ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 28th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, July 28. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 3:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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A sea of red for lithium stocks

[3:00 pm] Chinese lithium prices hit limit down of 7.98% (73,120 yuan a tonne), with most lithium stocks trading at intraday lows.

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Helloworld trending higher

[1:33 pm] Missed this announcement this morning – Helloworld upgraded its FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $58-62 million vs. prior $52-56 million (11% upgrade at the midpoint).

The key takeaways from the announcement include:

• HLO’s passenger total transaction volumes have declined year-on-year due to marginally lower customer numbers, changes in destination mix from higher spending long-haul trips to more mid-haul destinations including Japan, Bali, Thailand and Fiji, and lower airfares.

• However, margins have improved slightly, costs have been well managed

• Cruise sales continue to grow strongly, and our Ready Rooms business is up 110% on the previous corresponding period

Helloworld shares opened 8.4% higher, currently up 15.1% ($1.71) to a fresh four month high.

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Chinese lithium futures hit intraday low

[1:23 pm] It's been a wild session for Chinese lithium carbonate futures, with prices opening around 6% lower (74,500 yuan), recovering to a 1.% decline in by 12:30 pm AEST (78,250 yuan) and now nearing limit down of -8% (73,120 yuan).

The sharp reversal has now pulled local lithium names back to intraday lows, with Pilbara Minerals down 7.95% to $1.77.

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Euroz Hartleys reverses ex-dividend decline

[11:53 am] Euroz Hartleys shares are showing uncanny resilience despite trading ex-dividend this morning. The company is paying shareholders a special dividend of 14 cents per share — a 14% yield based on last Friday's $1.00 close. While the stock opened 10% lower on Monday, it has since recovered to just 2% down.

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Boss Energy hits $2.00

[11:49 am] Boss Energy continues to spiral lower, currently down 41% and trading at the $2.00 level for the first time since December 2022. This is despite opening the session 33% lower ($2.28).

Boss was once up almost 90% year-to-date in late June, now down 20% year-to-date.

Boss Energy intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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Chinese lithium futures open sharply lower

[11:02 am] Chinese lithium futures opened 6.4% lower to 74,480 yuan a tonne.

This mirrors the weak open for most lithium stocks. Notable declines include Pilbara Minerals (-6.6%), Liontown Resources (-5.3%) and Winsome Resources (-5.0%).

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Small caps making moves

[10:52 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers in early trade.

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Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:32 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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Boss Energy dives 37% to near two-year low

[10:12 am] Boss Energy opened the session 33% lower ($2.28) and currently down 38.2% ($2.10).

Despite a strong FY25 performance, Boss guided FY26 production and costs below consensus, citing challenges in achieving nameplate capacity due to potential issues with mineralisation continuity and leachability. FY26 guidance includes C1 cash costs of A$41-45/lb (17-29% above Macquarie’s $34.93/lb estimate), AISC of A$64-70/lb (35-48% above $47.29/lb), capex of $56-62m (56-72% above $36m), and Honeymoon production of 1.6m lbs (7% below 1.72m lbs), with an independent review planned to assess these impacts.

To make matters worse, the company's CEO Duncan Craib announced his plans to step down last Thursday.

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Analysts take on Whitehaven Coal

[9:57 am] Whitehaven shares slipped 1.1% last Friday after the company reported strong Q4 production in Queensland, offset by Narrabri's weakness and softer met coal prices, with costs and capex beating guidance, supporting modest earnings upgrades. Here are the key takeaways from brokers.

• CLSA upgraded to Hold, raised target from $5.30 to $6.30. Strong Queensland production and a comfortable balance sheet drive the upgrade, with expectations of improved free cash flow in FY26.

• JPMorgan downgraded to Neutral, target remains $6.10. Despite solid Queensland volumes and better-than-expected costs, valuation concerns post-rally prompt a downgrade.

• Macquarie maintains Neutral, raised target from $5.50 to $7.00. Improved Queensland performance and capex deferral support a higher target, though pricing realization disappointed.

• Goldman Sachs maintains Neutral, raised target from $5.30 to $6.20. Queensland productivity gains and lower-than-guided costs and capex reinforce a positive outlook, favoring brownfield growth.

