Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to snap three-day win streak, S&P 500 falls ahead of Fed meeting

In a nutshell:

• US stocks continued to fall after a two-day bounce

• Market remains on the backfoot ahead of Trump's reciprocal tariff decision on 2 April as well as tonight's Fed interest rate decision

• MinRes temporarily pauses Onslow, Myer reports 1H25 results

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, finished near worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US equities lower, spending most of the session around worst levels

• Skepticism surrounds the sustainability of the recent bounce, with weakness raising doubts amid uncertainty over Trump’s policies ahead of the 2-Apr reciprocal tariff announcement

• All the Mag 7 stocks are now lower year-to-date (BBG)

• Trump no longer sees stock market as end-all-be-all barometer of economy or useful indicator of voter sentiment (NYT)

LATEST BOFA SURVEY

• Allocation to US equities at 23% underweight, the lowest since June 2023 and marks the biggest contraction in exposure on record

• Cash levels bounced to 4.1% from 3.5%

• Reset driven by second biggest decline in global growth views on record

• Concerns include stagflation, trade war and the end of US exceptionalism

• Long Mag-7 remained the most crowded trade at 40%, down from 71% peak

STOCKS

• Tesla slides on fears of rising competition from innovative Chinese EV firms (BBG)

• Siemens announces it will cut 6,000 jobs in automation and EV charging units (BBG)

• Alphabet in talks to acquire cloud security firm Whiz for US$33bn (BBG)

• Amazon reportedly considering cutting 14,000 managerial positions by the end of March (WSJ)

• BYD shares climb to record high after unveiling vehicle lineup with five minute charging capability (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• BOJ expected to hold on Wednesday with focus instead on Ueda's signaling of rate outlook (BBG)

• RBA remains more cautious than market on prospect of further policy easing (RT)

TRADE & GEOPOLITICS

• Trump administration weighs individualised simplified tariff rates; considers value-added taxes in tariff decisions (WSJ)

• Treasury Secretary Bessent says countries that negotiate and bring down trade barriers may avoid getting hit with "the tariff wall" (RT)

• Canada PM Carney concedes limits to how much Canada can match US tariffs dollar for dollar (BBG)

• China set to tighten export curbs on EV battery, chip material technology (NK)

• China halts LNG imports from US; renews pork and poultry export registrations (RT)

• Putin and Trump agree to energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine; more talks needed for broader truce (RT)

ECONOMY

• Canada’s inflation unexpectedly spikes to 2.6% in February vs. 2.2% ests as sales tax break ends (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Lottery Corp Chairman Doug McTaggart discloses purchase of ~25k shares, beneficially owns ~67k shares after the transaction (TLC)

• Mineral Resources advises haulage on Onslow Iron haul road has been temporarily paused while the company engages with WorkSafe SA after the rear of two trailers of a road t rain tipped onto their side on 17-Mar (MIN)

• Myer reports 18% fall in 1H25 NPAT to $42.4m (ests $38m), Group sales for the first five weeks of the second half down 2.6% amid cycling of major events (e.g. Taylor Swift concerns) and timing of key promotional activity, trading conditions remain mixed with consumers continuing to be cautious (MYR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• More weakness to come: The market’s three-day winning streak appears poised to end. While a touch of weakness is tolerable, an oversold market that can’t be trusted raises concerns. Bearish pressures persist, driven by Trump’s looming 2-Apr reciprocal tariff decision, alongside the absence of significant capitulation and negative earnings revisions. Adding to the mix is tonight’s Fed decision, with a 99% chance of a rate hold per CME’s FedWatch tool. Investors will be laser-focused on the Fed’s updated economic projections and Powell’s press conference. Previews suggest lower growth and higher inflation forecasts, though two rate cuts are still anticipated for the year.

• Gold strength: Bullion spot prices surged past US$3,000 overnight, ending the session 1.12% higher at US$3,034. In contrast, the Gold Miners ETF edged up just 0.6%, mirroring broader market softness.

BROKER MOVES

• JB Hi-Fi upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target $91 (JPM)

• QBE upgraded to 'High-Conviction Outperform' from Outperform; target up to $25 from $23.30 (CLSA)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 19 Mar: Auckland International Airport (AIA) – $0.056, Brisbane Broncos (BBL) – $0.02, Briscoe Group Australasia (BGP) – $0.091, CTI Logistics (CLX) – $0.05, Enero Group (EGG) – $0.015, Genesis Energy (GNE) – $0.064, Helia Group (HLI) – $0.69, LGI (LGI) – $0.012, Macmahon Holdings (MAH) – $0.006, Peet (PPC) – $0.028, Pepper Money (PPM) – $0.071, Perenti (PRN) – $0.03, Shriro Holdings (SHM) – $0.02.

• Thu 20 Mar: The a2 Milk Company (A2M) – $0.065, Cochlear (COH) – $2.15, Earlypay (EPY) – $0.001, K & S Corporation (KSC) – $0.08, Kelsian Group (KLS) – $0.08, Service Stream (SSM) – $0.025, Spark New Zealand (SPK) – $0.108, Supply Network (SNL) – $0.32, Tourism Holdings Rentals (THL) – $0.02

• Fri 21 Mar: Latitude Group (LFS) – $0.03, Vita Life Sciences (VLS) – $0.065

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Alcoa Corp (AAI), Accent Group (AX1), Air New Zealand (AIZ), ASX (ASX), Bell Financial Group (BFG), Computershare (CPU), Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI), Embark Early Education (EVO), EVT (EVT), HiTech Group Australia (HIT), Imdex (IMD), Lynch Group (LGL), MA Financial Group (MAF), Maxiparts (MXI), Pengana Capital Group (PCG), REA Group (REA), ResMed (RMD), Shaver Shop Group (SSG), Sims (SGM), Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

• Listing: None

• Earnings: Myer (MYR)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 2:00 pm: BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Consensus: Hold at 0.5%)

• 5:00 am: Fed Interest Rate Decision (Consensus: Hold at 4.5%)

• 5:30 pm: Fed Press Conference