ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 28th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, August 28. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we've got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

Hormuz diplomacy gathers pace but oil stays hostage to Washington

[9:00 am] Regional mediators intensified efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz this week, though the US has ruled out returning to the collapsed June memorandum, leaving crude caught between competing signals.

• A WSJ report noted that Washington has told mediators it has no interest in reviving the June MoU, reversing three days of declines. Both contracts were still down more than 5% for the week

• Iran and Oman have agreed a temporary joint shipping corridor through the strait, with two-way lanes about seven nautical miles wide, but Tehran says implementation is conditional on the US lifting the naval blockade, releasing frozen funds, imposing no new sanctions and halting military escalation. Iran's security chief says a formal list of conditions is being drawn up

• Physical flows remain close to nil despite Trump's claims the strait is open. Kpler data showed five vessels crossed on Wednesday, down from seven, and CENTCOM has now redirected 75 ships since the blockade resumed on 14 July. A tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the strait this week

• Operation Economic Outcast has so far been more threat than action, with no major Chinese banks designated and Beijing publicly refusing to enforce the measures. Trump declined to confirm whether Chinese institutions would be targeted, which caps the near-term supply risk premium but leaves it live

Fed hawks turn up the volume at Jackson Hole

[8:55 am] Three regional Fed presidents used the opening of the Jackson Hole symposium to warn that US inflation is proving stubborn, with one openly calling for a hike.

• Cleveland's Beth Hammack was the most hawkish, saying now is the time to act, having already dissented in favour of a quarter-point rise at the July meeting. She sees inflation ending 2026 around 3% and only reaching the mid-2s at best by end-2027

• Kansas City's Jeffrey Schmid questioned whether the current 3.50-3.75% policy rate is restricting anything at all, though he wants more clarity on the demand side before committing to a September move

• Chicago's Austan Goolsbee struck a more balanced tone, calling the three-month inflation trend not terrible and leaving the door open to cuts if inflation converges on 2%, while flagging Iran-driven energy prices and tariff volatility as pressures on households

• The July FOMC vote was 9-3 to hold, and the minutes showed hawkish sentiment extended beyond the three dissenters, with some arguing an earlier hike could avoid a sharper tightening cycle later

• July PCE came in at 3.7% year-on-year with core at 3.3%, more than five years above the 2% target, and Hammack's concern is that an inflationary mindset becomes embedded in household and business behaviour

• Futures markets are pricing against a September hike but assign strong odds to one by year end

US software stocks back at breakeven for the year

[8:52 am] The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF rallied 7.7% overnight, largely thanks gains from Salesforce (+22.5%), CrowdStrike (+20.50%) and ServiceNow (+10.4%). The ETF is now up 6.5% year-to-date, trading at the highest since November 2025. It's a bullish sign that life is coming back to the software sector, though I'm not sure we can say the same about our local software names (Wisetech dipped 10% on results day, PME has given back almost the entirety of its 11.8% rally on 18-Aug, Life360 down 32% since its result on 10-Aug etc).

iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF daily chart (Source: TradingView)

Salesforce EPS blows past ests on AI momentum

[8:44 am] Salesforce delivered an in line revenue result in Q2 FY27 but a dramatic earnings beat, and lifted full-year guidance sharply. The stock rallied 22.5%, and a big driver of software related ETFs like the iShares Expanded Software ETF (+7.7%) and Global X Cloud Computing ETF (+5.2%).

• Revenue up 11% to $11.3bn vs $11.32bn ests (in line)

• Adjusted EPS up 103% to $5.90 vs $3.27 ests (80% beat)

• cRPO up 14% in constant currency to $33.5bn, with total remaining performance obligation up 11% to $66.3bn

• AI and data ARR up more than 210% to roughly $3.9bn, the standout metric and the clearest evidence yet that Agentforce is monetising

• Free cash flow up 81% to $1.1bn, with operating cash flow up 71% to $1.3bn

• FY27 guidance raised to revenue of $46.1-46.4bn vs $46.11bn ests (0.3% beat) and adjusted EPS of $16.67-16.71 vs $14.14 ests (18% beat), with non-GAAP operating margin of 34.3%

Nvidia lifts the market: Q2 beats across the board and Q3 guidance above consensus

[8:09 am] Nvidia shares rallied 8.7% higher on another blowout result. It added approximately US$400 billion in market cap from the move, making it the third largest single-day gain by any stock in history.

Here are the key numbers from the Q2 result:

• Revenue up 106% to US$96.2bn vs US$92.2bn ests (4% beat)

• Data Center revenue up 117% to US$89.0bn vs US$85.8bn ests (4% beat)

• Edge Computing revenue up 27% to US$7.2bn vs US$6.61bn ests (9% beat)

• Adjusted gross margin of 75.0% vs 75% ests (in line), up 250bps year on year

• Adjusted operating income up 124% to US$64.0bn, with adjusted opex up 54% to US$8.2bn

• Adjusted net income up 118% to US$54.0bn and adjusted EPS up 120% to US$2.22 vs US$2.10 ests (6% beat)

• Free cash flow of US$21.3bn, with about US$26.0bn returned to shareholders in the quarter and roughly US$99.0bn left on the buyback authorisation

• Q3 revenue guidance of US$108.0bn plus or minus 2% vs US$104.2bn ests (4% beat), with adjusted gross margin guided to 74.0% plus or minus 50bps

Good morning!

[8:04 am] ASX 200 futures are up 12 pts (+0.13%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Major US benchmarks higher and finished near best levels, though technology was the only one of the 11 S&P 500 sectors to advance

  • S&P 500 (+0.72%), Nasdaq (+1.57%), Dow (+0.20%), Russell 2000 (+0.28%)

• Breadth was weak, with sectors like Discretionary, Healthcare and Staples all down more than 1%, and the Equal-weight S&P 500 down 0.3%

• Nvidia's guidance for 70% revenue growth in FY28 reset the AI debate, and blowout Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Okta numbers lifted beaten up software names

• Jackson Hole opened with three regional Fed presidents warning on inflation, setting up Kevin Warsh's first keynote as chair on Friday