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Vysarn guides to material growth in FY26

[9:44 am] Vertically integrated water services provider Vysarn says maintaining its 2H25 run-rate into FY26 would deliver material year-on-year growth

The investor presentation guided to FY26 net profit before tax of $19.6 million, representing 31% year-on-year growth. Vysarn shares are up 24% year-to-date and up 40% in the past twelve months.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Vysarn (VYS)

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Boss Energy flags FY26 production challenges

[9:39 am] Boss Energy reported a strong June quarter and full-year production report, but flagged potential challenges in reaching nameplate capacity.

• Quarterly Honeymoon production of 349.2k (lbs U308), up 18% vs. the March quarter

• Quarterly C1 cost of A$36/lb vs. FY25 guidance of A$37-41/lb

• Full-year Honeymoon production of 872.6k vs. guidance of 850k

• Cash and liquid assets of $224m with zero debt

Despite the strong performance and production uplift in FY25, the company guided to below consensus production and costs for FY26. Here are the key takeaways from the announcement:

• "Boss has identified potential challenges that may arise in achieving nameplate capacity as previously outlined in the EFS. This is largely due to the potential for less continuity of mineralisation and leachability."

• "An independent review by subject matter experts will commence shortly to determine the extent to which the above affects EFS assumptions. Boss will keep the market informed."

Boss guided to the below figures (vs. Macquarie ests as at Jul-25):

• FY26 C1 cash cost guidance of A$41-45/lb vs. $34.93/lb (23% higher than expected)

• AISC of A$64-70/lb vs. $47.29/lb (41.7% higher than expected)

• Capex of $56-62m vs. $36m (64% higher than expected)

• Honeymoon production of 1.6m lbs vs. 1.72m lbs (7% miss)

This is not a good look.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Boss Energy (BOE)

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Bellevue Gold misses guidance, reports record free cash flow

[9:25 am] Bellevue Gold reported June quarter gold production of 38.9koz, below its 40-45koz guidance, though the figures were already flagged on 7 July. The quarterly production report also noted:

• AISC of A$2,253/oz for the quarter, down from A$3,124/oz in the March quarter

• Record free cash flow of $67 million vs. $30m outflow in March quarter

• Cash and gold on hand increased to $152 million

• Debt remains unchanged at $100m, with no minimum mandatory principal repayments until 2027

• FY26 production and cost guidance will be provided in early August

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Bellevue Gold (BGL)

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Stanmore reports June quarter production

[9:20 am] Stanmore reported ROM coal production of 4.9Mt (6.1% ahead of 4.62Mt ests), including "a quarterly site record at South Walker Creek, rebounding strongly from the prior quarter as the significant wet weather impacts subsided and productivities improved."

The report noted FOB cash costs tracking towards the upper end of guidance, which may signal margin pressure despite volume strength.

Stanmore noted positive quarterly operating cash flow, closing out the quarter with US$181 million cash and net debt of US$99 million.

"Prime hard coking coal prices were rangebound, as constrained supply from Australia interplayed against elevated Chinese steel exports continuing to pressure steel margins. Coal miners remain under pressure globally, with various commentators indicating that pricing is currently operating in a part of the cost curve that appears unsustainable for an extended period without meaningful disruption in supply/demand dynamics," noted CEO Marcelo Matos.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Stanmore Resources (SMR)

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Perseus reports June quarter production

[9:15 am] Perseus reported a robust June quarter production report, which includes numbers for FY25, FY26 guidance and a five-year outlook.

• Q4 gold production of 121.2koz vs. 115.1koz ests (5.3% beat)

• Q4 AISC of US$1,417/oz vs. US$1,528/oz ests (7.3% beat)

• Gold sales of 131.2koz, up 11.6% quarter-on-quarter

Perseus guided to FY26 gold production of 400-440koz (vs. Citi ests of 443koz) at an AISC of US$1,460-1,620/oz (vs. Citi ests US$1,505/oz). The company also reaffirmed its five-year outlook of 515-535koz per annum at an AISC of $1,400-1,500/oz.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Perseus Mining (PRU)

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Wisetech appoints Zubin Appoo as CEO

[9:06 am] Wisetech appointed Zubin Appoo as CEO, replacing interim CEO Andrew Cartledge.

