ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 15th January

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, January 15. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 set to close higher for fourth straight sessions

[2:30 pm] Another choppy upside kind of day, with the ASX 200 up 0.23% but down from session highs of 0.68%. Upside largely driven by the Materials sector (+1.31%), with notable gains from names like South32 (+4.0%), Bluescope (+4.6%), Lynas (+3.0%) and BHP (+2.9%). Despite the index edging higher, breadth was negative, with 112 constituents trading lower (56%). Slight weakness seen across most defensive sectors like Utilities (-0.50%), Telcos (-0.3%), Real Estate (-0.2%) and Financials (-0.1%). The beaten up (and oversold) tech sector continues to unravel, with plenty of names undercutting recent lows, notably Xero (-3.2%), Life360 (-5.1%) and Catapult Sports (-4.1%). There really isn't much love for tech right now, and even after recent corrections, valuations are still relatively stretched (e.g. Life360's trailing PE has de-rated from 300x to 158x).

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Bluescope rallies past $30

[1:15 pm] Bluescope is up 4.7% to $31.19, having now rallied 27.5% since 5 January.

BSL believes the $30 per share bid it received from SGH and Steel Dynamics materially undervalues the business, which is set to deliver some serious cash flows over the next couple of years.

Macquarie analysts lifted their target price from $25.50 to $34.05 and kept an Outperform rating on Wednesday.

"We think the bid for BSL has not yet played out, one way or the other. There is clearly value in the property portfolio, which we think will be a key aspect of the ongoing 'negotiation', and a 58% FCF CAGR in FY25-FY30e. There are, however, clear risks, should the deal not proceed," says Macquarie.

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Treasury Wine dips on Citi downgrade

[1:01 pm] Citi downgraded Treasury Wine this morning to Sell from Neutral, citing potential adverse impacts on 2H26 earnings after RNDC, a major US wine distributor, flagged plans to divest operations in seven states. The broker maintained its $4.80 target price (vs. current price of $5.10).

TWE is currently down 4.8% and not far from recent lows. The stock has fallen so much that only a monthly chart captures where it's at (the lowest since October 2015).

Treasury Wine Estates monthly price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Sonic Healthcare faces investor scrutiny under new CEO

[12:57 pm] Sonic Healthcare’s new CEO, Jim Newcombe, takes over as the company faces slowing pathology growth, a challenged US business, and shareholder demands for greater transparency, according to the AFR. Investors are seeking further access to Newcombe, who like his predecessor, does not give media interviews.

Investors want him to deliver cost synergies from European acquisitions and consider options for the underperforming US division, which contributes over 20% of revenues.

Newcombe brings extensive clinical and leadership experience, having led one of Sonic’s largest labs, and aims to focus on targeted acquisitions, EPS growth, and return on invested capital.

Source: AFR

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Chinese lithium futures open lower

[12:02 pm] Chinese lithium carbonate futures just opened, currently down 2.2% to 161,700 yuan a tonne, down from highs of 174,060 yuan earlier this week.

Lithium stocks are trading relatively unphased, with most stocks up 1-3%.

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Life360 hits fresh 8-month low

[12:00 pm] Life360 is currently on a four-day losing streak, down 9.6% and trading at the lowest level since May 2025. The stock has almost halved since its October record high of $55.87. Even then, the stock is still trading at a price-to-earnings of 161.

Life360 daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:55 am] South32 tops the leaderboard as aluminium prices edged 0.1% higher to US$3,180 a tonne, the highest since April 2022. Rare earth, copper, uranium and lithium stocks are also posting solid and broad-based gains.

On the flip side, 4DMedical shares lower after completing $150 million capital raise (at an 11.4% discount). Tech stocks also broadly lower amid an ongoing pivot into resources.

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ASX 200 – more choppy gains

[10:33 am] ASX 200 up for a fourth straight day, and up six of the last seven sessions. Already seeing a bit of fading action, with the market currently up 0.29% vs. session high of 0.68%.

