ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 25th September

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, September 25. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Tungsten Mining appoints Jefferies to find strategic investors for Watershed

[9:07 am] Tungsten Mining has appointed Jefferies as financial advisor to find strategic investors for its 100%-owned Watershed Tungsten Project in Far North Queensland, following its recent equity placement.

• Jefferies will run a dedicated strategic investor workstream alongside the debt financing process led by Cutfield Freeman & Co, which was appointed as debt advisor on 24 August

• Several funding options are being assessed in parallel, including debt, strategic investment, offtake-linked funding, government support and commercial partnerships

• Watershed's Preliminary Economic Evaluation showed a pre-tax NPV8 of $1.3bn, a pre-tax IRR of 198% and a nine-month payback

• Chairman Gary Lyons said the aim is to "establish the optimum capital structure for the project rather than pursue any single source of funding"

• Drilling, engineering and pre-FID work are continuing alongside the funding process

Company page: Tungsten Mining (TGN)

Bannerman completes US$320m CNNC deal, clearing a debt-free path for Etango

[9:07 am] Bannerman has completed its strategic investment and joint venture with CNNC Overseas (CNOL) for the Etango Uranium Project in Namibia, with FID expected in Q4 2026.

• CNOL's US$320.4m investment is complete, made up of US$294.5m into the Bannerman UK joint venture company (JVCo) and a US$25.9m reimbursement paid to Bannerman

• CNOL now holds 45% of JVCo, which owns 95% of Etango. That gives Bannerman 52.25% economic ownership of the project, CNOL 42.75% and the One Economy Foundation 5% (loan-carried)

• Etango can now be built without debt. Both partners will fund future capex and operating costs pro rata to their 55% and 45% stakes in JVCo

• CNOL will buy 60% of Etango's production for the life of the mine, priced on a mix of spot and term uranium indices and reviewed every five years. Bannerman will market the remaining 40%

• Bannerman appoints three of JVCo's five board directors and nominates three of five key executive roles, including CEO. Key decisions such as FID require unanimous approval

• Bannerman's pro-forma cash is about $174m after fees, and JVCo holds about US$303m. Bannerman says it is fully funded for its share of working capital through to commercial production

Company page: Bannerman Energy (BMN)

Netwealth to defend First Guardian class action

[9:06 am] Two Netwealth subsidiaries have been served with a class action over First Guardian investment options offered through the Netwealth Superannuation Master Fund.

• The claim covers how the options were offered and monitored, and Netwealth has said it will defend it

• The claim relates to matters already addressed through Netwealth's court-enforceable undertaking with ASIC

• Netwealth paid about $101m in compensation to affected members under a program completed in January 2026, covering each member's net capital invested in First Guardian

Company page: Netwealth (NWL)

Peninsula lifts Lance uranium resource to 59.0Mlbs after Ross drilling

[9:05 am] Peninsula Energy has updated the resource at its flagship Lance in-situ recovery uranium project in Wyoming, following delineation and development drilling at Mine Unit 4.

• Lance Mineral Resource up 1.7% to 59.0Mlbs U3O8, from 53.9Mt at an average grade of 0.05% U3O8

• Resource breakdown is 4.3Mlbs U3O8 Measured, 12.9Mlbs Indicated and 41.7Mlbs Inferred

• Ross Mining Area resource up 15.6% to 7.4Mlbs U3O8, of which 5.9Mlbs is in the higher-confidence Measured and Indicated categories

• Kendrick and Barber resources are unchanged, with further delineation and development drilling planned at Kendrick

• The estimate covers drilling to 31 December 2025 and was prepared by independent consultant WWC Engineering under the JORC Code (2012)

Company page: Peninsula Energy (PEN)

UBS sees copper at US$15,500/mt in 2027 as the supply deficit widens

[9:02 am] UBS CIO strategists Giovanni Staunovo and Kayden Lee remain constructive on copper. They would treat any near-term weakness as a buying opportunity.

• Price forecasts of US$15,000/mt for December 2026 and March 2027, rising to US$15,500/mt by June and September 2027, compared with spot of US$14,573/mt. They expect support at US$13,500–13,750/mt even if speculative longs keep unwinding

• Copper market deficit is expected to widen from 219,000t in 2026 to 379,000t in 2027, driven by constrained mine supply and stronger Chinese import demand

• US tariff uncertainty pulled LME copper back to around US$14,000/mt from a record near US$14,875/mt this month. The strategists note that no tariffs would unwind the COMEX-LME arbitrage, while delay would keep front-loading alive

• China's Yangshan copper cathode premium rose from about US$75/mt at the end of August to above US$120/mt, its highest in nearly four years, pointing to stronger Chinese import demand

• Chilean copper output fell 9% year-on-year in July on weather disruptions at Escondida and Codelco. Chinese treatment charges hit record lows below minus US$200/t, from about minus US$45/t at the start of the year

• LME and SHFE inventories fell 69,750t and 79,650t respectively since early July. COMEX stocks rose over 91,200t, well above seasonal norms, as copper moves into the US ahead of potential tariffs

US 30-year yield hits highest since 2004 as bond rout goes global

[8:51 am] Treasury yields pushed to multi-decade highs as another jump in oil prices added to bets on further Fed tightening.

