Market Wraps

Morning Wrap: S&P 500 edges higher, Netflix misses subscriber expectations, ASX to rise

Wed 19 Apr 23, 8:37am (AEST)

ASX 200 futures are trading 9 points higher, up 0.12% as of 8:20 am AEDT.

Major US benchmarks were rather muted and awaiting more earnings, Bank of America's Fund Manager Survey shows investors are most bearish on stocks versus bonds since the Global Financial Crisis, Netflix shares whipsaw after hours as subscriber growth missed expectations, Goldman Sachs earnings slump amid depressed investment banking fees, Canada's inflation rate slows to 4.3% in March and a closer look at why everyone is bearish (and why that might be contrarian bullish).

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Wed 19 Apr 23, 8:37am (AEDT)

Name Value Chg %
Major Indices
S&P 500 4,155 +0.09%
Dow Jones 33,977 -0.03%
NASDAQ Comp 12,153 -0.04%
Russell 2000 1,796 -0.40%
Country Indices
Canada 20,685 +0.21%
China 3,393 +0.23%
Germany 15,883 +0.59%
Hong Kong 20,651 -0.63%
India 59,727 -0.31%
Japan 28,659 +0.51%
United Kingdom 7,909 +0.38%
Name Value Chg %
Commodities (USD)
Gold 2,017.80 +0.54%
Iron Ore 120.34 -
Copper 4.09 +0.59%
WTI Oil 80.85 +0.02%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6728 +0.03%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (AUD) 45,118 +2.93%
Ethereum (AUD) 3,107 +0.56%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond 3.572 -0.53%
VIX 17 -0.71%

US Sectors

Wed 19 Apr 23, 8:37am (AEDT)

Sector Chg %
Industrials +0.46%
Energy +0.45%
Information Technology +0.41%
Materials +0.40%
Consumer Staples +0.33%
Financials +0.31%
Consumer Discretionary +0.13%
Real Estate -0.15%
Utilities -0.51%
Communication Services -0.65%
Health Care -0.65%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 intraday
S&P 500 fades a gap up to close just above breakeven (Source: TradingView) 

MARKETS

  • S&P 500 edges higher from session highs of 0.44% and lows of -0.26%

  • Bullish focus points: Renewed soft landing expectations, easing bank stress, disinflation momentum, positive start and low bar to Q1 earnings 

  • Latest BofA Fund Manager Survey showed investors have the lowest equity allocations and most bearish since the Global Financial Crisis

  • St Louis Fed President Bullard says Fed should continue raising rates as recent data shows inflation remains persistent (Reuters)

  • Markets shrugging off recession risks and weak earnings growth, but bearish bets continue to rise (Bloomberg)

  • Bond allocations highest since March 2009 (Bloomberg)

  • JP Morgan's Kolanovic says tech is overbought (Bloomberg)

  • More US dollar weakness expected ahead amid potential US recession (FT)

STOCKS

  • Bank of America to cut 4,000 jobs in Q2 (FT)

  • Intel ends Bitcoin-mining series of chips after just one generation (Reuters)

  • Nvidia receives upgrade from HSBC, citing “incredible AI pricing power (CNBC)

EARNINGS

Lockheed Martin (+2.4%): Beat earnings and revenue expectations, reaffirmed its full-year profit outlook, shares hit all-time highs. 

Bank of America (+0.6%): Beat both earnings and revenue expectations, net income rose 15% to US$8.2bn, expects net interest income to be 2% lower in Q2 vs. Q1.

  • “We’ve seen debit and credit card spending at about 6% year-over-year growth pace, a little slower but still healthy” – CEO Brian Moynihan

  • “I think it’s a little early to call, but it is a little softer in the first part of April here.” – CEO Brian Moynihan on consumer spending 

Netflix (+0.3%): Released its earnings after hours. Slight revenue miss and earnings beat, net new subscribers of 1.75 million below expectations of 2.4 million, Q2 revenue guidance below market expectations. The stock flopped -13% in after hours in the first five minutes and then rallied 16% in the next 30 minutes. Wild.

Goldman Sachs (-1.7%): Posted a double miss, first quarter profits fell amid the worst three months for dealmaking in more than a decade weakened investment banking fees. 

JB Hunt Transport Services (-1.0%): Missed earnings and revenue expectations, impacted by falloff in container imports into the West Coast and weak domestic trucking volumes.

