ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 2nd October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, October 2. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Macquarie upgrades Transurban to Outperform

[9:16 am] Macquarie has upgraded Transurban to Outperform from Neutral, with a target of $14 from $13.50, as bond rates potentially ease and the $4.5 billion WestConnex and NorthWestern Roads deal puts spare balance sheet capacity to work.

• 10.5% of WestConnex for $2.5bn and 25% of NorthWestern Roads Group for $2bn, with the $4.5bn total in line with the broker's valuation of about $4.6bn

• Initial yield of about 4.2%, rising to about 5.5% with NorthWestern Roads regearing, though the deal is not cashflow accretive until year three

• $3bn of additional debt capacity comes with the deal, which also extends concession life

• I-95 project contractor procurement is starting at an estimated $4.5-5.5bn, or about $6bn including capitalised interest, with first revenues not expected until CY35

• US pipeline would reach about $10bn if the I-495S project succeeds, committing most of Transurban's FY31-FY35 balance sheet capacity

• FY27 EPS forecasts up 1.8%, with FY28 up 1.5% and FY29 down 0.6% on updated financing and balance sheet assumptions

Company page: Transurban (TCL)

Macquarie lifts Ampol earnings on refining margins after Evie deal

[9:15 am] Macquarie has upgraded its CY26 earnings forecasts for Ampol on stronger refining margins, retaining an Outperform rating and $50 target after the $225 million Evie Networks acquisition.

• Evie Networks acquisition for $225m is pending ACCC clearance and will be funded from available cash and debt

• $30m EBITDA aspiration for Evie could be achieved if charging bay utilisation lifts to around 15% from below 10%, alongside $10m of synergies, the broker estimates

• Lytton refiner margin forecast lifted to US$27.67/bbl for 2H26 vs US$24.7/bbl ests

• Lytton EBIT now forecast at $423m in 2H26

• 5-6MMbbl/d of refining capacity remains offline across Russia and the Middle East, with about 45% of Russia's refining system offline

• CY26 EPS forecasts up 7%, with CY27 down 1.2% and CY28 up 0.3% on inclusion of the Evie acquisition

Company page: Ampol (ALD)

Elixir Energy's exclusivity with Beach lapses without binding deal

[9:09 am] Elixir Energy's exclusivity period with Beach Energy over a proposed farm-in to its Taroom Trough portfolio has expired, freeing the company to engage with other interested parties.

• Exclusivity expired at close of business on 1 October, before the parties agreed final binding terms under the process deed signed on 21 August

• Beach remains in discussions on its proposed strategic farm-in, with the expiry not terminating talks or preventing a deal

• Unsolicited interest from additional third parties was received during the exclusivity period and can now be fully considered

• All strategic alternatives involving the company and/or its Taroom Trough portfolio will be considered by the board, with no assurance of a binding transaction

• Elixir is the largest acreage holder in the Taroom Trough in Queensland's Bowen Basin, appraising about 3.5 TCF of 2C contingent gas resources bordering Shell's main area of investment

Company page: Elixir Energy (EXR)

Praemium CEO Anthony Wamsteker resigns with immediate effect

[9:09 am] Praemium CEO Anthony Wamsteker has resigned as chief executive and director with immediate effect, with chief commercial officer Denis Orrock stepping in as Acting CEO.

• Wamsteker will serve a three-month notice period and remain available to assist Orrock during the transition

• Denis Orrock joined Praemium in 2022 and has more than 30 years of experience in financial services and wealth management platforms

• Permanent CEO search will be run with an external search firm, with both internal and external candidates to be considered

• New technology platform will be progressively rolled out to clients over the next year and is expected to deliver efficiency gains and cost base reductions, according to chairman Matthew Quinn

Company page: Praemium (PPS)

Sigma Lithium halts production awaiting Brazil appeals ruling

[9:08 am] Sigma Lithium has suspended all mining and industrial production in Brazil while it awaits an appeals court ruling on an injunction targeting its environmental licences.

• Production suspended on 30 September after Minas Gerais environmental authority FEAM issued a notice and the Federal Court of Appeals took 15 days to review Sigma's emergency motion

• FY27 guidance of 330,000t of lithium oxide concentrate maintained

• 12-month guidance of 240,000t pushed back by three months

• Tailings operations continue, with sales of high-purity lithium fines expected to self-fund the company during the suspension

• Distance dispute at the centre of the NGO lawsuit, with Sigma putting the Quilombola community 8 to 9km from its Xuxa pits and about 11km from Barreiro, against 2.7km claimed

• Brazil's election second round on 25 October could delay the appeals decision, according to Sigma, which will seek a further appeal in the superior federal courts if the ruling goes against it

Company page: Sigma Lithium (SAU)

Dynamic Metals sells Lady Jane gold project to First Au

[9:06 am] Dynamic Metals has agreed to sell its Lady Jane gold project in WA's Ora Banda district to First Au for $650,000 in cash and deferred consideration, while keeping a royalty over the asset.

