ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 16th January

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, January 16. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 rallies intraday, extends win streak to five

[1:55 pm] I'm so used to the market fading early gains that genuinely surprising to see it close at intraday highs. The ASX 200 is currently up 0.56%, on track to lock in a five-day win streak, up a collective 2.23%. For the past week, sector performance has been broadly higher, led by the Resources sector as well as consumer facing sectors (that are bouncing from ~1 year lows). A few select defensives like Utilities, Healthcare and Telcos have underperformed, along with tech, which has really struggled to bounce from oversold conditions.

ASX 200 weekly sector performance (Source: TradingView)

On a side note, I compiled how far mid-to-large cap tech stocks are from their 52-week highs. It pains a pretty ugly picture, with names like Wisetech, Catapult, Xero, Life360, TechnologyOne and Megaport all down 30-50% from yearly highs.

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Meta shuts nearly 550,000 accounts in Australia as under 16 rules bite

[1:19 pm] Meta says it has shut down almost 550,000 accounts in Australia to comply with the country’s new age restrictions for social media. The removals span Instagram (about 330,000), Facebook (about 173,000) and Threads (almost 40,000), targeting accounts believed to be held by users under 16.

• Local teen reach shrinks. Removing under 16 accounts can reduce deliverable impressions for brands targeting teens and families (retail, fast food, entertainment), potentially pressuring company’s Asia Pacific revenue, even if global results barely move.

• Quality may improve. Australian eSafety Commissioner’s data implies multiple accounts per child were common, so part of the decline may be de duplication and enforcement against repeat signups, which can lift targeting integrity and brand safety over time.

• Compliance is a cost line. Age assurance, enforcement and appeals processes add ongoing operating burden, and Meta has flagged Australia’s under 16 bans (and similar proposals elsewhere) as a driver of compliance costs and product changes.

The new rules took effect on 10 December 2025.

By Warren Masilamony

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Uranium stocks extend gains

[12:29 pm] Uranium stocks are trading broadly higher, with a bellwether name like Paladin Energy rallying to the highest level since October 2024. The catalyst remains unclear, notable overnight developments include:

• Uranium spot prices back at 18-month highs of US$85.13/lb

• Canada and China entered into a new partnership which promote Canadian uranium sales to China

• China has plans to triple its nuclear fleet over the next decade, while global nuclear generation reached record highs in 2025

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GYG growth story intact but near-term risks linger

[11:59 am] GYG’s long-term Australian revenue potential remains strong, but UBS flags near-term questions on restaurant openings and same-store sales.

• UBS lowers FY26-27e underlying EBITDA by 0.7%/1.1% and reported NPAT by 7.9%/6.7% following slower-than-expected SSSg and a small shift in net restaurant numbers.

• Long-term growth remains solid, with FY25 network sales expected to double by FY30 and triple by FY34, driven by 40 new restaurants per year and mid-single-digit SSSg, supported by menu innovation, daypart expansion, delivery growth, and 24/7 drive-thru adoption.

• Near-term, FY26 restaurant openings may be slightly delayed (e.g. Fitzroy, VIC) and early FY26 SSSg (+3.7% in first 7 weeks) is below FY25’s +9.6%, raising sensitivity to short-term growth.

• UBS cut its target price from $27 to $24 due to lower earnings forecasts and softening EV/EBITDA multiples

Company page: Guzman y Gomez (GYG)

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4DMedical shrugs off cap raise

[11:26 am] Shares in 4DMedical (+5.4%) are back at all-time highs despite completing a $150 million institutional placement at $3.80 per new share (11.4% discount) on Thursday.

Thursday's price action was incredibly bullish, with the stock opening 6.7% lower ($4.00), briefly dipped as much as -9.0% ($3.90) but finished the session 5.5% higher ($4.53).

4DMedical daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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US “big six” banks return record capital as buybacks surge

[11:17 am] America’s largest banks ramped up shareholder returns in 2025, with the six biggest lenders paying out more than US$140 billion via dividends and share buybacks, beating the prior record set in 2019.

The backdrop is a mix of stronger profitability and easing bank capital rules, giving executives more room to step up repurchases. What’s driving the surge:

• JPMorgan led the buyback wave, repurchasing more than US$30 billion of its own stock, a new high for Wall Street banks and more than triple the level two years earlier.

• In June, the Federal Reserve moved to reduce certain holding company capital requirements under the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, a rule that hits the biggest banks.

