ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 30th June
The S&P/ASX 200 is set for a flattish start despite a strong lead from Wall Street. Here are today's top stories.
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, June 30. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.
ASX 200 closes FY25 up 9.9%
[5:00 pm] Signing off – Here are some of today's key highlights from our Evening Wrap.
ASX 200 finished the session up 0.33% but off session highs of 0.73%
Despite some volatility at the index level, breadth was widely positive, with 139 S&P/ASX 200 constituents (70%) closing flat or higher
VanEck's Australian Equal-weight ETF also closed 0.66% higher, outperforming the official benchmark by 33 bps
Overall price action continues to remain choppy as the market trades around record levels and highest price-to-earnings in over two decades (ex-Covid). This isn't necessarily bullish or bearish, but some dicey price action as the market digests the recent move and awaits for clearer directional catalysts
ASX 200 closes FY25 out 9.9% higher and up 1.28% in June, marking a third straight month of gains and the highest monthly close on record
Commonwealth Bank slipped for a second straight session, down 0.33% while BHP also suffered on slightly lower iron ore prices, shares down 2.0%
S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare Index bounced 1.58% after falling 1.41% on Friday, CSL (+2.1%), Pro Medicus (+1.6%) and Cochlear (+1.6%) lead to the upside
Droneshield momentum runs out of steam
[3:10 pm] Droneshield was looking awfully toppy last Friday, and this weak price action has continued today.
Last Friday, the stock opened 4.5% higher ($2.50), briefly rallied 8.8% ($2.60) but finished the session 0.4% lower ($2.38%).
The stock tried to bounce on Monday, opening 3.3% higher (2.47%) and likely driven by its $9.7 million Latin American contract win this morning. Though the gains quickly faded, currently down 5.8% to $2.24.
NHF surges on UBS upgrade
[2:28 pm] NHF shares rallied 9.0% to the highest level since August 2024 after UBS upgraded the stock to Buy (from Neutral). Here are some of the key takeaways from the report:
Rating Upgrade: NHF upgraded from Neutral to Buy due to its attractive valuation compared to Medibank, with a ~30% or ~6x PE discount (NHF at 14.7x vs. MPL at 21.3x).
Supportive Industry Backdrop: Australian Resident Health Insurance (88% of FY25e underlying profit) benefits from strong policy growth (+2.3%), an eight-year high in penetration, and slowing hospital claims inflation per person.
Operational Improvements: Cost efficiencies expected from merging Midnight Health and Honeysuckle in Health Services, and Thrive’s new IT platform enhancing margins via automation.
Financial Outlook: Forecasted 10% EPS CAGR over FY25-28e, with a top-line growth of 7% CAGR and an 18% group ROE.
Price Target Increase: Price target raised to $7.85 (from $7.35), implying a ~25% total shareholder return (TSR)
China factory activity inches higher
[2:04 pm] China's NBS Manufacturing PMI was 49.7 in June, up from 49.5 in May and in-line with market expectations. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The non-manufacturing also ticked slightly higher to 50.5 in June, up from 50.3 in the prior month.
APRA drops mortgage share banking stats
[1:46 pm] Banking regulator APRA has released its monthly stats on the home loan market for May. The stats show Commonwealth Bank is still the market leader for owner occupier loans with 24.59% of the market share. The lender's issued loans totalled $388.8 billion on total nationwide loans of $1.58 trillion for owner occupiers.
Westpac is second at 20.37%, with NAB at 13.97% and ANZ Bank at 13.36%.
For investors, CBA is also the market leader issuing $200.2 billions in loan for market share of 26.8% in May.
By Tom Richardson
Citi neutral on ANZ Bank
[1:10 pm] Broker Citi has weighed in on ANZ Bank shares after UBS recently downgraded the stock to a sell with a $26.50 price target.
Citi is neutral rated with a $27.50 price target, versus Monday's exchange traded price of $29.18.
"ANZ continues to underperform peers, as despite its more reasonable valuation investors remain concerned around the strategic direction of the bank, management change, risks around costs and potential for dividend cuts," the broker said.
