having risen 29% this year to S$4.25.

By Tom Stelzer

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Liontown FY25 earnings call highlights

[12:59 pm] Liontown just wrapped up its FY25 earnings call. Here's what I found interesting:

• Major operational transition underway with open pit mining concluding December FY26, shifting to 100% underground operations with run rate reaching 1.5m tonnes by June 2026 and scaling to 2.8m tonnes in FY2027

• Near-term headwinds expected in 1H26 with lower production, recoveries, and higher cash outflows due to scheduled shutdowns and stockpile processing, before plant lithia recovery improves to 70% in the second half as underground ore feed increases

• Capital intensity remains elevated through FY26-27 for underground development and infrastructure investment, with sustaining capex of A$45-55n in FY26 before normalizing to A$50-70m annually from FY28 onwards

• Downstream refinery strategy with Sumitomo and LG Energy progressing but location and economics under evaluation amid current market conditions

• Company dismisses sodium-ion battery threat to mobility demand through at least 2026 citing cost, performance and recycling limitations, while declining to comment on BHP takeover speculation and maintaining expansion flexibility at Kathleen Valley

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Karoon also rallying on buyback news

[12:57 pm] Karoon announced this morning that the company had completed the first phase of its $75 million on-market buyback, with phase two to start in October.

The second phase will initially comprise of up to $25 millon in buybacks.

Karoon is trading 5.9% higher ($1.72).

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Austin Engineering rallies on buyback

[12:54 pm] Austin Engineering shares opened relatively flat but now up 16% ($0.325) to a one month high after the company launched an on-market buyback of up to 10% of shares on issue.

“With strong cash generation expected and a clear capital management framework, we see the buy-back as an excellent use of a portion of our capital, given the current metrics of Austin shares," said CEO Sy van Dyk.

Management clearly believe the company is undervalued, with the stock down 47% year-to-date due to short-term margin headwinds. While earnings expectations may have been tempered, the company still posted 70% NPAT growth in FY25 to $40.4 million. It currently trades at a PE of just 7x.

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Resources sector strength fails to offset broader weakness

[11:22 am] What an interesting session, where solid gains from the resource sector is offset by weakness everywhere else. Breadth is relatively poor, with 147 S&P/ASX 200 constituents (74%) trading lower.

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)

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ASX 200 nears seven week low

[11:16 am] ASX 200 (-0.20%) looking a bit wobbly, on the verge of undercutting recent lows to a fresh seven week low. Currently trading below both the 20 and 50-day moving averages.

ASX 200 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade

[10:19 am] It's all about the resource sector today.

• Copper, iron ore, aluminium, rare earths and coal miners are trading mostly higher

• Gold, uranium and lithium names are trading broadly lower

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Copper miners show mixed price action

[10:12 am] Its quiet fascinating seeing how copper stocks traded this morning.

• Capstone Copper (+8.0%) is hovering around the open level. It won't move much as its Toroto Stock Exchange listed shares have already priced in most of the copper price move.

• Sandfire Resources (+7.7%) opened 5.4% higher, briefly rallied as much as 12.6%. When it comes to large cap copper exposure, there's only really Sandfire left

• Aeris (+10.5%) opened just 3.9% higher, now pushing intraday highs

• 29Metals (+3.0%) opened 6% higher, briefly rallied 11% but now faded most of those gains

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Copper stocks open sharply higher

[10:08 am] Copper names opened broadly higher. Overnight, LME copper prices surged 3.6% to a 12-month high of US$10,336/t after Freeport declared force majeure on supplies from Indonesia's Grasberg mine following a massive mudflow accident.

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Sonic Healthcare CEO to retire

[9:45 am] Sonic Healthcare announced that CEO Dr Colin Goldschmidt will retire at the company’s Annual General Meeting on 20 November 2025, and that Dr Jim Newcombe will become CEO with effect from that date.

Newcombe joined Sonic Healthcare eight years ago and is currently the CEO of Douglass Hanly Moir Pathology in Sydney.

Shares in Sonic Healthcare are down 19% year-to-date, trading at levels not seen since March 2020.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

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Kogan reaffirms FY26 guidance in annual report

[9:36 am] Not market sensitive, but Kogan reaffirmed its FY26 guidance and mid-to-long term targets in its annual report. Key takeaways include:

• Adjusted EBITDA margin expected to reach the top of guidance range in the second half as the Mighty Ape recovery concludes

• Medium-term group Adjusted EBITDA margin target of 8-12%

  • Platform-based sales targeting adjusted margins of 50-55%

  • Products Division moving toward break-even

• Long-term aspiration for group Adjusted EBITDA margins above 20%

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Kogan (KGN)

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Premier Investments FY25 results

[9:30 am] A very, very confusing set of numbers due to Apparel Brands sale to Myer. At a glance, margins look like a sizeable miss vs. UBS estimates, though an unexpectedly strong dividend.

• Premier Retail sales up 0.9% to $812.2m vs. $808m ests

• Gross margin of 65.7% vs. 67.0% UBS ests

  • EBIT of $195.4m vs. $190.4m ests

• EBIT margin of 24.1% vs. 27.5% UBS ests

• NPAT down 19.8% to $207.4m

  • Continuing activities, includes significant items

• Final dividend of 50 cps vs. UBS ests of 24 cps

• First 6 weeks of FY26: Peter Alexander sales up 9.2%, Smiggle sales down 4%, strong gross margins

Premier shares also sold off 3.7% on Tuesday due to Myer's poor FY25 result (shares down 25%). After the Apparel Brands selldown, Premier owns approximately $1.0 billion in Myer shares.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Premier Investments (PMV)

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Austin Engineering launches on-market buyback

[9:14 am] Austin Engineering plans to launch an on-market buyback of up to 10% of shares on issue, to run for 12 months starting 10 October 2025.

