ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 6th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, July 6. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Endeavour and Treasury Wine put vineyards on the block amid industry glut

[9:28 am] Endeavour Group and Treasury Wine Estates have appointed selling agents for a raft of vineyard assets as both companies cut costs and shift toward asset-light wine strategies under new chief executives.

• Endeavour appointed Colliers for Oakridge Wines in the Yarra Valley and Elders for its South Australian vineyards, targeting sales within FY27

• Endeavour's vineyards up for sale could fetch about $20m combined, with the Oakridge brand and land alone worth an estimated $10m-$15m

• Endeavour is also offloading Chapel Hill in McLaren Vale plus properties in the Barossa, Coonawarra and Tasmania, retaining the Chapel Hill brand

• Treasury Wine appointed Colliers to sell the near-1,300 hectare Markaranka vineyard in the Riverland, central to its Penfolds fortified program

• Treasury is also selling the Schultz and Lights vineyards in the Limestone Coast, with buyers likely to be graziers

• Treasury is shrinking its global portfolio from 76 brands to fewer than 30 under new CEO Sam Fischer

• Consultant AlixPartners estimates about one-fifth of Australian vines may need to be removed to reset an industry facing oversupply and falling consumption

Source: AFR

Morgan Stanley lifts Santos to overweight in triple energy upgrade

[9:27 am] Morgan Stanley's Rob Koh has upgraded Santos, Beach Energy and Woodside, turning most constructive on Santos while flagging limited upside across the sector.

• Santos upgraded to overweight from equal-weight, target lifted to $7.67 from $7.50

• Beach Energy upgraded to equal-weight from underweight, though target cut to $0.88 from $1.20

• Woodside upgraded to equal-weight from underweight, target held at $28

Vault gets superior $5.6bn Genesis bid, triggering Regis matching right

[9:27 am] The gold miner's board has judged Genesis's unsolicited cash-and-scrip offer superior to its existing scheme with Regis, opening a five-day matching window.

• Genesis has offered 0.7629 new shares plus $0.475 cash per Vault share, valuing Vault at $5.6bn or $5.274 a share based on Genesis's 3 July close

• The bid represents a 14.5% premium to the implied $4.614 Regis scheme price and a 15.7% premium to Vault's last close

• Vault's board unanimously deemed it a "Superior Proposal", with the offer carrying no financing or due diligence conditions

• A mix-and-match facility lets shareholders vary cash or scrip, subject to aggregate caps of about $500m cash and 803.4m Genesis shares

• Regis now has a five-business-day matching right, expiring 11:59pm AWST on 10 July, during which Vault cannot comment further

Company page: Vault Minerals (VAU)

Anthropic tenders for 1.4GW of Australian data centre capacity in deal worth up to US$15bn

[9:24 am] Anthropic has issued a confidential RFP seeking at least 1.4GW of Australian data centre capacity, with CDC, AirTrunk, NextDC, Iren and Stack among the parties invited to bid on a project that could cost up to US$15 billion to build, according to the AFR.

• Anthropic wants at least 1GW of capacity operational by the end of 2027, exceeding previous estimates of its needs

• Base case is a single long-term partner for a 1.4GW-plus campus, with willingness to co-develop a site from scratch

• Initial proposals landed end of March, with on-site meetings held in Canberra in early April

• Anthropic is at least six weeks from a final decision and may split the deal into four or five smaller contracts rather than one landlord

• Infratil-owned CDC is expected to take the largest share at about 500MW if the deal is split

• RFP financing questions centre on Anthropic's non investment-grade credit status despite a $US965 billion valuation in its May Series H round

• Bidders were asked for land bank details, construction track records on projects above 200MW, and energy solutions for projects above 300MW, including on-premises generation

Source: AFR

Infratil's CDC valuation jumps 23.6% to A$18.5bn on surging data centre demand

[9:21 am] Infratil's independent valuation of Canberra Data Centres (CDC) rose A$3.5 billion to a A$18.5 billion (mid-point) in the June quarter, driven by contracted capacity crossing 1GW and a sharp expansion of the future development pipeline.

