ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 11th September

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, September 11. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 lower, sideways chop continues

[2:29 pm] Nothing much to see here. The S&P/ASX 200 is currently hovering session lows, down 0.50%. Sector performance has been rather choppy, you'll have growth stocks rally and defensive/value underperform one day, and vice versa the next.

The cooler-than-expected US producer price print overnight might be driving some positive flows to yield sensitive sectors like Real Estate and Utilities. Healthcare is leading to the downside as CSL continues to tank, down 2.7% ($205.21) to trade at the lowest level since May 2019. That's it for Thursday, let's see how the CPI print goes tonight.

S&P/ASX 200 sector performance

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No bounce for lithium stocks

[2:23 pm] Lithium names like Pilbara Minerals and Liontown Resources are down 0.7% and 0.4% respectively on Thursday, despite suffering a 17-18% selloff on Wednesday. Overall, it doesn't seem like there's much appetite for a bounce.

Chinese lithium carbonate futures are up 0.3% to 70,320 yuan a tonne but down around 5.5% in the last two sessions.

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Insider Transaction: IVE Group

[2:15 pm] IVE Group CEO Matthew Aitken has sold ~87,000 shares on-market or approximately 54% of his holdings. He beneficially owns 75,000 shares after the transaction, as well as 417,328 unlisted performance rights.

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A funny sequence of events

[2:10 pm] As we noted below, Downer and Service Stream both announced significant contracts with the Department of Defence around 11:48 am AEST.

Within minutes, Ventia Services tanked as much as 7.5% ($4.63). This was likely the markets way of saying "I think Ventia lost the services contract to Downer and Service Stream."

About 15 minutes later, Ventia announced its own $2.7 billion contract win with the DoD and immediately surged into positive territory. By 12:14 pm, Ventia was trading around 2.3% higher ($5.13).

Ventia Services intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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Service Stream awarded "significant" contract with Department of Defence

[12:00 pm] Service Stream secured a "significant long-term base services contract" with the Australian Department of Defence. The contract will operate for an initial 6-year term, with two extension options between 1-3 years, to extend for a maximum term of 10-years. The combined value of the works is approximately $1.6 billion.

This was announced at 11:47 am AEST. Service Stream shares resumed trading at 11:59 am and currently up 14.5% ($2.27) to fresh all-time highs.

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Downer awarded $3.05bn Australian Defence contract

[11:57 am] Downer has been awarded a new contract to deliver base and estate services to the Australian Department of Defence, valued at approximately $3.05 billion over an initial term of six years.

"The initial term runs until 2032, with two extension options of between one to three years each. A maximum term contract could see Downer delivering PAS for a total of 10 years," noted the company.

This was announced at 11:49 am. Downer shares are currently halted and will resume shortly.

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Small caps making moves

[11:55 am] Here are the small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) making moves at noon.

At a glance, Sunrise Energy Metals has pretty much 10-bagged since April, Select Harvest is bouncing, Qoria is rallying after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Buy.

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Boss Energy dips on operational update

[11:44 am] Boss Energy shares opened 1.7% lower ($1.94), currently down 6.5% ($1.84) after a relatively uneventful update this morning.

• The company initiated a Honeymoon Operational Review to assess potential impacts on mineralisation continuity, leachability, and ability to achieve production nameplate capacity from the 2021 Enhanced Feasibility Study.

• The review is on track for completion in the December quarter of 2025, aiming to provide an independent assessment of resources and optimum production rates.

• Accelerated resource drilling is also scheduled to begin in mid-September 2025 and is expected to take seven to nine months to support wellfield planning.

Boss Energy daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Gold miners broadly higher

[10:20 am] Most large cap gold names are trading 2-4% higher after gold prices closed at record highs, up 0.43% to US$3,641/oz overnight.

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ASX 200 lower, continues to trade in narrow range

[10:17 am] S&P/ASX 200 down 0.33% in early trade, erasing yesterday's gains. The market has been lingering around this ~8,800 level for the past couple of days, wedged between the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Not bullish, not bearish ... just trying to figure things out. We've got US CPI tonight, which could drive a bit more volatility.

