ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 4th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, August 4. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 3:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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Morgan Stanley says Mineral Resources is miner with most upside

[13:43 pm] Broker Morgan Stanley has gone through the miners under its coverage in Australia and named Mineral Resources as perhaps the best buy now.

Min Res shares have 31% upside to Morgan Stanley's valuation of $37.50 per share.

"We like MIN's commodity mix and we see MIN's leverage levels improving as Onslow continues to ramp up. The Mining Services business also provides earnings resilience, generating strong cash flows even in a low commodity price scenario."

It also rates BHP a buy with a $43.50 share price target.

By Tom Richardson.

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UBS buy rated on Treasury Wines, Domino's Pizza

[13:14 pm] Broker UBS has issued an earnings season preview for the retail sector and stuck to buy ratings on Treasury Wines and Domino's Pizza.

It values the wines exporter at $10 per share and the pizza merchant at $22 per share.

One stock it thinks investors should avoid for now is market darling JB Hi-Fi.

Shares in the electronics retailer are $113.50, which is too rich for UBS's liking. It has a $109 price target on the stock.

By Tom Richardson.

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Australian bonds rally, yields climb

[12:45 pm] Australian bond yields are lower this morning as traders bring forward expectations of interest rate cuts from the central bank.

Australian 1-year bond yields fell 6 basis points to 3.37% this morning.

The fall in yields also mirrors a decline in bond yields in the US on Friday as investors reacted to weaker-than-expected jobs data.

Benchmark US 10-year yields eased to 4.25% on Friday.

By Tom Richardson.

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Market now places 88% chance on September rate cut from US Fed

[12:35 pm] Weak jobs data in the US on Friday that led President Trump to fire the commissioner of the Bureau of Labour Statistics for delivering fake news has prompted traders to lift bets on a September rate cut in the US.

Market pricing now puts an 88% chance on a rate cut, according to National Australia Bank.

"In bonds, the front end of the US Treasury curve lost no time in pricing in a more aggressive Fed easing path, the 2-year note losing 15bps in the minutes after payrolls, with the yield then leaking lower throughout the remainder of the day," NAB said.

By Tom Richardson.

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US futures turn higher, Japanese banks slide

[12:23 pm] Early trade in US futures suggests Wall Street will open higher tonight after a weak jobs report on Friday sparked a decent sell-off.

Asia Pacific markets are mixed with the ASX 200 slightly lower, although shares in Hong Kong and China are higher.

Japanese banks are weaker again, with the nation's TOPIX Banks Index slidling 4.3% in early trade.

By Tom Richardson.

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Growth stocks claw back early losses

[11:38 am] Plenty of growth names that suffered 3-5% gap downs have clawed their way back to breakeven.

• Zip tumbled as much as -7.0% in early trade, currently -1.3%

• Droneshield down as much as 4.9%, currently -0.4%

• Catapult hit intraday low of -4.3%, currently -2.1%

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ASX 200 returns to breakeven

[10:58 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is hovering around breakeven (-0.05%) after falling as much as -0.36% in early trade. Mostly defensive and value-oriented names buoying the markets, including Woolworths (+1.7%), Wesfarmers (+1.1%) and CSL (+1.0%).

S&P/ASX 200 sector performance as at 10:58 am (Source: Market Index

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Small caps making moves

[10:27 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers in early trade.

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Endeavour V-shapes into positive territory

[10:26 am] Endeavour shares opened 1.0% lower ($4.00) but squeezed 4.7% higher ($4.23) in early trade.

"Slight stat earnings and revenue miss to consensus with some one-offs potentially playing a part. Further Board/ Exec Chair turnover appears to be driven by disagreements within the Board regarding strategy," noted RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Toner.

The preliminary FY25 NPAT guidance of $420-425 million was a 2.4% miss vs. expectations of $433 million, while sales of $12.06 billion was largely in-line.

"The Group's balance sheet remains in good order. Solid cash flow generation during FY25, reflecting a disciplined approach to capital management, has driven a reduction in the Group's net debt," noted the trading update.

Heading into the trading update, Endeavour shares were down 4% year-to-date and down 25% in the past twelve months. This may reflects already-low expectations that the retail liquor market remains challenged, particularly after Endeavour flagged an acceleration in promotional intensity for 4Q25 amid subdued sales. In this context, FY25 numbers that simply meet market expectations could be the catalyst needed to spark a relief rally.

