Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to tumble, S&P 500 suffers worst day since October, Gold soars past US$4,700

ASX 200 futures are down 49pts (-0.56%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished sharply lower, recording the worst session since last October

• Trump threatened tariffs on various European countries ahead of the Davos meeting

• Gold surged more than 3% to a record US$4,758/oz, silver also up almost 5% to US$94/oz

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gapped down and trended lower to close at worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks gapped down and spent most of the session trending lower, closing at worst levels

• Wall Street suffers worst session since October after Trump threatened tariffs on various European countries before high-level meeting in Davos (BBG)

• Gold notches record above $4,700/oz, silver hits all-time high amid trade war risks souring global sentiment (RT)

• “Sell America” trade back in full force as Treasuries and the dollar tumbled, VIX hits highest since November (BBG)

• Sudden Japan bond crash unleashes turmoil on trading floors, yields on the country’s 30-and-40 year bonds jumped more than 25 bps, the biggest daily move since Liberation Day tariffs (BBG)

• Bitcoin slid to its lowest level in more than a week and back below US$90,000 amid a broader exodus for risk assets (BBG)

• Citi's Raghavan says "sanity should prevail" on new tariff threats to Europe, expecting eventual compromise after initial shock (BBG)

STOCKS

• Citigroup CEO does not expect Congress to approval cap in credit card rates (RT)

• Coinbase’s Armstrong optimistic on crypto legislation despite pulling support earlier (BBG)

• Netflix shares dip ~3pc after hours amid spending boost in 2026, crimping profit (BBG)

• Netflix will now pay all cash for Warner Bros to keep Paramount at bay, gaining board support with amended offer (RT)

• Palantir inks HD Hyundai deal worth hundreds of millions, CEO bullish on Korea expansion (RT)

• Substack challenger beehiiv expects revenue to nearly double on newsletter boom (RT)

• QIA and Goldman Sachs to expand partnership with $25bn investment target (RT)

• Rare-earth magnet maker Noveon Magnetics raises $215m to boost domestic production (LI)

• US IT hardware stocks decline after Morgan Stanley warns of slowing demand (RT)

• Elliott Management takes stake in hypersonic flight company Stratolaunch (WSJ) 

TARIFFS

• Swedish exports to US could drop 28% if tariff threat is carried out, Board of Trade says (RT)

• Trump threatens 200% tariffs on French wines and champagnes after Macron rejects 'peace board' invite, escalating Greenland dispute tensions (POL)

• EU discusses up to $108bn in retaliatory tariffs on US goods in response to Trump's new levies tied to Greenland push (FT)

• Danish pension fund AkademikerPension is planning to exit US Treasuries by the end of the month (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Bessent says Fed Chair pick could come as soon as next week (BBG)

GEOPOLITICS

• Greenland tensions rise at Davos before Trump address (BBG)

• Macron blasts Trump trade strategy meant to ‘subordinate’ EU (BBG)

ECONOMY

• China announced incentives to spur investment and consumption, including a 500 billion-yuan loan guarantee facility to encourage private companies to borrow for growth (BBG)

• Chinese visitors to Japan slump 45% in December amid dispute (BBG)

• Lutnick expects US first quarter growth above 5% (RT)

• Germany to cut 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.0% (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Very quiet on the announcement front, a few quarterly reports from Rio Tinto, Evolution and Lynas, which we'll break down in the blog

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• A broad selloff: Very heavy overnight session, featuring all the bearish stuff (VIX spike, higher yields, crypto/growth/tech weakness etc). Plenty of overnight ETFs down 2-3%, while S&P 500 sectors like Communication Services, Financials, Discretionary and Tech all down more than 2%.

• Gold and silver: Massive overnight moves with gold up 3.5% to US$4,759 and silver up 5.0% to US$94. NYSE-listed Newmont shares rallied 4.2% (not much intraday movement after the gap) to close at fresh all-time highs.

• Holding up: Copper stocks held up relatively well overnight despite a 1.2% fall in copper prices. Lithium stocks also higher after Chinese lithium carbonate futures hit limit up (up 9% to 160,500 yuan a tonne) on Tuesday.

BROKER MOVES

Brokers data is currently pending. Check out the Evening Wrap for a full breakdown.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 21 Jan: None

• Thu 22 Jan: None

• Fri 23 Jan: Mirrabooka Investments (MIR) – $0.045

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE)

• Earnings: Telix (TLX)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:00 am: Westpac Leading Index (Dec)

• 6:00 pm: UK Inflation (Dec)