ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 13th April

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, April 13. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

ASX 200 lower, defensives shine, CBA edges higher

[1:55 pm] A fairly worse-than-feared kind of session, with the S&P/ASX 200 down 0.51%, slightly off session lows of -0.79%.

• Energy (+2.2%) the notable winner after a sharp spike in oil prices, with Brent currently up 9.7% to US$104.95 a barrel. Though energy stocks have struggled to hold onto session highs. Index rallied as much as 3.7% in early trade.

• Utilities (+0.13%), Telcos (+0.09%) and Staples (-0.13%) are outperforming on a relative basis

• Financials (-0.27%) slightly lower, as softness from Westpac, NAB and ANZ offset the slight uptick for CBA (+0.24%), which is currently on a three-day win streak

• Tech (-1.79%) is the worst performing sector, but bouncing off session lows of -3.60%

Breadth is rather weak, with 158 constituents (79%) trading lower. Overall, market's staying afloat thanks to some notable resilience from heavyweights like CBA (+0.24%) and BHP (+0.08%).

It looks like markets have traded broadly in-line with historical geopolitical shocks, with Deutsche Bank noting: "The playbook worked again. If the bottom last Monday continues to hold, the equity market would have again stuck close to the script around past geopolitical shocks, of sharp but surprisingly short-lived selloffs and V-shaped rebounds."

Source: Deutsche Bank

Despite resilient equity markets, the US military is set to begin a blockade of Iranian ports tonight. Goldman's latest peek at oil inventories flags a sharp decline in Asia and softness in India. "Global visible total oil inventories have declined by 187 million barrels since the start of the conflict, depleting 41% of 2025 visible builds," noted the analysts.

Source: Goldman Sachs

That's all for today. Let's see what madness the overnight session brings.

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Copper and growth catch a bid

[1:38 pm] The table below highlights the S&P/ASX 200 stocks with the largest intraday rallies. Pro Medicus is catching a bid after announcing a 5-year, $37 million contract renewal this morning, while A2 Milk (-12.3%) has clawed back some of its losses following an FY26 guidance downgrade. Other growth-y names like Hub24, Macquarie and Seek have also mustered up some intraday strength.

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What's being sold down today?

[1:34 pm] The table below highlights the S&P/ASX 200 stocks with the largest intraday declines, with a mix of coal, gold, rare earth, and fertiliser names leading the selloff. Nickel Industries stands out, given the company produces nickel via heap leaching and high-pressure acid leach, both processes reliant on sulphuric acid, which China just announced intentions to ban exports of from next month.

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Insignia shareholders overwhelmingly approve CC Capital scheme

[1:31 pm] The proposed $4.80 per share acquisition by CC Capital has cleared the shareholder vote by a wide margin.

• 98.65% of votes cast were in favour, with 89.96% of shareholders present and voting also supporting the resolution

• Court approval hearing scheduled for 16 April, with the scheme expected to become legally effective on 17 April following lodgement with ASIC

• If all conditions are met, shareholders on the register at 21 April will receive $4.80 cash per share, with implementation expected on 28 April

Company page: Insignia Financial (IFL)

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Gold stocks broadly lower

[12:14 pm] The All Ords Gold Index is trading 3.4% lower despite a solid intraday reversal for gold prices, which dipped as much as 2.2% in early trade to US$4,639, now down 0.5% to US$4,721.

It's interesting to see how a handful of gold miners like Ora Banda, Catalyst Metals, Northern Star and Meeka Metals are barely up or trading slightly lower over the last twelve months.

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Energy stocks broadly higher

[11:17 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index is up 2.80% but still ~3% away from its 7 April high. A broad uplift across oil, LNG, refiners and coal names today, though not much intraday price action – most stocks have been trading sideways since the open.

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Tech stocks on the backfoot

[11:14 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index is currently down 3.0%, and down almost 11% in the last three sessions. Most stocks have managed to settle off session lows (e.g. Life360 currently down 9.6% vs. session low of 13.2%).

