Market Wrap

Morning wrap: Wall Street extends gains, oil struggles, ASX set to rise

Wed 23 Mar 22, 8:27am (AEST)

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ASX Futures (SPI 200) imply the ASX will open 31 points higher, up 0.42%.

US stocks continue to rally after a brief reset on Tuesday, Fed members reiterated a more aggressive stance on interest rates, Russia intensified its attacks across Ukraine, fertiliser prices boom as other commodities ease.

Let’s dive in.

Overnight summary

Tue 22 Mar 22, 9:27pm (AEST)

Name Value Chg %
US Indices
S&P 500 4511.61 +1.13%
Dow Jones 34,807 +0.74%
NASDAQ Comp 14,109 +1.95%
Russell 2000 2,088 +1.08%
Country Indices
Canada 22,074 +0.30%
China 3,260 +0.19%
Germany 14,473 +1.02%
Hong Kong 21,889 +3.15%
India 57,989 +1.22%
Japan 27,224 +1.48%
United Kingdom 7,477 +0.46%
Name Value Chg %
Commodities (USD)
Gold 1,921.50 -0.41%
Iron Ore 150.47 -
Copper 4.71 -0.01%
WTI Oil 111.30 -0.73%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.7465 -0.06%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (AUD) 57,100 +3.08%
Ethereum (AUD) 4,022 +2.64%
Miscellaneous
U.S. 10 Year Treasury 2.373 +2.51%
VIX 23 -2.51%

Stocks

  • Another broad-based rally across Wall Street where 10 out of 11 sectors closed in positive territory

  • As of Friday, the S&P 500 posted four consecutive gains of at least 1%, an occurrence that has only happened four times in the past 85 years

    • Each time, the S&P 500 advanced a median of 17.0% six months later and 27.5% a year later (note: limited sample size) 

  • 63% of US stocks advanced

  • 59% of US stocks trade below their 200-day moving average (60% yesterday, 66% a week ago)

    • This indicates that breath is coming back into the market as stocks rebound back above longer-term moving averages. Slowly but surely, the trend is starting to turn positive

  • Consumer discretionary, financials and tech sectors outperformed the market

  • Energy was the only sector to finish red

  • Alibaba +11% after boosting its share-buyback program to as much as US$25bn

  • Nike +2.24% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings. Revenue was slightly higher compared to a year ago and margins increased as the business continued to progress selling direct to consumers

Economy

  • On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank could deliver hikes of 50 bps in future meetings, spooking equity markets

  • Overnight, St Louis Fed President James Bullard reaffirmed this view, saying “I think faster is better” in an interview with Bloomberg

  • Bullard said that 50 bp hikes should definitely be used as the Fed begins to move rates higher. He believes that pushing interest rates to around 3% “would help turn inflation around”

  • Goldman Sachs now forecasts a 50 bp hike in both May and June, followed by 25 bp hikes at the remaining meetings in 2022

Goldman Interest Rate Expectations
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Commodities 

  • Iron ore prices eased slightly as investors monitored activities at China’s steelmaking hub Tangshan in light of recent covid outbreaks and lockdowns

    • Market participants chose to remain on the sidelines in response to a cloudy demand outlook for downstream steelmakers, according to Fastmarkets 

  • Oil struggled to sustain its Tuesday rally where prices hit highs of US$119 a barrel. Eyes on the potential EU ban on Russian imports, the severity of Chinese lockdowns and prospects of Saudi to raise output 

  • Gold prices continue to chop as safe-haven demand remains muted amid buoyant equity and crypto markets 

 

US Sectors

Tue 22 Mar 22, 9:27pm (AEST)

Sector Chg %
Communication Services +2.01%
Consumer Discretionary +2.45%
Consumer Staples +0.66%
Energy -0.66%
Financials +1.60%
Health Care +0.02%
Sector Chg %
Industrials +0.53%
Information Technology +1.42%
Materials +0.52%
Real Estate +0.05%
Utilities +0.09%

Industry ETFs

Tue 22 Mar 22, 9:27pm (AEST)