• $150,000 cash payable upfront, with $50,000 due within five business days of execution and $100,000 at completion

• $500,000 deferred consideration due around the first anniversary of completion, as cash or First Au shares at Dynamic's election

• 1.5% gross revenue royalty retained over all minerals extracted and sold from the project

• Minimum $250,000 drilling spend committed by First Au within 24 months of completion, excluding geophysics, geochemistry, desktop studies and overheads

• Re-acquisition right allows Dynamic to buy back the project for $100,000 if First Au misses the drilling commitment

Dynamic Metals trades at a market cap of $31.5 million.

Company page: Dynamic Metals (DYM)

US factory prices surge as activity expands

[9:01 am] US manufacturing growth picked up in September, but price pressures intensified.

• S&P Global manufacturing PMI up to 55.9 from 53.9 in August, the highest since May 2022, though below the 57 flash reading

• ISM manufacturing index of 54.5 vs 54.9 ests, down 0.1 points from August

• ISM prices paid up 6.8 points to 77.9 vs 72 ests

• Survey respondents cited tariffs and escalating trade tensions with Canada as headwinds

Source: S&P Global

Global commodity price pressures rise for first time in five months

[9:00 am] Global commodity price inflation accelerated in September on higher energy and transport costs linked to the Middle East, according to S&P Global.

• All Items Price Pressures Index up to 2.0 from 1.9, the first rise in five months but well below April's 4.6 peak

  • A reading of 2.0 means reports of higher prices were twice the long-run survey average

• Transport cost reports ran at 6.3 times the long-run average

• Energy price pressures hit 4.5 times the average, the highest since May

• Semiconductors recorded the most widespread price rises at 13.1 times the average, though this eased from August's four-year peak

• Electrical items shortages were the most widespread since February 2023, with copper, oil, semiconductors and transport also in short supply

Source: S&P Global

No date set for US-China tariff cuts, says Greer

[8:59 am] US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said there is no timeline for cutting tariffs on the $60 billion of goods recommended by the US-China Board of Trade.

• Public comment and a legal determination are required before the recommendations are adopted, reducing the chance of relief before the holiday season

• $30bn of non-sensitive goods from each country is covered by the plan

• US exports under the arrangement include meat and dairy, while Chinese imports include small appliances, toys and holiday decorations

• Future tariff measures could draw on the board, including any China remedies from the USTR's excess capacity probe

Source: Bloomberg

Anthropic targets mid-November IPO

[8:54 am] Anthropic is preparing to go public as soon as mid-November, with prospective investors valuing it at up to $2tn, according to Bloomberg.

• Investor day on 14 October will be followed by formal marketing as soon as the week of 9 November, ahead of a debut before Thanksgiving on 26 November

• Valuation of $1.8tn to $2tn is seen as fair by prospective investors, with Anthropic expecting to match or beat SpaceX's record IPO size

• 2025 revenue up almost twelve-fold to about $4.6bn from $386m

• 2025 net loss of almost $42bn, up from $8.3bn, with more than $34bn tied to changes in the fair value of liabilities

• Broadcom is lending Anthropic $42bn, with Anthropic tipped to become the chip designer's largest compute customer by next year, according to Reuters

• OpenAI has postponed its own IPO, while 2026 listings excluding SpaceX and SK Hynix have returned an average loss of 4%

Source: Bloomberg

Alphabet gains premarket on Gemini 4 Argon launch

[8:53 am] Alphabet shares rallied 2.7% in early trade but finished 1.7% lower after launching Gemini 4 Argon, its most advanced AI model, with Jefferies flagging pricing well below Anthropic's.

• Pricing of $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens compares with $4 and $20 for Claude Opus 5.5 and $10 and $50 for Claude Fable 5.1

• DeepSWE v1.1 score of 77.9% is a record on the coding benchmark, though Argon trails leading rivals on the tougher FrontierSWE v2 test

• CWE-bench v1 score of 68% tied Grok 4.7, with initial access limited to trusted cybersecurity researchers

• Prompt injection success rate of 0.7% vs 1% for Claude Opus 5.5 and Fable 5.1

• Output limit lifted to 1m tokens from 64,000, compared with 128,000 for Anthropic's models

Source: Yahoo Finance

US 10-year yield hits highest since 2002 before reversing

[8:50 am] Treasury yields hit fresh multi-decade highs early in the session before reversing, with the sharpest declines at the short end of the curve.

• 10-year yield rose as much as 5 bps to 5.344% intraday, its highest since April 2002, but finished the session 4 bps lower to 5.24%

• 2-year yield down 10 bps to 4.79% as traders priced out the chance of a Fed hike this month

• 30-year yield reached levels not seen in 24 years earlier in the session, finished fractionally lower at 5.61%

• Macquarie's Thierry Wizman links higher yields to the Iran war's impact on both inflation and deficits, with Pentagon figures putting US war spending at $43.6bn or more

• TD Securities says a fiscal crisis is not imminent, with the 5.9-year average maturity of US debt meaning higher rates feed into borrowing costs gradually

Source: Yahoo Finance

China suspends fuel exports

[8:46 am] Chinese refiners have halted oil product exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau until further notice from Beijing, according to Reuters.

