Weekend Wrap: A 500% one-day rally, June seasonalty and Aussie stagflation

Hi there!

A lot of chatter about IPOs this week, with SpaceX set to make its Nasdaq debut on 12 June (while Anthropic and OpenAI remain in the early stages).

The loss-making SpaceX wants the market to pay 70x forward revenue, roughly 50% above the most expensive stock in the entire S&P 500 (Palantir, at approx 47x). The thing is, Palantir's revenue is projected to grow just shy of 50% a year over the next three years. SpaceX is sitting closer to 15-20%.

But look, this is where the analysts will tell you valuation is more art than science. After all, we're talking about asteroid mining, colonising Mars and time travel.

Here's one of the best (and not-so-serious) breakdowns of SpaceX's valuation.

Let's dive in.

Bulls bounced, with the bull-bear spread improving 14.1 percentage points to -3.9%. That moves the spread from the 10th percentile to the 26th percentile. It's nonetheless the 6th consecutive net-bearish week, the longest negative-spread since we started this survey in May 2025.

Over the next three months, do you expect the Australian stock market to be:

• Bullish

• Neutral

• Bearish

Everyone talks about “selling in May” and flags September as the market’s worst month – but June is quietly one of the worst too. Throw in a fragile domestic backdrop, US-Iran uncertainty and stretched valuations, and things look pretty downbeat.

• Since 1980, the ASX 200 has averaged a 0.40% decline in June, with a 43% positive hit rate

• This makes June the second-worst month for performance and the only one positive less than 50% of the time

• Total returns data since 2001 averages a 0.09% June decline with a 60% positive hit rate, still equal second-worst for positive returns

• Recent Junes have run slightly above historical average, with the past three Junes (2023-2025) all positive

This is probably one of the most wild announcements and share price moves I’ve seen in a while.

• DXN was a $6.6 million market cap company, which builds modular, prefabricated data centres (basically a data centre in a box) that can be shipped to site and deployed quickly

• On Wednesday, the company announced an $8.8 million binding contract to design, manufacture and commission a 1.36MW AI HPC Modular Data Centre for a US-listed global neo-cloud operator

• This is a big deal because the contract was worth more than its entire market cap!

• DXN projected cumulative follow-on revenue opportunities in excess of US$200m over the next 1-2 years, subject to successful delivery

The stock opened the session 28.5% higher to 2.7 cents … and finished the session 590% higher to 14.5 cents. It experienced a slight pullback on Thursday, then finished the week with a 40% gain to 18 cents.

The only criticism I have here is that the ASX should probably ask "hey, please explain this cumulative $200 million opportunity that's worth 33x times your company".

Investopedia defines stagflation as the simultaneous appearance of slow growth, high unemployment, and rising prices in an economy.

I don't know about you, but when I look at the latest economic data ... it looks a touch stagflationary.

• April unemployment was 4.5%, up from 4.3% in March and above market expectations of 4.3%. This marks the highest unemployment print since late 2021

• April CPI was up 4.2% year-on-year, down from 4.6% in March following the reduction of the fuel excise (from 52.6c to 20.6c at the beginning of the month)

• April trimmed mean ticked up to 3.4% and services inflation was at 3.5%, all above the RBA's 2-3% band

• Wednesday's Q1 GDP was up 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 2.5% year-on-year, below market expectations of 0.5% and 2.7% respectively

• This week the Fair Work Commission also lifted the minimum wage by 6.0% and modern award wages by 4.75%