ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 18th June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, June 18. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

ASX 200 lower as Tech, Miners and Banks slip

[2:16 pm] That's a wrap! The ASX 200 is currently down 0.44%, trading around session lows.

ASX 200 daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

A fairly uneventful session, with plenty of sectors pulling back after a four-day bounce. Materials (-0.94%) closed at record highs on Wednesday, while Real Estate (-0.77%) also eased from a fresh four-month high. Financials (-0.4%) rallied briefly into the 50 and 200-day moving averages earlier this morning, but quickly sold off.

ASX 200 Financials index daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

Overall, a relatively downbeat session, largely as a result of the hawkish FOMC and subsequent market reaction (~38 bps of Fed hikes priced by year-end, leading to a spike in short-term yields and firmer US dollar). The market largely sees the US-Iran deal as done, while economic data remains mixed, with weak Chinese figures on Wednesday set against firmer US data.

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Lithium stocks trading broadly lower

[2:01 pm] Lithium stocks are trading broadly lower, mirroring a 4.9% decline in Chinese lithium carbonate futures. While most lithium stocks are still sitting on solid weekly gains, Chinese prices have dipped around 6.8% over the past week to 163,420 yuan a tonne.

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[1:59 pm] An odd mix of biotech and defensives top the leaderboard, while gold and lithium stocks continue to struggle.

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Gold stocks take a breather

[1:21 pm] The All Ords Gold index is down 2.0% and on track to snap a four-day win streak. Though the index is still up 19.5% in the last five days, but down 7.0% year-to-date.

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Woodside flags 50% jump in LNG and crude sales as projects near startup

[1:16 pm] Woodside CEO Liz Westcott has told the Nikkei the company is set for a 50% increase in LNG and crude oil sales as a number of projects approach operation, with free cash flow expected to rise materially on a deliberate growth profile underwritten by LNG.

Westcott also noted strong US appetite for Woodside's developments and for LNG as an energy source.

Source: Nikkei

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ASX 200 lower as banks and miners slip

[12:11 pm] The ASX 200 is down 0.42% as heavyweight bank and miners slip, and Tech stocks tumble around 2%. Breadth is fairly weak, with 118 constituents (59%) trading lower.

ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

Banks are trading broadly lower, with most names down around 1%.

A relatively soft session for resource-related names, while building materials, gold and nickel stocks lag.

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G7 agrees to cut critical minerals reliance on China, targets sub-60% dependence by 2030

[11:20 am] G7 leaders have agreed to step up coordination on critical minerals supply, aiming to reduce dependence on China for defence, technology and renewable energy inputs.

• Leaders aim to cut reliance on any single supplier outside the G7 for rare earths and permanent magnets to below 60% by 2030, with an ultimate goal of 50%

• Target seen as challenging given China controls 90% of global processed rare earths and magnet output

• New coordination platform to be set up with the IEA for data sharing, market monitoring and early warnings of distortions

• Harmonised mechanisms to start with lithium and nickel, later expanding to five new minerals each year

• 195 projects have been announced since the start of 2026, carrying €64bn ($74bn) in investment

Source: Reuters

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Trump signs interim deal with Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz

[11:19 am] President Trump has signed an interim agreement to end the war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, bringing relief to energy markets after a three-month conflict.

• Memorandum of understanding is now in effect, with the strait to rapidly reopen and immediate sanctions waivers envisioned for Iranian oil

• Deal leaves thorniest disputes, including Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpiles, to a 60-day period of future talks

• MOU envisages a $300bn development program for Iran with no US government cash, and Trump signalled readiness to release frozen Iranian assets

• Iran's ballistic missile program was excluded from the deal, drawing criticism from Republican allies who argue Trump conceded too much

Source: Bloomberg

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Acrow raises $70m to fund acquisitions, lifts FY26 and FY27 guidance

[11:13 am] Acrow has launched a $70 million fully underwritten institutional placement at $0.85 a share to fund two bolt-on acquisitions, alongside upgraded forward guidance.