Cartledge has served as interim CEO since October 2024 (and prior to that as CFO since September 2015), and will retire at the end of the year.

Appoo's prior experience includes:

• Wisetech Global (2004–2018): Head of Innovation & Technology, worked closely with co‑founder Richard White to develop CargoWise.

• InLoop / Flexischools / LanternPay (2018–2022): Served as Chief Technology Officer across multiple SaaS platforms focused on education and healthcare payments.

• Find a Carer (2023–2025): Appointed CEO of the care‑service marketplace following its acquisition by Uniting NSW.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Wisetech (WTC)

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Imdex acquires Earth Science Analytics

[9:04 am] Imdex has acquired an initial 80.5% controlling interest in Norway-based Earth Science Analytics for $26 million. The remaining 19.5% equity will be acquired after four years.

"This transaction will enable IMDEX to co-ordinate capabilities from existing offerings such as Datarock, aiSIRIS and Mineportal into ESA’s EarthNET platform, facilitating the creation of an open platform for all earth systems and delivering enhanced AI-enabled geoscience solutions for our customers," the company said in a statement.

The business is expected to contribute $4 million in revenue and breakeven EBITDA margin for FY26.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Imdex (IMD)

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Lottery Corp appoints Wayne Pickup as CEO

[8:56 am] The Lottery Corp will appoint Wayne Pickup as its incoming CEO, subject to necessary regulatory approvals. His prior experience includes:

• Allwyn North America (2018–2025): Led the US lottery operator, overseeing the Illinois Lottery and expansion efforts into new North American markets.

• Camelot Global Services (2017–2018): As CEO designate, drove the B2B arm’s international strategy, including lottery tenders and advisory services across Europe, Asia-Pacific, and North America.

• Lotto New Zealand (2003–2017): Rose from IT leadership roles to CEO.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Lottery Corp (TLC)

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US and China extend tariff truce

[8:52 am] US and China are expected to extend their tariff truce by another 90 days, according to the South China Morning Post, citing unnamed sources.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are scheduled to commence trade talks this week in Stockholm.

Meanwhile a high-level delegation from the US-China Business Council will visit China this week, led by executives from FedEx, Boeing and USCBC.

Source: SCMP

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US and EU reach broad tariff deal

[8:47 am] Here are the key highlights from the US-EU trade deal announced over the weekend:

• 15 % baseline tariff on most EU goods entering the US, down from the previously threatened 30% tariff

• Steel and aluminium tariffs will remain at 50%, but to be replaced by quota arrangements later

• Zero tariffs established on select sectors including aircraft, specific chemicals, semiconductor equipment, generic medicines and some agricultural goods

• EU to purchase up to US$750bn of US energy, including LNG and nuclear fuel over approximately three years

• EU to investment US$600bn in US businesses and infrastructure

• President Trump described it as a historic and "largest ever" agreement

• EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen defended the deal as the best possible outcome under strong US leverage

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US Q2 earnings season off to a flying start

[8:41 am] Corporate America is as resilient as ever, with Q2 earnings season showcasing solid earnings growth. Here are the key takeaways from the latest FactSet Earnings Insight report:

• The S&P 500’s blended EPS growth for Q2 is 6.4%, ahead of the 4.9% expected at the end of the quarter, suggesting stronger-than-expected earnings momentum.

• Revenue growth is tracking at 5.0%, pointing to broad-based top-line resilience across sectors.

• 80% of companies have beaten EPS estimates so far, outperforming the one-year average of 77% and the five-year average of 78%.

• 80% of companies have also exceeded revenue estimates, a sharp improvement from the one-year average of 62% and five-year average of 70%.

• The average EPS beat is 6.1%, which is slightly below the one-year average of 6.3% and materially below the five-year average of 9.1%.

• Sales surprises are coming in at 2.3% above expectations, stronger than both the one-year (0.9%) and five-year (2.1%) averages.

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Good morning!

[8:32 am] ASX 200 futures are down 5pts (-0.05%) but tariff developments over the weekend likely to place upward pressure on equity markets.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.