Morning Wrap: Dow closes flat, Nasdaq falls ahead of key Powell speech, ASX futures flat

US stocks struggled as China quashes reopening rumours, Powell delivers his speech tomorrow morning which might shake up markets, Apple falls for a third-straight session on supply chain concerns, Germany posts a larger-than-expected fall in inflation figures and global bond yields invert for the first time since 2000.

Let's dive in.

MARKETS

It was another session where the Nasdaq fell but the Dow managed to close around breakeven. The optimism around China loosening its covid restrictions proved to be extremely short-lived. Bond yields rallied overnight weighing on risk assets. There may be some jitters heading into Fed Chair Powell's speech which will be delivered tomorrow at 5:30 am AEDT.

• Energy led to the upside thanks to a volatile rebound for oil. Brent crude rose around 1.5% but down from session highs of 4.1%

• Technology was the worst performing sector following declines from several tech heavyweights including Alphabet (-0.8%), Microsoft (-0.9%), Amazon (-1.65%) and Apple (-2.5%) 

• 54% of stocks advanced

• 46% of stocks trade below their 200-day moving average (46% on Tuesday, 45% a week ago) 

STOCKS

HSBC (+4.2%) said it will sell its Canadian unit to the Royal Bank of Canada for US$10.1bn.

• “We’ve reported a net charge of $1.1 billion or 43% of expected credit losses in the quarter … There was a $300 million charge in the UK … $400 million also related to the Mainland China commercial real estate market.” - CFO Ewen Stevenson (25 October) 

Apple (-2.5%) shares have slumped -6.8% in the last three sessions as China’s covid unrest elevates risks to the tech company’s supply chain.

• The dip wipes out roughly US$160bn which is roughly BHP’s entire market cap 

• “I believe that most of the demand for the 4Q22 iPhone 14 Pro series amid the economic recession will disappear due to the significant supply and demand gap rather than deferred.” - Ming Chi Kuo, analyst at TF International Securities 

WORLD NEWS 

• Estonia, Lithuania push for lower price cap on Russian exports (Bloomberg)

• Nasdaq peaked a year ago. Now we know it was a bubble (Bloomberg)

• China ramps up vaccinations for its elderly (Reuters)

ECONOMY

Germany’s inflation eased to 10.0% year-on-year in November from 10.4% in October.

• Below analyst expectations of 10.4%

• Month-on-month, inflation was down -0.5% compared to 0.9% in October

• Energy prices are up 38.4% year-on-year but down from 43.0% in October 

• Spain and Brazil also posted larger-than-expected inflation figures overnight 

Canada’s third quarter GDP was 2.9% on an annualised basis from 3.2% in the second quarter. 

• Well-above analyst expectations of 1.5%

• Quarter-on-quarter, GDP rose 0.7% after 0.8% growth in the second quarter

• Third quarter household consumption fell -1%, marking the first drop since 2021 

COMMODITIES

Iron ore futures fell -1.2% to US$99.60 a tonne.

• I've switched the futures contract to December (from November) so the prices are a little different today

• Chinese steel futures rose on Tuesday as traders maintain a wait-and-see sentiment heading into winter, while expecting better prospects in the long run, according to CN Wire

Brent crude faded from session highs of 4.1%.

• "Oil’s rally ran out of steam after reports that OPEC+ might end up keeping their output steady. ​ Expectations were growing for them to seriously consider an output cut as China’s COVID situation steadily worsened," said Oanda senior market analyst, Ed Moya

Newcastle coal futures +2.90% to US$390 a tonne.

QUICK BITES

• Nasdaq bubble: “... Of 2,927 individual analyst recommendations on 19 November, the day of the Nasdaq 100 peak, 1,897 were to buy stocks, 916 were to hold and just 114 were to sell." - Bloomberg

• Global yield curve inversion: "Global bonds joined US peers in signaling a recession, with a gauge measuring the worldwide yield curve inverting for the first time in at least two decades." - Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

• Markets versus Powell: Fed officials continue to stick to their hawkish script while the market refuses to let go of the pivot narrative. On Monday, the Fed's Williams said they're not going to cut rates next year while Bullard said rates need to remain in the 5-7% range.

Source: Bloomberg

China's reopening rumours (round two) were very short-lived. Instead, officials said they will make a push to vaccinate senior citizens, which Bloomberg reports as "a move regarded by health experts as crucial to reopening."

Powell's speech feels like another binary and direction driving event. Especially considering how much the market has run since mid October.

This does seem like an all too familiar 'rally into Fed selloff' event. After all, we've seen plenty of 'Fed pivot' rallies fizzle on events like inflation prints, Jackson Hole and the Fed's interest rate decision conferences. Will this time be any different?

"Given the risks around the inflation outlook: Allied price cap on Russian oil exports, persistent inflation that remains elevated in the service sector and the uncertain path of rents - all demand a hawkish speech around shaping inflation expectations," said Joseph Brusuelas, RSM Chief Economist.

Sectors to watch

Nickel: Nickel futures rallied 5.16% overnight. It managed to bounce off the 20-day moving average and previous highs.

Bloomberg Nickel Subindex (Source: TradingView)

Copper: Copper is trying to stabilise around old highs after a sharp China-related selloff. Even though prices have somewhat gone full circle, copper stocks have managed to hold onto gains relatively well.

Copper futures (Source: TradingView)

Global X Copper Miners ETF (Source: TradingView)

Gold: Gold is trying to find its groove again but struggling to above the 200-day. Powell's speech could a major catalyst that influences bond yields, the US dollar and subsequently gold. What's interesting is that several gold miners like Northern Star, Evolution and Newcrest all fell around 3-5% in early trade on Monday but rallied back up to breakeven. Is there a bit of dip buying going around here?

Gold price (Source: TradingView)

Stocks going ex-dividend over the next week:

• Wed: Pengana International Equities (PIA), Aristocrat Leisure (ALL), PTB Group (PTB)

• Thu: Technology One (TNE), Pendal Group (PDL) 

• Fri: None

• Mon: Incitec Pivot (IPL) 

• Tue: None 

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

• Dividends paid: Acrow Formwork and Construction Services (ACF), Kelly Partners Group (KPG), GenusPlus Group (GNP), US Student Housing REIT (USQ) 

•  Listing: Source Certain International (SC1)

Other things of interest (AEDT):

• 11:30 am: Australia building permits

• 11:30 am: Australia inflation rate 

• 12:30 pm: China NBS manufacturing and services PMI

• 9:00 pm: Eurozone inflation rate 

• 12:30 am: US Q3 GDP growth estimate