• 30 June 2026 independent valuation of CDC increased 23.6% to A$18.5bn, within an assessed range of A$17.5bn to A$19.7bn

• Infratil's 49.72% stake in CDC now valued at A$9.21bn

• Contracted capacity exceeded 1GW during the quarter, including a 555MW contract signed in May and 14MW in New Zealand

• Total leasable pipeline to FY40 increased 1.9GW to 3.9GW, including 1.3GW of new future build capacity in Australian markets

• Cost of equity increased to 12.45% from 11.84%, driven by a 25bps rise in the risk-free rate to 4.25% and higher forecast gearing

• Net debt increased on accelerated debt-funded construction; CDC issued a A$1 billion hybrid capital bond at a blended margin of 250bps following its public Moody's Baa2 (Stable) rating

• Infratil's share price is up 3.2% in morning trading on the NZX

Regis hits top of FY26 guidance with 379koz as cash swells past $1.2bn

[9:13 am] A stronger fourth quarter lifted annual output to the upper end of the range, with the balance sheet materially strengthened over the year.

• Group FY26 production of 379koz landed at the top of the 350-380koz guidance range, with Q4 output of 101.5koz up 12% quarter-on-quarter

• Cash and bullion of $1.21bn at 30 June, up $692m over the financial year after $151m of dividends and $156m of tax

• The quarter generated $284m of underlying cash before a $114m April dividend, $64m of tax and about $25m of higher-than-usual diesel costs

• Duketon produced 62.5koz and Tropicana 39.1koz in Q4, with both divisions finishing FY26 within their respective guidance ranges

• AISC, growth capex and exploration all reaffirmed within guided ranges, with AISC toward the top end

Company page: Regis Resources (RRL)

Capricorn delivers FY26 gold at top of guidance as KEP nears commissioning

[9:12 am] The miner hit the upper end of its production range while advancing two growth projects and paying a maiden dividend.

• KGP produced 123,589oz in FY26, at the top end of 115,000-125,000oz guidance, with Q4 output of 30,437oz

• AISC expected to land within the FY26 cost guidance range of $1,530-1,630/oz

• Cash and gold on hand of $507.0m at 30 June, broadly flat on March's $507.6m, after $46.0m of capex, a $22.8m maiden dividend and a $68.2m underlying cash build

• The Karlawinda Expansion Project is advancing toward commissioning this quarter, with concrete works complete

• At the Mt Gibson Gold Project, Capricorn received federal EPBC approval and awarded MACA Interquip the main plant construction scope, with the state assessment process now being finalised

Company page: Capricorn Metals (CMM)

ASX June trading activity jumps as capital raisings slump

[9:02 am] Secondary market volumes surged on higher trades and volatility, while new capital quoted fell sharply against a strong prior-year comparison.

• Average daily value traded on-market rose 19% to $8.413bn, with the average daily number of trades up 47% on the pcp

• Total new capital quoted fell to $3.3bn from $11.0bn in the pcp, though June YTD net new capital of $37.1bn edged ahead of $35.6bn a year earlier

• Volatility picked up, with the All Ordinaries average daily movement at 0.6% versus 0.3%, and the ASX 200 VIX up 12% to an average of 12.4

• Total average daily futures and options on futures volumes rose 21%, with index options up 16% while single stock options fell 4%

• Participant margin balances held on balance sheet fell to $10.4bn at 30 June from $13.0bn a year earlier

Company page: ASX (ASX)

Helia retains ING as exclusive LMI provider

[9:01 am] The four-year renewal shores up a major customer relationship for the mortgage insurer following the loss of its largest client earlier this year.

• Helia has been selected as ING's exclusive Lenders Mortgage Insurance provider for four years from 1 July 2026, replacing the prior agreement that expired 30 June

• ING represented around 20% of Helia's FY25 Gross Written Premium, making the renewal a material contract to secure

• The win carries added weight after Helia lost its CBA contract, which accounted for~40% of FY25 GWP, with no new CBA business written since 31 January 2026

Company page: Helia Group (HLI)

China services growth eases in June as export demand hits 20-month high

[8:57 am] The private PMI dipped slightly but stayed firmly in expansion, with overseas orders and a return to price rises the standout features.

