Market Wraps

Morning Wrap: S&P 500 higher ahead of US inflation data and earnings season, ASX to rise

Tue 11 Apr 23, 8:20am (AEST)

ASX 200 futures are trading 9 points higher, up 0.12% as of 8:20 am AEDT.

Welcome back – Hope everyone enjoyed some time off. US markets eked out a small gain in the last two sessions, Costco posts its lowest sales growth in almost three years, US first quarter earnings season will kick off this week and 87% of S&P 500 market cap will report by the week ending May 5, US commercial bank lending flags largest decline on record in the second half of March and all eyes on US inflation this Thursday.

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Tue 11 Apr 23, 8:20am (AEDT)

Name Value Chg %
Major Indices
S&P 500 4,109 +0.10%
Dow Jones 33,587 +0.30%
NASDAQ Comp 12,084 -0.03%
Russell 2000 1,772 +1.02%
Country Indices
Canada 20,276 +0.39%
China 3,315 -0.37%
Germany 15,598 +0.50%
Hong Kong 20,331 +0.28%
India 59,847 +0.02%
Japan 27,634 +0.42%
United Kingdom 7,742 +1.03%
Name Value Chg %
Commodities (USD)
Gold 2,006.50 +0.13%
Iron Ore 119.75 -
Copper 3.99 +0.33%
WTI Oil 79.82 +0.10%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6641 -0.01%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (AUD) 44,490 +3.67%
Ethereum (AUD) 2,867 +1.88%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond 3.415 +3.86%
VIX 19 +3.10%

US Sectors

Tue 11 Apr 23, 8:20am (AEDT)

Sector Chg %
Industrials +0.90%
Energy +0.65%
Materials +0.49%
Real Estate +0.49%
Consumer Discretionary +0.42%
Financials +0.27%
Consumer Staples -0.01%
Health Care -0.04%
Information Technology -0.15%
Utilities -0.20%
Communication Services -0.69%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 intraday
S&P 500 recoups early losses in the last two sessions (Source: TradingView)

MARKETS

  • US markets were open on Monday and last Thursday

  • S&P 500 edged higher both days amid choppy trade and weak opens

  • US 2-year Treasury yield rose 18 bps since Thursday to 4.01%

  • Barclays sees investors pouring US$1.5tn more into safe money funds (Bloomberg)

  • US consumer prices seen staying firm, testing the Fed (Bloomberg)

  • 20 megacap stocks account for ~90% of S&P 500's gains this year (FT)

  • Swaps markets pricing ~80% chance of a 25 bp hike at May meeting (Bloomberg)

STOCKS

  • Costco falls on lowest US sales growth in almost three years (Bloomberg)

  • Google, Amazon mass layoffs in Europe stalled due to labor protections (Bloomberg)

  • First Republic to suspend dividend payments on preferred stock (Reuters)

  • Tesla announces plans for Shanghai Megapack energy storage system plant (FT)

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing misses sales estimates for the second quarter in a row and provides a cautious outlook (Bloomberg)

EARNINGS

US earnings season will begin to ramp up this week. On Friday, we will see first quarter results from JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock and Citi. S&P 500 companies are expected to report a 6.8% year-on-year decline in first quarter earnings, the biggest decline since the second quarter of 2020, according to FactSet. In terms of reporting dates: 

S&P 500 reporting dates
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ECONOMY

  • US commercial bank lending falls US$105bn second half of March, the biggest decline on record (Bloomberg)

  • US commercial real estate faces big refinancing risk with ~US$1.5tn of debt due for repayment before 2025; office, retail property valuations could fall 40% (Bloomberg)

  • US economy still churning out jobs as brisk clip, wage pressure subsiding (Reuters)

  • US weekly jobless claims drop, revisions suggest labor market looser (Reuters)

  • India unexpectedly holds rates, keeps door open for more hikes (Reuters)

  • China March services activity accelerates on new orders (Reuters)

  • Global PC shipments fell 29% year-on-year in Q1(IDC)

