The 10 most overbought and oversold ASX 200 stocks – Week 37

Reporting season has left plenty of stocks stretched in both directions. Here are the ASX 200 names sitting at the extremes, and why they're staying there.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude and speed of recent price changes to assess whether or not a stock is overbought or oversold. An RSI of 70 or above is considered to be overbought, which means the stock is rising too quickly and likely to experience a pullback. Meanwhile, an RSI of 30 or below is considered to be oversold, which means the stock is falling too quickly and is likely to experience a rebound.

Most Overbought ASX 200 Stocks

Ramsay was last week's most overbought stock and keeps pushing higher, even after rallying 13.7% on the day of its FY26 result (27 August), where earnings and dividends topped market expectations.

• Group underlying EBIT up 11.5% to $1,162.2m vs $1,082m ests (7% beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 20.6% to $365.4m, or up 23% in constant currency, with every region growing earnings

• Full year dividend up 13.8% to 91 cps vs 85 cps ests (7% beat)

• FY27 guidance points to further earnings growth and margin improvement in Australia and both UK businesses, with capex falling to $480–520m

It's a reminder that overbought stocks usually get there on a material catalyst (ex-resources), then stay overbought on technical momentum, valuation re-ratings and analyst upgrades. Ansell, CSL and AMP also beat expectations with their FY26 results in August and have kept grinding higher.

Graincorp is one to watch. The stock has found its groove after four guidance downgrades and weaker-than-expected results between November 2025 and May 2026 dragged the share price around 46% lower. It has now rallied almost 30% in two weeks, after the Department of Agriculture lifted its 2026-27 wheat crop forecast to 29.9 million tonnes, around 12% above its previous estimate on the back of strong winter rains.

Data as at Friday, 4 September 2026

Most Oversold ASX 200 Stocks

Downer was last week's most oversold stock and has kept sliding, despite already falling 10.3% on the day of its FY26 result (20 August). The result wasn't all that bad, but the market had no tolerance for qualitative guidance that flagged a larger-than-normal 2H27 skew plus a decline in first half revenue and margins.

• Revenue down 7.5% to $9,744.8m vs $10,158m ests (4.1% miss)

• Underlying NPAT up 11.0% to $293.9m vs $290m ests (1.3% beat)

• Total dividends up 17.3% to 29.2 cps fully franked vs 27.9 cps ests (4.7% beat)

• Work-in-hand up 10% to $38.5bn on $12.2bn of new work, with Facilities up 20.2% and around 90% government-related

• FY27 guidance qualitative only, targeting revenue and earnings growth with margin improvement but a larger-than-normal second half skew and 1H27 below the pcp, against ests of 5% EBITA growth

Another reminder that a material catalyst, in this case weaker-than-expected guidance, works just as hard in the other direction, with the stock de-rating, technicals deteriorating and analysts downgrading.

Data as at Friday, 4 September 2026

Last week's list

Outside the reporting season winners, overbought gold names slipped as gold took a breather. Prices rallied around 15% between 3 and 25 August, then gave back roughly 5%, weighed down by rising bond yields and a firmer US dollar.

Data as at Friday, 28 August 2026 | Prior week (21-Aug) vs. Last week (28-Aug)

Pexa is an interesting one. The stock tumbled 17% on the day of its FY26 result (28 August) and has bounced around 13% since. The result broadly missed market expectations.

• Group revenue up 7% to $406.9m vs $414.8m ests (1.9% miss)

• Group EBITDA up 12% to $151.7m vs $147.0m ests (3.2% beat)

• Group NPATA up 35% to $65.3m

• FY27 revenue guidance of $385–415m sits 6.7% below ests at the midpoint. Management flagged Australian transfer volumes softened in July 2026

• FY27 EBITDA margin guidance of 31.5–33.5% implies $130m at the midpoint, 10.2% below ests

• IPART's draft report proposes a 20% cut to regulated revenue from FY28 with CPI increases thereafter (roughly $70m of revenue). Final report due by 30 September

FY27 guidance was very cautious given the weak property market outlook. Macquarie has stuck with its Outperform rating and $13.90 target, roughly 80% upside, on the view that the 20% price cuts will be partly or fully walked back, or offset by ancillary revenues.

Data as at Friday, 28 August 2026 | Prior week (21-Aug) vs. Last week (28-Aug)