• Acquiring Ausgroup Industrial Services and Preston SuperDeck for combined $54.5m, expected to be mid-single-digit EPS accretive on an underlying pro-forma basis

• AGIS to be bought for $27m enterprise value plus $2.5m capex, expected to generate $40m revenue and $6.5m EBITDA in FY26

• Preston SuperDeck acquired for $25m upfront cash at 4.0x EV/EBITDA on estimated FY26 earnings, consolidated from 1 July 2026

• FY26 revenue guidance lifted to $330-335m vs $321.7m ests (3% beat)

• FY27 revenue guidance raised to $405-425m vs $343.3m ests (21% beat), with EBITDA of $102-112m vs $92.1m ests (16% beat)

• Placement also funds debt reduction, with a non-underwritten SPP of up to $10m to follow

Company page: Acrow (ACF)

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Analysts' take on Sims

[11:05 am] Sims delivered a second FY26 trading update on Wednesday, that materially upgraded group EBIT guidance above the March range, driven by strong non-ferrous pricing (particularly aluminium scrap) and improved ferrous conditions. The stock finished the session up just 1.7% vs. session highs of 8.0%.

• RBC Capital Markets retained Outperform, raised target from $29.25 to $32.25: sees non-ferrous strength driving near-term momentum and ferrous recovery building into FY27 tailwinds, with the SLS upgrade cycle continuing despite decommissioning timing risk and hyperscaler asset turnover pace the key earnings variable.

• JPMorgan retained Overweight, raised target from $30.00 to $32.50: views the metals divisions as delivering an unexpected earnings uplift with volume growth offsetting potential resale economics headwinds, SLS timing as inter-period rather than structural, and valuation as still attractive versus comparable SLS peers.

• UBS retained Buy, raised target from $30.00 to $34.25: sees the US metals recovery as structurally distinct from prior cycles with all three earnings drivers providing simultaneous tailwinds, and growing conviction on the durability of the pricing environment, supported by certified redeployment status limiting competitive SLS threats.

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Analysts' take on Flight Centre

[10:24 am] Flight Centre downgraded FY26 profit guidance on Wednesday, after Middle East conflict disrupted its leisure division in Q4, with headwinds spanning cancelled and rerouted bookings, an FX drag, and a smaller UK touring impact.

Most analysts had anticipated the revision, and shares closed 5.3% higher as easing Middle East tensions and relaxed government travel advisories overshadowed the downgrade.

• Morgans retained Buy, raised target from $14.55 to $14.80: views the guidance downgrade as broadly in line, with Corporate profit up materially year-on-year and a challenging H1 FY27 for leisure giving way to a strong H2 recovery.

• UBS retained Buy, raised target from $14.50 to $14.70: flags higher-for-longer airfares and potential tightening of corporate budgets into the northern winter as risks, but notes buyback accretion offsets a meaningful portion of the earnings downgrades.

• E&P retained Positive, lowered target from $19.14 to $18.13: sees the pace of FY27 leisure recovery as the key question, with solid Corporate organic growth, an undemanding valuation versus long-run multiples, and the DFAT easing laying the foundation for a clean run into FY27.

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Top All Ords gainers and losers

[10:21 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX All Ords movers in early trade.

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:15 am] Defence, tech and biotech stocks opened higher, while gold stocks snapped a four-day win streak, with most names down 2-3% in early trade.

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Challenger merges Fidante with Channel Capital to create $150bn manager

[9:48 am] Challenger will fold its Fidante funds management arm into a newly formed Channel Group, taking a 45% stake in one of Australia's largest active managers.

• Fidante, with $86bn in FUM, merges with Channel Capital to form Channel Group with about $150bn in assets

• Challenger to own 45% of Channel Group and receive up to $172m in cash, with Channel shareholders and management holding 55%

• Challenger to book a roughly $100m pre-tax gain on sale in FY27, with separation and transaction costs of $5m to $8m

• Channel Group to be led by Channel Capital MD Glen Holding, with Fidante retaining its standalone brand

• Subject to regulatory approvals, the merger is expected to complete in H1 FY27, with a transitional services agreement of up to 24 months

Company page: Challenger (CGF)

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DigiCo declares 2H26 dividend, flags enhanced payouts in FY27

[9:47 am] DigiCo Infrastructure REIT has set its 2H26 distribution and pointed to the scope for returning excess capital above FFO next year.

