ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 2nd February

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, February 2. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 nears one-month low as banks give back gains

[2:11 pm] ASX 200 down 1.04%, trading around intraday lows.

• Materials (XMJ) down 3.0%, bouncing off session lows of -4.5%. Some truly unprecedented volatility across gold, silver and base metals.

• The miner selloff triggered a brief rotation into banks, with CBA rallying as much as 2.3% in early trade, now up just 0.80%. CBA's pullback has now brought the broader Financials Index (XFJ) back into negative territory, down 0.1%. This is largely why the ASX 200 is back towards intraday lows

• Tech stocks continue to get crushed, with the Tech Index (XIJ) down 7.8% over the last five sessions, all of which have been red. The index is now trading at the lowest since February 2024.

This is not a good look, with the market slicing through the 20-and-50 day (red and green) moving averages. A mix of poor market breadth, yield returning to recent highs and resource volatility might flip the path of least resistance to the downside. The market's had a good run up since the Oct-Nov selloff last year, but it needs to muster up some strength here to avoid a further breakdown in technicals. It's funny how the market always seems to sell off right as we head into results season. That's all for today. Let's see if the dust settles for commodity prices overnight.

ASX 200 daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Australian inflation likely to moderate in January

[1:06 pm] Melbourne Institute data shows monthly inflation easing sharply, reflecting the impact of earlier monetary tightening.

• Monthly Inflation Gauge rose 0.2% in January 2026, down from December’s 1%, the slowest pace since August.

• Moderation suggests demand-side pressures are easing, though underlying inflation remains above target and the labor market tight.

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Commodity prices trend lower

[1:03 pm] Commodity prices are trading broadly lower despite suffering a historic selloff last Friday.

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Australian job ads rebound in December

[12:00 pm] ANZ-Indeed data shows a sharp monthly rise in job advertisements, signalling renewed hiring demand toward year-end.

• Job ads up 4.4% month-on-month in December, rebounding from a 0.8% decline in November, the strongest monthly gain since February 2022.

• Annual job ads down 3.2% year-on-year but still 11.8% above pre-pandemic levels, highlighting a tight labor market.

• Gains concentrated in retail, customer service, and food services, reflecting seasonal recruitment ahead of the holidays.

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Uranium stocks broadly lower

[11:56 am] High-flying uranium stocks have been caught up in the broad resource selloff, with most names down around 4-5%. This is despite uranium futures briefly crossing US$100/lb on Friday for the first time since February 2024.

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Miners bounce off session lows

[11:22 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index is currently down 2.2%, marking a sizeable bounce from session lows of -4.5%.

Here's how a few major names from each commodity have bounced:

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Analysts remain constructive on PLS Group

[11:20 am] PLS delivered a better-than-expected Q2 result last Friday, driven by stronger realised pricing and higher sales volume. However, the stock dipped 6.5%, largely reflecting a sharp selloff in Chinese lithium futures.

• Goldman Sachs maintained Sell, target $3.00. Price beat driven by contract structure and timing, idle plant restart contingent on price durability, growth sequencing and cash flexibility highlighted.

• Macquarie maintained Neutral, target $4.50. Operational metrics solid despite cost pressures, Ngungaju restart aligns with price recovery, downstream softness flagged as ongoing headwind.

• Jarden raised target to $2.50 from $2.40, maintained Neutral. Ngungaju restart expected to lift long-term output, strong price realisation, liquidity seen as key competitive edge, guidance range achievable.

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ASX 200 lower as miners dip

[10:18 am] ASX 200 down 0.54%, already off session lows of -0.78%. A very ugly day for the Materials sector, which may be driving some rotation back into banks (CBA up 2.1%) as well as the broader defensive/value-oriented pockets of the market. The ASX 200 is now on track to fall for four straight sessions, dipping back to the 20-day moving average.

ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Base metals, iron ore and lithium stocks broadly lower

[10:09 am] A broad list of resource names are trading lower, with notable declines from silver, lithium and copper-related plays.

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Gold stocks open sharply lower

[10:05 am] The average large cap gold stock is down 8.0% in early trade.

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Housing growth holds up, momentum clearly slowing

[9:45] Australian home values lifted again in January, but the data shows growth narrowing to cheaper segments as affordability and credit pressures build.

