Morning Wrap: S&P 500 edges higher, Netflix misses subscriber expectations, ASX to rise

ASX 200 futures are trading 9 points higher, up 0.12% as of 8:20 am AEDT.

Major US benchmarks were rather muted and awaiting more earnings, Bank of America's Fund Manager Survey shows investors are most bearish on stocks versus bonds since the Global Financial Crisis, Netflix shares whipsaw after hours as subscriber growth missed expectations, Goldman Sachs earnings slump amid depressed investment banking fees, Canada's inflation rate slows to 4.3% in March and a closer look at why everyone is bearish (and why that might be contrarian bullish).

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 fades a gap up to close just above breakeven (Source: TradingView) 

MARKETS

• S&P 500 edges higher from session highs of 0.44% and lows of -0.26%

• Bullish focus points: Renewed soft landing expectations, easing bank stress, disinflation momentum, positive start and low bar to Q1 earnings 

• Latest BofA Fund Manager Survey showed investors have the lowest equity allocations and most bearish since the Global Financial Crisis

• St Louis Fed President Bullard says Fed should continue raising rates as recent data shows inflation remains persistent (Reuters)

• Markets shrugging off recession risks and weak earnings growth, but bearish bets continue to rise (Bloomberg)

• Bond allocations highest since March 2009 (Bloomberg)

• JP Morgan's Kolanovic says tech is overbought (Bloomberg)

• More US dollar weakness expected ahead amid potential US recession (FT)

STOCKS

• Bank of America to cut 4,000 jobs in Q2 (FT)

• Intel ends Bitcoin-mining series of chips after just one generation (Reuters)

• Nvidia receives upgrade from HSBC, citing “incredible AI pricing power (CNBC)

EARNINGS

Lockheed Martin (+2.4%): Beat earnings and revenue expectations, reaffirmed its full-year profit outlook, shares hit all-time highs. 

Bank of America (+0.6%): Beat both earnings and revenue expectations, net income rose 15% to US$8.2bn, expects net interest income to be 2% lower in Q2 vs. Q1.

• “We’ve seen debit and credit card spending at about 6% year-over-year growth pace, a little slower but still healthy” – CEO Brian Moynihan

• “I think it’s a little early to call, but it is a little softer in the first part of April here.” – CEO Brian Moynihan on consumer spending 

Netflix (+0.3%): Released its earnings after hours. Slight revenue miss and earnings beat, net new subscribers of 1.75 million below expectations of 2.4 million, Q2 revenue guidance below market expectations. The stock flopped -13% in after hours in the first five minutes and then rallied 16% in the next 30 minutes. Wild.

Goldman Sachs (-1.7%): Posted a double miss, first quarter profits fell amid the worst three months for dealmaking in more than a decade weakened investment banking fees. 

JB Hunt Transport Services (-1.0%): Missed earnings and revenue expectations, impacted by falloff in container imports into the West Coast and weak domestic trucking volumes.

• “We’re in a challenging freight environment where there is deflationary price pressure for an industry that continues to face inflationary costs.” – President Shelly Simpson 

• “We admittedly have too much cost in our system right now for the current level of activity in our organisation.” – Simpson 

• Volumes declined 2% year-on-year in January, -4% in February and -8% in March

Johnson & Johnson (-2.8%): Double beat, raised dividend by 5%, upgraded full-year guidance but seeing greater-than-expected competition for Imbruvica therapies.

ECONOMY

• US housing starts stabilise in March, building permits disappoint (Reuters)

• Canada's inflation rate slows to 4.3% in March, slowest pace since 2021 (Reuters)

• China economy grew at fastest pace in a year, but mixed March activity data (Reuters)

• UK wage growth accelerated unexpectedly, unemployment rate edges higher (FT)

• German investor sentiment unexpectedly falls in April (Reuters)

• IMF says China will be top contributor to global growth over next five years (Bloomberg)

• RBA minutes emphasise April's pause does not mean end of tightening (Bloomberg)

Deeper Dive

It was a pretty dull overnight session as the market awaits more earnings. Since not much happened, here's sectors to watch in one sentence: Nickel, aluminium, gold and copper higher, everything else was rather muted.

Is it time to get bullish?

Markets remain strong and the global economy is holding up better than expected. Yet, everyone is bearish. So does this make it contrarian bullish? Let's take a look at some recent data points.

CNBC surveyed 400 Chief Investment Officers, equity strategists, portfolio manages and contributors who manage money about where they stood on the markets for the second quarter and beyond. They were of course, very bearish.

Source: CNBC

Likewise with JPMorgan's surveys, which showed that 95% expect the S&P 500 to be lower by year end.

Source: JPMorgan

Source: JPMorgan

As well as Bank of America's Global Fund Manager Survey, which shows that fundies are net overweight of stocks vs. bonds is the lowest since the Global Financial Crisis.

Source: Bank of America

In an environment where nobody wants to have exposure, does that mean they will eventually be forced to participate (especially since they are paid to invest client capital). Also, if sentiment is so bearish does it also mean the market can stomach bad news better?

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

• Trading ex-div: Washington H Soul Pattinson (SOL) – $0.36, Tribeca Global Natural Resources (TGF) – $0.125, Spheria Emerging Companies (SEC) – $0.022, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Oz Minerals (OZL) – $1.75

• Dividends paid: Veem (VEE) – $0.004, Garda Property (GDF) – $0.018 

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 4:00 pm: UK Inflation