Resources remain the name of the game, with Materials (+1.5%) trading at a third straight all-time high while Energy (+0.6%) has now managed to bounce ~6% since late December and trading above the 200-day moving average.

Tech stocks (-1.3%) broadly lower, though the weakness is relatively in-line with the Nasdaq. Interestingly, defensives like Utilities and Staples also slightly lower in early trade.

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: TradingView)

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Rio Tinto and BHP explore Pilbara iron ore MoU

[10:26 am] Rio Tinto and BHP have signed non-binding MOUs to potentially extract up to 200 million tonnes of iron ore in the Pilbara.

The agreements include developing Rio Tinto’s Wunbye deposit and processing BHP’s Yandi Lower Channel ore at Rio’s existing wet plants, building on their 2023 Mungadoo Pillar mining agreement.

Company page: Rio Tinto (RIO) | BHP (BHP)

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4DMedical completes $150 million institutional placement

[10:25 am] 4DMedical has raised $150 million through an institutional placement at $3.80 per share, backed by new global investors and strong support from existing shareholders. This represents an 11.4% discount to its previous close ($4.29).

Proceeds will primarily fund the commercialisation of its CT:VQ product in the US, while dilution to existing shareholders is limited to 3.86%.

CEO Andreas Fouras and CFO Julian Sutton have also exercised options early, increasing their stakes in the company.

Surprisingly, 4DX shares are currently down just 2.5%t o $4.18.

Company page: 4DMedical (4DX)

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Silver's vertical ascent

[9:57 am] We're only three weeks into 2026 and silver is already up 28% year-to-date. It seems like US$100/oz is almost inevitable.

Prices rallied another 7.2% overnight to a record US$93/oz.

Silver price chart (Source: TradingView)

Here's a list of key silver players and their returns for the last twelve months.

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Metals surge on safe-haven demand and supply tightness

[9:55 am] Global metals have started 2026 with record-breaking gains as investors flock to commodities amid geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, and expectations of US trade actions.

• Precious metals rally: Gold reached new all-time highs and silver topped US$93/oz, tripling over the past year.

• Industrial metals hit records: Copper, tin, nickel, and lithium surged, supported by looming supply shortfalls, export restrictions from Indonesia, and high Chinese speculative activity on the Shanghai Futures Exchange

• Policy and trade catalysts: US Section 232 investigations and potential import tariffs are tightening availability of silver, platinum, palladium, and copper, contributing to backwardation in spot markets

• China demand: Elevated Chinese trading volumes, strong exports, and resilient industrial activity turbocharged metals prices

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Rare earths set for renewed investor interest

[9:33 am] Macquarie expects investor attention on rare earths to pick up in the first half of 2026, driven by geopolitical developments and supportive market fundamentals.

• Last week, China imposed new restrictions on rare earths and dual-use materials to Japan, expanding from military to civilian-use heavy REEs and magnets, affecting technology, automotive, and defence supply chains (Macquarie)

• G7 and other major economies discussed securing and diversifying critical mineral supply chains, including potential rare-earth price floors and new supply partnerships

• These developments support Macquarie’s view that NdPr prices could gradually converge toward the US$110/kg floor implied by MP Materials–US DoD agreements, in-line with long-term real price assumptions

• Market fundamentals are supportive, with a small NdPr deficit expected for CY25 and strong demand plus disrupted supply driving price momentum

• NdPr oxide trading at ~US$90/kg, in-line with Macquarie’s 1QCY26 forecast

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Banks face high bar for 2026 after solid 2025

[9:25 am] Australia’s major banks delivered modest outperformance in 2025, and while macro conditions are supportive, further outperformance in 2026 looks challenging given valuations and prior gains, according to Citi. Here are some of their key takeaways from this morning's "Australia Banks" note:

• 2025 outperformance modest despite record 2024, helped by repricing and resilience as cash rate cuts did not materialise

