ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 3rd July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, July 3. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

ASX 200 soars as Miners bounce, Healthcare extends gains

[2:00 pm] That's a wrap! One of the strongest sessions in a while eh? The ASX 200 is currently up 1.30%, trading around session highs. Only Energy and Utilities are trading lower, and 147 constituents (73%) are in positive territory.

S&P/ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)

The Materials sector was up around 1.2% in early trade, but caught an aggressive bid around 11 am as most commodity prices began to trend higher. Looking back over the past couple of months and it's been a rather restless sector, either soaring to fresh all-time highs or shedding 8-10% in just 4-5 sessions.

S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index daily chart (Source: TradingView)

The past month has brought a clear pivot into value and consumer-facing pockets of the market like healthcare, staples and discretionary, while everything else trades choppy at best.

S&P/ASX 200 sector performance over the past month (Source: TradingView)

That leaves healthcare in an awkward place, because most of the move comes down to multiple expansion rather than an earnings recovery, given the consecutive earnings downgrades from heavyweights CSL and Cochlear. A classic case of price moving ahead of fundamentals?

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers for the week

[1:33 pm] Neuren had a massive week off the back of Europe's CHMP adopted a positive opinion for its Daybue medication, while gold and wealth managers also traded broadly higher. Meanwhile, 4DMedical experienced a sharp pullback, NextDC fell on Meta's plans to sell AI computing power and once high-flying industrial names like Ventia are on the backfoot.

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China services growth beats forecasts in June despite easing from May

[12:50 pm] A better-than-expected print points to both manufacturing and services strengthening into quarter-end, though it may come too late to avert a soft second quarter.

• RatingDog China services PMI came in at 54.1, down from 54.4 in May but above the 53 median forecast and well clear of the 50 expansion threshold

• May's reading had been buoyed by holiday spending, with June supported by accelerating new export business, sustained employment growth and a return to selling-price expansion

• The result echoes the official survey, where services PMI hit a 10-month high in June, suggesting a broad-based recovery as Iran war disruptions fade

• Momentum may be arriving too late to prevent a second-quarter slowdown, after retail sales and investment slumped to levels unseen since the pandemic

• Services spending on travel and entertainment has held up better than goods retail, with the services production index up 4.4% year-on-year in May

Source: Bloomberg

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Japan swaps gas for coal as Hormuz disruption drives LNG prices higher

[12:49 pm] The world's second-largest LNG buyer cut gas-fired generation and leaned on coal last month as Middle East supply strains pushed spot prices sharply above pre-war levels.

• Japan produced about 17.3 terawatt hours of gas-fired electricity in June, down 16% year-on-year, while coal generation rose 4.6%, according to data from its nine largest utilities

• Asian LNG spot prices sit about 70% above pre-war levels, with the Hormuz disruption choking roughly a fifth of global LNG exports

• Japanese LNG imports for March to June fell about 7% versus a year earlier as utilities pulled back

• Higher Northeast Asian demand pushed Australian benchmark coal prices to their highest since 2023 in early June, though futures have since dropped around 15%

Source: Bloomberg

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Large cap miners catch a bid

[12:46 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index is currently up 2.6%, headlined by a sharp 7-10% rally for most gold miners.

The below table observes the ten largest miners by market cap.

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Broad gains for commodities

[12:44 pm] Commodity prices are trading broadly higher at noon, with many bouncing from oversold levels and further buoyed by the falling US dollar.

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Gold stocks bounce

[12:02 pm] The S&P/All Ords Gold index is currently up 7.4% and up for a second straight day, after experiencing a sharp 16% selloff between 17-30 June.

The average gold miner below is still down 5.2% in the past month and down 14.8% year-to-date.

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Talga jumps 26% as it begins first commercial anode sales to Nyobolt

[12:00 pm] The battery materials group has moved from qualification volumes to revenue, delivering its first Talnode-C shipment at the contracted commercial price.