• The RatingDog China General Services PMI fell to 54.1 in June from 54.4 in May, holding above the 50 expansion threshold as new business growth slowed

• New export business rose at its fastest pace since October 2024, cushioning the softer domestic new-work trend

• Companies raised selling prices for the first time in four months and at the quickest rate in over two years, even as input cost inflation eased

• Service providers added jobs faster on improving demand, though year-ahead business optimism softened

• The Composite Output Index eased to 53.6 from 54.0, while a separate official survey showed services edging up on a different sample

Source: Reuters

Trump gives Warsh leeway on rates, flags "hostile" Fed board

[8:56 am] The president softened his rate-cut pressure after weak June payrolls, while vowing to renew his push to remove governor Lisa Cook.

• Trump said new Fed chair Kevin Warsh faces a board that is "a little bit hostile" and may struggle to steer colleagues on policy, a marked shift from months of hectoring Powell to cut rates

• June payrolls showed hiring slowed sharply while unemployment fell to 4.2% on shrinking participation, prompting investors to scale back bets on a rate increase this year

• Trump vowed to restart efforts to oust governor Lisa Cook after the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 to keep her in post while she challenges removal, faulting the administration on process rather than merits

• Warsh said this week that price risks have eased recently and reaffirmed his commitment to the 2% inflation target and Fed independence

• Inflation accelerated in May to its fastest in more than three years on higher energy costs from the Iran war, though economists say it has likely peaked as oil prices fall

Source: Bloomberg

Citi sees Brent sliding to US$60 as Hormuz shock unwinds

[8:54 am] The investment bank joins a bearish chorus, urging clients to sell summer rallies as normalising shipping flows and absent Chinese buyers reassert oversupply.

• Citi forecasts Brent at US$60-65 a barrel by year-end and recommends selling any summer rallies, citing normalising shipping flows, absent Chinese buyers, weakening physical markets and smaller-than-expected inventory draws

• Goldman Sachs sees the market swinging back into oversupply as the Iran war impact fades, while Morgan Stanley has cut its oil forecasts twice recently on glut risks

Source: Bloomberg

Oil supply builds as Hormuz fee standoff clouds tense Iran ceasefire

[8:53 am] Iran insists on transit fees once a 60-day pause expires, while OPEC+ adds barrels into a falling price environment.

• Iran reaffirmed it will charge fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz once the current 60-day free-passage window ends, with "special treatment" flagged for friendly nations, an idea the US and Oman reject

• OPEC+ agreed a fifth straight monthly output increase, with seven members adding a combined 188,000 barrels per day in August as prices sit at pre-war lows

• Iran issued a "serious warning" to France and the UK after they pledged to help Oman keep the waterway safe, raising the risk of renewed escalation

• The fee dispute has stalled US-Iran talks before nuclear arsenal discussions have even begun, leaving the ceasefire fragile

• Multi-day funeral ceremonies for slain supreme leader Ali Khamenei drew mass crowds and revenge chants, with successor Mojtaba Khamenei still unseen since February

Prediction markets hit record volumes as World Cup drives betting surge

[8:41 am] The FIFA World Cup fuelled blockbuster June trading across event contract platforms, pressure-testing the sector as regulators and institutions watch.

• Kalshi did more than $31bn in notional volume in June, up over 70% from May's $17.9bn, sustaining daily volume above $1bn since the tournament began on June 11

• Polymarket's international exchange set a monthly record above $10.8bn, reversing April and May declines, while its US platform did north of $3.5bn, up from $1.77bn

• Kalshi open interest now tops $1bn, while Polymarket sits just under $400m, with both elevated on World Cup excitement

• More than $64m on Kalshi and $122m on Polymarket has been traded on a US tournament win, despite odds of just 4.3% and 3% respectively

Source: CNBC

US equity funds bleed as global flows tilt to tech dip-buyers

[8:38 am] Fund flow data diverged last week, with BofA flagging the fastest US stock exodus since March even as broader global equity funds drew money into a tech pullback.