• Macro tailwinds supportive as economists forecast two 2026 hikes to bring interest rates to 4.1%, though strong labour market and aggregate demand, aiding NIMs, credit growth, and asset quality

• Higher inflation, steepening US yield curve, and Aus-US rate differentials historically support bank multiples, though absolute valuations remain elevated (~19x FY26 earnings)

• Upgrades/downgrades: ANZ and BOQ upgraded to Buy, BEN downgraded to Sell, WBC Neutral, NAB and CBA Sell

• Selective value seen among regionals with JDO rated as a Buy and placed on Catalyst Watch as a positive

• 2026 outlook: Neutral overall, high bar set by two years of consecutive outperformance, with sector performance sensitive to rotation between banks and resources

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Amaro cuts FY26 revenue guidance

[9:17 am] Advanced manufacturing and defence technology company Amaro cut its FY26 revenue guidance due to timing delays in US government contracts, though underlying demand and contracted revenue support strong back-end weighted growth.

• FY26 revenue guidance cut to $18-20m from $30-35m, driven by delayed US government contracting rather than demand weakness

• This represents a downgrade of 41.5% at the midpoint

• FY26 guidance still implies 372-425% growth vs. FY25 (low base)

• December quarter revenue expected at ~$3.1m, up 390% year on year, with first half FY26 revenue of ~$7.7m, up 366% year on year

• $9.7m of contracted revenue already secured for the second half, with ~$7.2m expected to land in Q4, pointing to a heavily back-ended year

• Cash balance of ~$52.6m at 31 December rose $1.7m over the quarter, providing balance sheet flexibility as positive AEBITDA is pushed out to calendar 2027

Company page: Amaro (3DA)

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Fedspeak flags widening policy divide

[9:10 am] Commentary from several Fed policymakers flagged diverging views on the outlook for inflation and rate cuts, as markets continue to scale back expectations for easing.

• Kashkari said there is no case for a January cut and warned inflation could remain above target for two to three years, arguing the economy’s resilience suggests policy is not overly restrictive

• Paulson said moderating inflation and a stabilising labour market leave room for rate cuts later this year, with inflation potentially nearing the 2% target by year-end, though labour market risks are rising

• Miran again pushed for sharp rate cuts, arguing monetary policy is too tight given deregulation-driven gains in potential growth and disinflation

• Goolsbee defended Fed independence, saying it is essential for delivering low and stable inflation over time

• Markets are pricing around 52 bps of cuts by year-end, though some traders are increasingly betting the Fed stays on hold through 2026 as growth remains resilient and inflation concerns persist

CME's Fedwatch tool (Source: TradingView)

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US bank earnings stumble despite capital markets strength

[9:02 am] Major US banks traded lower after Q4 results, as mixed net interest income trends and cost pressures outweighed stronger credit quality and a rebound in deal activity.

• Wells Fargo (-4.6%), Bank of America (-3.7%) and Citigroup (-3.3%) shares all fell post-results, reflecting disappointment around NII outcomes and guidance despite broadly better credit trends

• Citi beat NII expectations and delivered strong capital markets growth, with M&A revenue up 84% year on year and investment banking fees up 35%

• Bank of America beat on NII but guided lower, while Wells Fargo missed NII forecasts, highlighting the uneven earnings impact of rate dynamics across the sector

• Cost control remains in focus, with Wells Fargo absorbing US$612m in severance costs and Citi expenses rising 6% on higher compensation, technology and legal spending

• Capital returns outlook mixed, with Wells Fargo flagging lower buybacks in 2026 as it pivots cash toward organic growth post asset-cap removal, while Citi expects to step up repurchases next year

• Management flagged policy risk around Trump’s proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates, warning of tighter credit availability and potential economic drag

• Analysts noted expectations were elevated into results, with the KBW Bank Index up about 19% since late November

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Mega AI IPOs loom as public markets reopen

[9:00 am] A wave of potential blockbuster listings from leading AI and space companies is setting the stage for a reopening of the US IPO market after several subdued years.

• OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX are taking early steps toward public listings, with implied valuations of roughly US$500bn, US$350bn and US$800bn respectively, pointing to potentially unprecedented IPO deal sizes

• IPO activity has lagged since the 2021 peak, with US listings raising US$44bn last year versus US$142bn in 2021, but even one mega float in 2026 could catalyse a broader recovery in issuance

• The AI boom is forcing a rethink of the stay-private model, as capital-intensive data centres and computing costs drive funding needs well beyond what private markets can sustainably absorb

• Financials shared to date suggest extraordinary growth but heavy cash burn, with OpenAI generating about US$13bn in revenue last year yet planning US$115bn of spending between 2025 and 2029

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Markets price in rising geopolitical risk under Trump

[8:54 am] Investors are increasingly positioning for higher geopolitical volatility as the Trump administration signals a more assertive foreign policy stance, even as US equities remain near record highs.

• US equities have so far shrugged off geopolitical shocks, with the S&P 500 at record levels despite Venezuela’s leadership upheaval and escalating global tensions

• Trump’s revival of the Monroe Doctrine raises uncertainty across multiple asset classes, with potential spillovers into energy prices, defence spending, global trade and semiconductor supply chains

• Technology stocks face asymmetric downside risk if tensions around Taiwan escalate, given the sector’s heavy index weighting and reliance on Taiwanese chip manufacturing, including Nvidia’s exposure through revenue and suppliers

• Defence stocks have rallied on expectations of increased military spending and a more conflict-prone global backdrop, with major US contractors already posting double-digit gains year to date

• Energy markets are reacting to Iran-related rhetoric and Venezuela developments, supporting oil prices near term, though analysts caution that gains in oilfield services may be premature while refineries could be the more durable beneficiaries

• Materials and critical minerals stocks have surged on strategic interest in Greenland and rare earth supply chains, though rallies may also reflect speculative positioning and rising demand for geopolitical hedges such as gold and silver

Source: Bloomberg

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US retail sales accelerate into year-end

[8:52 am] US consumer spending strengthened in November, beating expectations and reinforcing solid momentum heading into the final quarter of the year.

• Headline retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month vs. 0.5% consensus, following a downwardly revised 0.1% fall in October

• Sales excluding autos increased 0.5% vs. expectations of 0.4%, indicating broader-based demand beyond the rebound in car purchases

• Control group sales, which feed directly into GDP, rose 0.4% in-line with forecasts, supporting estimates that household spending will add roughly two percentage points to Q4 growth

• Ten of 13 retail categories recorded gains, with strength across discretionary areas such as clothing and sporting goods, alongside higher fuel spending and a recovery in motor vehicle sales

• Consumption remains uneven across income groups, with wealthier households underpinning overall spending while lower-income consumers remain price sensitive and focused on discounts and Buy Now Pay Later usage

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Tech stocks weigh on Wall Street

[8:45 am] A fairly solid overnight session outside of tech stocks, the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.46%) closed at fresh all-time highs thanks to gains from sectors like Energy (+2.2%), Staples (+1.1%) and Real Estate (+1.0%). Seeing a rather broad-based pivot from tech, with several Mag-7 names down more than 2%.

S&P 500 heatmap (Source: TradingView)

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Good morning!

[8:33 am] ASX 200 futures are up 10pts (+0.11%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

A massive overnight session for commodities, lots to unpack.

• Major US benchmarks mostly lower, but closed off worst levels

• Mag-7 stocks all closed lower, with notable declines from Broadcom (-4.1%), Meta (-2.4%), Amazon (-2.4%) and Microsoft (-2.4%)

• Breadth was still positive as the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.46%) outperformed the cap-weighted index by 99 bps

• Commodities continue to rip higher, with gold, silver and copper at fresh all-time highs and sharp gains for nickel, platinum and other base metals

Our Morning Wrap will go live in a moment.