ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 23rd January

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, January 22. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 on track to close slightly higher

[2:22 pm] The ASX 200 has given up some gains this afternoon, but is still up 0.19% (17 points) on the day. This means it's likely to end the week flat, with a YTD performance of 1.74%. Life360 was the big winner, and is still up 27%, while various resources names also saw double-digit gains. That's all from us after another eventful week on the ASX and elsewhere. We'll be back on Tuesday.

Enjoy your long weekend.

By Tom Stelzer

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Japan’s inflation slows in December but underlying pressure remains strong

[1:09 pm] Japan’s CPI eased due to government subsidies, though core inflation and price momentum point to sustained underlying price pressures.

• Core CPI ex-fresh food up 2.4% year-on-year in December, down from 3.0% in November, in-line with market expectations

• Energy prices fell 3.1% year-on-year after rising 2.5% in November

• 2025 core inflation averaged 3.1%, fourth consecutive year above BOJ 2% target, first time since 1992

• Food price gains moderated: processed foods +6.7%, overall food +5.1%, rice +34.4%

• Weak yen and solid wage growth support underlying price pressures

• Government subsidies and potential tax relief aim to reduce inflation by ~0.7ppt Feb–Apr, ahead of snap elections

The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision will take place at 2:00 pm AEST, where economists widely expect a hold at 0.75%.

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Australian business activity accelerates in January 2026

[1:07 pm] Australia’s flash PMI shows stronger growth in both manufacturing and services, supported by rising new orders, hiring, and positive business sentiment.

• S&P Flash Australia PMI Composite Output Index 55.5, up from 51.0 in December, joint-highest since April 2022

• Manufacturing PMI at 52.4 vs. 51.6 in the previous month

• Services PMI jumped to 56.0 vs. 51.1 in the previous month

• Output growth driven by quicker expansions in manufacturing and services new business

• New export orders rose at fastest pace in 3.5 years, supported by overseas demand for Australian goods

• Employment increased to manage higher workloads, though overall jobs growth softened compared to December

• Backlogs of work rose for the first time in nine months, reflecting higher new business inflows

• Input cost and output price inflation eased, with input price inflation at a 14-month low and slower selling price rises

Company page: S&P Global

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Analysts' take on Pantoro

[12:02 pm] Pantoro shares tumbled 10.9% on Thursday after the company's December quarter report missed production and cash flow expectations due to slower underground ramp-ups and unfavourable ore grades.

• Canaccord Genuity retained Speculative Buy, target lowered $7.45 from $7.50. Production weaker and AISCs higher than expected, though grades improving; FY26 guidance likely achievable at lower end.

• Goldman Sachs retained Buy, target lowered $7.55 from $8. Q2 softer than expected but improved sequentially; strong balance sheet and production growth potential underpin positive stance.

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Intraday ASX 200 runners

[11:50 am] The intraday scan looks at stocks with the largest % change since the open.

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Analysts' take on Fortescue

[11:10 am] Fortescue suffered a sharp 5.1% selloff on Thursday after reporting a relatively mixed December quarter, with record first half shipments offset by higher-than-expected costs and a disappointing performance from Iron Bridge.

• UBS retained Neutral, target $20. Record shipments support earnings momentum, though cost inflation and slower Iron Bridge progress are concerns; new portfolio strategy seen as value additive.

• RBC Capital Markets retained Sector Perform, target $23. Strong volumes offset by uneven operational execution and cost miss; Iron Bridge credibility remains a key risk, balance sheet supports future options.

• Macquarie retained Underperform, target $21. Production steady but higher costs and cautious iron ore macro; near-term earnings resilient despite operational drag.

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:22 am] Life360 is ripping higher off the back of its preliminary 2025 report, while gold stocks are trading broad higher as bullion prices continue to make fresh all-time highs.

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AUSTRAC orders external audit of Airwallex

[10:21 am] Australia’s financial crime watchdog has ordered Airwallex to appoint an external auditor, citing suspected anti money laundering and counter terrorism financing compliance failures.

• AUSTRAC says Airwallex’s transaction monitoring may not be geared for the full range of risks arising from multi-jurisdiction fund transfers.

• AUSTRAC says the business has not demonstrated an acceptable understanding of who its customers are and what reporting may be required.

• The regulator also flagged potential gaps in monitoring and reporting of suspicious matters and oversight of those obligations.

• The auditor must now report findings to AUSTRAC within 180 days of appointment, with the audit conducted at Airwallex’s expense.

• IPO watch: The AUSTRAC-ordered review could complicate any 2026 listing plans until the auditor reports any remediation within 180 days.