• Shares currently up 26% on news of the first commercial Talnode-C delivery to Nyobolt under a binding offtake first struck in May 2025

• The initial shipment left Talga's EVA demonstration plant in Luleå, Sweden, with the balance of the 3,000-tonne offtake to come from a planned commercial-scale plant targeted to start construction in 2027, subject to a final investment decision

• Nyobolt, recently valued at US$1bn in a Series C raise, uses Talnode-C in ultra-fast-charging systems that charge in under five minutes, with partners including Scania and Symbotic

• Talga is in advanced offtake talks with battery makers across Europe, Japan and North America, momentum it expects to help finance and build its mine-to-anode Vittangi Anode Project

Company page: Talga Group (TLG)

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A massive comeback for healthcare stocks

[11:07 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare index is up 2.0% today, now up just over 20% since 3 June but still down 20% year-to-date.

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CSL now 30% off lows

[11:00 am] CSL has now rallied more than 30% off its 3 June low, recovering the entirety of its 11 May selloff (shares down 15.9% on the day).

The selloff was triggered by an earnings downgrade, which noted:

• FY26 revenue guided to ~$15.2bn vs. $15.79bn ests (4% miss)

• FY26 NPATA guided to ~$3.1bn vs. $3.34bn ests (7% miss)

• Expects to recognise ~$5bn of non-cash, pre-tax impairments across FY26 and FY27 in addition to those announced at the first half result, including CSL Vifor intangibles and under-utilised property, plant and equipment

CSL daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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ASX 200 higher as healthcare, retail and staples soar

[10:54 am] The ASX 200 is up 0.74% in early trade, now slightly positive for the year. We're seeing Healthcare, Discretionary and Staples trade sharply higher after a slight pullback in recent days. These three sectors have outperformed everything else over the past month, by a wide margin, with Healthcare (+20.0%), Staples (+13.5%) and Discretionary (+11.6%) far outpacing the next best sector, Industrials at 3.5%.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:16 am] Nine of the top ten gainers this morning are gold miners, while tech stocks open broadly lower. Fortescue is trading notably lower after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Sell (from Neutral) and cut its target price by 11% to $16.90, citing a tough near-term outlook for iron ore amid CMRG negotiations.

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Wall Street bets the rally grinds higher into the second half

[9:55 am] A diversified portfolio shrugged off Middle East war and wild rate swings, but much of the good news may already be priced in.

• A diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and commodities posted its strongest first-half return since 2021 despite war in the Middle East, oil doubling then collapsing, and sharp swings in rate expectations

• Semiconductors surged triple digits and the Nasdaq 100 gained nearly 20%, while the Magnificent Seven lost about 2% on a total-return basis as investors favoured AI builders over deployers

• Gold, silver and Bitcoin all finished the half lower despite the geopolitical turmoil

• Average year-end S&P 500 target at 7,716, implying only about 3% upside from 30 June after a roughly 9% gain this year

• Barclays estimates semiconductor and computer hardware names drove around 87% of the S&P 500's first-half gains, arguing the rally is far narrower than headline indices suggest

• BlackRock, Invesco and others see the AI trade broadening into semiconductors, memory, power grids, data centres and industrial infrastructure, while higher bond yields revive income strategies in shorter-duration and higher-quality credit

Source: Bloomberg

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Suncorp caps FY27 natural hazard costs, reaffirms FY26 guidance, CEO returns from leave

[9:24 am] The insurer held its maximum event retention steady in a costlier FY27 reinsurance program, while flagging FY26 hazard costs will run above allowance.

