ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 12th June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, June 12. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Hedgeye flags ResMed as new short with 30% downside on GLP-1 risk

[9:43 am] Hedgeye analyst Tom Tobin has added ResMed as a short idea, arguing GLP-1s will erode the sleep apnea TAM and pressure consensus estimates.

• Hedgeye sees at least another 30% downside on top of the ~30% fall from the 2025 peak

• Thesis hinges on cheaper, oral and multi-condition GLP-1s shrinking the sleep apnea TAM at the margin

• Tobin argues ResMed's growth algorithm leans heavily on a new-patient funnel that is already narrowing

• Overweight and obese cohorts, identified as ResMed's real incremental TAM, are the same population GLP-1s are now shrinking

• Consensus estimates have largely held, leaving room for downgrades and a lower multiple regime

Company page: ResMed (RMD)

ANZ NZ CEO Antonia Watson to retire

[9:42 am] ANZ Bank New Zealand CEO Antonia Watson will retire at the end of FY26, with current Chief Risk Officer Ben Kelleher to step into the role.

• Watson finishes on 30 September 2026 after 17 years at ANZ NZ, including six as CEO and Group Executive

• Kelleher has been ANZ NZ Chief Risk Officer for more than two years, previously serving as Managing Director, Personal Banking for five years

Company page: ANZ Group (ANZ)

Brazilian Rare Earths defines +9km rare earth corridor at Velhinhas

[9:36 am] Brazilian Rare Earths has unveiled a district-scale exploration corridor south of its Monte Alto deposit in Bahia, supported by airborne geophysics and early diamond drilling results.

• Airborne survey defines more than 9km of cumulative rare earth exploration trends across four parallel north-northeast zones, beginning ~5km south of Monte Alto

• Ultra-high-grade surface samples returned grades of 39.6%, 20.9% and 13.5% TREO

• Reconnaissance diamond drilling returned 19.6% TREO, 33,607ppm NdPr, 1,463ppm Dy₂O₃, 248ppm Tb₄O₇, 7,431ppm Y₂O₃ and 1,087ppm U₃O₈

• Mineralisation includes a suite of critical minerals spanning NdPr, DyTb, yttrium, niobium, scandium, tantalum and uranium

• Additional diamond rig mobilised, with a +5,000m drilling campaign now underway to test priority geophysical anomalies and extend bedrock mineralisation

Company page: Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE)

Monash IVF cuts FY26 guidance on weaker Australian ART market

[9:19 am] Monash IVF has downgraded FY26 underlying NPAT guidance to $17-18 million, well below consensus, citing softer Australian fertility market activity.

• FY26 underlying NPAT guided to $17-18m vs prior $20m and ests of $20.3m (14% miss at midpoint)

• Australian ART market stimulated cycle volumes down 4.7% on a rolling three-month basis to end-April, with weakness continuing through May and June

  • ART = Assisted Reproductive Technology.

• National market share lifted 1.0ppt to 20.1% on a rolling three-month basis, with notable gains in some states

• International operations volumes expected to be materially higher year-on-year in H2

• Cost and operational efficiency initiatives flagged at the half to contribute more meaningfully in FY27 given timing of implementation

The company guided to FY26 NPAT of $20 million just four months ago, so new guidance reflects a 12.5% downgrade (at the midpoint) after a relatively short span of time. The stock is down 8% year-to-date and flat in the last twelve months (though ~55% off May 2024 record highs).

Company page: Monash IVF Group (MVF)

Commodities broadly higher

[9:08 am] Commodities traded sharply higher overnight, bouncing from sharp declines over the past 5-6 sessions.

BofA warns elevated growth expectations point to weaker forward returns

[9:00 am] Bank of America research flags that today's exceptionally optimistic long-term earnings growth forecasts have historically preceded weaker equity returns, raising the risk of disappointment from current levels.

Fertiliser prices unwind Iran war spike

[8:58 am] Urea prices have retraced sharply toward pre-war levels as supply chains adjust to the Strait of Hormuz disruption, according to Bloomberg.

• New Orleans granular urea spot fell to US$453.50 per short ton, the lowest since early February

• India's latest tenders saw offers at US$530 per tonne, down 44% from April highs

• Relief driven by seasonal demand dips, China restarting exports, and faster-than-expected supply chain rerouting

• Risks remain from damaged infrastructure and uncertainty heading into future planting cycles

OpenAI weighs token price cuts ahead of Anthropic IPO

[8:53 am] OpenAI is considering significant cost reductions for its services in anticipation of similar moves from Anthropic, hinting at a pricing war between the two as both head toward IPOs.

• Deliberations remain early with nothing decided, but cuts under consideration include lowering per-token pricing if Anthropic moves first

• OpenAI filed confidentially for its IPO this week and was last valued at $852bn in March, with Anthropic having lined up Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs after raising at a $965bn valuation last month

• Corporate AI budgets under pressure, with Uber capping internal use of tools like Claude Code after blowing through its annual AI spend and Walmart restricting employee access to its in-house agent

• Both companies also face mounting competition from Microsoft and Alphabet, raising the stakes of any sustained pricing battle

Source: Bloomberg

Oil's puzzle: Why the Iran shock hasn't broken the market

[8:51 am] Bloomberg's Javier Blas argues 10 structural and circumstantial factors have kept Brent below US$100 despite the largest supply shock on record, with China the single biggest swing factor.