• 2H26 distribution of 6.0 cents per security, with an ex-date of 29 June and payment on or about 28 August 2026

  • 2H26 distribution yields an implied 2.33% based on Wednesday's close of $2.57

• Reviewing capital management initiatives, including potential FY27 distributions above Funds From Operations

• Enhanced payouts supported by a strengthened balance sheet following agreements to sell the CHI1 and LAX assets

• Any enhanced distribution will be weighed against accretive growth opportunities

Company page: DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT)

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Rate hikes crush mortgage serviceability even as Sydney and Melbourne values fall

[9:42 am] Higher interest rates have lifted income hurdles for buyers nationwide, with the latest Cotality data showing price falls in the biggest capitals offering no affordability relief.

• Brisbane buyers need over $17,000 more in annual household income to service a median house mortgage in May than in January, with Perth facing a $16,500 spike

• Lower quartile house income requirements jumped $14,500 in both Brisbane and Perth over the same period

• Sydney dwelling values fell 0.9% in May to 2.1% below their November 2025 peak

• Melbourne fell 0.8% to 3.2% below its March 2022 high

• Perth values rose 25.8% over the year against just 0.5% in Melbourne, widening the capital city growth gap to 25 percentage points

• Brisbane's lower quartile units are now the most expensive entry-level apartments nationally, with the median unit income gap to Sydney down to just over $2,000

• Vendor discounting across the combined capitals rose to a median 3.3%, while total listings of 129,010 sat 6.5% below the five-year average

Source: Cotality

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Lotus Resources halts trading pending Kayelekera update

[9:31 am] Lotus Resources has requested an immediate trading halt ahead of a project and operational update on its Kayelekera uranium project.

This'll likely be a big one. Short interest in Lotus has surged to 22.82% (as of 11 June) from ~9% at the beginning of the year. It's the most shorted stock on the market by a wide margin (#2 is Boss Energy at 14.97%).

Shares in Lotus are down 53% since its 30 April announcement, which retracted prior production, grade and recovery results. This triggered a sharp 34% selloff on the day. Macquarie's 4 May note flagged an $85 million cash balance (as of 31 March) against $38 million of operating cash spend in the March quarter, implying only a couple of quarters of runway before potential financial stress.

Company page: Lotus Resources (LOT)

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Emeco flags softer FY26 finish on wet weather, guides to stable FY27

[9:29 am] Emeco's near-term earnings took a knock from weather, supply chain and fuel headwinds, though it secured fleet redeployment for FY27 and kept its balance sheet positioned for M&A.

• Guides FY26 operating EBITDA of $290-295m and operating EBIT of $145-150m

• Operating free cash flow seen at $100-110m, with net leverage improving to about 0.4x

• Wet weather, supply chain issues and fuel price uncertainty cut equipment utilisation and delayed fleet redeployment late in FY26

• Guides FY27 to stable earnings vs. FY26, second-half weighted, with continued strong free cash flow and further deleveraging

• Targets 30 June 2027 utilisation consistent with a 20% return on capital in FY28, at around 90% surface and 80% underground

• Strong balance sheet and cash flow leave flexibility for opportunistic M&A in the fragmented rental equipment market, with audited results due 20 August 2026

Company page: Emeco Holdings (EHL)

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A rough lead for ASX as yields rise, dollar gains and commodities fall

[9:15 am] The rate-sensitive US 2-year yield jumped 13 bps overnight to 4.18%, the highest since February 2025.

US 2-year yield chart (Source: TradingView)

The US dollar index also gained 0.85% to 100.38, and starting to test the upper bound of its recent trading range.

