Market Wraps

Morning Wrap: ASX to rise, Goldman Sachs plans more layoffs, CSL trades ex-dividend

Mon 11 Sep 23, 8:30am (AEDT)

ASX 200 futures are 4 points or 0.05% higher to 7,153, as of 7:30am AEST.

Markets will be looking for some breathing room after a huge week filled with data disappointments from China, soaring oil prices, and a US Dollar that is at six month highs. In central bank land, the ECB meets this week and another 25 basis points hike is not actually all that priced in. US inflation figures (CPI and PPI) dominate the mid-week. Locally, all roads lead to Livewire Live tomorrow and the labour force report on Thursday.

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Mon 11 Sep 23, 8:30am (AEDT)

Name Value Chg %
Major Indices
S&P 500 4,457 +0.14%
Dow Jones 34,577 +0.22%
NASDAQ Comp 13,762 +0.09%
Russell 2000 1,852 -0.23%
Country Indices
Canada 20,075 -0.29%
China 3,117 -0.18%
Germany 15,740 +0.14%
Hong Kong 18,202 0.00%
India 66,599 +0.50%
Japan 32,607 -1.16%
United Kingdom 7,478 +0.49%
Name Value Chg %
Commodities (USD)
Gold 1,942.60 +0.01%
Iron Ore 116.90 -
Copper 3.715 -1.26%
WTI Oil 87.23 +0.41%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6385 -0.01%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (AUD) 40,549 +0.01%
Ethereum (AUD) 2,542 -0.74%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond 4.258 -0.05%
VIX 14 -3.89%

US Sectors

Mon 11 Sep 23, 8:30am (AEDT)

Sector Chg %
Energy +0.97%
Utilities +0.96%
Communication Services +0.35%
Financials +0.24%
Information Technology +0.21%
Consumer Staples +0.16%
Materials +0.12%
Consumer Discretionary +0.03%
Health Care -0.04%
Industrials -0.46%
Real Estate -0.63%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

SPX Fri 8 Sept 2023
A late rally was enough to eek out a gain - just. (Source: TradingView)

MARKETS

  • AAI bullish sentiment jumped 9.1pp to 42.2% in latest reading, above the historical average of 37.5% for the first time in four weeks.

  • Stocks finished higher in the US on very thin trading. Low volumes also noted in most of Europe, as traders await the ECB meeting.

  • Treasuries mixed with some curve flattening following Thursday's gains. Yields still higher on the week. 

  • The US Dollar index little changed though held onto solid gains for the week. 

  • Gold ended fractionally higher while Bitcoin futures finished up 0.1%. 

  • New York crude oil finished up 0.7%, capping off second-straight weekly gain.

STOCKS

  • Goldman Sachs preparing for another round of job cuts aimed at underperforming employees (FT)

  • Country Garden's upcoming bond payments raise doubts after it averted default earlier (Reuters)

  • Unions launch strike action at Chevron's Australian LNG facilities on Friday after talks failed to produce agreement (Reuters)

ECONOMY

  • Fed officials signal September pause but stress data-dependence (Bloomberg, FT)

  • Japan GDP revised down amid drags from consumption and capex (Bloomberg)

  • Poll shows ECB's hike-or-pause dilemma going down to the wire (Bloomberg, Reuters)

    • European rates market is pricing in a 40% chance of a 25bps hike - double the probability seen one week ago.

Industry ETFs

Mon 11 Sep 23, 8:30am (AEDT)

Description Last Chg %
Commodities
Uranium 24.5 +0.41%
Gold Miners 28.34 +0.21%
Steel 65.69 -0.18%
Silver 21.01 -0.19%
Strategic Metals 70.43 -0.86%
Copper Miners 36.67 -0.87%
Lithium & Battery Tech 57.17 -1.33%
Industrials
Agriculture 21.85 -0.23%
Global Jets 18.32 -0.27%
Construction 54.46 -0.38%
Aerospace & Defense 112.13 -1.05%
Healthcare
Cannabis 7.87 +4.10%
Biotechnology 126.85 -0.02%
Description Last Chg %
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 13.33 +0.23%
Renewables
Solar 55.57 +0.02%
CleanTech 11.68 -0.60%
Hydrogen 8.22 -2.03%
Technology
Sports Betting/Gaming 17.305 +0.73%
Cybersecurity 25.05 +0.32%
FinTech 21.4 -0.23%
E-commerce 18.72 -0.50%
Semiconductor 493.93 -0.52%
Video Games/eSports 53.15 -0.67%
Electric Vehicles 24.145 -0.72%
Robotics & AI 25.87 -1.07%
Cloud Computing 20.17 -1.13%

Deeper Dive

The earnings round trip

For all the talk about US earnings expectations being too high (or remaining too high in many cases), companies have found ways to upgrade their forecasts. Forward S&P 500 earnings forecasts are back at $238 for the next 12 months. And while the number may not matter, the context does.

As this chart from Ryan Detrick at Carson Group shows, we are back at the same levels since the end of June 2022.

S&P 500 Earnings Expectations Sept 8th 2023
Source: Carson Group

You can view this one of two ways. It's either a double top and a second cue that we're near a peak for the S&P 500. Or this really is a sign that corporates have been able to bat away any concerns over a recession and adjust their operations accordingly.

And yes, both can be true and can happen at the same time.

The reason that earnings expectations can go up is because there has been a positive revision to forward revenues. Put more simply, the percentage of companies which are suggesting revenues will go up in the coming 12 months is ticking higher. Bar COVID and the tech bubble of 2000, this is historically a signal for the next bull market (rather than the end of it).

Yardeni Revenue Expectations
Source: Yardeni Research

But before you get too excited, just remember that companies, on aggregate, are still trying to contend with rising interest expenses. That is, how much more it's costing for companies to finance their outstanding debt obligations. And as this chart from TS Lombard shows, the surge in expenses (particularly labour costs) has historically been a good portend for an economic recession.

TS Lombard Interest Expenses
Source: TS Lombard

Key Events

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

  • Trading ex-div: CSL (CSL) – $1.99, Hub24 (HUB) – $0.185, Chorus (CNU) – $0.20

    • See full list of ASX stocks and ETFs trading ex-dividend here

  • Dividends paid: Cyclopharm (CYC) – $0.005, Vicinity Centres (VCX) – $0.06

  • Listing: Novo Resources (NVO) at 12 pm

Economic calendar (AEST):

  • G20 meetings (all day)

Written By

Hans Lee

Content Editor

Hans is a Content Editor at Livewire Markets and Market Index. He created Signal or Noise and helps write the LW-MI Morning Wrap on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

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