  • Food prices are new inflation threat for governments and central banks (WSJ)

Industry ETFs

Tue 11 Apr 23, 8:20am (AEDT)

Description Last Chg %
Commodities
Steel 60.73 +2.22%
Lithium & Battery Tech 60.99 +1.66%
Strategic Metals 78.66 +0.48%
Uranium 19.07 +0.37%
Aluminum 48.535 +0.03%
Silver 22.89 -0.04%
Copper Miners 38.64 -0.08%
Gold 186.49 -0.74%
Nickel 30.63 -0.78%
Industrials
Global Jets 18.13 +1.05%
Aerospace & Defense 114.42 +0.98%
Healthcare
Cannabis 8.71 +4.48%
Biotechnology 131.05 -0.53%
Description Last Chg %
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 16.69 +4.67%
Renewables
Solar 73.68 +2.05%
CleanTech 15.02 +1.93%
Hydrogen 10.02 +1.60%
Technology
Semiconductor 422.92 +1.77%
Robotics & AI 24.5 +0.78%
Electric Vehicles 22.68 +0.75%
Sports Betting/Gaming 16.05 +0.50%
FinTech 20.42 +0.49%
Video Games/eSports 52.37 +0.36%
Cloud Computing 17.59 -0.23%
E-commerce 17.51 -0.23%
Cybersecurity 22.9 -0.48%

Deeper Dive

Economic Data: A Heavy Week

It's a pretty stacked week for economic data, including (AEST):

  • Wed 10:30 pm: US inflation rate

  • Thu 4:00 am: FOMC minutes

  • Thu 10:30 pm: US PPI

  • Fri 10:30 pm: US Retail Sales

US inflation was 6.0% year-on-year in February and consensus expects that figure to ease to 5.2% in March. Goldman Sachs expects a 5.1% print and some key areas to look out for include:

  • Headline inflation forecast to rise 0.13% month-on-month (vs. consensus +0.20%) reflecting declining energy prices and higher food prices

  • A pullback in travel categories (airfares -2.0%, hotel lodging -0.5%)

  • Modest declines in apparel and electronic prices on the back of slowing sales and increased discounting

  • Modest increase in used (+0.5%) and new (+0.2%) car prices, reflecting rebounding auction prices

  • Another hot shelter reading albeit sequentially slower than in February (we estimate rent +0.73% and OER +0.65%) as weakness in new rental pricing begins to offset continued upward pressure on renewing leases

Talking Technicals: Into Resistance

Nasdaq 100, Treasury bonds and gold starting to fatigue as they rally into key resistance areas aka 'head banging'.

Nasdaq 100
Nasdaq 100 (Source: TradingView)
T-Bonds
Treasury bond futures (Source: TradingView)
Gold
Gold (Source: TradingView)

Sectors to Watch

Not a whole lot happened in the last two days. Most of our sector ETFs were marginally higher after being sold off last Monday through to Wednesday.

Gold: Gold is on a four-day losing streak after peaking at US$2,032 last Wednesday. Prices fell -0.8% overnight to US$1,990, which could see some weakness follow through for local gold miners.

Key Events

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

  • Trading ex-div: WAM Active (WAA) – $0.03, Cosol (COS) – $0.01, Seven Group Holdings (SVW) – $0.23, WAM Research (WAX) – $0.05 

  • Dividends paid: DDH1 (DDH) – $0.033, Humm Group (HUM) – $0.01, Link Administration (LNK) – $0.045, Southern Cross Media (SXL) – $0.046, Saunders International (SND) – $0.02, Kinda Securities (KSL) – $0.065, Downer (DOW) – $0.05, Chorus (CNU) – $0.135 

  • Listing: Evergreen Lithium (EG1) 

Economic calendar (AEST):

  • 3:00 pm: Japan Consumer Confidence 

Written By

Kerry Sun

Content Strategist

Kerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University. He is an avid swing trader, focused on technical set ups and breakouts. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a big UFC fan, loves poker and training Muay Thai. Connect via LinkedIn or email.

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