• PetroChina cancelled a handful of gasoline and jet fuel shipments planned for October, most of which were committed in the past two weeks

• Zhejiang Petrochemical skipped scheduling any oil product shipments during the holiday week

• No export approval was given before China's week-long holiday began on Thursday, and it is unclear whether exports resume after it ends on 7 October

• Asian diesel margins rebounded to about $75 a barrel, the highest in a week

• Global fuel markets are already grappling with lost supply from the Middle East and Russia, with the suspension potentially pushing prices in some countries to new highs

Source: Reuters

Oil jumps as US sends third carrier towards Middle East

[8:45 am] Oil rallied after reports the US is sending a third aircraft carrier towards the Middle East, adding to supply concerns after China halted fuel exports.

• USS Theodore Roosevelt left San Diego on Sunday and would return the US to three carrier strike groups in the region, though no final destination has been set

• 10,000 additional sailors and Marines could also be deployed, with forces expected to arrive by the end of November

• Trump told Time magazine that ramped-up bombing of Iran after the November midterms was "possible"

• Nuclear inspectors could return to bombed facilities in exchange for sanctions relief, Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi suggested in private talks

• Iran loaded no crude onto tankers in September, down from about 250,000 barrels per day in August, under the US naval blockade

• Iranian inflation is running at almost 90% year-on-year, with the rial down 30% against the US dollar

• Three tankers came under attack this week while trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz, even as Middle East crude flows recovered to prewar levels

Fed's Jefferson says next rate move may take more time

[8:43 am] Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson said inflation remains too high but stopped short of endorsing another rate hike.

• Jefferson said yields have risen across the curve since September's meeting and policymakers "will need to come to our own judgment, which may take more time"

• Energy prices, the AI buildout and trade policy were the shocks Jefferson cited as buffeting the economy

• New York Fed's John Williams said earlier in the week there is no urgency to follow September's quarter-point hike with another move

• Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari said AI data centre investment is likely pushing the neutral rate higher temporarily

• US AI investment is expected to reach about $581bn this year, around 10% of private fixed investment

Nike slumps 8.5% after hours on FY27 guidance miss

[8:41 am] Nike shares fell 8.5% after hours to their lowest since September 2013 after FY27 earnings guidance came in well short of ests.

• Revenue down 4% to $11.21bn vs $11.32bn ests (1% miss)

  • Nike Direct down 8% to $4.1bn vs $4.4bn ests (7% miss)

  • Greater China down 22% to $1.18bn vs $1.3bn ests (9% miss)

  • Converse down 28% to $263m vs $296m ests (11% miss)

• Gross margin of 42.8% vs 42.2% ests (60bp beat), helped by lower warehousing and logistics costs

• EPS down 2% to $0.48 vs $0.43 ests (12% beat)

• FY27 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.15 to $1.35 vs $1.65 ests (24% miss), excluding about $0.15 of Pace restructuring costs

• FY27 revenue is expected to decline by a high single digit percentage

• Management said "We have more work to do in Nike Sportswear, Jordan Brand and Greater China, and we're taking deliberate actions to strengthen those businesses the right way for the long-term"

Wall St claws back early losses as yields ease

[8:40 am] US stocks finished the first session of October modestly higher after recovering from morning losses as Treasury yields pulled back from multidecade highs.

• S&P 500 up 0.19% to 7,666.45, while the Nasdaq rose 0.04% to 26,871.60 and the Dow added 20 points to 50,926.56

• Russell 2000 up 0.35% after falling more than 5% in September and about 7.5% over the third quarter

• KBW Nasdaq Bank Index fell as much as 2.4% intraday before paring losses, and sits more than 13% below its mid-August peak

• Accenture up about 18% at midday after fiscal fourth quarter revenue of $18.68bn topped its own guidance range of $17.8bn to $18.4bn

• FICO up 8% after FHFA director Bill Pulte said he would ensure its new FICO Direct mortgage program is approved

Good morning!

[8:24 am] ASX 200 futures are up 45 pts (+0.52%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Wall Street shook off a bond scare, with the S&P 500 clawing back a (0.45%) decline to close slightly higher, after Treasury yields eased from their highest levels in more than two decades

  • S&P 500 (+0.19%), Nasdaq (+0.04%), Dow (+0.04%) and Russell 2000 (+0.35%)

• Oil pushed back above $100 after a report the US is sending a third carrier strike group to the Middle East and Chinese refiners halted fuel exports

• AI dealmaking stayed front and centre, with Anthropic reportedly targeting a mid-November IPO and its prospectus revealing a $42bn Broadcom financing line