• Placed its main FY27 catastrophe program, holding maximum event retention at $350m for a first and second large event, covering Home, Motor and Commercial property across Australia and New Zealand for losses between $500M and $6.4bn

• Reaffirmed the FY27 natural hazard allowance at $1.80bn, with aggregate cover expected to cap hazard costs at $1.85bn in about 90% of scenarios

• Total FY27 reinsurance costs are expected to be above FY26, though the aggregate cover allows Suncorp to hold less excess capital above its target range midpoint

• Reaffirmed FY26 underlying insurance trading ratio at the upper end of the 10-12% range

• FY26 natural hazard experience is running $250m above the $1.77bn allowance, with GWP growth of ~2.7% and total investment income of $750-800m, down sharply from $1.23bn a year ago

• CEO Steve Johnston returns from medical leave effective 6 July, with acting CEO Jeremy Robson reverting to CFO and acting CFO Neil Wesley to his prior role

Company page: Suncorp Group (SUN)

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Catalyst Metals delivers record annual gold output at Plutonic, meeting FY26 guidance

[9:15 am]A doubling of quarterly production under Catalyst's ownership leaves the miner debt-free with over $420 million of liquidity as three new mines advance.

• Quarterly gold production of 31,812oz took FY26 output to 104koz, in line with guidance of 100-110koz

• Highest quarterly and annual production at Plutonic since 2013, sourced from four mines across the belt and roughly double the 15koz per quarter of three years ago

• Cash and bullion of $323m at 30 June, up $46m in the quarter and $85m over the half after exploration, capital and corporate spend

• Debt-free with an undrawn $100m facility, giving liquidity of $423m

• K2 transitioned from development to commercial production during the quarter, with recoveries potentially running ahead of forecast, and would be the third deposit developed on time and budget under Catalyst

• Development and approvals progressed at the next three mines (Trident underground, Old Highway and Cinnamon), part of a plan to lift annual production toward ~200koz and reserves toward ~2Moz

Company page: Catalyst Metals (CYL)

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Genesis Minerals meets FY26 gold guidance for a third straight year

[9:14 am] June-quarter cash build of $258 million funded a heavy round of growth spending, with the Byrnecut and Magnetic deals both bedding down ahead of a September strategy update.

• June quarter gold production of 70,767oz took FY26 output to 285,400oz, with production and AISC both within guidance of 260-290koz at $2,500-2,700/oz

• Underlying cash build of $258m, up from $253m in the March quarter, before roughly $78m on growth and exploration (including ~$36m to fast-track Tower Hill)

• Cash and equivalents of $520m at 30 June, down from $600m, after about $352m of outflows for acquisitions, stamp duty, growth, exploration and tax

• Open pit mining has commenced at Tower Hill after pit dewatering, with long-lead items for a new 3.5-4.0mtpa mill and a larger-than-planned GMS fleet ordered ahead of schedule

• FY27 exploration budget lifted sharply to $80-90m from $40-50m, with drilling underway on the Chatterbox Trend following completion of the $639m Magnetic Resources acquisition

Company page: Genesis Minerals (GMD)

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Boss Energy meets revised FY26 uranium guidance and brings forward Honeymoon feasibility study

[9:11 am] The uranium producer will skip a planned interim scoping study and go straight to a full feasibility outcome, now due a month earlier than flagged.

• Produced 1.41M lbs uranium drummed in FY26, meeting revised guidance as the Honeymoon plant and wellfields continue to ramp up

• New Feasibility Study and updated life-of-mine plan, plus an updated JORC resource estimate for Honeymoon, now targeted for end-August 2026, ahead of the prior end-September target

• Will proceed directly to feasibility rather than producing the previously contemplated interim scoping study

• Any incremental capital for the revised life-of-mine plan is intended to be funded organically

Company page: Boss Energy (BOE)

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Vault Minerals hits FY26 gold guidance and kicks off Sugar Zone underground development

[9:10 am] A strong finish to the year saw production jump 14% quarter-on-quarter, with the balance sheet now debt-free and fully unhedged after clearing all remaining hedges.