By Warren Masilamony

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Alcoa confident in 2026, focuses on efficiency and key restarts

[10:12 am] Alcoa just wrapped up its Q4 earnings call, with management signalling steady production, cost control, and selective growth initiatives for 2026. Some of the key takeaways include:

• Confidence in 2026 guidance supported by ongoing restarts and strong smelter performance, with potential upward revisions

• Alumina supply for US sites may be adjusted if it lowers transportation costs

• Gallium project at Wagerup progressing with government support

• Alumina cost initiatives continue, prioritising plant viability; higher-cost global competitors under margin pressure

• Divestment of idle sites is complex but $500m–$1bn target over five years remains on track

• Alumar smelter stabilisation ongoing, with production expected to remain steady in near term

• San Ciprián restart on track for mid-2026, profitability expected post-restart, cash neutrality by 2H27 via CO2 compensation

• No greenfield expansion due to high capital and energy costs, brownfield growth opportunities exist across mining, refining, and smelting segments

Company page: Alcoa (AAI)

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Life360 surges almost 30%

[10:07 am] Life360 opened 21.6% higher ($32.31) and currently up 29.3% ($34.29) in early trade. As we noted earlier, the company reported preliminary 2025 results, with numbers tracking slightly ahead of market expectations.

• Revenue up 31-32% to $486-489m vs $481.4m est (1.3% beat at the midpoint)

• Adjusted EBITDA between $87-92m vs $86.3m est (3.7% beat)

• EBITDA margin of 18-19% (vs. Citi ests of 17.0%)

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Objective Corp launches on-market buyback

[9:47 am] Objective Corp has launched an on-market buyback of up to 9.6 million shares, which will run for 12 months from 6 February. This represents approximately 10% of shares on issue.

Objective Corp is one of many tech names that have aggressively de-rated in recent months, with the stock down 30.5% since August 2025.

On 21 August 2025, the stock rallied 20.5% after the company reported a better-than-expected FY25 result and guided to 15% ARR growth for FY26.

Objective Corp daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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JPMorgan tweaks REIT valuations

[9:40 am] A few minor target price changes for REITs under JPMorgan coverage.

Upgrades:

• Centuria Capital upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target remains $2.30

• Stockland upgraded to Overweight from Underweight; target increased to $6.10 from $6.00

• Charter Hall Long WALE REIT upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; target remains $4.30

Downgrades:

• Abacus Storage King REIT downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target remains $1.70

• Carindale Property Trust downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target remains $5.90

• GPT Group downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target increased to $5.90 from $5.80

• BWP Trust downgraded to Underweight from Neutral; target increased to $3.80 from $3.70

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Life360 delivers record user growth and strong revenue beat

[9:35 am] Life360 posted preliminary FY25 results showing record user additions and strong revenue performance.

• Revenue up 31-32% to $486-489m vs $481.4m est (1.3% beat at the midpoint)

• Adjusted EBITDA between $87-92m vs $86.3m est (3.7% beat)

• EBITDA margin of 18-19% (vs. Citi ests of 17.0%)

• Global MAU up 20% year-on-year to 95.8m, with Q4 net additions 16.2m

• US MAU up 16% year-on-year to 50.6m

• International MAU up 26% year-on-year to 45.3m

• Paying Circles at 2.8m, record conversion to paid subscribers

• FY26 guidance only noted MAU growth of ~20% (this growth rate is in-line with Citi estimates of 20% for FY26)

Management commentary: "Q4 2025 represents our strongest operational performance in company history, with record user additions and record subscriber growth. The quality of our growth continues to improve, with newly acquired users converting to paid subscribers at record rates. While we typically see variation quarter-to-quarter, our Q4 2025 and full year 2025 results demonstrate that our growth trends remain intact and consistent."

Nasdaq-listed Life360 shares rallied 16.5% after hours, so expect a very strong open. Hard to say where this one goes, given the broad de-rating for most tech names like QOR, TNE, WTC, XRO, CAT etc. Life360 still trades at a trailing PE of 150x, though today's preliminary numbers highlight a slight beat across the board and in-line FY26 guidance.

Company page: Life360 (360)

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Alcoa beats Q4 estimates, guides lower for Q1

[9:25 am] Alcoa delivered a solid Q4, exceeding expectations on revenue, EPS and EBITDA, supported by higher sales and improved working capital efficiency, while noting typical Q1 headwinds for both alumina and aluminium segments.