• US stock funds saw US$17.2bn of outflows in the week to July 1, the fastest pace since March, per BofA citing EPFR data, with overall equities losing US$13.9bn

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 11% over two days as AI valuation scepticism persisted, with JPMorgan flagging an unsustainable gap between chip stocks and hyperscalers

• Investors rotated internationally, with Japanese equities drawing their biggest inflows in seven weeks at $1.9bn

• Separately, LSEG Lipper data showed global equity funds took in US$10.44bn, up about a quarter on the prior week, as investors bought the tech dip after the MSCI World fell 2.07%

• Investment grade bonds attracted $17.2bn and high-yield funds saw their biggest inflows in over a year, while gold and precious metal funds logged a seventh straight weekly outflow

Wall Street bets resilient markets can absorb every shock into second half

[8:36 am] A diversified stocks, bonds and commodities portfolio posted its best first-half return since 2021, and the sell-side sees the expansion holding despite stretched valuations.

• The Nasdaq 100 gained nearly 20% and semiconductors surged triple digits in the first half, though the Magnificent Seven lost about 2% on a total-return basis as investors favoured AI builders over deployers

• Gold, silver and Bitcoin all finished the half lower despite months of geopolitical turmoil, while government bonds delivered positive returns

• Bloomberg's survey puts the average S&P 500 year-end target at 7,716, implying roughly 3% upside from June 30 after the benchmark's 9% year-to-date climb

• Barclays argues the rally is far narrower than it looks, estimating semiconductor and computer hardware names drove around 87% of first-half S&P 500 gains

Source: Bloomberg

JPMorgan slashes gold forecast to US$4,500 as demand disappoints

[8:36 am] The investment bank sees weaker sector demand capping this year's rally and warns the risks skew lower still if the Fed hikes early.

• JPMorgan now forecasts gold at US$4,300/oz in the third quarter and US$4,500/oz in the fourth, down sharply from the US$6,000 year-end call it held as recently as June 9

• Risks skew to the downside on the possibility of early Fed rate hikes should summer data run hot, with high rates weighing on non-yielding bullion

• Retained a long-term bullish view, expecting gains to extend into 2027 on central bank buying and structural physical demand

• Silver forecast to average US$60-65/oz as tight physical conditions ease and the gold-to-silver ratio normalises

Source: Reuters

India emerges as AI hedge as calmer markets draw back investors

[8:35 am] Indian equities are regaining favour as a low-volatility diversifier, with easing oil prices and a stabilising rupee brightening the earnings outlook.

• India's absence from the AI trade has turned it into a relative safe haven, with the Nifty 50 moving 1% or more on just 38 sessions in the first half of 2026 versus 59 for MSCI emerging-market and Asian gauges and 32 for the S&P 500

• The Nifty 50 outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in June by the most since November, while foreign outflows were the smallest in four months

• Falling commodity prices, a rupee recovering from a record low and stable rates have reduced inflation concerns and lifted growth prospects, setting up likely earnings upgrades

• Morgan Stanley's Ridham Desai frames India as a "much larger macro asset class" offering defensive growth that can better withstand global shocks, with the Nifty 50 nearly tripling over the past decade

Source: Bloomberg

Good morning

[8:22 am] ASX 200 futures are down 52 pts (-0.39%) despite European stocks rising to record highs and gold bouncing towards US$4,200/oz.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Wall Street was closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday, leaving Thursday's record Dow close, a flat S&P 500 and a lower Nasdaq as the most recent read

• European equities notched fresh record highs and a fourth straight weekly gain, while gold rallied back toward US$4,200

• OPEC+ approved another 188,000 barrels per day August output rise as Strait of Hormuz shipping recovers, and Iran held a state funeral for slain Supreme Leader Khamenei