• Strong outcomes in the Fed’s annual stress test helped open the door for bigger capital return plans, with many lenders accelerating activity in Q3.

• Citigroup lifted buybacks fivefold year-on-year in the third quarter, and banks expect that momentum to carry into the current year.

By Warren Masilamony

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:40 am] Paladin Energy tops the leaderboard, though not sure why as overnight uranium equities finished relatively flat.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Alistair Rankin highlighted Paladin as their key preference among ASX uranium producers this morning, citing a "clear pathway to nameplate capacity by start of FY27 as G-pit primary ore is delivered and mining fleet commissioning completes."

Elsewhere, money managers (PNI, NWL and HUB), gold and rare earth stocks also trading higher.

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ASX 200 flat, sectors mixed

[10:17 am] ASX 200 pretty much flat in early trade and fairly even split of constituents trading higher and lower. A few sectors of interest:

• ASX 200 Utilities Index down 10.7% since Oct-25 and trading at the lowest since 1-Jul-25

• ASX 200 Tech is at the lowest since the Liberation Day selloff last April. It hasn't undercut those levels but struggling for a meaningful bounce

• ASX 200 Materials slightly higher, a positive close will mark a fourth straight all-time high, All Ords (+0.79%) also trading at all-time highs

ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Fixed mortgage rates jump again as banks price in higher for longer

[10:11 am] Commonwealth Bank has lifted fixed home loan rates by up to 0.7 percentage points, pushing its lowest owner occupier fixed rate to 5.79% on a 2-year principal and interest package loan.

Macquarie also moved on the same day, hiking fixed rates by 0.25 per cent across all terms, taking its lowest rate to 5.59% on a 1 year fixed.

For borrowers shopping around, Canstar’s comparison shows NAB currently has the lowest headline fixed rate among the big four at 5.39% on both 1 year and 2 year terms vs. CBA at 5.94% (1 year) and 5.79% (2 year).

Canstar says 34 lenders have hiked at least one fixed rate in the past month, and only 16 lenders still offer fixed rates below 5%, down from 27 a month earlier.

By Warren Masilamony

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Global economy remains “Goldilocks,” recession risk low

[9:42 am] Solid near-trend growth, subdued inflation, and central bank easing point to a constructive macro backdrop, according to Citi.

• Global growth projected at 2.9% in 2025, edging down to 2.8% over the next two years

• Country-level trends softer in China, Singapore, Spain, Brazil, stronger in Australia, Poland, Sweden, Korea.

• Headline inflation near 2%, global core inflation around 2.5%, subdued pressures expected as resource markets remain well supplied and oil averages $62 a barrel in the second half.

• Technological advances improve company-level adaptability, underpinning resilience and supporting assessment that global recession risk is no higher than 20%.

• Key risks include AI sector retrenchment, high public debt stress, geopolitical tensions, US labour market weakness, and tariff impacts, though none seen as more imminent than in recent years.

• US Fed independence remains robust despite political scrutiny, including criminal probe into Chairman Powell, but safeguards expected to prevail.

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Australian Ethical FUM dips slightly in Q4

[9:31 am] Australian Ethical reported funds under management of $14.08 billion at 31 December 2025, down 1% for the quarter, with net inflows partially offset by investment performance and institutional outflows.

• Organic retail and wholesale net flows of $0.10bn driven by superannuation, with a 15% increase in new member joins following digital marketing improvements and the GROW platform transition.

• Inorganic outflow of $0.25bn from the sale of the low-margin Australian Unity Bank mandate to Bank Australia, represents a small revenue impact (~$0.3m) offset by platform simplification and cost savings.

• Positive client capital management added $0.07bn to FUM during the quarter.

• Investment performance negative at -$0.11bn due to challenging market conditions, partially offsetting inflows.

• Strong pipeline and upcoming product innovation expected to support growth in the second half of FY26.

Company page: Australian Ethical (AEF)

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James Hardie to streamline US operations, keeps FY26 outlook

[9:25 am] James Hardie will close two US manufacturing sites, a move aimed at improving efficiency and cutting costs.

• Closing Fontana (California) and Summerville (Southern California) plants within 60 days

• The plans represent ~6% of YTD North American volume, which will be absorbed by other facilities.

• Annualised cost savings of ~US$25m expected from Q1 FY27.

• One-time pre-tax charges of US$40–44m, mostly recognised in Q4 FY26.