  • “We’re in a challenging freight environment where there is deflationary price pressure for an industry that continues to face inflationary costs.” – President Shelly Simpson 

  • “We admittedly have too much cost in our system right now for the current level of activity in our organisation.” – Simpson 

  • Volumes declined 2% year-on-year in January, -4% in February and -8% in March

Johnson & Johnson (-2.8%): Double beat, raised dividend by 5%, upgraded full-year guidance but seeing greater-than-expected competition for Imbruvica therapies.

ECONOMY

  • US housing starts stabilise in March, building permits disappoint (Reuters)

  • Canada's inflation rate slows to 4.3% in March, slowest pace since 2021 (Reuters)

  • China economy grew at fastest pace in a year, but mixed March activity data (Reuters)

  • UK wage growth accelerated unexpectedly, unemployment rate edges higher (FT)

  • German investor sentiment unexpectedly falls in April (Reuters)

  • IMF says China will be top contributor to global growth over next five years (Bloomberg)

  • RBA minutes emphasise April's pause does not mean end of tightening (Bloomberg)

Industry ETFs

Wed 19 Apr 23, 8:37am (AEDT)

Description Last Chg %
Commodities
Nickel 32.99 +2.68%
Aluminum 49.02 +2.54%
Copper Miners 41.48 +2.07%
Steel 63.8 +1.36%
Lithium & Battery Tech 63.4 +0.73%
Silver 23.02 +0.56%
Strategic Metals 83.02 +0.49%
Gold 185.53 +0.39%
Uranium 19.72 -0.30%
Industrials
Aerospace & Defense 116.13 +1.10%
Global Jets 18.17 +0.94%
Healthcare
Biotechnology 133.57 -0.68%
Cannabis 8.56 -1.40%
Description Last Chg %
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 17.55 +2.68%
Renewables
Solar 78.36 +0.05%
CleanTech 15.74 0.00%
Hydrogen 10.15 -1.97%
Technology
Sports Betting/Gaming 16.3193 +2.21%
Video Games/eSports 51.92 +0.81%
Robotics & AI 24.98 +0.48%
Semiconductor 423.1 +0.43%
E-commerce 17.71 +0.31%
Electric Vehicles 23.22 +0.22%
Cloud Computing 17.71 -0.11%
FinTech 21.06 -0.19%
Cybersecurity 23.2 -0.43%

Deeper Dive

It was a pretty dull overnight session as the market awaits more earnings. Since not much happened, here's sectors to watch in one sentence: Nickel, aluminium, gold and copper higher, everything else was rather muted.

Is it time to get bullish?

Markets remain strong and the global economy is holding up better than expected. Yet, everyone is bearish. So does this make it contrarian bullish? Let's take a look at some recent data points.

CNBC surveyed 400 Chief Investment Officers, equity strategists, portfolio manages and contributors who manage money about where they stood on the markets for the second quarter and beyond. They were of course, very bearish.

2023-04-19 08 11 14-FtenAg0XwAEqsDL (840×400)
Source: CNBC

Likewise with JPMorgan's surveys, which showed that 95% expect the S&P 500 to be lower by year end.

2023-04-19 08 15 32-Ft7uk08WIAYaiVK (2239×1834)
Source: JPMorgan
2023-04-19 08 16 18-Ft9Nz5NX0AAnn08 (1213×735)
Source: JPMorgan

As well as Bank of America's Global Fund Manager Survey, which shows that fundies are net overweight of stocks vs. bonds is the lowest since the Global Financial Crisis.

2023-04-19 08 17 04-FuAYpFbWYAM6neu (1218×879)
Source: Bank of America

In an environment where nobody wants to have exposure, does that mean they will eventually be forced to participate (especially since they are paid to invest client capital). Also, if sentiment is so bearish does it also mean the market can stomach bad news better?

Key Events

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

  • Trading ex-div: Washington H Soul Pattinson (SOL) – $0.36, Tribeca Global Natural Resources (TGF) – $0.125, Spheria Emerging Companies (SEC) – $0.022, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Oz Minerals (OZL) – $1.75

  • Dividends paid: Veem (VEE) – $0.004, Garda Property (GDF) – $0.018 

  • Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

  • 4:00 pm: UK Inflation

Written By

Kerry Sun

Content Strategist

Kerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University. He is an avid swing trader, focused on technical set ups and breakouts. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a big UFC fan, loves poker and training Muay Thai. Connect via LinkedIn or email.

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