The ASX 200 selloff in 10 charts
The ASX 200 has signaled its first 'death cross' since September 2023. Plus charts covering sectors, valuations, sentiment and more
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Source: Shutterstock
KEY POINTS
- The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 4.4%, signaling a potential “death cross” as the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day, hinting at a bearish shift amid Trump’s tariffs and China’s retaliation
- Consumer Staples is the only ASX sector with positive YTD performance, reflecting a flight to safety and defensive pockets of the market
- The median non-resource stock on the ASX has seen its price-to-earnings ratio fall about two points to 17.9x, but still above long-run averages
Global equities faced a sharp exodus on Monday as investors liquidated their equity market exposures, driven by escalating fallout from Trump’s tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures.
The S&P/ASX 200 tumbled roughly 4.4%, clawing back from an early 6.5% drop but still poised for its worst day since March 2020.
As markets unravel at a relentless pace, here’s a breakdown of the chaos, in just ten key charts.
ASX 200 Signals a ‘Death Cross’
The brutal selloff has triggered a ominous technical milestone: the 50-day moving average (green) has undercut the 200-day moving average (blue), forming what’s known as a “death cross.”
This shift marks a transition from bullish to bearish territory, signaling that recent price momentum has weakened dramatically against the longer-term trend. It’s a hint that selling pressure is overpowering buying interest.
ASX 200's 50-day moving average (green) undercuts the 200-day (blue) | Source: TradingView
Historically, this isn’t a frequent occurrence — the ASX 200 has trended upward or sideways for much of the past decade. A glance at the chart below reveals the four most recent death crosses — late 2023, mid-2022, March 2020, and late 2018 — all followed by sustained downward pressure.
ASX 200's 50-day moving average (green) undercuts the 200-day (blue) | Source: TradingView
Investors Flee to Safety
Amid the turmoil, the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index stands alone as the only sector with a positive year-to-date performance, making it the year’s best performing sector. Leadership from a defensive sector like Staples, however, is a red flag for market health.
In bullish markets, growth-oriented sectors like Technology or cyclical ones like Materials typically take the lead.
S&P/ASX 200 sector performance as at Monday, 7 April 2025 (Source: Market Index)
Valuations Ease Off Frothy Heights
Market valuations are cooling. According to UBS, the median non-resource stock on the ASX has seen its price-to-earnings ratio fall about two points since February, landing at 17.9 — within 10% of the long-run average. While this retreat pulls valuations back from frothy levels, they’re not yet in “bargain” territory.
Source: UBS
Volatility Spikes
The VIX Index — a gauge of expected 30-day volatility in the S&P/ASX 200 — spiked to 27, reflecting heightened angst and uncertainty among investors
The last time it hit this level was June 2022, when the RBA’s unexpected 50-basis-point rate hike sent the ASX 200 tumbling 11.5% over two weeks.
S&P/ASX 200 VIX Index (Source: TradingView)
Post-VIX spike performance doesn’t inspire confidence. Since 2018, the index has spiked ten times, and average returns have been negative across most timeframes — except at the 24-month mark. This pattern suggests volatility shocks, paired with their catalysts, often leave markets shaky and vulnerable.
S&P/ASX 200 performance after VIX spike (Source: Market Index)
Recession Risks Mount
Recession fears are gaining traction. Over the past week, economists, investment bankers, and analysts have sharply raised their forecasts. JPMorgan’s latest report, titled “There Will Be Blood,” warns of a 60% chance of a global recession in 2025—up from 40%. The highlights of the report include:
The tariffs mark the largest US tax hike since 1968
Tariff shock to be magnified by retaliation, supply chain disruptions and a sentiment shock
Scenario where the rest of the world muddles through a US recession is possible, but less likely than a global downturn
More fiscal and monetary easing expected but will only modestly cushion the shock
Crypto betting site Polymarket, where the odds are live and determined by user supply and demand, peg the chance of a U.S. recession at 64%.
Source: Polymarket
Sentiment Nears Rock Bottom
While the ASX lacks robust investor sentiment data, U.S. indicators suggest a market sitting at extreme pessimism — a potential setup for a bounce. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, which scores market mood from 0 (pure fear) to 100 (pure greed), sits at a staggering 4—one of its lowest readings ever, compared to 12 during the pandemic crash.
Source: CNN
Similarly, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey shows 61.9% of participants as bearish, the third-highest level on record, trailing only October 1990 (67%) and March 2009 (70%) — both deep bear market lows.
Source: AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