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UBS survey shows Aussie consumers shifting spend away from discretionary

[10:51 am] UBS' 1Q26 survey of roughly 1,000 adult (conducted in early March) shows record spending intentions but heavily skewed towards cost-of-living categories.

• Overall spending intentions hit the highest level on record since the survey began in 2019, but momentum is concentrated in groceries, petrol and utilities. Petrol saw the largest uptick, reflecting the post-conflict oil price spike

• 80% of respondents now expect higher mortgage rates over the next 12 months, up from just 40% six months ago. Middle-income earners are most impacted, with decelerating expectations across savings, property purchases, home improvement and travel

• Low-income earners are a bright spot, with income expectations leaping higher on the back of government-directed real wage increases expected to feed through from mid-year

• UBS sees the data supporting a "stagflation light" scenario over the next six months, with inflation spiking and growth slowing but avoiding recession. The broker recently lowered its ASX 200 market target on expectations that EPS downgrades will dominate

• Survey reinforces UBS's underweight call on Consumer Discretionary, with their retail analyst cutting EPS estimates across the sector by 3% for FY26 and 9% for FY27

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China bans sulphuric acid exports from next month

[10:33 am] This was announced over the weekend, but removes a major source of global supply, with bullish implications for copper and acid-dependent mining operations.

• Ban covers all sulphuric acid exports except electronic-grade, effectively cutting off smelter and sulphur-based acid from global markets

• China exported 4.6m tonnes of sulphuric acid in 2025, with key destinations including Chile (32%), Indonesia (15%), Morocco (12%), Saudi Arabia (12%) and India (9%)

• Exports had already halved in the first two months of 2026 to 385,000 tonnes under an existing quota, and the outright ban from next month will further tighten supply

• Likely bullish for copper if the Middle East conflict continues disrupting global sulphur supply chains, as many copper mines rely on sulphuric acid for processing

There are plenty of sectors that are rather sensitive to sulphuric acid, including:

• In agriculture, it is the primary input for manufacturing phosphate fertilisers

• In copper mining, sulphuric acid is essential for heap leach, so it may impact production for players that rely on this process

• In uranium processing, sulphuric acid is used in the leaching stage to dissolve uranium from ore, both in conventional milling and in-situ recovery operations. Kazatomprom downgraded its uranium production guidance multiple times in 2024-25, some of which was due to sulphuric acid shortages

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Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:22 am] The leaderboard is topped with energy-related names including refiners, coal, LNG and oil producers.

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Top ASX 200 losers

[10:21 am] A2 Milk is trading sharply lower after downgrading its FY26 guidance, tech-related names like Life360 and Zip tanking after US software stocks hit fresh multi-year lows overnight and gold stocks also struggling amid a sharp pullback in bullion prices.

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ASX 200 lower, Energy stocks rally

[10:16 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is currently down 0.55% but already bouncing off session lows of -0.79%. Today represents another classic Iran-escalation day, with Energy stocks trading sharply higher, defensives like utilities and telcos outperforming (on a relative basis), and growth-y pockets of the market like Tech and Discretionary trading sharply lower.

ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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It’ll take a few seconds to answer, and over time it helps us shape the content and coverage that matters most to you.

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EML Payments downgrades FY26 EBITDA guidance

[10:07 am] EML has cut its FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance to $47-50 million from $58-60 million, down 18% at the midpoint. The stock is down 20.8% in early trade to 45 cents.

• Downgrade driven by delayed program implementations reducing FY26 revenue contribution, and weaker-than-expected trading in northern hemisphere businesses during Q3 due to softer consumer demand and macro uncertainty

• Weakness assumed to continue through Q4, with management flagging a need to strengthen commercial leadership in Europe

• Company has signed a further $2.5m in forecast annual revenue since interim results, and management stressed delays are timing-related rather than lost opportunities

Company page: EML Payments (EML)

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Commodity price update: Oil up ~10%, metals tank

[9:49 am] Oil prices continue to hold session highs, aluminium edges higher, while most other commodities slip 1-3%.

