Morning Wrap: Bounce set to continue after US stocks rally on rate cut hopes

ASX 200 futures are up 97pts (+1.13%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• The bounce is set to continue after US markets rose on increased rate cut hopes

• Markets are pricing in an 83% chance of a December cut 

• Rally came despite 2%+ fall in Nvidia

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 stronger, closing not far from session high (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks all closed higher overnight, with the Dow up more than 650 points (+1.5%), whilst the S&P (+0.9%) and Nasdaq (+0.7%) also gained

• Alphabet soared in early trading, while Nvidia plunged after a report that Meta is looking at spending billions on Google AI chips.

• Nvidia responded in a statement, saying it “is a generation ahead of the industry.”

• JPMorgan expects the dollar to soften next year on easier US monetary and fiscal policy (Bloomberg)

• Oil, gold, shipping, gas, ag the markets to watch as US and Ukraine push for peace (Bloomberg)

• Market volatility rising as debt, policy, market speculation all feed into uncertainty (NY Times)

STOCKS

• Alibaba shares rose 3% as AI drives 34% cloud sales jump

• Apple to again become world's largest smartphone maker for first time in a decade (Bloomberg)

• Spotify to raise US prices in Q1 of 2026 as part of push to demonstrate sustained profitability (FT)

• Sandisk shares rally as flash storage firm joins S&P 500 nine months after Western Digital spin-off (CNBC)

• Zoom beats on strong enterprise growth and AI Companion adoption (Bloomberg)

• FDA approves Novartis one-time gene therapy for spinal muscular atrophy in children and adults (Reuters)

• ECB investigates Deutsche Bank whistleblower claims of €200B hidden leverage through aggressive netting (FT)

• Volkswagen slashes China EV production costs by 50% and shortens development time by 30% (FT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Allies provide path for Fed Chair Powell to push rate cut through divided central bank at December meeting (link)

• Fed Governor Waller says he supports December rate cut, but January decision more uncertain (Reuters)

• ECB's Nagel warns of persistent food and services inflation despite 2% target return (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS & TRADE

• Russia likely to reject peace-plan changes made by US and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi (Washington Post)

• Trump and China's Xi spoke on trade, Taiwan, and Ukraine; Trump accepted invite to visit Beijing in April (Bloomberg)

• Taiwan premier firmly rejects Xi's claim of island's 'return' to China after Trump call (Independent)

• Sovereign AI boom driven by countries like South Korea concerned about becoming overly dependent on the superpowers for technology (WSJ)

ECONOMY

• German economy stagnated in Q3, official data confirm (Reuters)

ASX TODAY

• Fisher & Paykel Healthcare(ASX: FPH) posts stronger-than-expected H1 NPAT of NZ$213M versus expectations of NZ$198.8M, with revenue in line and margins steady. Also lifted full-year NPAT and revenue guidance.

WHAT TO WATCH 

• The first monthly CPI release is set for 11.30 am AEDT. NAB said it expects headline CPI of 3.6% year-over-year

• The RBNZ is widely expected to cut its official cash rate by 25 basis points, with a statement expected at 12 pm AEDT.

• Gold finished up 1.1%. Bitcoin futures were down 2.0% after a 5%+ rally on Monday. WTI crude settled down 1.5% on volatile Ukraine peace-deal headlines.

BROKER MOVES

• Bendigo & Adelaide Bank (BEN) downgraded to NEUTRAL from Buy by BofA; target cut to A$10.20 from A$12.80

• Guzman y Gomez (GYG) upgraded to NEUTRAL from Underweight by JPMorgan; target raised to $23.40 from $23.10

• WEB Travel Group (WEB) assumed OVERWEIGHT by JPMorgan; prior rating Overweight; target maintained at $6.00

• WEB Travel Group (WEB) upgraded to EQUAL-WEIGHT from Underweight by Morgan Stanley; target lifted to $4.40 from $4.00

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• 26 November: Als (ALQ) – $0.194; Graincorp (GNC) – $0.24; Infratil (IFT) – $0.059

• 27 November: Amcor (AMC) – $0.198; Technology One (TNE) – $0.30; Webjet Group (WJL) – $0.02

• 28 November: Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.011; Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.012; Metrics Real Estate Multi-Strategy Fund (MRE) – $0.008

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Senetas Corp (SEN), Champion Iron (CIA)

• Listing: Sea Forest (26/11), Equus Energy (27/11), Black Horse Mining (28/11)

• Earnings: Select Harvests (SHV)

• AGMs: Lynas Rare Earths (LYC), Praemium (PPS), Harvey Norman (HVN), Liontown Resources (LTR)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

US - Durable Goods Orders - 12:30 AM Germany - Gfk Consumer Confidence - 6:00 PM