Morning Wrap: ASX set to rise as US markets find footing amid benign inflation print

ASX 200 futures are up 18pts (+0.23%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• ASX set to rise after US markets find their footing

• Soft US inflation report calms market nerves

• Nasdas jumps 1% as traders snap up tech shares

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Thu 13 Mar 25, 8:44am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	5,599	+0.49%
Dow Jones	41,351	-0.20%
NASDAQ Comp	17,648	+1.22%
Russell 2000	2,026	+0.14%
Country Indices
Canada	24,423	+0.72%
China	3,372	-0.23%
Germany	22,676	+1.56%
Hong Kong	23,600	-0.76%
India	74,030	-0.10%
Japan	36,819	+0.07%
United Kingdom	8,541	+0.53%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	2,941.6001	+0.66%
Iron Ore	101.44	+0.39%
Copper	4.843	+1.04%
WTI Oil	67.71	+1.68%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.6322	+0.38%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	83,223	+0.38%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,001	-2.21%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.318	+0.70%
VIX	24.23	-9.99%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 endured another choppy session but closed higher (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished mostly higher, though S&P could not hold best levels from the open; index remains nearly 9% below its 19-Feb all time high

• Hedge funds slash bets on equities, cut bank borrowing amid latest surge in market volatility (FT)

• Multistrategy hedge funds forced to liquidate or trim some positions on trade war, inflation challenges (Bloomberg)

• Strategists warn of worsening technicals, coming 21-Mar triple witching, month-end portfolio rebalancing (Bloomberg)

• Traders increase Fed rate cut trades as angst over recession builds (Bloomberg)

• Goldman Sachs cuts S&P 500 year-end target and sharply raises forecasts for US credit spreads (Bloomberg)

• JPMorgan chief global economist sees 40% US recession chance and risks to 'exorbitant privilege' (Reuters)

STOCKS

• Google unveils AI models for robotics industry (Reuters)

• TSM said to have pitched Intel foundry JV to Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom (Reuters)

• Google in final talks to acquire AdHawk Microsystems, a maker of eye-tracking technology, for $115M (Bloomberg)

• Toyota considers exporting to US from UK to ease impact of tariffs (FT)

• Salesforce pledges to invest $1B into AI in Singapore over five years (CNBC)

• Disney's $1.5B investment in Epic Games last year part of broader push into new robot era (Axios)

• Spotify says it paid $10B in royalties last year following scrutiny from artists (FT)

• Defence company Rheinmetall reports record orders and profits in era of European rearmament (FT)

• Porsche slashes profit targets as demand for electric vehicles slows (Reuters)

• Puma stock sinks after profit warning and weak 2025 outlook (FT)

GEOPOLITICS & TRADE

• Canada announces new 25% counter tariff on over $20B of US-made items (Bloomberg)

• Mexico's Sheinbaum voices some optimism about Trump's likely tariff decisions, holding off on retaliation plans (Bloomberg)

• Amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations, Ukraine losing its foothold in Russia's Kursk region (Reuters)

• Trump admin's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports go into effect (NY Times); Lutnick says tariffs worth it (FT)

• Trump halts doubling of tariffs on Canada-made metals after Ontario suspends electricity price hikes (Bloomberg)

• Trump's trade policy/economic messaging rattles even some of his own advisers, triggers business concerns (WSJ)

• Factories feel pain from Trump's steel and aluminium tariffs (AP); automakers to be hit most (Bloomberg)

• EU unveils €26B countermeasures as Trump's steel and aluminium tariffs take effect (NY Times)

• China responds to Trump's tariffs, vows safeguarding and summons Walmart executives for talks (CNBC)

• White House rules out exemption for tariffs on Australia steel and aluminium (AFR)

• Security officials say Putin has no intention of compromising over land, peacekeepers, or Ukraine's neutrality (Bloomberg)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Bank of Canada cuts rates by 25 bp, as expected, to lowest since Jul-22 (FT)

• ECB President Lagarde says trade, defence, climate issues can amplify or counteract inflation forces (FT)

ECONOMY

• The US consumer price index increased 0.2% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.8% - lower than the respective Dow Jones estimates for 0.3% and 2.9%.

• Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon says headwinds from tariffs weighing on deal activity, CEOs looking for more certainty (Bloomberg)

• Stock-market stumbles may undermine consumer-spending resilience (Bloomberg)

• CEOs pare back post-election exuberance about US economic prospects (Axios)

• Japan wholesale inflation reaches 4.0% to keep BOJ rate hike chances alive (FT)

ASX TODAY

• Boss Energy to acquire 23.5M shares in Laramide Resources

• Activist shareholder group calls for investors to vote against reelection of Woodside directors - Australian Financial Review

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Can the bulls find their footing, like US markets did overnight, and arrest the recent slide?

• Tech and growth stocks will be in focus today, after US tech names caught a bid overnight

BROKER MOVES

• ASX upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan; target increased to $68 from $65

• Bega Cheese upgraded to Positive from Neutral at E&P; target is $6.

• a2 Milk Co. downgraded to Neutral from Positive at E&P; target is $7.99.

• Fletcher Building (FBU) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs; target remains $2.85.

• HMC Capital upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Jarden; target down to $8.65 from $9.95.

• Amplitude Energy upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets; target up to $0.28 from $0.23.

• Lovisa Holdings upgraded to Positive from Neutral at E&P; target down to $28.36 from $29.62.

Key events

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thurs 13 Mar: Bapcor (BAP) – $0.08, Bisalloy Steel Group (BIS) – $0.08, Count (CUP) – $0.018, Duratec (DUR) – $0.018, Embelton (EMB) – $0.15, Globe International (GLB) – $0.10, Inghams Group (ING) – $0.11, Joyce Corporation (JYC) – $0.105, Kogan.com (KGN) – $0.07, McMillan Shakespeare (MMS) – $0.71, Pepper Money (PPM) – $0.071, Perpetual (PPT) – $0.61, PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund (PGF) – $0.055, PWR Holdings (PWH) – $0.02, Regis Healthcare (REG) – $0.081, SRG Global (SRG) – $0.025, Summerset Group (SNZ) – $0.101, Thorney Opportunities (TOP) – $0.011, Vulcan Steel (VSL) – $0.02, Yancoal Australia (YAL) – $0.52.

• Fri 14 Mar: Ariadne Australia (ARA) – $0.005, CAR Group (CAR) – $0.385, Data#3 (DTL) – $0.131, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Wisetech Global (WTC) – $0.105.

• Mon 17 Mar: Austin Engineering (ANG) – $0.006, HUB24 (HUB) – $0.24, L1 Long Short Fund (LSF) – $0.063, Ramelius Resources (RMS) – $0.03, Saunders International (SND) – $0.02, SKS Technologies Group (SKS) – $0.01.

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Vicinity Centres (VCX), Stanmore Resources (SMR), Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

• Listing: Marimaca Copper Corp (13 March)

• Earnings: Premier Investments (PMV), Chalice Mining (CHN)

• AGMs: Westgold Resources (18 March)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• US - PPI MoM - 11:30 PM (tonight)