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St Barbara Q3 production report

[9:40 am] The Simberi Project in PNG delivered a strong rebound in production, though heavy rainfall constrained mining volumes and pushed some higher-grade ore into FY27.

• Gold production of 13,522 ounces in Q3, up 49% on Q2, driven by processed tonnes up 22% to 493kt and average feed grade up 15% to 1.09 g/t

• Gold sales of 11,974 ounces at an average price of A$6,892 per ounce

• March was the standout month with 5,973 ounces produced from 192kt processed at 1.14 g/t under new processing leadership

• Mining volumes fell below expectations due to rainfall at the 80th percentile in March and difficult conditions in the Pigibo pit, where backfill material is being worked through. Some higher-grade Pigibo benches now deferred to July/August 2026

• Q4 guidance of 14,000 to 17,000 ounces for the New Simberi Gold Project, with St Barbara's 40% attributable share at 5,600 to 6,800 ounces following completion of the Lingbao transaction. AISC guided at $4,100 to $4,500 per ounce

• Cash, bullion and listed investments of $170m at quarter end (down $17m on Q2), noting $389m from the Lingbao transaction was received on 2 April post quarter end (vs. current market cap of $877m)

In parallel, St Barbara announced it had secured the key environmental permit amendment needed to restart ore processing at its 15-Mile Hub in Canada, with production expected by end of calendar year 2026.

• Touquoy restart to process 3.0Mt of stockpiles grading 0.4 g/t, targeting 38koz of gold production over a 13-month period

• Operating cash flow estimated at C$118m at US$4,000/oz gold, with initial capital of approximately C$11.4m and AISC of US$1,598/oz

• Board has already approved C$2.9m in early commitments to accelerate refurbishment of the processing facility, with key management and technical personnel retained since operations ceased in October 2023

• Nova Scotia and Canada announced a new co-operation agreement for streamlined environmental assessments under a "one project, one review" framework, a positive signal for the broader permitting outlook

Company page: St Barbara (SBM)

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ASX management changes

[9:31 am] A few management changes for mostly small cap developers/explorers have been announced this morning, including:

• Tivan (TVN) appointed Robert Gerrard as COO effective 20 April, joining from Kellogg Brown & Root where he was Senior Director, Energy and Resources

• Nova Minerals (NVA) appointed Ashlie Thorburn as CFO effective 20 April, replacing Michael Melamed who is resigning on 30 April as part of the company's reorganisation

• Regal Partners (RPL) Chair Michael Cole will retire from the board following the AGM on 28 May, with Peter Yates (currently Chairman of AIA Australia) appointed as Chair-Elect effective immediately

• Canyon Resources (CAY) CEO Peter Secker to resign for personal reasons. Secker will remain in his role over coming months while a global search for a replacement is conducted

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Monash IVF receives revised bid from Genesis and Soul Patts consortium

[9:28 am] The consortium has lifted its non-binding indicative offer from $0.67 to $0.90 per share, a 34% premium to the prior proposal.

• Consortium stated $0.90 is the highest price it is prepared to offer absent a competing proposal for all or a material part of Monash IVF

  • On 24-Dec-25: An $0.80 per share offer was made, which Monash IVF rejected as it implied an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.7x, a significant discount to comparable IVF transactions in the Australian market

• Proposal valid until close of business Tuesday 21 April, creating a tight timeline for the board to respond

• Key conditions include four weeks of exclusive due diligence with no fiduciary exceptions, unanimous board recommendation, execution of transaction documentation and final internal approval from consortium members

• The consortium currently holds ~19.6% of Monash IVF's ordinary shares

Company page: Monash IVF (MVF)

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Pro Medicus renews Northwestern Medicine on improved terms

[9:24 am] Visage Imaging has signed a five-year, $37 million contract renewal with Northwestern Medicine, one of the leading academic health systems in the US.

