Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise + S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all notch fresh all-time highs

ASX 200 futures are up 43pts (+0.48%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all climbed to fresh all-time highs, while the Russell 2000 is within an arms reach of its 2021 record high

• US inflation was largely in-line with expectations, though the month-on-month headline print was slightly hotter-than-expected

• Market's CPI reaction confirms that recent labour market weakness has all but locked in a 25 bp cut later this month, with employment data now the key focus

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 trended higher to close at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher and closed near best levels

• S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq both set fresh all-time highs, Russell 2000 within 1% of its 2021 record high

• Today’s big story – US CPI largely in-line, market reaction confirms focus on labour market, 2-and-10 year yields even edged lower though concerns over long-end persist

• $53bn Anglo American-Teck Resources merger could unleash mining sector consolidation wave (RT)

• US share buybacks could surge by $600 billion over the coming years, says JPMorgan (BBG)

• US dollar steadies, but bearish move may persist with some bets on further losses (RT)

• Elevated G7 sovereign debt levels and an inability to roll out credible deficit reduction placing upward pressure on long-term yields (RT)

• China capital flows exceed trade flows for the first time, underpinned by purchases of stocks and bonds (BBG)

• IEA lifts oil supply growth forecast to 2.7m barrels per day, indicating larger surplus ahead (WSJ)

STOCKS

• Oracle's 36% surge marks largest one day gain since 1992 (BBG)

• OpenAI signs contract with Oracle to purchase $300bn in computing power over five years (WSJ)

• Hyundai's Georgia battery plant construction delayed as worker shortages persist after US immigration raid (BBG)

• Apple analyst sentiment lowest in over five years as AI worries and uninspired new products weigh on outlook (BBG)

• Barrick Mining to sell its last Canadian gold mine for up to $1.1bn, shifting focus to copper (BBG)

TARIFFS

• EU unlikely to heed US calls to impose tariffs on India and China over Russian crude purchases (CNBC)

• Mexico planning to tariffs of up to 50% on certain imports from China and other Asian countries (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB keeps rates on hold and traders rule out more rate cuts (BBG)

• BOJ likely to hike by January, though October favored but conviction wanes (BBG)

• RBNZ Governor Hawkesby reaffirms projection for cash rate to fall to around 2.50% from current 3.00% (BBG)

• BOK sees need for further rate cuts to ease downward pressure on economic growth (RT)

US CPI

• August core CPI up 0.3% month-on-month, in-line with consensus

• Annualised core up 3.1%, in-line with consensus and previous month’s reading

• Headline CPI up 0.4% month-on-month vs. consensus for a 0.3% increase

• Annualised headline CPI up 2.9%, in-line with consensus but accelerating from July’s 2.7%

• Index for shelter up 0.4% and the largest contributor for the headline increase

• Inflationary segments include airfares (+5.9%), gasoline (+1.9%), used vehicles (+1.0%), apparel (+0.5%) and food (+0.5%)

ECONOMY

• UK economy to outpace Germany, France and Italy thanks to robust services sector (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• It's tumbleweeds out there. Have a good weekend.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Resource strength: Very strong overnight session for resources, overnight ETFs like rare earth/strategic metals (REMX), copper miners (COPX), gold miners (GDX) all firmly higher, BHP ADRs also up 1.8%.

• More chop: A solid market reaction to a relatively in-line CPI print, minus the headline m/m figure. Looks like rate cut expectations are firmly focused on the labour market. ASX set to open higher, but remain trapped between the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Let's see if the market can find some more strength ahead of next week's central bank decisions.

BROKER MOVES

Broker data is currently pending.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 12 Sep: Ariadne Australia (ARA) – $0.005, CAR Group (CAR) – $0.415, Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) – $0.032, Experience Co (EXP) – $0.003, G8 Education (GEM) – $0.02, Wisetech Global (WTC) – $0.119

• Mon 15 Sep:  Alfabs Australia (AAL) – $0.017, Credit Corp Group (CCP) – $0.36, Data#3 (DTL) – $0.15, EUROZ Hartleys Group (EZL) – $0.035, Fleetwood (FWD) – $0.135, Guzman Y Gomez (GYG) – $0.126, Kelsian Group (KLS) – $0.095, L1 Long Short Fund (LSF) – $0.065, Lovisa (LOV) – $0.27, Pengana Capital Group (PCG) – $0.02, Qube (QUB) – $0.057, Ramelius Resources (RMS) – $0.05, Saunders International (SND) – $0.003, Sports Entertainment Group (SEG) – $0.01

• Tue 16 Sep: Duratec (DUR) – $0.025, Qantas (QAN) – $0.264

• Wed 17 Sep: Auckland International Airport (AIA) – $0.063, Count (CUP) – $0.028, Flight Centre (FLT) – $0.29, Inghams Group (ING) – $0.08, Maas Group (MGH) – $0.035, Supply Network (SNL) – $0.38, Service Stream (SSM) – $0.03

• Thu 18 Sep: a2 Milk Company (A2M) – $0.089, Centrepoint Alliance (CAF) – $0.018, Cochlear (COH) – $2.15, Embelton (EMB) – $0.20, Lycopodium (LYL) – $0.25, Macmahon Holdings (MAH) – $0.01, Mader Group (MAD) – $0.048, NRW Holdings (NWH) – $0.095, PWR Holdings (PWH) – $0.02, SKS Technologies (SKS) – $0.05, South32 (S32) – $0.04, Tourism Holdings Rentals (THL) – $0.036

• Fri 19 Sep: Latitude Group (LFS) – $0.04, Vita Life Sciences (VLS) – $0.045

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: 360 Capital Group (TGP), Acumentis Group (ACU), Heartland Group (HGH), Ignite (IGN), REA Group (REA), Step One Clothing (STP)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 4:00 pm: UK GDP (Jul)