US dollar index chart (Source: TradingView)

A firmer US dollar and rising rate expectations weighed on US equities overnight, but also commodity markets, with gold down 1.69%, copper down 1.69%, platinum down 3.8% and silver down 2.95%.

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US retail sales beat across the board in May

[8:56 am] May retail sales came in well ahead of consensus on every key measure, easing fears of an imminent slowdown in US consumption.

• Headline retail sales up 0.9% m/m vs 0.55% consensus

• Ex-autos sales up 0.8% m/m vs 0.5% consensus

• Control group, which feeds into GDP, up 0.7% m/m vs 0.4% consensus

• Gains led by gas stations (+3.4%), miscellaneous stores (+2.3%), online (+1.5%) and autos/parts (+1.2%)

• Electronics/appliances (-0.5%) and restaurants/bars (-0.1%) fell, while food/beverage and building materials were flat

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Fed holds at 3.5-3.75% as Warsh scraps forward guidance in first meeting

[8:53 am] New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh kept rates on hold at his debut press conference while signalling a leaner communications approach and a sweeping review of policy frameworks.

• Held the fed funds target range at 3.5-3.75% and reaffirmed the ample reserves regime, with the FOMC described as unanimous on delivering price stability

• Dropped forward guidance from the statement, calling it ill-suited to the current conjuncture, and shortened the statement language

• SEP medians show real GDP up 2.2% this year and 2.3% next, PCE inflation at 3.6% this year easing to 2.3%, and unemployment around 4.3%

• Median appropriate fed funds rate seen at 3.8% by end-2026 and 3.6% by end-2027, with Warsh declining to submit his own projections

• Flagged inflation running above the 2% goal for more than five years, but said the recent past need not be prologue

• Launched five task forces covering Fed communications, balance sheet policy, data sources, productivity and jobs including AI, and inflation frameworks

Source: Federal Reserve

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IEA cuts 2026 oil demand as Iran deal points to supply rebound in 2027

[8:46 am] The IEA expects global oil demand to fall this year while supply normalises, with a sizeable surplus emerging in 2027 as the US-Iran agreement reopens Gulf flows.

• Cut 2026 global oil demand forecast to a decline of 1.1 mb/d, a 700 kb/d downgrade from May, after 2Q26 deliveries plunged 5 mb/d on higher fuel prices and supply disruptions

• Sees demand rebounding 2 mb/d in 2027 to 105.3 mb/d on normalising trade flows, lower prices and a better economic outlook

• Global supply set to fall 3.9 mb/d to 102.4 mb/d in 2026 before surging 8 mb/d to 110.3 mb/d in 2027, pointing to a significant overhang next year

• Observed inventory draws accelerated to 143 mb (-4.6 mb/d) in May, lifting the pace since the conflict began to 3.8 mb/d, with OECD government stocks at their lowest since December 1990

Source: IEA Oil Market Report - June 2026

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Bank of Korea flags AI chip bonuses as a fresh inflation risk

[8:46 am] South Korea's central bank warned that outsized payouts at major chipmakers could spill into broader wage growth and demand, complicating an already hawkish inflation outlook.

• Exceptionally large bonuses at chip firms could lift wage demands elsewhere, boosting both consumer demand and business costs

• Broad-based wage acceleration is not yet evident, but the BOK flagged it as warranting close monitoring

• May CPI accelerated to 3.1%, the fastest in more than two years, with Shin recently saying the bank should hike "before it is too late"

• Sees second-half CPI running around 3%, with core inflation holding in the mid-to-upper 2% range as energy costs spread through the economy

• Warned Iran war effects will extend beyond fuel, citing a roughly six-month lag before energy shocks feed into goods and services based on the Russia-Ukraine experience

Source: Bloomberg

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Riksbank holds at 1.75% but flips hawkish on Iran-driven inflation risk

[8:44 am] Sweden's central bank kept rates steady for a sixth straight meeting while opening the door to a hike later this year if the Iran war stokes inflation.