Citi forecasts ANZ Bank to hold dividends flat at $1.66 per share between FY 2025 to FY 2027.
By Tom Richardson
Canada agrees to drop digital services tax, Wall Street eyes new record
[12:42 pm] US equity futures have advanced after news agencies reported Canada has agreed to drop a proposed tax on the revenues of US tech giants in exchange for a resumption of trade talks with the US executive.
At lunchtime Nasdaq 100 futures have gained 0.47% to suggest Wall Street will set a new record high in Monday's session.
By Tom Richardson
Macquarie jumps on Bank of America upgrade
[12:16 pm] Shares in asset manager and investment bank Macquarie added 3.6% to $228.08 at lunchtime after analysts at Bank of America upgraded their valuation 14% to $250 from $214.
Macquarie is a potential winner from lower interest rates as capital market activity ticks higher. Australian investors also benefit as the US dollar weakens given much of its earnings are in US dollars.
By Tom Richardson
Zip hits five-month high
[11:59 am] Zip shares gained another 3.3% on Monday, trading at the highest level since 29 January. The stock has been in a strong uptrend since its guidance upgrade on 11 June, where the company announced:
FY25 EBTDA guidance of "at least $160 million" compared to its April guidance of "at least $153 million", representing an increase of at least 4.5%.
Management cited continued momentum throughout May, "particularly in the US where TTV has continued to grow above 40% year on year, reflecting the resilience of our business model and disciplined execution of our strategy."
UBS upgraded its target price the next day (12-Jun) from $3.20 to $3.40, citing "accelerating US customer growth comes while credit loss performance remains unchanged."
Zip shares rallied 15.4% on the day of the announcement, and has rallied a further 16.7% since.
James Hardie rallies as Azek shareholders approve merger
[11:46 am] James Hardie shares are up 7.6% after Azek shareholders voted in favour of the proposed merger between the two companies.
The takeover involves James Hardie paying Azek shareholders $26.45 per share in cash and exchange 1.034 JHX shares for each Azek share, in a deal worth $8.75 billion. JHX shareholders will effectively own approximately 74% of the merged entity.
A Macquarie note dated 25 March highlighted a few pros and cons of the merger:
The good: "AZEK inherently is an attractive asset, with a strong historical growth profile and prospective penetration and material conversion opportunities."
The bad: "Paying ~6x price/book for an asset that has its own substantial intangible asset load (52% of total assets) will likely materially dilute JHX's formidable return profile (ROCE of 55% last year)."
Small caps making moves
[11:00 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers in early trade.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
OCA | Oceania Healthcare | 13.89% | $0.62 |
PMT | Patriot Battery Metals | 8.16% | $0.27 |
MTM | Mtm Critical Metals | 7.89% | $0.62 |
ELS | Elsight | 7.88% | $1.78 |
BKY | Berkeley Energia | 7.14% | $0.60 |
CVC | Cvc | 7.00% | $2.14 |
AVR | Anteris Technologies | 6.09% | $6.27 |
29M | 29Metals | 5.45% | $0.29 |
STX | Strike Energy | 5.19% | $0.14 |
QAL | Qualitas | 4.80% | $3.49 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
SVL | Silver Mines | -8.33% | $0.11 |
BTL | Beetaloo Energy Australia | -8.18% | $0.20 |
BTR | Brightstar Resources | -5.10% | $0.47 |
OMH | Om Holdings | -5.08% | $0.28 |
ARU | Arafura Rare Earths Ltd | -4.32% | $0.18 |
MAU | Magnetic Resources | -4.30% | $1.45 |
KP2 | Kore Potash Plc | -4.26% | $0.05 |
MEI | Meteoric Resources | -4.00% | $0.12 |
AUC | Ausgold | -3.92% | $0.74 |
BC8 | Black Cat Syndicate | -3.90% | $0.74 |
Top gainers and losers in early trade
[10:30 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
JHX | James Hardie | 9.04% | $42.47 |
NHF | Nib Holdings | 4.48% | $6.76 |
XYZ | Block | 3.68% | $102.31 |
MQG | Macquarie Group | 2.99% | $226.78 |
REH | Reece | 2.76% | $14.51 |
TUA | Tuas | 2.69% | $6.10 |
ADT | Adriatic Metals | 2.08% | $5.64 |
HUB | Hub24 | 1.89% | $88.73 |
PNI | Pinnacle Investment Management | 1.89% | $20.46 |
AIZ | Air New Zealand | 1.89% | $0.54 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
AAI | Alcoa Corporation | -4.23% | $43.97 |
DGT | Digico Infrastructure REIT | -4.09% | $3.28 |
LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | -3.83% | $8.54 |
ZIM | Zimplats Holdings | -3.27% | $15.37 |
VGN | Virgin Australia | -3.14% | $3.08 |
CMM | Capricorn Metals | -2.57% | $9.46 |
NIC | Nickel Industries | -2.50% | $0.70 |
NEM | Newmont Corporation | -2.36% | $86.36 |
EMR | Emerald Resources | -2.06% | $3.81 |
GGP | Greatland Resources | -1.95% | $7.05 |
Reece target cut by 24%
[10:17 am] UBS has cut its target price for Reece by 24% from $17.70 to $13.50 after the company's trading update last Friday.