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Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:12 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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Bell Potter initiates coverage of Sigma Healthcare

[9:42 am] Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Sigma Healthcare with a Sell rating and $2.00 target price (vs. last close of $2.86).

Despite the strong strategic case, the current market cap is not supported by earnings or yield, prompting a sell recommendation. They flagged short-term risks and catalysts including:

• First escrow expiry imminent, allowing co-founders to begin share sell-downs

• 2H FY25 earnings expected to be seasonally weaker than 1H

• FY25 results in August may drive FY26 consensus convergence

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Beach Energy reports FY25 results

[9:38 am] The FY25 result should not come as much of a surprise after the company reported its Q4/FY25 production report last week, which drove the stock 9.3% lower.

UBS' key takeaway from the quarterly last week was "a solid operational result over the qtr was overshadowed by a $474m post-tax non-cash impairment charge expected to be realised in the FY25 result (now scheduled 4 Aug-25) arising from a lower pricing outlook, cost inflation and a revision to lower reserves in the Perth basin."

The headline results for FY25 include:

• Production up 9% to 19.7MMboe

• Sales volumes up 16% to 24.7MMboe

• Sales revenue up 13% to $2.0 billion

• Underlying EBITDA up 20% to $1.1 billion

• Operating free cash flow up 46% to $1.1 billion

• Fully franked final dividend of 6 cents pre share

For FY26, the company guided to:

• Production between 19.7-22.0MMboe

• Total capex between $675-775m

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Beach Energy (BPT)

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Diggers and Dealers mining forum schedule

[9:30 am] Diggers & Dealers is a mining investment forum, held annually in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia. The event is in its 34th year. The companies presenting at the conference include:

• Monday 4-Aug: Paladin Energy, Boss Energy, Spartan Resources, Australian Vanadium, Ramelius Resources, Peak Rare Earths, Evolution Mining, 29Metals, Catalyst Metals, Genesis Minerals, Patriot Battery Metals, Australian Strategic Metals, Core Lithium, Emerald Resources, Vmoto, Medallion Metals

• Tuesday 5-Aug: Northern Star Resources, Arafura Rare Earths, Pantoro, Aeris Resources, Regis Resources, Lynas Rare Earths, Brightstar Resources, Ora Banda Mining, WA1 Resources, Greatland Gold, Pilbara Minerals, Capricorn Metals, Deep Yellow, Centaurus Metals, Liontown Resources, Bellevue Gold, Antipa Minerals, Westgold

• Wednesday 6-Aug: West African Resources, Polymetals, Wildcat Resources, Alkane Resources, Chalice Mining, Toubani Resources, Encounter Resources, Firefly Metals, Horizon Metals, Black Cat Syndicate, Gold Road Resources

The information from the presentations may be prices-sensitive, and drive greater share price volatility/volume at the time of the presentation.

Source: Diggers & Dealers

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Endeavour Group Chairman steps down, guides to weak FY25 result

[9:16 am] Endeavour Group's Executive Chairman Ari Mervis has resigned, effective 3 August 2025, citing disagreements with the Board.

"The Board has a process underway to identify and appoint new Non-Executive Directors and will undertake a comprehensive search for a new Independent Chair. It is intended that the new Chair will be in place before 1 January 2026," the company said in a statement.

Endeavour also guided to FY25 sales of $12.06 billion and NPAT between $420-425 million. The sale figure is in-line with JPMorgan estimates ($12.02bn ) but NPAT is a 2.4% miss vs. expectations of $433 million.

Endeavour said Group NPAT was impacted by several one-off items in the second half, including restructuring and redundancy costs and an impairment relating to the closure of the Group's Prowine bottling facility.

Despite the relatively poor update, most analysts believe Endeavour's valuation looks undemanding, but near-term re-rating catalysts appear unlikely.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Endeavour Group (EDV)

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Ramelius outlines vision to become 500koz producer by FY30

[9:13 am] Ramelius Resources says its merger with Spartan Resources has created a leading WA gold company with "strong, highly profitable existing operations, a supercharged growth profile and exceptional exploration upside."