• Q4 Revenue: $3.45bn vs $3.27bn est (5.5% beat)

• Q4 EPS ex-items: $1.26 vs $0.93 est (35% beat)

• Q4 Adjusted EBITDA: $546m vs $519.7m est (5.1% beat)

Q1 Guidance:

• Alumina Adjusted EBITDA: $30m sequential impact from maintenance cycles, lower shipments and bauxite pricing/volume

• Aluminum Adjusted EBITDA: $70m sequential impact from absence of Q4 carbon dioxide compensation and San Ciprián smelter restart

FY2026 Outlook (don't have any consensus numbers handy):

• Alumina production: 9.7–9.9Mt, with shipments of 11.8–12.0Mt

• Aluminum production: 2.4–2.6Mt, with shipments of 2.6–2.8Mt

Company page: Alcoa Corp (AAI)

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Capstone Copper operations disrupted by Mantoverde strike

[9:13 am] Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde mine is facing operational interruptions after striking union members blocked access to the site’s desalination plant, cutting water supply.

• On 18-Jan, individuals entered the desalination plant, interfering with its electrical system and halting water flow to Mantoverde.

• Sulphide operations are paused, while oxide operations will continue only until tomorrow unless water supply is restored.

• The company is seeking judicial intervention to regain access, restore water, and resume full operations.

• TSX-listed Capstone shares finished the overnight session down 3.7%

For context, mediation with Mantoverde's Union #2, which represents ~22% of the total workforce or 50% of employees, ended on 1-Jan-26 without an agreement and the workers commenced strike action the following day. Capstone estimates that operations at Mantoverde now operate at 50-75% of normal production.

Company page: Capstone Copper (CSC)

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GenusPlus lifts FY26 guidance

[9:07 am] GenusPlus upgraded its FY26 earnings guidance at 3:28 pm AEST on Thursday, now expecting normalised EBITDA to grow around 35% year-on-year vs. prior guidance of 20-25% and consensus expectations of 23.1%.

Management cited recent contract wins, full-year contributions from acquisitions and a strong order book as key supports for the upgraded outlook. Industry tailwinds linked to the national energy transition are increasing activity levels and underpinning confidence in medium-term earnings resilience.

The stock resumed trading at 3:40 pm and experienced a quick U-shaped move into the close (gap up, dip and back to highs).

GenusPlus intraday chart on Thursday, 22nd January 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The stock gapped higher on the earnings upgrade, but early selling likely reflected that many traders hadn’t seen the late-session announcement, which might explain why the stock rallied back up towards intraday highs in the last couple minutes of trade. It'll be interesting to see how GNP trades today, given the size of the earnings upgrade relative to consensus.

Company page: GenusPlus Group (GNP)

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US growth revised higher as demand stays resilient

[9:00 am] The US economy grew faster than first reported in the September quarter, underpinned by solid domestic demand and improved trade dynamics.

• GDP was revised up to a 4.4% annualised pace, the strongest growth in two years, supported by stronger exports and a smaller drag from inventories.

• Consumer spending rose at a robust 3.5%, led by the fastest growth in services consumption in three years, with goods spending also accelerating.

• Business investment increased 3.2%, driven by computer equipment, while data centre investment linked to AI infrastructure hit a fresh record.

• Final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 2.9%, matching the prior quarter and signalling steady underlying demand despite volatility in trade and inventories.

• Core PCE inflation held at 2.9%, and with jobless claims still low, the data reinforces expectations the Fed will keep rates on hold at its next meeting.

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Trump eases Greenland standoff with NATO framework

[8:56 am] The US and NATO have agreed to a preliminary framework on Greenland that defuses a brewing transatlantic crisis while strengthening Arctic security and limiting Russian and Chinese influence.

• The outline deal includes enhanced NATO presence in Greenland, potential changes to the 1951 defence treaty, US missile stationing and economic provisions such as mining rights aimed at blocking Chinese interests.

• In return, the US has paused tariff threats against Europe, temporarily easing what had become the most serious strain on NATO unity in decades.

• Sovereignty was explicitly left off the table, a key breakthrough for Denmark, even as Trump claimed the US was securing “total access” for security purposes.

• The agreement reflects rising strategic urgency in the Arctic as melting ice opens new sea lanes and elevates Greenland’s role in defending North Atlantic access.

Source: Bloomberg

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Workday downplays AI disruption risk

[8:54 am] Workday CEO Carl Eschenbach said fears that AI is destroying software business models are overstated, arguing AI is a tailwind that is increasing customer reliance on Workday’s platform and data.

The comments come after sharp share price declines across enterprise software, with Workday down 17% last year and a further 15% in 2026 amid concerns over weaker subscription growth. Peers like Adobe, Salesforce and Hubspot lost 21%, 20% and 42% respectively last year.

