Morning Wrap: ASX to tumble as US stocks reverse gains
ASX 200 futures are down 142 points (-1.66%) as of 8:45 am AEDT.
In this article
ASX 200 futures are down 142 points (-1.66%) as of 8:45 am AEDT.
In a nutshell:
Major US benchmarks sank to session lows as investors weighed Nvidia’s (NVDA) blockbuster earnings against fading hopes for rate cuts after the long-delayed - and stronger-than-expected - September jobs report.
The shutdown-postponed report showed the US economy added 119,000 jobs - more than economists anticipated. After the release, fed funds futures priced in less than a 40% chance of a third rate cut this year, a setback for investors hoping for more easing. The unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 pp to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021.
Meanwhile, Ray Dalio offered a dose of perspective. Appearing on CNBC’s Squawk Box, he warned that frothy markets don’t automatically signal a time to sell. “Don’t sell just because there’s a bubble,” he said. “But if you look at the correlations with the next 10 years’ returns, when you are in that territory, you get very low returns.”
Let's dive in.
Overnight Summary
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Major Indices | ||
 S&P 500 | 6,539 | -1.56% |
Dow Jones | 45,752 | -0.84% |
NASDAQ Comp | 22,078 | -2.15% |
Russell 2000 | 2,307 | -1.72% |
Country Indices | ||
 Canada | 29,907 | -1.23% |
 China | 3,931 | -0.40% |
 Germany | 23,279 | +0.50% |
 Hong Kong | 25,836 | +0.02% |
 India | 85,633 | +0.52% |
 Japan | 49,824 | +2.65% |
 United Kingdom | 9,528 | +0.21% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Commodities (USD) | ||
 Gold | 4,079.48 | +0.03% |
 Copper | 4.944 | -1.88% |
 WTI Oil | 58.71 | -0.91% |
Currency | ||
 AUD/USD | 0.6443 | -0.56% |
Cryptocurrency | ||
 Bitcoin (USD) | 86,557 | -3.37% |
 Ethereum (AUD) | 4,421 | -3.53% |
Miscellaneous | ||
US 10 Yr T-bond | 4.106 | -0.65% |
VIX | 26.45 | +11.77% |
Today in Review
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Major Indices | ||
| ASX 200 | 8,552.7 | +1.24% |
| All Ords | 8,834.0 | +1.29% |
| Small Ords | 3,628.0 | +1.55% |
| All Tech | 3,525.2 | +1.85% |
| Emerging Companies | 2,779.1 | +2.27% |
Currency | ||
| AUD/USD | 0.6442 | -0.56% |
US Futures | ||
| S&P 500 | 6,563.5 | -1.47% |
| Dow Jones | 45,855.0 | -0.76% |
| Nasdaq | 24,152.5 | -2.30% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Sector | ||
| Materials | 19,748.9 | +2.45% |
| Information Technology | 2,260.1 | +2.36% |
| Real Estate | 3,926.1 | +1.41% |
| Financials | 9,049.4 | +1.21% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 4,050.9 | +1.19% |
| Industrials | 8,328.2 | +0.52% |
| Communication Services | 1,784.1 | +0.42% |
| Consumer Staples | 11,727.2 | +0.33% |
| Health Care | 34,809.6 | +0.29% |
| Energy | 8,874.0 | -0.35% |
| Utilities | 9,775.1 | -1.27% |
S&P 500 SESSION CHART
S&P 500 closes at a session low (Source: TradingView)
OVERNIGHT MARKETS
US equities were lower in Thursday trading as stocks ended near worst levels.
Nasdaq pacing for worst weekly performance since April (Liberation Day). Big tech all lower, including Nvidia, after giving up earlier gains.
Citadel says a healthy pullback in the S&P 500 Index has set the stage for a powerful rebound into year-end (Bloomberg)
Treasuries firmer across the curve, down 2-4 bp. Dollar index flat.
Gold finished down 0.6%.
Bitcoin futures down 3.2%, at lowest level since April.
