ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 14th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, August 14. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we've got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

QBE delivers ROE well above target as capital efficiency drive continues

[9:13 am] QBE reported a 1H26 ROE of 17.7%, comfortably above its 15%+ medium-term target, alongside further favourable prior-year claims development and a completed buyback.

• Adjusted NPAT up 4% to US$1,033m

• GWP up 6% (constant currency) to US$15,137m, in line with the mid-single-digit outlook

• Combined operating ratio of 92.8%, tracking to the ~92.5% FY26 outlook

• Total investment income of US$828m, a 2.3% return

• Interim DPS up 6% to 33 cps (payout ratio 33%, up from 31 cps a year ago)

• PCA multiple of 1.82x (1.78x pro forma post-dividend), within the 1.6-1.8x target range, with the A$450m buyback completed in April

• FY26 outlook: COR of ~92.5% and constant currency GWP growth in the mid-single digits, both reaffirmed.

Company page: QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

Another revival for software stocks

[9:05 am] The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF rallied 3.1% overnight, closing in on the recent 1 June high.

iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF daily chart (Source: TradingView)

The rally was largely inspired by a potential takeover for Workday, as well as better-than-expected results from names like Atlassian (+35.3% on 7-Aug).

The S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index (which is mostly software) is also testing the 2 June high and trading just below the key 200-day moving average.

S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index daily chart (Source: TradingView)

The local tech index has underperformed other software benchmarks by a wide margin, largely due to sharp declines from Wisetech (Founder Richard White overhang) and Xero (paid peak multiples for US software firm Melio).

Nevertheless, something to look out for as the sector continues to recover against a backdrop of better-than-expected earnings.

Adyen soars most in a year after acquisitions lift sales outlook

[8:56 am] The Dutch payments group raised its full-year revenue growth guidance as its first-ever acquisitions began to contribute.

• Shares rose as much as 12% to €1,018, the biggest intraday gain since April 2025, though the stock is still down 26% year-to-date

• Net revenue up 19% to €1.3bn for the six months through June vs €1.29bn ests (1% beat)

• Adjusted EBITDA of €641.5m vs €645m ests (1% miss)

• FY26 net revenue growth guidance lifted to 21-23% on a constant currency basis, up from 20-22%, including contributions from acquisitions Talon.One and Orb

Source: Bloomberg

Workday jumps 17% on report Silver Lake in talks to buy

[8:55 am] The HR and finance software provider surged after Reuters reported private equity firm Silver Lake is in takeover talks.

• Workday shares jumped 17.7% to US$206.45

• Silver Lake has reportedly been in discussions for several months, though there is no guarantee a deal eventuates

• Workday has pushed its own AI tools, with CEO Aneel Bhusri arguing no amount of "vibe coding" will produce an HR or ERP system

• May-quarter results eased some fears, with sales up 13% and a better-than-expected outlook for the current quarter

Signs the war-driven supply squeeze is easing across oil and fertiliser

[8:52 am] Fresh Middle Eastern crude is finally reaching US shores and Indian urea offers have dropped, both pointing to a loosening of the wartime supply crunch even as the Strait of Hormuz stays largely blocked.

• At least 9 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude are set to arrive at US ports in August, a sharp spike but still only around half the average pre-conflict level

• US commercial crude inventories sit near an eight-year low after the US exported at a record pace of up to 6 million barrels a day early in the conflict, though inventories rose 17.4 million barrels last week, the second-largest build ever

• Some Saudi cargoes are rerouting via the Mediterranean from ports like Yanbu to avoid Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, adding cost and transit time

• India, a top urea importer, received offers 12% below its June purchase price, with west coast bids between US$393.65 and US$435 a ton versus as much as US$959 a ton paid in April, nearly double pre-war levels

• The easing signals softer near-term price pressure, though durability is uncertain given the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and US-Iran peace talks stay stalled

Court lets Trump keep tariffs on low-cost imports

[8:49 am] A US trade court upheld the removal of the "de minimis" exemption, handing the administration a win on a trade agenda that has faced repeated legal setbacks.

• The US Court of International Trade refused to disturb executive orders lifting the exemption for goods valued at US$800 or less

• The three-judge panel found the move was allowed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, distinguishing it from Trump's global tariffs the Supreme Court struck down earlier this year

Korean stocks rise 22% in 10 days as chip rally regains steam

[8:47 am] A revival in the AI trade pushed South Korean equities into a technical bull market, reversing last month's historic rout.

• Kospi gained 3.6% on Thursday, extending its rebound from a 30 July low to around 22%, with Samsung and SK Hynix each jumping nearly 5% or more

• The index is up more than 60% year-to-date on a retail-driven rally, yet remains about 25% below its late June peak after a 22% slump in July, its worst month since the global financial crisis

• Sentiment turned on evidence of continued heavy AI spending by global Big Tech in latest results, plus expectations Samsung and SK Hynix will soon unveil shareholder return plans

• Regulatory curbs on single-stock leveraged ETFs and lower margin debt have stabilised the market, with a volatility gauge at its lowest since April

• Foreign investors bought on Thursday but remain net sellers year-to-date, having pulled more than US$100bn, though some funds are returning as valuations cheapened

Source: Bloomberg

Costliest US 30-year bond sale since 2001 flags investor unease

[8:47 am] The Treasury sold long bonds at the highest yield in a quarter of a century, underscoring the price investors now demand to fund a swelling deficit.

• US$25bn 30-year sale cleared at 5.216%, the highest yield since 2001, following a 10-year auction the day prior that drew the steepest cost at that tenor since 2007

• Demand was decent but slightly lagged, with the bid-to-cover ratio at 2.39 versus a 2.36 average for the past six comparable auctions

• Interest on public debt is a key deficit driver, with the fiscal year-to-date tally at US$1.17 trillion, up 15% partly on higher Treasury yields

• Fitch kept its AA+ US rating but warned the fiscal deficit would widen in 2026 on tax cuts and tariff rebates

Source: Bloomberg

Emerging-market stocks hit one-month high as AI trade roars back

[8:37 am] A resurgent AI rally lifted developing-world equities for a second straight session, even as currencies stayed mixed on Middle East risk.

• MSCI EM equity index gained 0.8% to its highest level in more than a month, aided by gains in the S&P 500 as US price pressures eased

• Asian tech led the charge, with South Korea's Kospi entering a technical bull market and up around 22% from its 30 July low, driven by memory names Samsung and SK Hynix

• EM currencies were mixed as early gains faded, with MSCI's EM currency gauge little changed as the dollar pared its decline

• Latin America diverged, with the region's MSCI index down 0.5% as Brazil's real slid on election risk

Source: Bloomberg

Foreign investors flee Brazil stocks at fastest pace since 2021

[8:35 am] Election jitters and fiscal worries drove the sharpest single-day foreign exodus from Brazilian equities in over five years.

• Foreign investors pulled more than 4.7 billion reais (US$906m) out of the market on 11 August, the fastest daily pace since 2021

• Month-to-date foreign outflows have topped 11.9 billion reais, approaching the 14.9 billion reais pulled in all of May

• JPMorgan cut Brazil to neutral from overweight, saying it would rather stay sidelined than pay for uncertainty

• The downgrade triggered a broad selloff, with the Ibovespa down 2.5% and the real off 1%, the worst among emerging-market peers on the day

• The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) fell 3.4% and saw its largest weekly withdrawal since 2013, losing US$329m in the week through Wednesday

Source: Bloomberg

Good morning!

[8:06 am] ASX 200 futures are down 40 pts (-0.37%). Here's what happened overnight:

• S&P 500 closed at record highs and briefly traded above 7,800 for the first time, Nasdaq led in a relatively tech-led session

  • S&P 500 (+0.65%), Nasdaq (+0.81%), Dow (+0.13%), Russell 2000 (+0.24%)

• US July PPI was flat month-on-month vs. expectations of a 0.2% increase, core CPI rose 0.2% vs. 0.3% est, which helped ease the likelihood of a September Fed hike to under 40%

• Software and memory names headlined gains, Workday surged 17.7% on a report Silver Lake is circling a buyout, while other household names like Atlassian, Intuit, Adobe, Salesforce and more all rose 4-6%

• Breadth was still very strong, with only four sectors lower (Materials fell 0.73%, while Energy, Healthcare and Industrials both closed just shy of breakeven) and the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.75%) recorded its third straight all-time high

• Oil slipped for a second straight session, with Brent down 1.8% to US$86.9 a barrel after OPEC and the IEA both cut 2026 demand forecasts