• Q4 gold production of 89,338oz lifted FY26 output to 336,540oz, meeting full-year guidance, with FY26 gold sales of 334,901oz

• Production rose 14% quarter-on-quarter, with KoTH processing Stage 1 commissioned on schedule and Stage 2 now 71% complete, tracking ahead of schedule for September 2026 and set to lift capacity 50%

• Underground development at Sugar Zone recommenced on 1 July, ramping up through FY27 to position the plant for a planned restart in Q1 FY28

• Generated $219m in underlying free cash flow in the quarter and returned $74.3m to shareholders via its maiden dividend and buyback

• Finished FY26 with cash and bullion of $842m, no debt and fully unhedged after a $31.2m settlement of all remaining hedge positions

Company page: Vault Minerals (VAU)

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Alpha HPA pitches itself as an under-the-radar AI pick-and-shovel play

[9:07 am] The high-purity alumina maker laid out how its solvent-extraction technology feeds semiconductor, battery and pharma supply chains at margins insulated from commodity cycles.

Here are some of the key highlights from its investor meeting:

• On the business model: "These are performance materials that are priced on their performance", with an average sales price of about $29 to $30 a kilogram against a cash cost of around $7, versus $12 to $15 for established competitors Sumitomo Chemical and Nippon Light Metal

• On the technology moat: Alpha says it is the only company globally to have deployed solvent extraction for aluminium purification, protecting the chemical IP as a trade secret "like how Coca-Cola has protected the recipe for Coke"

• On the AI thermal filler opportunity: HPA lifts thermal conductivity two to three times over incumbent silica, critical as GPU power draw climbs from ~300 watts toward over 1,000 watts, and Alpha can hit the sub-1 part per billion uranium and thorium "low alpha" spec its nearest Japanese competitor cannot reach

• On demand: one Japanese customer that failed to develop the low-alpha capability in-house has come to Alpha and tripled its supply commitment to 360 tonnes a year, while its $48/kg CMP nano-alumina product offers a 50% higher removal rate

• On the build-out: stage one is operational and qualifying material into the TSMC supply chain via a Japanese customer, while stage two is roughly $260m into a $700m, 10,000-tonne facility now 118% subscribed on LOIs

• On the financials: management framed stage two as a roughly $300m EBITDA business ramping into 2027 and 2028, arguing the current ~$1bn market cap implies just 3 to 4x future EBITDA, with the company fully funded after a $225m raise and sitting on over $200m cash

Company page: Alpha HPA (A4N)

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BMC Minerals holder L1 Capital discloses 12.05% stake

[9:02 am] L1's substantial holding emerges as founding shareholder BMC UK offloads a chunk of the recently listed silver-zinc developer via a block trade.

• BMC UK cut its stake to 53.93% from 64.68% after an underwritten block trade to sell 29.5M CDIs at $2.85 each, which completed on 2-Jul

• L1 Capital disclosed a 12.05% substantial holding, larger than the 10.75 percentage points BMC UK sold down, suggesting it picked up additional stock from other sources

• BMC listed on the ASX in December 2025 via an oversubscribed $100m IPO priced at $2.00, closing its debut 25% higher and giving it a market cap of about $550m

BMC's sole asset is the 100%-owned Kudz Ze Kayah (KZK) polymetallic project in Canada's Yukon, a 372 sq km land package hosting the ABM and Kona deposits with a mix of silver, zinc, copper, gold and lead.

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Gold bounces as Fed rate hike bets ease

[8:58 am] A sizeable 2.3% bounce for gold overnight, now back above US$4,100 despite falling as low as US$3,942 just three days ago.

However, prices are still down 4.7% year-to-date and down 26% from the 30-Jan record high of US$5,598.

Gold price chart (Source: TradingView)

Meanwhile, the rate-sensitive US 2-year yield slipped 4 bps to 4.13% overnight.

US 2-year yield chart (Source: TradingView)

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Inflation paths diverge as South Korea hits 2-1/2-year high while Switzerland cools

[8:52 am] Middle East oil pressures and a weak won are pushing Korean prices up toward a likely hike, even as Switzerland's benign energy shock lets inflation ease for the first time in eight months.