• Transaction-based renewal with increased minimums and a higher fee per exam, reflecting volume growth since Northwestern standardised on the platform five years ago

• Northwestern Medicine operates top-ranked hospitals including Northwestern Memorial Hospital, with over 200 sites across Illinois

• CEO Dr Hupert noted nearly $80m in renewals contracted in the last month alone, reinforcing the company's strong client retention track record

Company page: Pro Medicus (PME)

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Brambles receives mixed ruling in shareholder class action

[9:21 am] The Federal Court delivered its judgment on a class action brought by shareholders who acquired Brambles shares between August 2016 and February 2017, with claims relating to misleading conduct and continuous disclosure obligations.

The Court upheld claims relating to underlying profit growth guidance for a roughly two-month window (mid-November 2016 to late January 2017) but dismissed the majority of claims, including all those relating to medium-term FY19 targets.

Brambles is reviewing the 1,200-page decision and assessing grounds for appeal, noting it has insurance arrangements in place but that total potential damages remain uncertain until quantification is complete.

Company page: Brambles (BXB)

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Black Cat transitions to 100% owned ore processing at Lakewood

[9:20 am] Black Cat has hit a key milestone, now processing entirely from its own Fingals and Majestic mines through the Lakewood facility, with throughput, recoveries and reagent usage meeting or exceeding expectations. A 183kt ore stockpile is already available, and the company plans to invest $20 million of operating cashflow over the next 12 months to expand Lakewood's processing capacity from 1.2Mtpa to 1.5Mtpa.

Even with expanded capacity, additional stockpiles are expected to build, providing optionality to sequence higher-grade ore as needed. The company also noted no diesel supply issues, with Lakewood grid-connected given its proximity to Kalgoorlie.

Company page: Black Cat Syndicate (BC8)

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A closer look at A2 Milk

[9:17 am] A2 stressed that the impacts are primarily timing-related and one-off in nature, with delayed cash receipts expected to flow into FY27. Supply chain transformation at a2 Pōkeno remains on track for production ramp-up in 1H27. However, its NZX-listed shares are trading ~14% lower (New Zealand market opens at 8:00 am AEST).

Here's some food for thought:

• A2 has traded relatively well year-to-date, up 2.5% but up around 7.7% since its 1H26 result on 16 February

• The 1H26 result had revenue up 18.8% to NZ$993.5m (3% beat), underlying NPAT up 19.6% to NZ$122.6m (40% beat) and interim dividend of 11.5 cps (15% beat)

• The company also upgraded its FY26 revenue guidance from low double-digit to mid double-digit growth and EBITDA margin expected at 15.5-16.0% (vs. Citi ests of 15.2% and 15.7% consensus).

• We're now seeing that optimism unwind, with EBITDA margins back at 14.0-14.5% (vs prior 15.5-16.0% and Morgan Stanley ests of 15.9%) and NPAT to be similar or down year-on-year (vs. ests of ~14.7% growth)

A2 Milk daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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a2 Milk downgrades FY26 guidance on supply chain disruptions

[9:08 am] Demand remains strong across all regions but temporary supply chain bottlenecks, largely tied to the Middle East conflict and production backlogs, are expected to materially impact China label IMF availability in April and May.

• Revenue growth guidance cut to low-to-mid double-digit % vs. prior mid double-digit guidance

• EBITDA margin lowered to 14.0-14.5% (previously 15.5%-16.0%), with additional one-off supply chain costs partially offset by savings initiatives

• NPAT now expected to be similar to or down on FY25 (previously guided up), with cash conversion dropping to approximately 50% (previously 80%)

• Demand across all categories and regions described as strong, with early stage new user recruitment improving and English label IMF growth supported by a2 Platinum and a2 Genesis

• Supply issues driven by a combination of freight disruptions from the Middle East conflict, low inventory from prior Synlait manufacturing challenges, extended customs clearance and new cereulide testing requirements

NZX-listed A2 Milk shares are currently down 13.9% in early trade.

Company page: The a2 Milk Company (A2M)

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Rio Tinto attracts over a dozen bidders for US boron assets

[9:04 am] Rio Tinto could fetch around $2 billion for its California boron operations as it streamlines under new CEO Simon Trott.