• Held key rate at 1.75%, as expected, but lifted the probability of a 2026 hike versus the March assessment

• Raised its rate path to show borrowing costs reaching 2% by Q4 2027, pulled forward from Q2 2028 previously

• Flagged oil-driven price pressure from the Iran war as the key upside risk, though Thedeen said inflation is "not excessively high" and there is time to wait

• Cut GDP growth forecasts to 2.2% for 2026 (from 2.5%) and 2.3% for 2027 (from 2.6%)

• Trimmed CPIF inflation to 1.1% in 2026 (from 1.5%), still below the 2% target, but lifted 2027 to 1.7% (from 1.3%)

Source: Bloomberg

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ECB officials signal more hikes despite Iran deal

[8:42 am] ECB policymakers including Lagarde are signalling that the US-Iran peace framework won't derail further tightening, with traders pricing at least one more 25bp hike to a 2.5% deposit rate this year as core inflation accelerates.

• Markets expect at least one more 25bp hike to take the deposit rate to 2.5% this year

• Multiple Governing Council members, including Kazimir, Simkus, Pereira, Kazaks, Nagel and Makhlouf, argue energy damage from the war cannot be undone overnight and supply chain normalisation will take time

• May core inflation accelerated more than initially reported, with Chief Economist Lane warning four months of elevated energy prices mean headline inflation will be above 3% with indirect effects on food, goods and services into next year

Source: Bloomberg

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Iran set for immediate oil export waivers and $300bn rehab plan under interim deal

[8:40 am] The draft US-Iran interim agreement, set to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, delivers immediate financial relief to Tehran in exchange for ending its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent already at three-month lows on supply expectations.

• US Treasury to issue waivers for Iranian crude and petrochemical exports immediately upon signing, with the naval blockade lifted and Hormuz maritime traffic to return to pre-war levels within 30 days

• Iran-linked tankers, including two supertankers capable of hauling 2 million barrels of crude, have already switched on transponders and begun moving out of the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman

• Brent fell below $78/bbl to a three-month low, down 15% over the last four sessions in the longest losing run this year on bets the deal will unleash a wave of supply

• US and regional partners to deliver an economic rehabilitation plan with at least $300bn in financing, though Trump denied the US itself would pay Iran $300bn and ruled out war reparations

• Draft is vague on the timeline for releasing Iran's frozen assets and does not directly address the fate of its enriched uranium stockpile, deferring that to the final agreement

Source: Bloomberg

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US stocks slump as hawkish Fed prices in September hike

[8:38 am] Wall Street fell sharply after a hawkish FOMC meeting saw markets price in a 25bp hike by September, with big tech, staples and rate-sensitives among the worst hit while semis bucked the trend.

• Dow -0.98%, S&P 500 -1.21%, Nasdaq -1.34% and Russell 2000 -0.72%, with the S&P now slightly down for the week

• Markets now pricing 25bp of hikes by September and 38bp through year-end, after 9 of 18 FOMC officials penciled in at least one hike for 2026 and median dots for 2027 and 2028 also moved higher

• Treasuries saw meaningful bear flattening with front-end yields up 13-16bp, dollar index up ~1%

• Big tech, staples, homebuilders, regional banks, industrials and REITs lagged

• Warsh in his debut press conference reiterated commitment to price stability and Fed independence, and suggested rates are not restrictive anywhere except housing

• May retail sales beat across headline, ex-autos and control group (all two-month highs), pending home sales rose at fastest pace since September 2024

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Good morning!

[8:26 am] ASX 200 futures are down 61 pts (-0.68%)

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• US benchmarks slumped after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC held rates at 3.5%-3.75% and the new dot plot signalled a potential rate hike by year-end, with the S&P 500 down 1.21% and the Nasdaq off 1.34%

• US 2-year yield jumped 13 bps to 4.18%,the highest since Feb-25, US Dollar index up 0.8% to 100.3 but still mostly rangebound, gold snapped a four-day win streak and fell 1.7% overnight

• Brent crude slid for a fifth straight session to about US$78 per barrel, a three-month low, with the US-Iran peace deal set to be signed in Geneva on Friday