The company guided to $548-558 million EBIT for FY25 (suggesting 2H25 performance ~12% below consensus expectations) due to challenging trading conditions.
Reece said that ANZ volumes remain weak, and recent interest rate cuts haven't boosted housing activity. In the US, residential housing starts have slowed due to high mortgage rates and affordability challenges. The company also faces intensifying competition across all US segments.
UBS retained a Sell rating given the uncertainty around Australia, New Zealand and US demand. The analysts said the stock is trading at a 1-year forward PE of 31x, above its long-term average of 29x and peer average of 22x.
"We expect stock performance to continue to be weighed upon by a more uncertain macro backdrop, given housing affordability issues and tariff/geopolitical uncertainty on the US resi cycle," says UBS.
Superloop upgrades FY25 guidance
[10:01 am] Superloop upgraded its EBITDA guidance to "above $91 million" from previous expectations of $83-88 million, citing "ongoing strong trading performance across the business."
This puts the company roughly 5.8% ahead of Citi's April forecast of $86 million for FY26 EBITDA. Superloop shares are up 4.0% at the time of writing.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Superloop (SLC)
Liontown CFO and COO to step down
[9:53 am] Liontown's CFO Jon Latto and COO Adam Smits advised of their decisions to step down from their roles.
Head of Finance Graeme Pettit has been appointed as interim CFO as Liontown commences a formal process to identify and appoint a new CFO.
Ryan Hair, the current CFO of Wesfarmers' Covalent Lithium Project will come on board on August as COO.
Both Latto and Smits do not own any Liontown shares, according to Morningstar data.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Liontown Resources (LTR)
Electro Optic Systems trading update
[9:45 am] Electro Optic Systems guides to first-half 2025 revenue of $40-45 million vs. Bell Potter estimates of $64 million.
The guidance includes approximately $12m (US$8m) of previously constrained revenue, now recognised following the finalisation of a longstanding Middle East customer contract. As part of resolving this contract, the company expects to receive approximately $60 million (US$40 million) in cash from the customer shortly.
The contract backlog is currently $170 million, up 24% compared to the $136 million at 31 December 2024.
Overall, this represents a 33% miss against Bell Potter's estimates. While EOS has previously flagged that full-year 2025 revenue will be heavily weighted toward the second half, Bell Potter already factors in this same expectation with a 40/60% split.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Electro Optic Systems (EOS)
West African Resources pours first gold at Kiaka
[9:40 am] West African Resources poured its first gold "ahead of schedule and under budget" at its Kiaka Gold Project in Burkina Faso.
Project construction was completed in the second quarter of 2025, with ramp up "progressing smoothly with recoveries consistently above 92%."
"First gold at Kiaka is a major milestone for West African Resources, and a key step towards our target of being a +500,000 ounces per annum gold producer by 2030," said Chairman Richard Hyde.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: West African Resources (WAF)
MinRes completes sale of Yilgarn Hub
[9:30 am] MinRes has completed the sale of its iron ore operations and assets in the Yilgarn region to Yilgarn Iron Investments.