National home values rose 0.8% in January, up from 0.6% in December, with all capitals and regions recording gains despite mixed momentum.

• Sydney 0.2% and Melbourne 0.1% continued to drag on the headline, with both markets still below prior peaks at -0.1% and -0.7% respectively.

• Mid-sized capitals are decelerating from very strong levels. Perth rose 2.0% but down from a 2.9% MoM peak in November, Brisbane slowed to 1.6% from 2.0%, and Adelaide eased to 1.2% from 1.8%.

• Supply remains the key support. Listings are 19% below last year and 25% below the five-year average, while sales are 2.7% higher than a year ago and 1.8% below the five-year average.

• Growth is increasingly concentrated at lower price points. Lower quartile house values across capitals rose 1.3% versus 0.3% for the upper quartile, reflecting first home buyer and value-driven demand.

• Tim Lawless, Cotality’s research director, noted: “Despite the most unaffordable conditions on record in many cities, along with a rebound in cost of living pressures and prospect of a rate hike as early as this Tuesday, we are still seeing a broad-based rise in housing values.”

Source: Cotality

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Hot Chili requests trading halt

[9:39 am] Hot Chili has requested a trading halt pending an announcement of a proposed capital raising, to be lifted by 4 February or upon release of the announcement.

Shares in the copper explorer have rallied 15% year-to-date and up 106% in the past three months.

Copper stocks are set to tumble this morning after commodity markets experienced a steep selloff overnight.

Company page: Hot Chili (HCH)

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Graincorp guidance reset reflects tough grain cycle

[9:29] GrainCorp guided FY26 below market expectations as oversupply and weak pricing continue to weigh on margins and volumes.

• FY26 underlying NPAT guided at $20–50m vs. $85.3m ests (59% miss), reflecting significantly weaker earnings expectations

• FY26 underlying EBITDA guided at $200–240m vs. $305.6m ests (28% miss), with lower volumes and margin pressure across the cycle

• Global grain markets remain in cyclical oversupply with low prices, keeping grain export margins at multi-year lows

• FY26 receivals expected at 11.0–12.0Mt vs. 13.3Mt in FY25, with exports seen at 5.5–6.5Mt vs. 7.0Mt, pointing to lower throughput

• Nutrition and Energy expected to be broadly in-line with FY25 at the margin level, while Agri Energy contribution is expected to be lower due to uncertainty around US biofuels policy, alongside accelerating cost management initiatives

Graincorp has suffered two sharp selloffs in recent months, with a 10.8% dip on 13-Nov following a weaker-than-expected FY25 result and another 15.3% tumble on 17-Dec after flagging weaker-than-expected FY26 receival volumes.

Company page: GrainCorp (GNC) | By Stephanie Gardner

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PYC Therapeutics plans $600 million raising

[9:20 am]ASX-listed RNA therapy developer PYC Therapeutics is set for a major equity raise to fund its pipeline targeting rare genetic diseases, the AFR reported this morning.

• Equity raising expected to exceed $600m, likely via placement, managed by Barrenjoey Capital Partners and E&P Capital.

• PYC shares have rallied 31% over the past twelve months to $1.60, up 31% but below October 2024 peak near $2.

• Pipeline focuses on four RNA-based therapies: Phelan-McDermid Syndrome (pre-clinical), Retinitis Pigmentosa type 11, Autosomal Dominant Optic Atrophy, and polycystic kidney disease (phase 1/2 trials).

• Founder-backed with 32.01% held by Alan Tribe, who invested in 2017.

Source: AFR

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Qoria set for merger with US peer

[9:16 am] Perth-based monitoring software provider Qoria plans a transformative deal with US tech company Aura, more than doubling its current share price and pushing global expansion ambitions, according to the AFR.

• Merger structured as a scrip deal/reverse takeover, valuing Qoria at 72 cents per share, over twice its last traded price

• Qoria shares have tumbled more than 60% in recent months. The stock was trading at a record high of 94 cents on 21 October 2025

• Aura offers family-focused screen-time and cyber-protection tools, with a US$1.6bn valuation as of March 2025.

Source: AFR

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Trump lines up Warsh for Fed chair

[9:04] Markets are repricing US rate expectations as Donald Trump prepares to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, with immediate spillovers across equities, bonds and FX.