• FY26 guidance reaffirmed, with Adjusted EBITDA expected at US$1.20–1.25bn

Company page: James Hardie Industries (JHX)

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Rio–Glencore merger talks turn to structure and carve-outs

[9:12 am] Rio Tinto and Glencore are quietly working through how a potential US$300 billion merger could be structured, with copper value driving the logic and coal assets the main complication, according to the AFR.

• Rio has until February 5 under UK takeover rules to lodge a formal proposal, forcing boards and advisers to assess which assets sit inside or outside a deal.

• Copper is the strategic centrepiece, with Glencore’s growing production seen as the key value lever and likely driver of any agreed terms.

• Glencore’s coal portfolio generates about 8% of combined EBITDA and is being assessed for a possible ASX spin-off, mirroring BHP’s South32 demerger model.

• The trading arm contributes roughly 9% of earnings and presents a structural challenge for a merged mining group.

• Barrenjoey estimates a structure implying Rio would own about 66% of the combined entity, though Glencore shareholders are expected to seek a premium for copper growth, according to the AFR.

When the merger speculation emerged on 9 January, Rio Tinto shares dipped 6.2%, while Glencore shares rallied 9.6% (clearly implies such company is seeking a premium).

Company page: Rio Tinto (RIO)

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Fed speakers send mixed signals on rates and independence

[9:06 am] Another round of Fed commentary highlighted ongoing divisions on the outlook for rates, inflation risks and the importance of central bank independence.

• Goolsbee: Expects cuts this year but stressed data dependence and warned inflation could surge if Fed independence is undermined.

• Barr: Said scrutiny of Powell is an assault on Fed independence and that current interest rate settings are broadly appropriate.

• Bostic: Reiterated policy needs to stay restrictive as inflation remains too high, despite some labour market cooling and solid 2026 growth outlook.

• Barkin: Questioned the reliability of recent economic data, offering little directional guidance.

• Market pricing: Around 50bp of cuts priced by year-end, though traders are increasingly betting on no cuts and a prolonged hold through 2026.

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Morgan Stanley’s debt franchise surges on AI-led issuance

[9:05 am] Morgan Stanley delivered a strong fourth quarter driven by a near-doubling in debt underwriting, highlighting its growing role financing large-scale AI and data centre projects. The stock finished 5.7% higher overnight, closing at record levels.

• Debt underwriting revenue jumped 93% year on year to US$785m, beating expectations by more than 20% and marking the strongest growth on Wall Street.

• Total investment banking fees rose 47% to US$2.41bn, with debt and advisory both materially outperforming a subdued M&A backdrop.

• The firm arranged tens of billions of dollars of AI-related debt in the quarter, including more than US$27bn for Meta’s Hyperion data centre, reinforcing its push into debt capital markets.

• Wealth management momentum remained strong, with net new assets of US$122bn far exceeding expectations and underpinning earnings stability.

• Trading was mixed, with equities strong but FICC softer, leaving total trading revenue slightly below consensus.

Earnings snapshot (Q4’25):

• Net revenue up 10% to US$17.89bn vs. US$17.62bn est. (+1.5% beat)

• EPS up 21% to US$2.68 vs. consensus, materially ahead of expectations

• Credit loss provision US$18m vs. US$81.1m est. (-78% vs. est.)

Institutional Securities:

• Equities trading up 10% to US$3.67bn vs. US$3.55bn est. (+3.4% beat)

• FICC trading down 9% to US$1.76bn vs. US$1.92bn est. (-8.3% miss)

• Investment banking up 47% to US$2.41bn

Wealth Management:

• Net revenue up 13% to US$8.43bn vs. US$8.34bn est. (+1.1% beat)

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Goldman rallies to all-time highs on Q4 results

[9:00 am] Goldman Sachs reclaimed the top spot in equity underwriting in Q4 as deal momentum improved and management flagged a stronger 2026 backdrop, even as overall ECM activity remains well below 2021 peaks. The stock rallied 4.6% overnight, closing at fresh all-time highs.

• Generated US$521m in equity underwriting revenue in Q4, ahead of Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, positioning it early for a potentially busy 2026 IPO cycle.

• Global Banking and Markets revenues hit a record, up 18% year on year, with the investment banking backlog at a four-year high.

• Management expects 2026 equity capital markets activity to be higher than 2025, though still below the 2021 peak, with large private companies and PE exits lining up.