The company's Diggers and Dealers presentation (marked non-price sensitive) outlined:

• FY26 production target of 200koz at AISC of A$1,656/oz

• Long-term vision of over 500koz by FY30

• Long-term AISC target of $1,600-1,800/oz

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Ramelius Resources (RMS)

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Greatland Gold under AISC investigation

[9:09 am] Greatland listed at $6.60 on 24 June, briefly jumped above $7, but has since collapsed to $5.18, a 22% drop from its offer price, marking a swift loss of investor confidence.

Less than a month after listing, Greatland warned it would miss production targets and face higher-than-forecast costs, undermining the credibility of its IPO projections.

The downgraded guidance was formally lodged with ASIC in late May, raising serious questions about what the company and bankers knew during the IPO process. ASIC is now investigating whether the float misled investors, particularly given the rapid timeline between listing and the earnings downgrade.

Source: AFR

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Q2 earnings have crushed expectations

[9:00 am] Q2 S&P 500 blended EPS growth is 10.3%, more than double the 4.9% expected at the end of the quarter, according to FactSet.

• Earnings beats well above average: 82% of companies have beaten EPS expectations, above both the one-year average of 77% and the five-year average of 78%.

• Sales beats also exceed historical norms: 79% of companies have exceeded sales expectations, significantly outpacing the one-year (62%) and five-year (70%) averages.

• Magnitude of EPS surprise is solid but not peak: On average, companies are reporting earnings 8.0% above estimates, which is above the one-year average (6.3%), but slightly below the five-year average (9.1%).

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US July Manufacturing PMI below consensus

[8:58 am] The July ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 48.0, below consensus (49.5) and June’s reading (49.0), signaling ongoing contraction in US manufacturing.

• Production holding up: Despite overall softness, ISM Production Index rose to 51.4 from 50.3, signaling modest growth in output even as other indicators falter.

• Tariffs cloud outlook: Respondents cited tariff-driven cost unpredictability as a key concern, leading to forecasting difficulties, sourcing issues, and delayed investment decisions across sectors.

• Prices easing but still elevated: ISM Prices Index fell to 64.8 from 69.7, indicating a slower pace of input cost inflation, but levels remain historically high.

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A slew of new Trump tariffs

[8:52 am] President Trump unveiled new tariffs over the weekend, lifting the average US tariff rate to 15.2%, up from 13.3%, and well above the 2.3% rate before Trump took office. Here are the key highlights:

• Countries targeted: Major economies like the EU, Japan, and South Korea accepted 15% duties, while Canada (35%), Switzerland (39%), and New Zealand faced even steeper hikes. India (25%), Taiwan (20%), and South Africa (30%) were also hit hard.

• Currency market movements: The Taiwan dollar and Korean won led declines. The Swiss franc slipped post-tariff news, while the Canadian dollar held steady despite the 35% tariff hike.

• Implementation begins soon: Most tariffs will begin after midnight on August 7, giving US Customs limited time to prepare and businesses little room to adjust.

• Sector-specific tariffs pending: Trump is expected to announce additional levies on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals, adding further uncertainty for investors and manufacturers.

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US nonfarm payrolls miss, massive downward revisions to May and June data

[8:48 am] The July employment report was weak across the board, alongside some absurd revisions to prior month data. Here are the key takeaways:

• June payrolls increased 73,000 vs. market expectations of a 110,000 increase

• May jobs report was revised down by 125,000 (from 144,000 to 19,000)

• June jobs report was revised down by 133,000 (from 147,000 to 14,000)

• This implies that a quarter of a million jobs have just vanished from the data

"The net downward revision of 258,000 to May and June payroll growth was the largest two-month revision since 1968 outside of NBER-defined recessions (assuming the economy is not in recession now)," said Goldman Sachs.

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An ugly overnight session

[8:44 am] A pretty weak overnight session where the S&P 500 gapped down and closed around session lows. The move was largely driven by Tech (-2.07%) and Discretionary (-3.59%), with some signs of rotation into defensives (Healthcare, Staples and Utilities all finished higher).

S&P 500 intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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Good morning!

[8:35 am] ASX 200 futures are down 32pts (-0.37%) after the US market pulled back sharply on economic growth concerns, including disappointing July nonfarm payrolls and a sharp revision to prior month (May and June) data.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.