• WE Soda, Magris Resources and US Silica (Apollo-owned) among those interested, with binding offers expected by June

• Assets include a mine in the Mojave Desert, a refinery at the Port of Los Angeles and Owens Lake operations near the Sierra Nevada, supplying roughly a third of global refined boron demand

• Boron is used across fertilisers, heat-resistant glass, renewable energy materials and rare-earth magnets for motors and electronics, with production concentrated in the US and Turkey

Source: Bloomberg

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S&P 500 sector valuations

[9:01 am] The S&P 500 has seen its forward price-to-earnings multiple fall to 20x, but still sits within the 77th percentile of the last 30 years. Interestingly, Tech and Staples are both trading at 22x, while Financials are trading towards the cheap end of historical valuations.

Source: Goldman Sachs

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Software stocks hit new lows

[8:54 am] The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF fell 2.5% to hit a fresh multi-year low overnight. It's now down 7.2% in the last three sessions and down 28.8% year-to-date.

The overnight session marked the largest down day volume on record (49.4m or 131% above its 20-day average volumes) and second highest volume day on record (just behind the 50.5m on 24-Feb-26).

Not a good look for the local tech sector.

iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Any bullish talking points?

[8:47 am] US-Iran peace talks deteriorating, oil prices surging, software stocks tanking and headline inflation soaring ... is there anything positive to talk about? Here are the (few) positive data points and headlines floating around:

• CTA positioning supportive, with Goldman noting $30bn short in S&P 500 and model projecting $34bn of buying over the coming week, with all three momentum thresholds in positive territory

• AI demand remains insatiable. Amazon disclosed a $15bn AWS AI run rate and said its chips business would be $50bn run rate on a standalone basis. Meta launched Muse Spark, narrowing the gap with leading LLMs, and expanded its CoreWeave AI infrastructure deal to $21bn

• Walmart flagged a resilient consumer at JPMorgan's Retail Round Up, noting tax refunds have been a bigger tailwind than expected, though offset by oil moving above $100

• Delta reported stronger-than-expected demand with positive main cabin revenue growth for the first time since late 2020, guiding for better-than-expected Q2 revenue growth

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Oil prices open sharply higher

[8:45 am] Brent opened the session 7.1% higher to US$100.94 a barrel, currently up 8.3% to US$102.10.

LNG prices are also sharply higher, with the Dutch TTF benchmark up as much as 18% in early trade.

Brent crude daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Trump announces Hormuz blockade after Iran talks collapse

[8:42 am] The US will blockade the Strait of Hormuz "effective immediately" after 21 hours of direct talks with Iran in Islamabad ended without a deal, marking a sharp escalation in the six-week war.

• Trump ordered the US Navy to blockade all ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz

• Iran exported approximately 1.7Mbpd in March, making it the only Gulf state maintaining pre-war export levels while neighbours saw output collapse as the strait was closed off and Tehran struck regional energy infrastructure

• The UK distanced itself from the blockade, saying it would only deploy mine-hunting drones to Hormuz if a viable plan with allies emerges to reopen the strait, not to enforce Trump's closure

• Analysts warned the move risks deepening energy emergencies globally, with one adviser noting the administration has "backed themselves into a corner" between hurting Asian allies or allowing Iran to benefit from elevated prices

Source: Bloomberg

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US-Iran talks collapse without a deal, putting Ceasefire at risk

[8:40 am] Direct negotiations between the US and Iran ended abruptly in Islamabad after 21 hours without an agreement, raising the prospect of resumed hostilities and fresh disruption to global energy markets.

• Vice President JD Vance said Iran declined to commit to not pursuing a nuclear weapon, calling it a non-negotiable red line, while Iran's Foreign Ministry cited "excessive" US demands and left the door open for further rounds of diplomacy

• Iran insists on maintaining control of the waterway that carries roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG supplies. Two supertankers attempted to enter the Persian Gulf on Sunday before making a last-minute U-turn as talks fell apart

• The two-week ceasefire agreed last week is now in limbo, and Trump posted about a potential naval blockade of Iran's oil exports, signalling a possible escalation if diplomacy stalls

Source: Bloomberg

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US consumer sentiment hits record low

[8:38 am] The University of Michigan's preliminary April reading plunged to its lowest level on record as economic pessimism broadened across demographics.

