Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to edge higher, S&P 500 retreats as Mag-7 stocks tumble, Miners set to rally

ASX 200 futures are up 10pts (+0.11%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mostly lower, but closed off worst levels

• Mag-7 stocks all closed lower, with notable declines from Broadcom (-4.1%), Meta (-2.4%), Amazon (-2.4%) and Microsoft (-2.4%)

• Breadth was still positive as the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.46%) outperformed the cap-weighted index by 99 bps

• Commodities continue to rip higher, with gold, silver and copper at fresh all-time highs and sharp gains for nickel, platinum and other base metals

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower but off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly lower, but closed off worst levels

• Breadth was still positive, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.46%) outperforming the official benchmark by 99 bps

• Another rotation/pivot oriented session, with several big tech names down more than 2% alongside weakness in growth, high beta and momentum stocks

• Massive session for commodities (again), silver up 6.6% at fresh record above US$90/oz, nickel rallied 6.6%, copper up 1.5% to record highs of US$6.12/lb, gold now above US$4,600, and more

• Markets weighed by underwhelming bank earnings, Mag-7 weakness and a continued shift towards small caps (Russell 2000 up 0.7%) and defensives

• 2026 could be a massive year for IPOs, with potential listings from Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX (NYT)

• Junk bond market is thriving, fueled by investor demand and bets on stable corporate cash flow (BBG)

• Investors brace for heightened geopolitical risk as Trump's "Donroe Doctrine" projects dominance (BBG)

• Hedge funds retained crowded long positions in Big Tech (Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta) while shorting IBM (RT)

• Basis trade swells to ~$1.5tn, prompting fears of a 2020‑style market shock, Morgan Stanley says (BBG)

• Chinese stocks fall after authorities tighten margin‑financing rules, signaling concern over rally's pace (BBG)

• Yen's decline to 18-month low against dollar risks sharp correction as currency nears potential intervention trigger (BBG)

STOCKS

• TSMC told multiple companies they are unable to give them as much capacity as they need amid sharp demand (TI)

• Citigroup CEO signals more job cuts are set to be announced this year at the bank (BBG)

• Robotics software maker Skild AI hits $14bn valuation (TC)

• Shortage of high-end glass cloth fiber causing worries for Apple, Qualcomm (NK)

• Tesla to shift Full Self‑Driving service from one‑time purchase to monthly subscription (RT)

• BP expects $4-5bn in Q4 impairments, mainly in low‑carbon units, as focus shifts back to oil and gas (FT )

TARIFFS

• US formally greenlights Nvidia H200 chip exports to China, with new set of conditions (BBG)

• China to allow some tech firms to buy Nvidia H200 chips only under special circumstances (TI)

• Trump optimistic China will open markets to US goods, citing good relationship with Xi (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Trump attacks Powell, calls Fed chair "incompetent" and says "that jerk" will be gone soon (CNBC)

• Fed's Kashkari says too soon for rate cuts, says Trump actions against Powell "really about monetary policy" (NYF)

• Fed chair race becomes proxy for central-bank independence amid Powell investigation and political pressure (PLT)

• BoE's Taylor flags lower rates ahead, says substantial trade divergence due to Trump policies lowering UK inflation (RT)

GEOPOLITICS

• Trump urges Iranians to keep protesting, reiterates US will take strong action if regime kills demonstrators (RT)

• Denmark sending extra troops, aircraft, and ships to Greenland (FT)

• Denmark says disagreements remain after Greenland talks with US (RT)

• Iran warns it may strike US bases on allies' soil if Washington attacks (BBG)

• Japan PM Takaichi to signal snap election, likely for February (NK)

ECONOMY

• US November retail sales up 0.6% month-on-month vs. 0.4% consensus, monthly gains seen in car buying, sporting goods and building materials (BBG)

• China export growth resilient as shipments to non-US markets rise amid tariff tensions (BBG)

• UK business confidence falls to lowest level in three years (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Still crickets out there! Very, very little on the announcement front this morning, but heaps of commodity price moves to look at (below)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Nickel: Prices ripped ~6.7% overnight, topping recent highs to trade at levels not seen since June 2024. Solid response from Sprott's Nickel Miners ETF (NIKL), up 4.6% and closing at session highs (now up ~46% since 17-Dec-25). This strength is likely going to bring a lot of specs back to life, with a name like Nico Resources (NC1) already up ~240% since 24-Dec-25. Nico is developing one of very few large scale nickel projects outside of Indonesia, with a Dec-22 PFS noting a post-tax NPV of US$3.34bn (assuming US$21.4k/t nickel price) vs. its current market cap of $30m. While the PFS is outdated, it goes to show how much leverage these battered stocks have if prices keep improving.

• Tin: No one talks about tin (and for good reason, there's like one producer (MLX) and maybe less than 3 developers/explorers). Prices rallied almost 10% overnight to hit all-time highs of ~US$53,900.

• Gold, silver: Both safe havens hit another fresh all-time high overnight, though gold and silver miner ETFs (GDX and SIL) both up only 0.40%. We're at the point where prices continue to rip, but equities aren't convinced/not assigning as much risk premium.

• Uranium, lithium: Uranium ETF (URA) up 3.5% to the highest since 31-Oct-25, now less than 10% away from 15-Oct-25 high. Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) also up 2.3% despite Chinese lithium futures easing 3.5% on Wednesday.

BROKER MOVES

• Endeavour Group upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $4.10 from $3.92 (CITI)

• Macquarie upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $208.73 from $200.56 (GS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 15 Jan: None

• Fri 16 Jan: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: DPM Metals (DPM)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 6:00 pm: UK GDP (NOV) 

• 8:00 pm: Germany GDP (2025)