• Medline’s US$7.2bn IPO, the largest since 2022, underscored Goldman’s leadership, with Goldman and Morgan Stanley taking more than a third of total fees.

Earnings snapshot (4Q25):

• EPS (diluted) up 17% to US$14.01 vs. US$11.48–11.65 ests (21% beat)

• Net revenues down 3% to US$13.45bn vs. US$13.79–13.90bn ests (3.5% miss)

Segment revenues:

• Global Banking and Markets up 22% to US$10.41bn vs. US$9.27bn est. (+12% beat)

• Equities trading up 25% to US$4.31bn vs. US$3.65bn est. (+18% beat)

• FICC trading up 12% to US$3.11bn vs. US$2.95bn est. (+5% beat)

• Advisory up 41% to US$1.36bn vs. US$1.34bn est. (+1% beat)

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Rio Tinto lands first Nuton customer as AWS backs low-carbon copper

[8:56 am] Rio Tinto has secured AWS as the first customer for its Nuton bioleaching technology, linking low-carbon copper production directly to US data centre demand.

• Two-year agreement sees AWS use Nuton copper from the Johnson Camp mine in US data centre components.

• AWS will also provide cloud-based data and analytics to optimise Nuton’s bioleaching performance, improving copper recovery while reducing acid and water use.

• Nuton produces 99.99% pure copper cathode at the mine gate, eliminating the need for concentrators, smelters and refineries and materially shortening the supply chain.

• Full-scope carbon footprint of 2.82 kgCO2e per kg of copper, positioning Johnson Camp as the lowest-carbon primary copper producer in the US.

• Water intensity is forecast at 71 litres per kg of copper vs. a global industry average of around 130 litres.

Company page: Rio Tinto (RIO)

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TSMC doubles down on AI with aggressive capex and margin uplift

[8:54 am] TSMC’s stronger-than-expected guidance and sharply higher capex reinforce confidence in sustained AI-driven demand rather than a near-term bubble.

• 2026 capex guided at US$52–56bn, around 10–15% above consensus and nearly 40% higher than 2025, signalling an accelerated capacity build to meet AI demand.

• 2026 revenue growth forecast near 30%, ahead of market expectations, with long-term revenue CAGR lifted by 5pp to 25% and AI revenue CAGR raised to the mid-to-high 50% range.

• Management explicitly pushed back on AI bubble concerns, framing elevated investment as necessary but disciplined to avoid overextension.

• Profitability continues to surprise, with long-term gross margin guidance lifted to 56% and Q1 margins guided materially above consensus.

• Read-through positive for the broader AI supply chain, with strong spillover to key equipment and chip peers as hyperscalers sustain data centre spend.

Earnings snapshot (Q4):

• Revenue up 25.5% to US$33.73bn vs. US$33.3bn est. (+1.3% beat)

• Gross margin 62.3% vs. 60.5% est. (180 bp beat)

• Operating margin 54.0% vs. ~50% est. (400 bp beat)

• Net profit US$16.30bn vs. US$15.2bn est. (+7.2% beat)

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Oil slides as Iran risk premium unwinds

[8:51 am] Oil prices fell sharply as near-term fears of US military action against Iran eased, stripping out geopolitical risk that had driven a recent rally.

• WTI crude down 3.0% to around US$59 a barrel, its biggest one-day fall since June, after gaining roughly 10% over the prior week.

• Reports that Israel asked the US to delay any strike on Iran reduced expectations of immediate supply disruptions to Iranian output or key shipping routes.

• Trump’s softer rhetoric on Iran and comments that executions were not proceeding lowered the perceived urgency of a US response, despite warnings of consequences if violence resumes.

• New US sanctions reinforced pressure on Iran but signalled escalation via financial measures rather than imminent military action.

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Russell 2000 closes at all-time highs

[8:49 am] Russell 2000 logged a second straight all-time high overnight and on track for a second weekly gain.

Russell 2000 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] Bit of a dicey overnight session, though plenty of solid takeaways from high-profile earnings.

ASX 200 futures are down 15pts (-0.18%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

• Major US benchmarks higher, but struggled to hold on to intraday highs

• Russell 2000 (+0.86%) closed at fresh all-time highs

• Oil prices dipped ~3% as Trump comments eased concerns of a near-term US strike on Iran

• Solid earnings from TSMC (Q4 beat and 1Q26 guidance beat), Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both rallied on strong investment banking and market revenues