• China imported 6.7m b/d of crude by tanker in May, down nearly 40% on the 2025 average, with the 4m b/d drop equivalent to combined German and French consumption and possibly reflecting strategic reserve draws

• Demand destruction running at 3-4m b/d mostly in petrochemicals, with Asian consumers switching to coal and firewood and Indian cooking fuel supplies running dry

• Around 7m b/d still leaves the Persian Gulf, with bypass pipelines through Saudi Arabia and the UAE moving 5m b/d and another 2m b/d shuttled by tanker around the Strait with beacons off

• IEA's record 400m barrel release is flowing at 2.5m b/d but US reserves sit at 40-year lows, with commercial stockpiles potentially hitting critical levels by August

• Market was already oversupplied by 3-4m b/d before the war thanks to US shale and OPEC+ hikes, while American continent production is up 2m b/d y/y with Brazil up 20% to a record and Guyana, US and China also at all-time highs

• Trump's near-40 deal-is-close social media posts have repeatedly knocked prices up to 10%, while deeper options market liquidity (call volumes up 8x since 2016) has reduced reliance on outright futures buying as a hedge

Source: Bloomberg

World Bank cuts global growth to weakest since pandemic

[8:45 am] The World Bank cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5% citing the Iran war's energy shock, warning growth could slow to as little as 1.3% under a severe scenario.

• 2026 global growth lowered to 2.5% from 2.9% in 2025, the weakest since the pandemic, with two-thirds of economies seeing downward revisions and headline inflation forecast at 4%

• Baseline assumes Brent averages US$94/bbl in 2026 (up 36% on 2025) with worst energy disruptions abating by end-July, growth slips to 2.1% at US$115/bbl and as low as 1.3% if financial market stress compounds the shock

• Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan growth slashed 2.7ppt to 1.6%, with UAE cut to 2.4% from a prior 5% forecast and Turkey trimmed to 2.8%

• Developing economy growth seen at a post-pandemic low of 3.6%, down from 4.4% in 2025, with the 2020s described as a "lost decade" for dozens of poorer nations

• Eurozone pegged at 0.8% in 2026 (from 1.4%), Japan 0.7% (from 1.1%), China 4.2% (down 0.2ppt), US held at 2.2%, India remains the fastest-growing major economy at 6.6%

ECB delivers first hike since 2023 as Iran war stokes inflation

[8:44 am] The ECB hiked rates by 25 bps to 2.25% in response to energy-driven inflation pressures from the US-Iran conflict, lifting its inflation forecasts and trimming growth.

• Headline inflation now expected to average 3% in 2026, cooling to 2.3% in 2027 and 2% in 2028, with the revision driven by higher energy prices feeding into food, goods and services

• Growth forecasts cut to 0.8% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028, reflecting a more pronounced commodity, real income and confidence hit from the war

• Lagarde flagged upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth, with the Governing Council not pre-committing to a particular rate path

• Eurozone inflation rose to 3.2% in May with Q1 GDP growth at just 0.1%

Trump flip-flops on Iran strikes as deal talks intensify

[8:42 am] Markets looked through another volatile day of Mideast brinkmanship, with Trump first threatening fresh strikes before cancelling them and flagging an imminent agreement.

• Trump initially said Iran would be hit "very hard tonight" and floated US control of Iranian oil infrastructure including the Kharg Island export terminal, before backtracking in the early afternoon and saying main points have been "approved by all parties"

• Equities rallied and crude eased on the reversal, consistent with the market's pattern of treating ceasefire threats as noise and pricing any MOU as a wait-and-see outcome

• Key sticking points remain unresolved including sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation oversight, and the fate of Iran's highly enriched uranium, with Israel's Hezbollah operations in Lebanon a further wild card

• Reuters reports MOU-related messages continue to be exchanged with possible release of Iran's frozen funds in focus, while a deal anchored on a no-nuclear-weapons pledge and lengthy enrichment pause is seen as attainable

US stocks rally as Trump pulls Iran strikes

[8:39 am] Wall Street surged on signs of an Iran ceasefire deal, with risk-on positioning across equities, bonds, and small-caps.

• S&P 500 up 1.7% and Nasdaq up 2.5%, the S&P's best session since 8 April, after Trump cancelled tonight's planned bombing of Iran and Tehran approved a draft ceasefire extension

• Russell 2000 led gains up 3.02% with VIX down around 12%, semis, memory, networking, tech hardware, industrials and materials all outperforming

• Yields down 8-10 bps as Fed tightening expectations eased, dollar index down 0.3%, Brent settled 6.1% lower to US$89.14 a barrel

• Oracle Q4 beat and guided ahead but flagged $70bn capex for FY27 and plans to raise $40bn in additional capital, with reports OpenAI is weighing steep token price cuts to win customers back from Anthropic

• May headline PPI up 1.1% m/m vs 0.7% ests, but core PPI rose just 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% ests

• Markets cautious on follow-through given prior failed deals, with the naval blockade staying in place until signing and Israel-Lebanon dynamics still unresolved ahead of tomorrow's $75bn SpaceX IPO

Good morning!

[8:32 am] ASX 200 futures are up 146 pts (+1.68%)

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• S&P 500 jumped 1.7% and the Nasdaq 2.5% after Trump called off Iran strikes and signalled a deal is close, sparking a broad risk-on bounce

• VIX fell 12% as the Russell 2000 led gains up 3.02%, with tech, industrials and materials driving the turnaround

• Most commodities bounced more than 3%, the ECB delivered its first rate hike since 2023, and SpaceX prices its $1.75tn Nasdaq mega-IPO