• 30-year Treasury yield up about 10bp to as high as 5.50%, the highest since 2004, and up more than 80bp since the US-Iran war began

• Treasury accepted US$4.08bn of its US$6bn maximum in a buyback of 20- to 30-year bonds. "If they're not going to buy back the max amount after these conditions, when are they going to?" asked Wellington's Brij Khurana

• US$44bn seven-year note auction cleared at 5.085%, the highest since the tenor returned in 2009, with demand falling short of expectations

• Japan's 10-year yield hit 3.08%, a level last seen in 1996. French and German 10-year yields reached roughly 15-year highs

• Average US 30-year mortgage rate up 19bp in a day to 7.45%, according to Mortgage News Daily

Fed officials line up behind more hikes as October odds climb

[8:51 am] A string of Fed speakers backed further tightening. The Fed lifted rates last week for the first time since 2023, taking the target range to 3.75%–4%.

• New York Fed President John Williams said it was "reasonable" to expect another hike by year-end. He also declared the time for explicit forward guidance "over"

• Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, previously a hold advocate, said "some modest further tightening may be warranted." She said Middle East and AI build-out pressures now outweigh easing tariff effects

• Cleveland's Beth Hammack and Richmond's Tom Barkin warned that supply shocks and persistent cost pressures raise the risk of inflation becoming entrenched

• Governor Michael Barr said further adjustments are likely needed. Boston's Susan Collins flagged a risk of inflation staying "notably" above the 2% target

• CME FedWatch put October hike odds at 77.5%, up from about 53% on Wednesday. Swaps fully price three quarter-point hikes over the next year

Norges Bank hikes as BoE edges closer and SNB holds at 0%

[8:50 am] European central banks diverged on Thursday as the energy shock from the Iran war kept inflation in focus.

• Norges Bank lifted its policy rate 25bp to 4.50% and said it is prepared to hike again. The move was expected by 16 of 28 economists polled by Reuters

• Norway's new rate path implies a 40% chance of another hike within six months, according to Nordea. Core inflation is forecast to ease to 2.7% next year and 2.1% by 2029

• BoE Deputy Governors Clare Lombardelli and Sarah Breeden, who voted to hold at 3.75% last week, signalled they are considering a shift toward a hike

• Markets price a 75% chance of a 25bp BoE hike in November, with another fully priced by February. The BoE sees UK inflation topping 4% early next year

• SNB held its key rate at 0% with August inflation at 0.8%. It forecasts average inflation of 0.7% in 2026 and 0.8% in both 2027 and 2028

• Traders see roughly even odds of a December SNB hike and a better than 90% chance of a hike by early 2027. UBS flagged that franc weakness raises the risk of an earlier move

US and Iran explore phased Hormuz deal as oil climbs on escalation threat

[8:50 am] Oil rallied after Iran threatened to widen the war. At the same time, negotiators in New York discussed a sequenced path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

• Negotiators are exploring a phased deal in which Iran reopens Hormuz and the US lifts its naval blockade. Qatar is mediating the talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly

• Iran's stated conditions include an immediate end to the blockade, unfrozen assets and an end to the war "on all fronts." It may move its Hormuz transit fee demand into a side attachment

• A White House official said Trump "holds all the cards." Former US negotiator Dennis Ross puts the chance of a deal before the 3 November midterms at 30%

• Brent settled 2.0% higher to US$105.20, currently down 0.2% to US$104.9 in today's session

• Saudi crude exports have risen to 5.28m barrels a day in September, the highest since February. Almost 100m barrels have been sold to Asia for October–November delivery via Hormuz

• Houthi militants fired missiles at Saudi Arabia and claimed strikes on Aramco facilities at Yanbu. The kingdom is working to restart its East-West pipeline after a drone strike earlier this month

• Qatari LNG traffic through Hormuz has hit a two-month high but remains well below the pre-war pace of about three shipments a day. European and Asian gas prices are at their highest since 2022

• Senate rejected a resolution to end the war 49–50 as voter anxiety over fuel costs grows. US retail diesel has topped US$6.50 a gallon for the first time

US and China extend trade truce to January as Trump and Xi spar over AI

[8:45 am] Trump hosted Xi for his first US state visit in 11 years. A short truce extension is the main concrete outcome so far.