S&P/ASX 200 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade

[10:10 am] Lithium stocks are bouncing after suffering a massive selloff on Wednesday, gold miners broadly higher as bullion pushed fresh all-time highs overnight. Meanwhile Nine Entertainment dips 33% as it trades ex-dividend (53 cents per share or ~31% yield).

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Newmont continued to climb overnight

[9:45 am] NYSE-listed Newmont shares gained another 3.3% overnight, now up 106% year-to-date. Gold prices closed at record highs, up 0.43% to US$3,641/oz.

Interestingly, Newmont applied to delist from the Toronto Stock Exchange and plans to maintain its listings on the NYSE, ASX and PNGX exchanges.

NYSE-listed Newmont daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Coles over Woolworths, says Morgan Stanley

[9:37 am] Morgan Stanley says Coles has achieved sustained sales outperformance over Woolworths for the first time in almost a decade, supported by targeted promotions, better supplier terms, improved loyalty, e-commerce growth, and range and availability enhancements. The analysts highlighted a few reasons why Coles will continue to lead:

• eCommerce remains a growth tailwind, with COL ~20% behind WOW but expected to close the gap within 4–5 years, potentially adding ~80 basis points per year to sales growth.

• WOW is not yet over-investing in price relative to COL, meaning further sales momentum shifts could lead to earnings downgrades if FY26 sales underperform expectations.

• COL is preferred over WOW for a lower-risk earnings growth profile from FY25–27, benefiting from supply chain efficiencies, strong sales momentum, e-commerce gains, and maturing retail media, promotions, and loyalty investments.

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More thoughts on Klarna

[9:33 am] A few more tidbits on the NYSE-listed Klarna IPO, which was priced at $40 and closed 14.5% higher at $45.82.

• The stock opened at $52.00, rallied as high a $57.20

• From high to close, the stock fell 19.9%

• Klarna posted a net loss of $153 million on $1.52 billion in revenue for the six months to June, with near-term results expected to be impacted by provisions for longer-term loans

• Interesting to see US-listed BNPL names like Affirm and Sezzle slipped 4.0% and 3.9% respectively, thought the Klarna listing/pricing would drive more hype into the sector

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Boss Energy provides Honeymoon update

[9:18 am] Boss Energy has initiated a Honeymoon Operational Review to assess potential impacts on mineralisation continuity, leachability, and ability to achieve production nameplate capacity from the 2021 Enhanced Feasibility Study.

A technical team has been established, supported by independent consultants and ISR mining experts, to review deposits and wellfield design based on international best practices. The review is on track for completion in the December quarter of 2025, aiming to provide an independent assessment of resources and optimum production rates.

Accelerated resource drilling is also scheduled to begin in mid-September 2025 and is expected to take seven to nine months to support wellfield planning.

For context, Boss suffered a 44% selloff on 28 July after flagging: "potential challenges that may arise in achieving nameplate capacity as previously outlined in the EFS. This is largely due to the potential for less continuity of mineralisation and leachability."

In the same announcement, Boss guided to the below figures (vs. Macquarie ests as at Jul-25):

• FY26 C1 cash cost guidance of A$41-45/lb vs. $34.93/lb (23% higher than expected)

• AISC of A$64-70/lb vs. $47.29/lb (41.7% higher than expected)

• Capex of $56-62m vs. $36m (64% higher than expected)

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Perenti secures $300 million Dalgaranga contract

[9:15 am] Perenti's underground mining business, Barminco, has been awarded a four-year contract for underground mining services at Ramelius Resources' Dalgarange Gold Project. The key contract details are:

• Contract value: Circa $300 million

• Contract term: 48 months, with a 12-month option to extend

• Services: Underground development, production and related mining services

• Capital requirement: Circa $16 million of growth capital required in FY26, included in recent guidance

Perenti shares have surged in recent months on the back of several high-profile contract wins from major gold miners. The stock is up 72% year-to-date, trading at levels not seen since 2018.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Perenti (PRN)

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Alcoa slips on Q3 guidance commentary

[9:01 am] NYSE-listed Alcoa shares slipped 1.0% overnight (US$30.93) after management flagged lower-than-expected shipments while speaking at the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference. Key takeaways from the presentation include:

• Q3 operations remain stable, though aluminum shipments will be 15,000 metric tons lower than expected, with annual guidance unchanged.