• South Korean CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year in June, the biggest jump since December 2023, up from 3.1% in May and matching consensus, with a 0.1% monthly gain

• The pickup was driven by high global oil prices and a weaker won lifting imported raw material costs, cementing expectations for a Bank of Korea hike as soon as its July 16 meeting

• The Bank of Korea held at 2.50% on May 28 with two of seven members dissenting for a hike, and around two-thirds of economists see at least one hike by end-September

• Swiss inflation slowed to 0.5% year-on-year in June from 0.6%, its first easing in eight months and in line with consensus, with core steady at 0.3%

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ECB splinters on next rate move as oil plunge cools inflation, while BOE's Bailey rules out cuts

[8:51 am] Falling energy prices have opened a divide over whether more tightening is needed, with the debate likely to come to a head in September rather than July.

• ECB officials are split just three weeks after unanimously hiking in response to the Iran war, with Lane warning inflation forces are still unfolding while others doubt major second-round effects will materialise

• Euro-area inflation eased to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, below the 3% consensus, with core and services measures also dipping and Bloomberg Economics reckoning it has peaked

• Hawks like Estonia's Kaasik call another hike "reasonable" while doves including Greece's Stournaras, Finland's Rehn and Belgium's Wunsch see little or no case to move again

• Little action is expected at July's meeting, with September the likelier flashpoint once wage data arrives

• BOE's Bailey said rate cuts are "off the table at the moment" despite a softening economy and labour market, citing a delayed inflation hit from the UK energy price cap, which rose 13% and resets only quarterly

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Global central bankers warm to new Fed chief Warsh at Sintra

[8:50 am] Policymakers came away reassured the Fed will stay engaged internationally, easing fears a Trump appointee might retreat from global coordination or bend to White House pressure.

• Warsh held private meetings with counterparts over three days, including a lengthy lunch with ECB President Lagarde, in his first ECB forum appearance as chair

• Officials had privately worried a Trump-appointed chair could prove more susceptible to White House pressure on rates or less committed to international coordination

• Participants saw common ground on policy communication, with Warsh's scepticism towards forward guidance dovetailing with a broader "back to basics" theme

Source: Reuters

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Oil sinks toward four-month lows as Gulf supply floods back and Hormuz talks drag on

[8:46 am] Crude has erased its entire wartime rally as Saudi, UAE and Iranian barrels return to market, even as Iran renews threats over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Brent has slumped to US$68.48 a barrel from peaks of almost US$120 in March

• Saudi Aramco resumed loadings from Ras Tanura after a near four-month halt, with at least five supertankers carrying 10 million barrels having exited Hormuz, and switched to spot pricing for Asian buyers in a sign of intensifying competition

• UAE exports rebounded around 30% last month to more than 3.9 million barrels a day, near record highs, using a Hormuz-bypassing pipeline and "dark" transits with transponders switched off

• More than 20 million barrels of Iranian crude are idling in Asian waters, up nearly 18% week-on-week, with over 90% of cargoes lacking a clear destination as Chinese and Indian buyers stay away ahead of a mid-August deadline

• US-Iran talks in Doha produced "positive progress" but did not touch the nuclear issue, with the next round set for after Khamenei's July 9 funeral

• Iran warned tankers to use its approved Hormuz routes or face a "forceful response", keeping the waterway unstable even as weekly transits recovered to 258 ships from 138

• Goldman Sachs expects the global market to swing back into a glut as the conflict fades and Hormuz traffic recovers, with regional flows already back to about 75% of pre-war levels

Brent crude price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Tesla slumps 7% despite Q2 deliveries smashing expectations

[8:41 am] The stock logged its worst day in almost a year even as record quarterly volumes topped consensus by a wide margin.

• Q2 deliveries of 480,126 vs 406,600 ests (18% beat), up 25% year-on-year and 34% on the first quarter

• Q2 production of 451,758 vehicles

• Model 3 and Model Y made up 467,762 units, or 97% of deliveries

• Shares fell 7.49%, the third straight decline on a quarterly delivery report as Tesla works to recover from consecutive annual sales falls

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Apple lobbies Washington to buy blacklisted Chinese memory chips amid shortage

[8:40 am] The iPhone maker is seeking to add two Pentagon-blacklisted suppliers to ease a memory squeeze that has already forced price hikes across its range.