Description Last Chg %
Commodities
Aluminum 73.9465 -0.43%
Copper Miners 44.97 +0.47%
Gold 180.67 -0.73%
Lithium & Battery Tech 74.33 +1.88%
Nickel 39.58 -5.76%
Strategic Metals 110.63 +3.53%
Steel 66.99 -0.58%
Silver 23.28 -1.72%
Uranium 26.49 +1.06%
Industrials
Aerospace & Defense 110.6 +1.20%
Global Jets 20.1 +2.24%
Healthcare
Biotechnology 129.23 +1.90%
Cannabis 4.91 +4.28%
Description Last Chg %
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 25.85 +2.82%
Renewables
CleanTech 16.3 +1.96%
Hydrogen 18.59 +3.87%
Solar 75.58 +1.55%
Technology
Cloud Computing 21.41 +2.34%
Cybersecurity 30.4 +2.73%
E-commerce 22.11 +4.39%
Electric Vehicles 26.65 +1.76%
FinTech 31.86 +2.35%
Robotics & AI 29.39 +0.24%
Semiconductor 473.29 +0.55%
Sports Betting/Gaming 20.22 +1.09%
Video Games/eSports 57.85 +2.90%

ASX Sectors to watch

#1 Tech

Tech stocks headlined overnight gains as investors continue to support beaten up growth names.

Notable overnight winners include: 

  • Tesla +7.9%

  • Block +5.2%

  • Etsy +4.2%

  • Affirm +3.7%

  • PayPal +2.8%

The Global X FinTech, Cloud and eCommerce ETFs all rallied at least 2.3%.

This means local Block (ASX: SQ2) shares will have a strong open, which could see positive flows extend to the broader BNPL and tech sector.

#2 Lithium

The VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF is up 17.6% in the last five trading sessions. 

VanEck Rare Earth Strategic Metals ETF
VanEck Rare Earths/Strategic Metals ETF (Source: TradingView)

There's plenty of local lithium and rare earth names breaking out to near-term highs if not all-time highs.

The ETFs bullish momentum, positive SPI futures and easing volatility (VIX below 20) could see another encouraging session for the local sector.

See a full list of ASX lithium stocks here.

#3 Hydrogen

The Global X Hydrogen ETF is making a comeback after a -50% correction between last November and late January.

The ETF is close to year-to-date highs and trying to break above the 100-day moving average.

Global X Hydrogen ETF
Global X Hydrogen ETF (Source: TradingView)

ASX-listed hydrogen stocks sit more towards the speculative end of town, with notable names including:

It will be interesting to see if local names can shake off the recent bearish price action and make a comeback.

#4 Travel 

Major ASX travel and airline stocks were relatively flat on Tuesday despite the broader market rallying 0.86%.

This might've been in response to a fatal Boeing 737 crash in China, which plunged 20,000 feet in just over a minute with 132 people on board.

Most US airlines closed around 2% higher overnight, which could see some positive flow return for local travel and airline stocks.

#5 Energy

Oil prices struggled to sustain a rally, rallying from US$119 to US$114 overnight.

"Crude supply shortage concerns were somewhat alleviated after reports that China is buying Russian crude at a big discount. It looks like two key economies, China and India are still buying Russian oil and that will likely put a halt to the recent rebound in prices," said Oanda senior market analyst, Ed Moya.

"If Europe decides they will move forward with a Russian oil ban, oil prices will skyrocket. Russian Deputy PM Novak noted that the course of action of a ban could send oil to more than US$300 a barrel."

Today's events

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

  • Ex-dividend: BGP, FSF, MYR, SEK, SNL, VRT

  • Dividends paid: ASX, DBI, EGH, HT1, LGL, MAD, MEA, NZM, PTL, SDF, SGM, SHL, SIQ, SNZ, TPC, WPL

  • Listing: PIM

  • Issued shares: ABA, ABP, AHC, AZL, BCN, BRK, CGF, CHK, CNU, COB, DVP, EM2, EMR, FBU, GL1, HAS, HHI, HSN, IMA, LRK, MAY, MGF, NAB, PHO, PIC, PNR, PRU, QFE, QVE, SEG, SGM, SIS, SLC

 

Written By

Kerry Sun

Finance Writer & Social Media

Kerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University. He is an avid swing trader, focused on technical set ups and breakouts. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a big UFC fan, loves poker and training Muay Thai. Connect via LinkedIn or email.

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