WTI crude settled down 0.4%
STOCKS & ETFs
Walmart jumps 6.57% after lifting its sales outlook, powered by strong e-commerce growth and - importantly - a surge in higher-income shoppers. Even wealthier Americans are feeling the pinch of the cost-of-living squeeze and are turning to discount retailers for value (NBC)
Amazon to invest $3 billion to build data center in Mississippi (Yahoo Finance)
OpenAI says its GPT-5 model accelerating research in math, biology, physics (FT)
TARIFFS
USDA announces more soybean sales to China, as well as first known sales of wheat (Bloomberg)
CENTRAL BANKS
Fed's Goolsbee says he feels uneasy about cutting rates as inflation progress seems to have stalled (Reuters)
Fed's Cook says she sees risk of outsized asset price declines amid high valuations (Reuters)
Governor Barr says Fed must be "careful and cautious" with policy given inflation nearer to 3% than to 2% (Bloomberg)
ECONOMY
Vast majority of job growth in 2025 is linked to health care and hospitality sectors (Bloomberg)
Walmart CFO says disparity between the low-income cohort and the upper-income has grown in recent months (Yahoo Finance)
Mortgage rates climb for a third week, reaching 6.26% (Bloomberg)
Industry ETFs
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Commodities | ||
| Silver | 45.7935 | -1.41% |
| Steel | 75.815 | -1.58% |
| Lithium & Battery Tech | 61.29 | -2.95% |
| Copper Miners | 57.39 | -4.11% |
| Strategic Metals | 70.44 | -4.40% |
| Gold Miners | 72.98 | -4.46% |
| Uranium | 42.095 | -6.75% |
Industrials | ||
| Agriculture | 25.935 | -0.59% |
| Global Jets | 23.685 | -1.52% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 198.9079 | -2.08% |
| Construction | 88.88 | -2.20% |
Healthcare | ||
| Biotechnology | 164.24 | -0.59% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Cryptocurrency | ||
| Bitcoin | 13.52 | -3.50% |
Renewables | ||
| CleanTech | 52.62 | -3.02% |
| Solar | 45.67 | -4.09% |
| Hydrogen | 35.33 | -5.71% |
Technology | ||
| Sports Betting/Gaming | 19.765 | -1.57% |
| Cloud Computing | 21.89 | -1.57% |
| Video Games/eSports | 105.51 | -1.90% |
| E-commerce | 30.82 | -1.99% |
| Robotics & AI | 33.08 | -2.25% |
| Cybersecurity | 30.76 | -2.38% |
| FinTech | 28.17 | -2.59% |
| Electric Vehicles | 27.556 | -3.62% |
| Semiconductor | 268.1 | -4.80% |
ASX TODAY
ANZ Group’s share price may be worth watching after Chairman Paul O’Sullivan disclosed, after the close of trading yesterday, the purchase of 32,300 shares across two trades at $36.13 and $36.17 - a total outlay of $1.16 million, lifting his overall holding to 36,650 shares.
WA1 Resources announces Major Project Status has been granted by the Australian Government for the Luni Niobium Project
Lovisa Holdings reports global total sales for first 20 weeks of FY26 +26.2%y/y
WHAT TO WATCH TODAY
A busy day of annual general meetings (AGMs). WiseTech Global, Sims Limited, Tribeca Natural Resources, Coventry Group, Macquarie Technology, and Lovisa among the notable companies meeting with shareholders today.
BROKER MOVES
Charter Hall Group upgraded to Outperform from Hold; target up to $25.94 from $23.67 (CLSA)
Ampol upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target increased to $36 from $32 (Macquarie)
Viva Energy Group upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target increased to $3.20 from $2 (Macquarie)
Key Events
Stocks trading ex-dividend:
Fri 21 Nov: N1 Holdings (N1H) – $0.003, Orica (ORA) – $0.32
Economic calendar (AEDT):
12:30-1am: Speeches from various Fed officials
2am: Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations
