ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 12th September

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, September 12. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 flat for the week

[2:05 pm] The ASX 200 is on track to finish the week around breakeven, not a terrible outcome given all the moving pieces.

Solid session today, with the index up 0.68%, though off session highs of 0.94%. Breadth was strong, with 141 S&P/ASX 200 constituents (71%) trading higher. Heavyweights sectors Materials (+1.4%) and Financials (+1.2%) turning up, and beneath the hood, a few risk/growth-y names trending higher or bouncing, notably Droneshield (+4.5%) and Guzman Y Gomez (+4.3%).

Looking ahead, next week brings the Fed's interest rate decision, with markets currently pricing in a 92.5% likelihood of a 25bp cut (and just a 7.5% chance of 50bps). I wonder if the market will continue to trend higher off the back of this, or will it turn into a "sell the news" kind of catalyst. That's it for Friday, have a good weekend!

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Polynovo reports interim study

[1:53 pm] Polynovo interim study shows faster healing in large diabetic foot wounds with NovoSorb BTM.

At 12 months, 66.7% of wounds treated with NovoSorb BTM achieved complete healing compared with 56.5% for the standard of care. While numerically higher, the difference was not statistically significant (P=0.48), meaning it could be due to chance.

A subanalysis of wounds greater than 10cm2 showed a clear and statistically significant improvement with NovoSorb BTM. Healing time averaged 191 days for BTM vs 319 days for SOC, more than four months faster.

The announcement was released at 1:11 pm AEST and Polynovo briefly popped 5.1% on the news but currently down 3.7% ($1.40). The P value (0.48) may be the key drag as the outcome of the study is not statistically significant.

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Gold still pushing record highs

[12:48 pm] Gold is eyeing another record close, currently up 0.39% to US$3,647/oz.

Local gold names are broadly higher, with the S&P/All Ords Gold Index up 1.3% to fresh all-time highs.

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Woodside undercuts recent low

[11:35 am] Woodside opened flat but currently down 2.1% ($24.54), undercutting both recent lows and the key 200-day moving average.

Oil prices fell 1.8% overnight to US$66.32 a barrel and down a further 0.4% to $66.02 in today's session.

Woodside daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

The IEA’s latest monthly report warns that global oil markets face a swelling surplus, as supply growth, driven by OPEC+ rollbacks and robust non-OPEC output, continues to outpace demand.

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CSL bounces from no man's land

[11:30 am] Healthcare (+1.3%) is the best performing sector today, led by a 2.0% move from CSL ($209.94).

However, this move provides little relief for the biotech giant, which is attempting to recover from a brutal 24% decline since 18 August. The stock suffered its worst one-day selloff on record, plunging 16.8% on 19 August following disappointing FY25 results and weaker-than-expected FY26 guidance. It has since struggled to establish any meaningful bounce or bottom.

CSL daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade

[10:32 am] Looks like a bit of risk appetite coming back, with names like Droneshield, Pinnacle and GQG (leveraged to equity markets), Life360 topping the leaderboards.

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ASX 200 higher, miners rally

[10:30 am] A pretty strong open for the ASX 200, up 0.77% to the highest level since 3 September. Heavyweights Materials (+1.0%) and Financial (+0.9%) leading the charge, with the Big Four Banks and iron ore miners broadly higher.

ASX 200 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Aluminium breaking out to 6-month highs

[9:40 am] Aluminium prices are on the move, up 2.1% overnight to the highest level since mid-May.

Aluminium daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

At the same time, Alcoa is starting to move out of its recent trading range, on the cusp of a fresh six-month high as well.

NYSE-listed Aloca daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Tower upgrades FY25 guidance (again)

[9:11 am] Tower, a New Zealand-based insurer, may have set a record for the most earnings guidance upgrades in a short period. Over just 19 months, the company raised its earnings expectations eight times.

Though today's announcement raised FY25 NPAT expectations, but tempered gross written premium and expense guidances.

• NPAT to be between $110-110m vs. prior guidance of $70-80m

• NPAT uplift reflects the lack of large catastrophe events recorded in September, which will see ~$31m returned to underlying NPAT at year end

• GWP growth guidance has been lowered to between 2% to 3% from the previously advised "mid-single digit" growth. This is due to a higher number of new, lower-risk policies and more competitive pricing in the New Zealand market.

• Management expense ratio (MER) guidance has been revised to around 31%, up from the previous target of less than 31%. This reflects the lower GWP flowing through the ratio and continued investment in technology and growth initiatives.

NPAT upgrade sounds good, though GWP and MER revisions could offset some of the optimism.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Tower (TWR)

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Leo Lithium flags automatic delisting

[9:03 am] Leo Lithium is set to be delisted from the ASX on 22 September, after its shares were suspended for two years on September 19, 2023.

The company has been searching for a new project to satisfy compliance requirements and resume trading ever since it sold its remaining 40% interest in the Goulamina Lithium Project to Ganfeng in July 2024.

"Despite a thorough investigation of several acquisition opportunities over the past months, the Company has not secured terms of a transaction that it considers would be in the best interests of shareholders and so does not believe it will be in a position to complete an acquisition during this quarter," the company flagged in today's announcement.

With no acquisition in sight, Leo Lithium plans to return the $171.2 million in proceeds from the Goulamina sale to its shareholders.

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US government shutdown odds on the rise

[8:59 am] The risk of a US government shutdown is resurfacing as the 30 September fiscal year-end deadline looms, with Republicans pushing for a stopgap funding bill but Democrats signaling resistance amid broader policy clashes.

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Yields fall, long-end remains a concern

[8:46 am] Bond yields continued to fall overnight, with the US 10-year yield now down 24 bps in the last seven sessions to 4.02%. Front-end declines reflected mounting Fed rate-cut expectations on soft labor data, while long-end strength was tempered by global yield pressures and debt concerns.

Though the yield curve continues to steepen, with the 2-year and 30-year spread sitting at approximately 115 bps, highlighting ongoing stagflation risks and rising deficit/debt concerns.

US 10-year bond yield daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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US CPI relatively in-line, initial jobless claims jump

[8:41 am] August CPI data showed inflation broadly in line with expectations on the core measure but hotter on the headline, while jobless claims surged to their highest level since 2021, reinforcing the Fed’s focus on labour market weakness ahead of September’s meeting.

• August core CPI up 0.3% month-on-month, in-line with consensus

• Annualised core up 3.1%, in-line with consensus and previous month’s reading

• Headline CPI up 0.4% month-on-month vs. consensus for a 0.3% increase

• Annualised headline CPI up 2.9%, in-line with consensus but accelerating from July’s 2.7%

• Index for shelter up 0.4% and the largest contributor for the headline increase

• Inflationary segments include airfares (+5.9%), gasoline (+1.9%), used vehicles (+1.0%), apparel (+0.5%) and food (+0.5%)

In parallel with the inflation data, US initial jobless claims jumped to 263,000 vs. consensus for a 231,000 increase and the highest level since October 2021.

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Anglo-Teck merger could trigger wave of M&A

[8:39 am] The $53 billion Anglo American-Teck Resources merger is being viewed as a watershed moment for the mining sector, potentially unleashing a new wave of consolidation after years of stalled deals.

With copper supply tightening and its role becoming more critical in electric vehicles and data centers, rivals like BHP, Rio Tinto, and Glencore now face heightened pressure to act quickly or risk falling behind.

• Anglo shares rallied on deal news, signaling investor enthusiasm for sector-wide consolidation.

• BHP confronts declining copper output and costly projects, creating urgency to secure growth options.

• Rio Tinto, despite its lithium push, remains short on copper exposure and may need to pivot aggressively.

• Glencore, lacking firepower for solo bids after its failed Teck pursuit, could pursue partnerships or mergers.

• RBC highlights a possible Glencore-Rio combination, creating a $155bn mining giant with massive copper and iron ore share, though Chinese antitrust and synergy concerns pose hurdles.

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Good morning!

[8:25 am] ASX 200 futures are up 43pts (+0.48%) after a strong lead from Wall Street, where the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all climbed to fresh all-time highs.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.