• Apple is in talks to buy memory from ChangXin Memory Technologies and Yangtze Memory Technologies for devices sold in China, though nothing is final

• CEO Tim Cook has appealed to Trump administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, to soften the political fallout

• Both CXMT and YMTC sit on the Pentagon's 1260H list of firms deemed to support China's military, and a deal risks blowback from national security hawks despite needing no formal US approval

• A deal would expand Apple's memory roster to five, alongside Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, all of which are struggling to keep pace with AI-driven demand

• Apple last week raised prices on all Macs, iPads, home devices and Vision Pro to offset the shortage, blaming the rapid expansion of AI

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Apple readies new iPad Pro and redesigned entry MacBook Pro for 2027

[8:40 am] Internal upgrades and a fresh laptop design headline a packed hardware year built around the iPhone's 20th anniversary.

• Four new iPad Pro models are in testing for spring 2027, keeping the 11-inch and 13-inch sizes with faster chips and a previously tested vapor chamber cooling system

• A revamped entry-level 14-inch MacBook Pro (code-named K104) is due as early as 1H 2027, adopting the new design lined up for higher-end touchscreen Macs

• Apple is targeting its first M7 processor as early as 1H 2027, a fast transition from the coming M6 as it optimises silicon for AI workloads

• Memory and silicon shortages are disrupting supply chains and could force road map changes

• Other 1H 2027 launches include a second-generation iPhone Air and an entry-level iPhone 18, plus a foldable iPhone, first smart glasses and new smart home devices

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June payrolls miss, boosting Fed hold bets

[8:38 am] Softer hiring and downward revisions drove a dovish shift in rate expectations, though wage growth held firm and unemployment ticked lower.

• June nonfarm payrolls of 57K vs 110K ests, the softest headline print since Feb-26, with May revised down to 129K from 172K and April to 148K from 179K

• Unemployment rate fell to 4.2% vs 4.3% ests and May's 4.3%, though participation slipped to 61.5% from 61.8%

• Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m in line with consensus, with the annualised pace at 3.5% versus May's 3.4%

• Healthcare and social assistance (+47K) and professional and business services (+36K) led gains, while leisure and hospitality shed 61K and government hiring was flat (+8K)

• CME FedWatch now implies an 83% chance of a July hold and 17% chance of a hike, versus 68% and 32% before the release

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US stocks mixed as chip rout drags Nasdaq lower, dollar slides on jobs miss

[8:38 am] Value and defensives surged while semiconductors extended a sharp two-session flush, with a soft payrolls print paring bets on near-term Fed tightening.

• Dow rose 1.1% to a record high, the S&P 500 finished flat and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.6% as tech weakness weighed

• Healthcare, Staples, Utilities and Materials all gained more than 2%, and the equal-weight S&P 500 outperformed the cap-weighted index by 70 bps to set a fresh record

• SOXX semiconductor index fell 11.6% over two sessions, led by Applied Materials (-7.3%), Micron (-5.4%), Intel (-5.2%), AMD (-4.2%) and Nvidia (-1.3%)

• 2-year Treasury yield fell 4 bps to 4.13% after the jobs miss, off recent highs of 4.23%

• US dollar slid against every developed-market currency, with a yen bounce the standout FX move, while gold surged back above US$4,100 from an eight-month low

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Good morning!

[8:22 am] ASX 200 futures are up 52 pts (+0.59%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Wall Street split ahead of the July 4 market holiday, the Dow closed at a record high while the Nasdaq slid on a semiconductor rout

• US June payrolls rose just 57,000 versus about 115,000 expected and unemployment fell to 4.2%, trimming Fed rate-hike bets

• Tesla Q2 deliveries beat with 480,126 vehicles up 25%, but shares fell about 7.5% in a sell-the-news move

• Gold prices surged on easing Fed hike expectations, now back above US$4,100 vs. lows of US$3,944 three days ago