• US equities fell, Treasury yields rose and the US dollar strengthened as markets reacted to speculation Kevin Warsh will be nominated Fed chair.

• Market moves reflect Warsh’s reputation as an inflation hawk, including past warnings on inflation risks and support for a smaller Fed balance sheet, despite his more recent alignment with Trump’s calls for lower rates.

• Prediction markets showed a sharp rise in the probability of Warsh’s nomination ahead of an expected announcement, reinforcing conviction in the trade.

• The Fed held rates steady last week after three cuts in late 2025, increasing the sensitivity of markets to leadership and forward guidance risk.

• Senate confirmation remains a material uncertainty, with a key Republican senator signalling he will block Fed nominees until a Justice Department investigation involving the central bank is resolved

By Stephanie Gardner

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Valuation gap pushes Rio–Glencore’s biggest-ever mining deal toward extension

[9:01] Bloomberg reports that Rio Tinto and Glencore are seeking more time to bridge a valuation gap on a proposed tie-up that would create the world’s biggest miner, with copper strategy the main driver rather than near-term synergies.

• Talks are seen as highly likely to be extended beyond the 5 Feb UK Takeover Panel deadline as both sides remain engaged but continue to negotiate valuation, including the premium Glencore is seeking

• A combined group would be valued at about US$235bn, making it the industry’s largest ever deal

• Copper is the strategic centrepiece. Rio would roughly double copper output and add about 1m tonnes of future growth at a time when copper prices are near record highs and up about 45% over the past year

• Valuation risk centres on Glencore’s copper business, which has seen output fall for four straight years despite plans outlined in December to almost double production over the next decade

• Synergies are broad and strategic rather than operational, with limited asset overlap. Rio is seeking to build a case around efficiency gains, improved development of growth projects and Glencore’s marketing arm to justify any premium, a tougher sell for conservative Australian shareholders who own close to 20% of Rio

By Stephanie Gardner

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How does gold perform after a sharp selloff?

[8:58 am] Here's a look at how gold performed after major selloffs (down more than 5%) since the 90s.

Source: Author's own calculations | ~ indicates gaps in our data source

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S&P 500 Q4 earnings beat expectations

[8:52 am] Early Q4 results show stronger-than-expected earnings growth, though revenue beats remain modest and slightly below historical averages, according to FactSet.

• EPS growth 11.9% vs. 8.3% ests at quarter-end.

• Revenue growth 8.2%, with 65% of reporting companies surpassing consensus sales, below one-year average of 71%.

• 75% of reporting companies beat EPS estimates, slightly below the one-year average of 79% and five-year average of 78%.

• Aggregate earnings are 9.1% above expectations, above one-year (7.4%) and five-year (7.7%) averages.

• Aggregate revenues 1.2% above expectations, slightly below one-year (1.3%) and five-year (2.0%) averages.

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Apple Q1 beats on iPhone strength

[8:50 am] Apple shares edged 0.4% higher overnight as its December-quarter results exceeded expectations, driven by strong iPhone demand and better-than-expected gross margin guidance, despite ongoing supply constraints.

• Revenue up 16% year-on-year, led by iPhone sales growth of 23%, with China standing out and inventory remaining lean amid under-shipping demand.

• March-quarter revenue guidance of +13-16% vs. 10% ests.

• Gross margin guidance 48-49% vs. Street at 47.6%, buoyed by surging memory pricing, though no extended GM commentary was provided.

• Positive iPhone demand and margin outlook offset by ongoing supply constraints and elevated component costs.

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US wholesale inflation surprises on upside

[8:49 am] December producer prices rose faster than expected, signalling companies are passing on tariff and input costs, keeping inflationary pressures elevated.

• PPI rose 0.5% MoM vs. 0.2% ests, and 3.0% YoY vs. 2.8% ests (0.3% MoM beat, 0.2% YoY beat).

• Core PPI jumped 0.7% MoM vs. 0.2% ests, 3.3% YoY vs. 2.9% ests, boosted by appliances, construction machinery, industrial chemicals and light trucks.

• Services costs rose sharply, driven by higher trade profit margins in machinery and equipment wholesaling, while goods prices were flat due to cheaper energy.

