Morning Wrap: ASX set to fall amid further weaknes in US; Nasdaq closes in correction territory

In a nutshell:

• ASX set to slide further on negative lead from the US

• Nasdaq closes in correction territory despite Trump tariff delays

• Big night ahead with US non-farm payrolls, Powell speech

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 never traded in positive territory but finished off session low (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished lower, ending not far from worst levels.

• S&P 500 logged sixth straight absolute move over 1%, longest streak since Nov 2020, Nasdaq closed in correction territory

• Investors souring on several "Trump trades" (Axios)

• Europe continues to be beneficiary of shift away from MAGA trade (FT)

• This week's declines in groups including cyclicals, small caps suggest recession trade is back (WSJ)

• Oil prices for 2026 are beginning to approach lower levels that would threaten oil output growth (Bloomberg)

• Semiconductor slump deeper into bear market territory, options market pricing in further declines (Bloomberg)

• Fear replaces FOMO as cost of hedging Mag 7 downside soars (Sherwood)

• Planned surge in European fiscal spending, DeepSeek breakthrough driving shift away from US markets with European equities, euro and China tech big winners (Reuters)

• Earnings momentum shifting away from US and toward Europe and some of Asia (Bloomberg)

STOCKS

• Alibaba's AI reasoning model drives shares higher (Reuters)

• Microsoft has walked away from some of its commitments with cloud computing provider CoreWeave amid concerns about delivery issues and missed deadlines (FT)

• UK regulator targets Visa and Mastercard over fee hikes, proposes action to boost competition (FT)

• DHL to cut 8000 jobs in Germany amid profit decline, announced €6B share buyback (Reuters)

• Logitech announces $2B share buyback, confirms 2025 outlook, sets ambitious growth targets (Reuters)

• Volkswagen unveils strategy for €20,000 electric car, targeting EU market in 2027 (Reuters)

• Rio Tinto to invest $1.8B in Brockman iron ore hub expansion (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS & TRADE

• Trudeau says nothing to announce on tariffs but says Canada will be in a trade war for the foreseeable future (Reuters)

• IMF warns Canada and Mexico may face significant adverse economic impact if Trump's tariffs are sustained (Bloomberg)

• Boeing CEO warns that tariffs may drive up costs and disrupt the company's supply chain (Bloomberg)

• Treasury Secretary Bessent says US prepared to go "all in" on Russian, Iranian sanctions to help get a Ukraine truce (Bloomberg)

• Trump considering changes to NATO participation, including not defending members that don't meet defence spend threshold (NBC News)

• Trump administration considering tariff exemptions and carveouts for agriculture industry (Bloomberg, Reuters)

• Manufacturing, retail and food sector names warn of price pressures from Trump tariffs (FT)

• Walmart pressures Chinese suppliers to absorb Trump tariffs, faces resistance (Bloomberg)

• US wants India to eliminate tariffs on car imports as part of trade deal, but New Delhi reluctant to immediately make such aggressive concessions (Reuters)

• EU leaders to endorse massive defence spending boost amid Ukraine crisis (Reuters, FT)

• Zelenskiy forced to negotiate as US cuts off critical intelligence to Ukraine (Telegraph)

• Ukraine crisis exposes EU weakness as Trump seeks to exploit divisions (Politico)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed's Harker says risks to the economy are rising due consumers becoming more cautious and inflationary pressures rising (Bloomberg)

• ECB cuts by 25 bp, as expected, though bank makes a hawkish shift in tone (FT)

• Trump tariffs reignite debate over whether inflationary impact will be transitory (Bloomberg)

• Fed's Perli warns debt ceiling impasse could disrupt money markets (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY

• US mortgage rates fall for seventh straight week, biggest drop since September (Bloomberg)

• Goldman Sachs raises growth forecast for Germany and Eurozone on military spending boost (Reuters, Bloomberg)

• UK construction activity drops to pandemic-era lows, challenging Labour's economic plans (Bloomberg)

• Australia trade balance improves in Jan but lags forecasts (Investing.com)

ASX TODAY

• Goldman Sachs: Corporate Australia has just concluded “the most volatile reporting season ever”, with 20% of stocks moving +/-10% in their results.

• Macmahon Holdings awarded mining services contract by PT Citra Palu Minerals, expected to be worth ~A$317M over five years

• Queensland coal baron Chris Wallin offering A$200M bridge loan to Star Entertainment Group - The Australian 

• Brookfield's interest in Insignia Financial waning - The Australian

• Negotiations between De Grey Mining and native title body corporation around Greater Hemi Project 'strained' - Australian Financial Review

• Baker Hughes and Woodside Energy announce collaboration framework to develop small-scale Decarbonization solution utilizing Net Power (NPWR) platform

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Big round number at 8000 could be a key line in the sand for ASX 200 - will the bulls defend it?

• Oil remains below US$70 per barrel, likely to pressure energy names

• Gold down 0.3%, iron ore up 0.7% and holding around US$100 per tonne

BROKER MOVES

• Tyro Payments downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; target cut to 82c from $1.40

• Capricorn Metals downgraded to overweight from buy at Jarden; target increased however to $8.14 from $7.99

• Charter Hall Group downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan; target remains $18.50

• Harvey Norman upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies; target increased to $5.85 from A$4.75

• Viva Energy Group downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies; target cut to A$1.90 from A$3.30

• Bendigo & Adelaide Bank upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; target remains $11 

• National Australia Bank upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; target remains $37.50

• ARB Corp. downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; target cut to $39.54 from $51.20

Key events

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 7 Mar: Argo Global Listed Infrastructure (ALI) – $0.04, Ampol (ALD) – $0.05, Aussie Broadband (ABB) – $0.04, Viva Energy (VEA) – $0.039, PRL Global (PRG) – $0.02, Endeavour Group (EDV) – $0.125

• Mon 10 Mar: CSL (CSL) – $2.073, SGH (SGH) – $0.30, Naos Small Cap Opportunities (NSC) – $0.013, Naos Ex-50 Opportunities (NAC) – $0.015, Super Retail Group (SUL) – $0.32, Adairs (ADH) – $0.065, Iress (IRE) – $0.10, Perseus Mining (PRU) – $0.025, Nine Entertainment (NEC) – $0.035, COG Financial Services (COG) – $0.03, Blackwall (BWF) – $0.005, Generation Development (GDG) – $0.01

• Tues 11 Mar: Coronado Global (CRN) – $0.006, News Corp (NWS/NWSLV) – $0.112, Ive Group (IGL) – $0.095, CUE Energy (CUE) – $0.01, Qualitas (QAL) – $0.025, Helloworld Travel (HLO) – $0.08, Echelon Resources (ECH) – $0.013, Dusk Group (DSK) – $0.10, Qantas Airways (QAN) – $0.264

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Amotiv (AOV), GWA Group (GWA), Insurance Australia Group (IAG), JB Hi-Fi (JBH), Korvest (KOV), Microequities Asset Management Group (MAM).

• Listing: Siguiri Gold Corp (7 March), Marimaca Copper Corp (13 March)

• Earnings: Deep Yellow (DYL)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• China – Balance of Trade, Exports YoY, Imports YoY at 2:00 PM

• US - Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate 12:30 AM (tonight)