The company announced plans to cease iron ore shipments from the Yilgarn Hub on 19 June 2024, with operations to halt by 31 December. A comprehensive assessment confirmed that operations were not financially viable beyond the end of the calendar year. The decision was influenced by factors including the limited remaining mine life across the five operating mines and significant capital cost required to develop new resources.
The commercial terms of the sale was no disclosed and 'immaterial'. MinRes retains all gold and lithium rights on the tenements within the Yilgarn Hub.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Mineral Resources (MIN)
Genusplus awarded $105m battery energy story project
[9:22 am] GenusPlus Group awarded a contract for the design, construction and commissioning of the Reeves Plains Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) in South Australia.
The contract value is approximately $105 million.
Last week, GenusPlus lifted its FY25 EBITDA growth guidance to 28-32% from prior guidance of at least 20%. The stock briefly rallied (26-Jun) 3.3% on the news, but finished the session down 0.5%, likely reflecting its strong year-to-date rally, up 47% to record levels.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Genusplus (GNP)
Pathology stocks face price-fixing probe
[9:14 am] Mark Butler warned Sonic Healthcare, Healius, and Australian Clinical Labs of a price-fixing investigation if they stop bulk-billing for essential tests due to funding cuts starting July 1, according to the Financial Review.
Government rebate changes will reduce payments for some pathology tests, potentially cutting industry revenue by $100 million annually, with a 70% rebate reduction for certain tests.
The three companies support an Australian Pathology campaign warning that funding cuts will force them to charge patients for tests like vitamin B12 and urine tests, previously bulk-billed.
Butler suggested the companies are using a scare campaign to protect profits, citing their high earnings during the COVID-19 pandemic, and is considering mandating bulk-billing or referring price-fixing to the ACCC.
From July 1, rebates for labour-intensive tests (e.g. haematology, immunology) will increase for the first time in 25 years, but providers say this covers only one-third of pathology items.
About 1 million patients are tested weekly, with 100,000 weekly vitamin B12 tests. The industry cites rising costs (rents, wages), while the government argues automation lowers costs.
Source: AFR
Oil posts largest weekly decline in two years
[9:07 am] WTI crude finished the week down 12.0% to US$64.7 a barrel, marking the largest weekly decline in approximately two years as geopolitical risk premiums collapsed following the Israel-Iran ceasefire.
Goldman Sachs noted options markets now price just a 4% chance of a Strait of Hormuz disruption following the truce. According to Polymarket, the odds of Iran closing the Strait hit as high as 60% on 22 July.
Trump also signaled that China can buy Iranian oil despite sanctions, further boosting energy demand.
MotorCycle Holdings acquires Peter Stevens and Harley-Heaven
[9:04 am] MotorCycle Holdings has entered into a binding agreement to acquire select business assets of Peter Stevens and Harley Heaven.
Conditions to completion of the acquisition include MTO obtaining the necessary motor dealer licences in each state and a minimum number of employees accepting employment with MTO.
The transaction is expected to be in the range of $7-9 million, subject to completion adjustments plus motorcycle inventory.
The acquisition to be funded by cash reserves and facilities, expected to be earnings accretive.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: MotorCycle Holdings (MTO)
What's driving stocks?
[8:55 am] The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both logged fresh all-time highs after a sharp rebound off session lows in the last hour of trade. Indices were volatile amid mixed trade-related headlines:
Us and China have finalised a 'trade understanding', where China will commitment to deliver rare earths and US will cancel restrictive countermeasures
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the US plans to reach agreements with 10 major trading partners
Trump said he is suspending trade talks with Canada over its plans to impose a digital services tax, which applies to Canadian and foreign businesses that engage with online users in Canada
EU and US believe they can reach a deadline by 9-Jul deadline, EU seeking mutually benefit deal but also preparing countermeasures if talks fall apart
Taiwan says "constructive progress' being made in second round of trade talks with the US
Good morning!
[8:30 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures are up 5pts (+0.05%) despite a strong lead from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both logged fresh all-time highs.
If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.