• Q3 tax expense is projected at $60–70 million due to higher earnings, and lower Alumina shipments will reduce sequential revenue by ~$70 million.

• San Ciprián smelter restart delayed to mid-2026, Western Australia mine approvals expected by mid-2026 with full transition by 2029, potentially adding 1 million metric tons of alumina.

• Focus on reducing net debt to $1–1.5 billion, monetising Ma’aden shares and idle sites, with an Investor Day scheduled for October 30 to discuss strategy and capital allocation.

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Klarna lifts 15% on debut

[8:56 am] Klarna raised US$1.37 billion in an IPO priced above its marketed range, giving the company a market value of about $15.1 billion, up from a $6.7 billion private valuation in 2022. The stock closed at $45.82 overnight, a 14.5% gain from the IPO offer price.

The IPO was over 20 times oversubscribed, with 34.3 million shares sold including those from executives and major investors like Sequoia Capital and Heartland, according to Bloomberg.

Klarna is expanding from buy now, pay later financing into a broader digital banking strategy, offering debit cards and “fair financing” loans, which currently make up 2% of transactions but are expected to grow.

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Wall Street analysts boost S&P 500 targets

[8:47 am] Wall Street strategists are raising their S&P 500 forecasts as strong corporate earnings, resilient economic growth and AI-driven optimism fuel a record-breaking rally.

Deutsche Bank now sees the S&P 500 reaching 7,000 by year-end, Wells Fargo expects double-digit gains into 2026 and Barclays points to improving earnings and stabilising global growth as reasons to be more bullish.

Caution remains as JPMorgan highlights near-term risks from sticky inflation and weak seasonality, even as it sees the index approaching 7,000 next year on the back of lower rates and record shareholder payouts.

Upward revisions reflect confidence that corporate profits will continue to grow, with analysts expecting S&P 500 earnings to rise 10 percent in 2025 and 13 percent in 2026, helping offset pressure from trade tariffs and policy uncertainty.

Source: Bloomberg

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Eyes on tonight's US CPI print

[8:45 am] Wall Street analysts expect a hot CPI print on Thursday, but market reaction is likely muted with jobs data driving the Fed narrative.

Economists forecast inflation to remain relatively flat or slightly higher in August, including:

• Headline inflation to rise 0.3% month-on-month vs. a 0.2% increase in July

• Headline inflation to accelerate to 2.9% vs. 2.7% in the previous month

• Core inflation to rise 0.3% month-on-month and up 3.1% year-on-year, both unchanged from July readings

Markets have more than 1% of rate cuts priced in over the next year, starting with a likely 25 bp cut on Sept 17, though stronger inflation could delay cuts in October/December.

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Oracle surges 35%

[8:40 am] Oracle founder Larry Ellison saw his wealth soar by over $100 billion overnight as the company's stock surged 35.9%, driven by a massive increase in backlog contracts. make it smoother

The Q1 result was relatively in-line with market expectations, with revenue up 12% to $14.90 billion and adjusted EPS up 6% to $1.47. However, the outlook was incredibly bullish.

• RPO backlog contracts up 359% year-on-year to $455 billion, with guidance for over $500 billion this year

• Cloud infrastructure forecast to rise 70% CAGR from $10 billion in FY25 to $144 billion in FY30

• Signed four major contracts in the quarter and flagged a robust pipeline of high-profile AI deals

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 20pts (-0.22%). US equities were mixed overnight, with the S&P 500 (+0.30%) and Nasdaq (+0.03%) edging out another record high. Though the defensive Dow (-0.48%) and Russell 2000 (-0.16%) underperformed.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.