Source: Bloomberg

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Investor optimism hits extremes

[8:45 am] Bank of America signals overbought conditions in global markets, with inflows favouring bonds, gold and defensive sectors amid heightened downside risk for equities.

• BofA’s Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 9.4 from 9.2, maintaining a sell signal for risk assets due to strong stock index breadth, long-only positioning and credit market technicals.

• 89% of MSCI global stocks trade above 50-and 200-day averages, pushing markets into historically overbought territory with elevated downside risk.

• Preferred 2026 positioning includes long bonds as a disinflation hedge, bullish exposure to international assets like China, gold as a USD debasement hedge, and mid-cap stocks for domestic momentum.

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US majors cautious on Venezuela reset

[8:42 am] Exxon and Chevron see long-term upside in Venezuela’s vast reserves but remain disciplined as legal, fiscal and political risks still dominate capital decisions.

• Trump urged US oil majors to invest US$100bn to rebuild Venezuela’s oil sector, but both Exxon and Chevron stressed new capital must compete globally and be protected by reform.

• Chevron, the only US major operating locally, can lift Venezuela output by up to 50% using cash from existing assets without drawing on its global capex budget.

• Chevron currently produces about 250,000 bpd via Petroleos de Venezuela SA JVs, contributing roughly 2% of group cash flow, with early profits earmarked to recover debts and fund maintenance.

• Venezuela has cut taxes and allowed greater foreign ownership, while the US Treasury expanded licences for exporting and refining Venezuelan crude, improving investability at the margin.

• Exxon highlighted structural risks, noting past nationalisations in the 1970s and 2000s, and said legal stability and democratic reform are pre-requisites before committing material capital.

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OPEC+ holds supply line despite geopolitical heat

[8:41 am] OPEC+ kept production frozen into March, prioritising caution over price momentum as Iran risks rise and global oversupply looms.

• OPEC+ ratified a March production hold, extending the three-month freeze agreed in November even after Brent pushed above US$70/bbl on Iran strike fears.

• Eight core members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia deferred any decision on Q2 output until the March 1 meeting, keeping policy optional amid rising US–Iran tension.

• Markets face a looming glut with the IEA warning demand growth is slowing while supply expands from the US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana, raising risk of price pressure.

• Analysts from JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley argue OPEC+ may ultimately need to cut output to defend prices if surplus conditions deepen.

• Saudi Arabia still has scope to restore about 1.2m bpd shut since 2023, but last year’s 18% oil price slump highlights the fiscal risk of adding supply too aggressively.

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Precious metals suffer historic reversal

[8:37 am] A parabolic rally in gold and silver snapped violently as a surging US dollar and positioning unwind triggered the biggest precious-metals shock in decades.

• Gold fell more than 12% intraday to below US$5,000, its largest session decline since the early 1980s, before closing down 8.9% at US$4,894/oz.

• Silver plunged as much as 36% intraday, a record fall, and settled down 26% at US$85.20/oz, pointing to forced deleveraging across metals.

• The catalyst was a sharp US dollar rebound after Trump confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed chair nominee, viewed as the most hawkish inflation fighter, lifting the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index 0.9%.

• Positioning amplified the move as heavy call-option ownership and dealer gamma hedging flipped from momentum buying into mechanical selling through key Comex strikes around US$5,300, US$5,200 and US$5,100.

• Despite the rout, momentum remains elevated with gold still up 13% and silver up 19% for the month, while RSI near 90 signals further volatility and two-way risk remain extreme.

Source: Bloomberg

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 60 pts (-0.68%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks lower but off worst levels

• US weekly recap: S&P 500 (+0.34%), Nasdaq (-0.17%), Dow (-0.42%), Russell 2000 (-2.08%)

• US Jan recap: Russell 2000 (+5.31%), Dow (+1.73%), S&P 500 (+1.37%) and Nasdaq (+0.95%)

• Commodity markets faced the worst one-day selloff in decades, with notable decliners including silver (-26.3%), platinum (-18.0%), palladium (-14.6%), gold (-9.0%), tin (-6.1%), copper (-5.0%)

• Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as Fed Chair

To catch up on all overnight developments, check out today's Morning Wrap.