“The on-market share buy-back reflects both the strength of our balance sheet and the confidence we have in Austin’s long-term growth prospects," says CEO Sy van Dyk, “With strong cash generation expected and a clear capital management framework, we see the buy-back as an excellent use of a portion of our capital, given the current metrics of Austin shares."

Austin shares have almost halved in the last twelve months, down 47% to the lowest since November 2023. Earlier this year, Austin's Chile facility secured "strategically important and potentially multi-year" truck body contract but major ramp-up strained capacity and unsuccessful price variation discussions forced margin compression in short term.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Austin Engineering (ANG)

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Monadelphous contracts update

[9:10 am] Monadelphous announced the award of two new construction contracts valued at a combined $220 million, this includes:

• Major multidisciplinary construction contract with BHP associated with the Jimblebar Train Loadout Replacement Project, with work set to be completed in late 2027

• Construction of Fortescue's North Star Junction BESS, targeting completion in the first half of 2026

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Monadelphous (MND)

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US equity sentiment still slightly underweight

[9:06 am] Goldman Sachs' US equity sentiment indicator for investor positioning is still slightly underweight US equities, despite soaring valuations and bubble concerns. This lack of euphoric positioning has been viewed as potential fuel for further market gains.

Source: Goldman Sachs

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Late September is historically weak

[9:04 am] An interesting chart from Carson Investment Research, which flags the last two weeks of September as a historically weak time of the year.

Source: Ryan Detrick, Carson Investment Research

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Alibaba shares soar to four-year high

[9:01 am] Alibaba shares surged 9.7% to nearly 4-year highs after CEO Eddie Wu announced plans to exceed the original $53 billion AI investment target over three years.

Cathie Wood's ARK reopened Alibaba positions for first time in four years, citing strong cloud business and "very interesting LLMs" despite weak consumer economy and intense competition in retail segments.

Source: Bloomberg

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Lithium Americas shares almost double on potential US stake

[8:57 am] Shares in Lithium Americas surged 95% after after reports Trump administration was pursuing an equity stake of up to 10%.

The potential government equity position represents unprecedented direct intervention in critical minerals supply chains, targeting the company's Thacker Pass project in Nevada, set to become a major domestic lithium source.

Other lithium producers including Albemarle and Sigma Lithium also rallied on the news, suggesting broader sector optimism about government support for domestic battery metal production.

Source: Bloomberg

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The S&P 500 hasn't dipped in 107 sessions

[8:50 am] S&P 500 has gone 107 sessions without a 2% decline, the longest streak since July 2024. It also hasn't seen back-to-back >1% drops in over five months, despite hitting 28 all-time highs this year and adding nearly $16 trillion in market value.

Despite warning signs of potential pause, analysts note "euphoric sentiment is nowhere near extremes and skepticism is pervasive", suggesting underlying bullish structure remains intact even if short-term pullback materialises.

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Copper miners rally but off intraday highs

[8:45 am] The Freeport incident drove copper miners higher overnight, though most names closed below intraday highs.

The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) rallied 3.3% to the highest level since August 2011. Though off session highs of 5.0%.

It'll be interesting to see how local copper names trade. Here's a list of the main names and year-to-date returns.

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Copper prices surge

[8:39 am] LME copper prices jumped 3.6% to a 12-month high of US$10,336/t after Freeport declared force majeure on supplies from Indonesia's Grasberg mine following a massive mudflow accident.

Grasberg represents 3.2% of global mined copper supply and 30% of Freeport's copper production, with the company cutting Q3 sales guidance by 4% for copper and 6% for gold.

The disruption compounds existing tightness as Hudbay simultaneously shut operations at Peru's Constancia mine due to political protests, creating a "perfect storm" scenario with two major copper mines offline.

The incident underscores copper market fragility where relatively small supply disruptions (analyst notes "how little it takes to tighten this market") can drive significant price moves, particularly problematic given existing smelter feedstock shortages.

Source: Bloomberg

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Markets unwind dovish Fed bets

[8:38 am] Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have shifted rather dramatically, with traders now betting on just one more 25 bp cut in 2025 vs. 50 bp cuts being popular last week, driven by conflicting Fed official commentary.

Fed neutral rate expectations have risen to just below 3% in swaps markets, up from current pricing of around 2.95%, suggesting less aggressive easing path ahead.

Treasury positioning shows increased bearishness with JPMorgan's client survey revealing investor short positions at highest levels since February, while 10-year yields hit three-week highs near 4.11%, according to Bloomberg.

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Good morning!

[8:33 am] ASX 200 futures are down 41pts (-0.46%).

• Major US benchmarks broadly lower, but off worst levels

• S&P 500 (-0.28%), Dow (-0.37%), Nasdaq (-0.33%), Russell 2000 (-0.92%)

• A relatively uneventful session, with no major directional drivers, market continues to edge lower from record levels

• Copper prices rallied 4% after Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure from contracted supplies from its Grasberg mine in Indonesia

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.