Management says incumbency, trusted first-party data and heavier AI investment position Workday to emerge as a long-term winner rather than a casualty of AI.

Source: CNBC

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Kospi breaks 5,000 as chips and reform re-rate Korea

[8:52 am] South Korea’s equity market has surged to all-time highs on Thursday, driven by an AI-led semiconductor boom and long-awaited corporate governance reforms that are compressing the long-standing Korea discount.

• The Kospi briefly broke above 5,000 after rising nearly 20% this month, before closing at 4,952, delivering a symbolic win for President Lee Jae Myung’s reform agenda.

• Semiconductor heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which together make up over one-third of the index, have led the rally, with Samsung nearly tripling and SK Hynix rising almost fourfold over the past year on AI-driven memory demand.

• Governance reforms are reshaping investor perceptions, including changes to the Commercial Act requiring directors to consider all shareholders, tax incentives to lift dividends, and proposals to cancel treasury shares to boost minority rights and EPS.

• Investors argue valuations remain attractive despite the rally, with fund managers citing improving fundamentals rather than speculative excess as the key driver of gains.

KOSPI index daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Goldman lifts gold target as private demand turns structural

[8:47 am] Goldman Sachs has raised its gold forecast, citing persistent private-sector hedging layered on top of already-strong central bank and ETF demand.

• Goldman lifted its December 2026 gold target to US$5,400/oz from US$4,900, assuming private investors retain macro risk hedges rather than unwind them.

• Gold is up more than 70% over the past 12 months, with gains extending into early 2026 as haven demand accelerates.

• Central banks are expected to buy around 60 tonnes a month in 2026, led by emerging markets continuing reserve diversification into bullion.

• Western gold ETFs have added roughly 500 tonnes since early 2025, exceeding flows implied by rate cuts alone, with Goldman forecasting a further 50 basis points of Fed easing in 2026.

• Goldman sees risks skewed to the upside, driven by fiscal sustainability concerns, policy uncertainty and the debasement trade, with downside only if macro policy risks meaningfully fade.

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Winter blast triggers historic gas price shock

[8:46 am] An extreme US winter storm has driven a sharp spike in natural gas prices, exposing structural constraints in supply and rising competition from power generation and data centres.

• US natural gas futures have surged more than 75% in five days, the largest five-day jump since at least 1990, driven by cold weather set to impact over 150 million people.

• Natural gas supplies 47% of US heating demand and is a major input into electricity generation, amplifying demand during cold snaps as both heating and power backup needs rise.

• Shares of major gas producers rallied on the move, with EQT up 6% and Antero Resources up 4%, extending gains into premarket trade.

• Pipeline capacity remains a key bottleneck, particularly in the northeast, where demand growth has far outpaced infrastructure, limiting the system’s ability to respond to sudden demand spikes.

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Small caps seize early-cycle leadership

[8:44 am] Small cap stocks have started 2026 strongly, with a rare and sustained run of outperformance vs. large caps as macro expectations and market leadership shift.

• The Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 for a 14th straight session, the longest streak since May 1996, and is nearing its eighth record close this year.

• Goldman Sachs expects above-consensus US growth, below-consensus inflation and ongoing Fed easing, a macro mix that has historically favoured small caps during cyclical rallies.

• Markets are not fully pricing the strength of the US economy, according to Goldman, suggesting further upside if growth data continues to surprise.

• Investor enthusiasm for AI is fading amid cost pressures and uncertain profitability, driving rotation away from mega-cap tech and into smaller, more cyclical stocks.

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US equities higher, Russell 200 at record highs

[8:43 am] A fairly solid overnight session, though most indices finished off best levels.

• Nasdaq (+0.91%), Russell 2000 (+0.76%), Dow (+0.63%), S&P 500 (+0.55%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.13%)

• Seven out of eleven S&P 500 sectors higher, with notable gainers/losers including Communication Services (+1.57%), Discretionary (+1.22%) and Real Estate (-1.10%)

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq still tracking lower week-to-date, down 0.38% and 0.34% respectively

• Small cap Russell 2000 continues to run hot, marking second consecutive record close and now up 9.1% year-to-date

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Good morning!

[8:32 am] ASX 200 futures are down 7 pts (-0.07%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks higher but off best levels, S&P 500 and Nasdaq still slightly negative for the week

• Russell 2000 hit fresh all-time highs and outperformed the S&P 500 for a 14th straight session

• Stocks continued to trend higher after Trump softened his stance on Greenland, more details about the NATO deal suggest potential mineral rights but sovereignty not on the table

• Another massive session for commodities, with gold, silver and platinum all trading at record highs

To catch up on all overnight developments, check out today's Morning Wrap.