• Headline sentiment fell to 47.6 vs. 52.0 ests and 53.3 prior, with declines broad-based across age, income and political affiliation

• Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.8% from 3.8%, the largest monthly increase since April 2025, while long-run expectations rose to 3.4%, the highest since November 2025

• Expectations for business conditions dropped roughly 20% and views on personal finances fell around 11%, with many consumers citing the Iran conflict as a key driver of pessimism

• Buying conditions for big-ticket items also worsened, reinforcing the deterioration in consumer willingness to spend

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Fed likely to hold, but cuts and hikes also on the table

[8:35 am] CME's Fedwatch tool is all over the place!

• The likelihood of a hold through to year-end is currently the base case, at 44.1% (down from 75.6% a week ago)

• The likelihood of a 25 bp cut by year-end has edged higher to 29.9% from 21.1% a day ago

• The likelihood of a 25 bp hike has jumped to 18.0%, from just 1.6% a day ago

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

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March US CPI cooler than feared despite energy surge

[8:33 am] Core inflation came in below expectations, offering some relief even as headline CPI surged on the back of the Iran-driven oil spike.

• Core CPI up 0.2% m/m vs. 0.3% ests, with annualised core at 2.6% vs. 2.7% ests and February's 2.5%

• Headline CPI up 0.9% m/m, in line with ests, with annualised headline of 3.3% vs. 3.4% ests and February's 2.4%

• Energy prices up 10.9% m/m with gasoline surging 21.2%, the largest monthly increase on record since tracking began in 1967. Analysts noted March data is likely too early to capture the full spillover from the Iran conflict

• Shelter remained benign with rents up 0.2% and OER up 0.3%, continuing their steady disinflationary trend

• Core goods rose just 0.1%, with used car prices falling 0.4% despite widespread expectations they would be an inflation driver. Appliances fell 1.3% after last month's 3.1% tariff-related spike

• Core services eased to 0.2% from 0.3%, though airline fares rose 2.7% on top of February's 1.4% gain

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US earnings season preview

[8:32 am] Wall Street braces for the weakest earnings growth since mid-2025 as oil shocks, AI disruption and private credit concerns converge.

• S&P 500 earnings expected to grow roughly 12% year-on-year in Q1, but stripping out tech, growth drops to around 3%, the weakest in two years

• Oil prices up over 40% since the Iran conflict began, with WTI at roughly $95 a barrel. Energy is the only S&P 500 sector that gained in March, with earnings expectations swinging from an 8.5% contraction to an 8% jump

• Barclays cut its 2026 European profit growth forecast to 6% from 8% on costlier oil, warning that $100 average oil could push earnings towards flat

• Tech stocks now trading at their lowest multiples in years after a prolonged rotation, with software names hit hardest by AI disruption fears. All 22 members of the S&P 500 Software subindex have declined in 2026

• Private credit redemption pressures and loan quality concerns (particularly exposures to software companies) have hammered financial shares, with several major players down more than 25% year to date

• Consumer resilience under close watch as tariffs, energy costs and AI-related job cuts weigh on sentiment. US inflation climbed in March by the most in nearly four years

Source: Bloomberg

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US futures open lower

[8:30 am] US futures opened sharply lower after Trump ordered a blockade for the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of US-Iran peace talks over the weekend.

Data as at 8:17 am AEST | Source: CNN

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Good morning!

[8:24 am] ASX 200 futures are up 70 pts (+0.77%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mostly lower, with the S&P 500 snapping a seven-day win streak (but still logging its best week since last November)

• US March CPI jumped 0.9% month-on-month and up 3.3% year-on-year, the highest annual print since May 2024, while consumer confidence hit a record low as inflation expectations surged and sentiment deteriorated sharply

• US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapsed, with Trump announcing an immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

• US futures and commodities opened broadly lower, while Brent surged ~8% in early trade to US$101.9 a barrel