• Trade truce extended by two months to 10 January, keeping tariff suspensions, rare earth curbs and port fee pauses in place. That falls short of the three to six months flagged by USTR Jamieson Greer

• US tariffs on China carry an effective rate of 26.54%, according to Yale Budget Lab. A proposed 7.5% overcapacity tariff has been delayed until at least after the summit

• Rare earth shipments from China are falling at the fastest pace since the pandemic, according to Oxford Economics, despite Beijing's pledge to restore flows. China handles about 90% of global processing

• China has passed the halfway mark of its 25mt annual soybean pledge. It has yet to book any US corn or wheat toward its broader US$17bn farm purchase commitment

• Scrapping China's tariffs on US LNG could see about US$6bn of contracted annual supply resume, according to Bloomberg calculations

• On AI, Trump said he wants to leave it "exactly where it is." Xi called for development to stay "under human control" and pointed to "even greater potential for cooperation"

• Xi urged the US to "oppose" Taiwan independence. He also backed a return to the 14-point US-Iran memorandum agreed in June

Oracle cites force majeure on Stargate data centre as project debt trades stressed

[8:42 am] Oracle has moved to shield itself from costs on its Project Jupiter campus in New Mexico, a key part of the Stargate AI build-out.

• Oracle sent a force majeure notice to developer Stack Infrastructure, a Blue Owl unit. It seeks to defer payments if the 2.45GW campus fails to come online in 2028

• A power-related force majeure event could delay rent by three years. Oracle would still owe interim costs and rent for the full lease term

• Project debt is trading below 90c in the dollar. About 20 banks provided the US$18bn construction loan, and the notice does not constitute an event of default

• Energy Transfer gas pipeline supplying the site has been delayed nearly six months to 1 February 2027 after repeated permit denials

• Oracle shares fell 4.4% intraday, taking year-to-date losses to 29%. A gauge of its credit risk hit a record high and Blue Owl shares fell 3.7%

Source: Bloomberg

Nvidia and Apple now a record 15% of the S&P 500

[8:42 am] The S&P 500 has never been more concentrated in two stocks, according to Creative Planning president Peter Mallouk.

• Nvidia and Apple account for over 15% of the index. That compares with a 9.1% combined weighting for Microsoft and GE heading into the dot-com bust

• Apple hit a record US$345 on Tuesday and is up 25% year-to-date after launching the iPhone 18 and its first foldable, the Duo

• Nvidia said in late August its business could grow at least 70% next financial year, or more than 100% without supply constraints. Its shares are up 21% year-to-date

Source: Yahoo Finance

JPMorgan lifts Meta target to US$920 on Muse AI momentum

[8:41 am] JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth raised his Meta price target after the company's Connect conference.

• Anmuth raised his target to US$920 from US$820, implying about 24% upside, and kept an overweight rating

• Muse could become the most widely used consumer AI app since ChatGPT, Anmuth tells clients. He sees it bringing a capable personal agent to billions of users

• Muse connected with more than 2,000 apps in its first two weeks. Partners include Walmart, Best Buy, Sephora and Wayfair

• Anmuth sees scope for Meta to monetise Muse interactions through a take-rate or commission. He calls connectors "the first of many steps" to bring businesses onto the platform

• Meta shares are up about 30% in September, on track for the biggest monthly gain since July 2013. 57 of 63 analysts rate the stock a buy

Source: Yahoo Finance

Wall Street treads water as bond volatility caps risk appetite

[8:40 am] US stocks ended little changed as rising yields and oil prices kept traders cautious. Most S&P 500 stocks closed lower.

• US 2-year yield up 3 bps to 4.93%, another 'the highest since 2007' and up around 75 bps since late August

• US 10-year yield up 10 bps to 5.20%, also the highest since 2007 and up 58 bps since late August

• Edward Jones' Angelo Kourkafas said rapid yield gains and bond volatility are creating a "more meaningful headwind" for equities. He added that solid growth and broad earnings growth still offer support

• Laffer Tengler's Byron Anderson warned that rate hikes "do not solve Iran, oil, the AI boom, or inflation" but will raise borrowing costs across the market

• Anthropic signed a US$11.6bn, seven-year computing contract with Akamai. Separately, Qualcomm renewed its global licensing pact with Apple from 1 April

• Paramount Skydance aims to wrap up a US$52bn debt sale for its Warner Bros. Discovery takeover within a week

Source: Bloomberg

Good morning!

[8:23 am] ASX 200 futures are down 29 pts (-0.33%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Wall Street shrugs off another bond rout as reports of phased US-Iran talks to reopen Hormuz offset long-dated Treasury yields at two-decade highs

  • S&P 500 (-0.02%) vs. session lows of (-0.51%)

  • Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.50%)

  • Nasdaq (+0.01%), Dow (-0.31%) and Russell 2000 (-0.11%)

• Hike talk keeps building across central banks, with New York Fed's Williams backing another move by year-end and two BoE deputies edging toward tightening

• AI trade sends mixed signals as Oracle's force majeure notice on a Stargate data centre weighs while Meta extends its Muse-driven rally